自從蘇聯末期和中國的關係正常化以來，雙邊政治上的發展就不斷的提升，其中歷經了「建設性夥伴關係」、「戰略協作夥伴關係」，後來更簽訂「中俄睦鄰友好合作條約」，更進一步深化了兩國各方面的合作。在國際和區域上，也有著共同利益密切合作。 雙邊貿易方面，葉爾欽時期和普亭時期的兩國貿易往來有截然不同的結果。整個葉爾欽時期俄中貿易每年從未超過100億美元，但普亭時期不但突破百億美元大關，更在未來設定雙邊貿易預期目標達到600－800億美元，朝向另一個高峰邁進，雙邊貿易顯然增溫不少。因此本論文探究兩位總統時期對中國貿易政策的不同與比較。此外，雖然俄中雙邊關係到目前為止的發展良好，但是雙邊貿易合作上仍然顯的失色不少，也是本論文的觀察重點。 但是可以預見的未來，俄中貿易關係仍然會有所成長，特別是俄羅斯認為其國家利益在東方，按照目前的情況來看，俄羅斯東部地區尚未完全融入亞洲的經濟整合當中，兩國的經貿合作仍有進一步改善的空間。隨著兩國的經濟實力都不斷提升的狀況下，兩國各自的經濟發展也尚未達到目標，因此雙邊的經貿關係仍會持續進行，並有可能產生更多雙邊合作的發展，共同創造在未來國際經濟新秩序當中佔有一席之地。俄羅斯應該拋開過去對中國的成見，並努力實現其走向東方的外交政策，才能掌握中國經濟蓬勃發展的機遇，進而帶動本身經濟的成長，為俄羅斯東部創造更有利於開發的條件，這將是俄羅斯未來經濟發展重要的關鍵道路。 / Since the late period of USSR, the relationship between China and Russia has been promoting continuously. The “Sino-Russia Treaty of Friendship” enhances and deepens cooperation of both sides. Russia and China share common interest and cooperate together closely in international community and also in regions. As for bilateral trade aspect, the trade relationship of China and Russia has significant differences under Yeltsin and Putin period. Under Yeltsin period, the Sino-Russia trade has never over 10 billion US dollars annually, however, under Putin’s regime, annually the invest is over 10 million and also set up a goal of 60-80 billion US dollars annually, it is obvious that the both side trade relationship has been “heated up” a lot. Besides, although the bilateral relationship of China and Russia had a good progress, the trade cooperation of both sides still has space for improvement. This is one of the main issues which are observed in this research. According to current situation, the trade cooperation of both countries still has spaces for improvement because the east region of Russia has not been completely integrated into part of economic integration in Asia. However, the author contend that due to economic powers of China and Russia have been growing continuously and their economic developments have not yet reached the goals, so trade cooperation of both countries will undergo consistently and generate more opportunities for further cooperation to create an important role in new international economic orders in the future. The author concludes that Russia should abandon bias toward China and realize its foreign policy which is “walk into the East”. By doing this, Russia could grasp the best moment during prosperous economic development in China. Furthermore, it will help Russia overall economic growth and create more beneficial conditions for eastern Russia development.

本文以葉爾欽時期的派系政治為分析中心，認為派系是延續了過去的政治菁英文化傳統，不但在新的俄羅斯民主制度下繼續存活下來，還進一步成為主導整個俄羅斯發展的重要行動者。本文的研究發現主要有三方面：第一項發現是派系政治是分析葉爾欽時期政治的一個具有解釋力的模式。第二項發現是建構一個分析葉爾欽派系互動規則與架構，在此架構中建立一個評估派系政治穩定程度的指標，運用這個指標來分析俄羅斯派系政治的發展與演進。第三項發現是派系政治的穩定程度與俄羅斯的政經發展具有密切的關係存在，亦即俄羅斯的派系互動愈不穩定，俄羅斯的政治也隨之愈不穩定、人事互動愈頻繁，政策產出更加不確定，尤其是經濟政策隨著派系勢力的上上下下而來回擺盪變動。

本論文把論述重心放在「比較」上，試圖去認識三位國家領導人對於政治改革理念以及改革實踐的不同之處，也希望透過這樣的比較，釐清三位領導人的改革各自爲俄羅斯政治體制帶來什麼不一樣的影響，以及他們各自的政治選擇又是帶領俄羅斯朝哪個方向前進。其次，我們還要釐清國家領導人的性格和意志等因素是如何影響制度運行。俄羅斯的超級總統制(Super-Presidentialism)將領導人的個人因素突出，這樣的體制對俄羅斯的民主有什麼影響。最後，本論文將探討俄羅斯獨有的政治文化是如何影響三位領導人的政治選擇和發展。 / This article’s main purpose is comparison, it tries to tell the different side of political innovation and the way it practices of 3 Russian leaders. It also clarifies the 3 leader’s reformation has been done to Russian political system separately and which direction their political decision has brought Russia into. Moreover, we will point out how the leaders’ will and personality effect the system. Super- Presidentialism of Russia highlight leader’s individual factor, what kind of effect the Super- Presidentialism does to Russian democracy. Finally, the essay will discuss how do the 3 leader’s political decision and development has been effected by Russian unique political culture.

俄羅斯與阿根廷的經濟改革在「華盛頓共識」下揭開了序幕。1991年蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯的政治由一黨專政走向多元的民主，而經濟體制也從過去的社會主義所有制轉向市場經濟體制發展。相對阿根廷則是在1983年軍政府的威權官僚統治被推翻後，開始施行民主政治。而國內的經濟也在1984年開始從過度干預的市場向自由放任的資本主義市場移動。但在兩國國內經濟改革的過程中，國會及西方國際金融組織的影響為經濟改革帶來莫大的變數。因此本文旨在透過剖析國會、國家政府、和西方國際金融組織三者之間的互動與關係，分析穩定化經濟政策的產出、施行的過程、及所帶來的結果。本文也著重地探討和穩定化相互關連與影響的通貨膨脹與西方外援這兩個因素，探究權力均衡、穩定化、通貨膨脹、經濟表現、與西方外援對俄羅斯與阿根廷國家經濟轉型過程所產生的影響。 本論文主要採用國會、國家政府、與西方國際金融組織，權力均衡的研究途徑，透過選舉週期與經改週期的因素影響，探討俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型的過程與發展。因為受到上述三邊角力的影響，穩定化(stabilization)成了國內經濟改革最主要的問題，因此本文著重在經濟改革穩定化層面的發展，及與穩定化息息相關，相互影響的因素-通貨膨脹與西方外援，提出更進一步的剖析。在這樣的架構下，本論文第一章除了說明研究動機與目的、研究架構、章節安排外，還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻，並指出過去文獻的優缺點，以做為論文研究之基礎。第二章敘述俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟改革前的歷史背景，探討前蘇聯與阿根廷軍政府為之後經濟改革所留下的伏筆；第三章闡述俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型穩定化之成效、透過國內政治週期對兩國國家領導人：葉爾欽(Boris Yeltsin)、普欽(Vladimir Putin)、阿芳辛(Raúl Alfonsín)、美能(Carlos Menem)、與德拉魯阿(Fernando De la Rua)所產生的影響為論述的焦點；第四章則論述通貨膨脹與西方外援對兩國國內經濟改革的相互影響，並指出它們在穩定化政策執行下的表現，及如何再次回歸影響到穩定化制程的發展；第五章為結論。 本論文所得到的結論是國會、國家政府、與國際金融組織的權力均衡決定了俄羅斯與阿根廷國家經濟轉型穩定化的走向，而穩定的經濟政策是帶動國家經濟成長的關鍵。目前在普欽強勢的帶領之下，俄羅斯已逐漸擺脫金融風暴的陰霾，而阿根廷在新總統基什內爾(Nestor Kirchner)的領導下，是否有辦法帶領阿根廷的經濟走向復甦與成長，還有待時間的考驗。 / Under the “Washington consensus”, Russia and Argentina have started their economic transition. The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. In contrast in 1983, after the demolition of Argentina Military Dictatorship Bureaucratic authoritarianism regime, the country started to apply democracy. And soon, in 1984, Argentina’s economy started to move from over control market toward free individual capitalism market. However, in the economic reform process of both countries, the Parliament and Western International Financial Organizations have brought immense impact on their economic transitions. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interactive relationships among Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations, and also to study the formulation of the economic stabilization programs, the application process, and the conclusion. Also, in the thesis we will discuss inflation and western aid factors that have close relationship and mutual influences with the stabilization programs, so to find out the impacts and the developments brought by balance of power, stabilization, inflation, economic performance, and western aids in the process of economic transition. In this thesis, we adopt the Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations’ balance of power as the research approach, through the impact of election’s cycle and economic transition’s cycle, we discuss the process and developments of Russian and Argentina’s economic transition. Because the influences brought by above authorities, stabilization becomes the most important concern for countries which are performing economic transition. As so, the thesis is focused on stabilization sphere, and the factors of inflation and western aids that brought mutual influences to stabilization. Under this framework, the first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research framework, chapter arrangements, and the advantages and disadvantages of relevant literature. The second chapter describes Russian and Argentina’s historical background before the economic transition, and we also analyze the hints left by the Soviet Union and Argentina military government. The third one, we focus on the effects of stabilization program in Russian and Argentina economic transition, through the interaction of election’s cycle and both countries’ leader: Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin, Raúl Alfonsín, Carlos Menem, Fernando De la Rua. The fourth chapter analyzes the interaction among inflation and western aids with country’s economic transition, we also point out the inflation and western aids’ performances under different periods of stabilization program, and how they come back to influence the formulation of the stabilization program. The fifth one is the conclusion. We come to conclusion that the balance of power among the Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations decide the tendency of Russian and Argentina’s economic stabilization, and the key to bring the country economic growth is to settle a stable economic policy. Now, under Putin’s strong leadership, Russian has started to get over from the shadow of 1998 crisis. But Argentina with the guidance of the new president Nestor Kirchner, whether the country will be lead to a revival and growth way or not, it will still remain under the question.

1991年底蘇聯的解體，使得俄羅斯的政治體制由一黨專政走向多元民主，其經濟體制也從過去以社會主義所有制轉變為市場經濟體制。在俄羅斯進行政經轉型的初期，國際貨幣基金會（International Monetary Fund；以下均簡稱為IMF）以龐大的金援為後盾，介入俄羅斯的政經發展，對俄羅斯的制度抉擇有著深遠的影響。因此，本文旨在透過剖析IMF1992年至1999年間援俄計劃的形成過程、內容、俄羅斯決策當局對IMF援俄計劃的回應，以及影響俄羅斯決策當局的因素，探究IMF援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。 本論文主要採用「系統理論」(the Systems Theory)的研究途徑，探討IMF的援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。其中，以「議價模式」(the Bargaining Model)說明在IMF援俄計劃的形成過程中，IMF的組織成員，主導IMF政策走向的美國、英國等已開發國家，以及俄羅斯當局三者的角力過程。最後，再以「克里姆林宮政治研究途徑」(Kremlin Politics approach)敘探俄羅斯決策當局回應IMF要求時的考量因素。在此研究架構下，本論文第一章除說明研究動機與目的、研究架構與途徑、研究限制外，還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻，並指出過去文獻所未考量之處，以做為論文研究之基礎；第二章續述IMF的運作概況，探討影響IMF援俄計劃形成的可能因素；第三章闡述俄羅斯的初始條件、IMF援俄計劃的內容、俄羅斯當局的回應，以及IMF援俄計劃所帶來的成效與弊端；第四章則論述1992年至1999年俄羅斯的政經發展，並指出IMF的援俄計劃對俄羅斯政經發展的影響；第五章為結論。 本論文的結論是，雖然俄羅斯的政經發展會相互影響，但是對俄羅斯的決策當局而言，政治的穩固比經濟發展路線的選擇更為重要。IMF在1992年至1999年間許多關鍵時刻對葉爾欽表示支持，使葉爾欽在多次的政爭中仍得以保有政權；而葉爾欽為獲得IMF的金援，自然會推動其所要求的市場經濟體制。因此，儘管俄羅斯的經濟改革迭有波折，但是市場經濟體制在俄羅斯生根已是無庸置疑。 / The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. During the initial period of Russia’s political and economical transformation, International Monetary Fund, backed up by the huge-amount loans, interfered with Russia’s political and economical developments, giving impact upon the choice of institutions in Russia. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interacting relationships between IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments, by analyzing the forming process and content of IMF’s aid program toward Russia from 1992-9, the response of the Russian authorities toward IMF’s aid program, and the factors that influenced the Russian authorities to make their policies. The thesis adopts the Systems Theory as its research approach to discuss the interacting relationships between the IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments. Meanwhile, I use the “Bargaining Model” to explain the wrestling process among IMF’s staff and personnel, the countries dominating IMF’s direction of policies, like the US and the UK, and the Russian authorities. Finally, I further focus on the factors that the Russian authorities considered in response to IMF’s demands. The first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research frameworks and approaches, the research restrictions, and the relevant literature. The second one mentions the general situation of IMF and the factors that may influence the forming of the IMF’s aid program toward Russia. The third one specifies the initial conditions in Russia, the content of the IMF’s aid program, the Russian authorities’ responses, and the effect and the problems that the IMF’s aid program may bring out. The fourth one points out the impact that the IMF’s aid program put upon the Russia’s political and economical developments. The fifth one is the conclusion. The conclusion is that though politics and economy influence each other in Russia, the stable political situation is more important than the choice of economic developments for the Russian authorities. IMF’s support for Boris N. Yeltsin on many key occasions from 1992 to 1999, allowed him to retain his power. And Yeltsin naturally promoted the market economy that IMF required for getting its loan. Therefore, despite the continuing difficulties in Russia’s economic reform, it’s no doubt that the market economy has taken root in Russia.

擁有廣闊領土且豐富資源的俄羅斯在帝俄及蘇聯時期曾經在歐洲和世界政治社會中扮演著主要角色，左右世界的走向。而其保守與激進相融的風格，對人類歷史文明亦造成深遠的影響。 所以俄羅斯聯邦繼承了蘇聯，雖然國力不如從前，仍具有世界大國的條件，再加上經濟、政治日趨穩定；但是今年（二○○三年）十二月國家杜馬選舉的結果；及選前起訴媒體大亨及逮捕石油大亨的種種事情，對於俄羅斯政治制度重返共產專制，不免有很大的想像空間，所以會關心莫斯科軍對亞太地區軍事安全戰略的形成與未來發展趨勢，因為克里姆林宮的政策走向，勢必會對亞太地區產生決定性和根本性的改變。 筆者是從有限理性決策模式的途徑來從事研究，並從決策中歸納出俄羅斯軍事安全思想具體內容。全文區分軍事安全思想形成與亞太軍事安全戰略核心價值和目標及對亞太地區影響等三大部分。 經研究後獲致其軍事安全核心價值為維護主權、疆界完整不容侵犯和控制周邊領域確保安全及提昇國際地位與聲望等三項，因而產生亞太安全目標為亞太大國地位的塑造與鞏固、和平穩定週邊環境的創造與維護、保持具備足夠防衛能力的軍事武力、營造多邊與雙邊兼容的安全機制等四個目標。並就與亞太國家交往和區域在安全、經濟合作等二部分來說明其影響所在。 研究發現有：俄羅斯具有亞太大國的必要條件。二、經濟因素對俄羅斯軍事安全戰略舉足輕重的影響。三、善用集體安全機制來達成安全目標。四、中國崛起對俄羅斯構成相當程度的心理威脅等四點。同時預測俄羅斯聯邦軍事安全戰略未來發展為：仍將把列為國家政策的重要地位。普京會繼續維持現有防禦性的國防政策，以軍事為經濟發展服務，伺其國力恢復強盛，先成為亞太大國，再向世界大國目標邁進。而莫斯科政局穩定性、國內經濟發展情況、與美國或中國的關係發展情況、國際情勢將影響未來發展走勢。

本論文主要在探討俄羅斯聯邦於一九九一年至一九九七年間，所推行的各項經濟改革政策及其經濟實況。本論文嘗試著以政治經濟學的角度來剖析俄羅斯經濟改革與政治發展間的互動，以宏觀的手法探討俄羅斯經濟改革政策，並分析影響俄羅斯經濟日後發展的因素，從而預測俄羅斯日後政治經濟發展的趨向。 本論文共分為伍章: 第壹章為緒論，敘述本論文之研究動機、研究途徑、研究架構、研究範圍與研究限制：第貳章探討俄羅斯經濟改革的背景與特徵。本章主要先論述蘇聯傳統社會主義計劃經濟的形成以及其特徵，並依時間順序介紹蘇聯時期歷次的社會主義經濟改革的大要。先了解整個社會主義計劃經濟的特徵與弊端，然後再探討俄羅斯經濟改革的背景與必要性，以及俄羅斯經濟改革的特徵；第參章剖析俄羅斯經濟改革的主要內容，首先探討俄羅斯經濟改革理論的演進，描述俄羅斯經濟改革策略由蓋逢時期的激進、快速的「休克療法」演變成契爾諾米爾丁時期的緩進、折衷的經濟改革策略的演變過程。然後詳細地論述俄羅斯經濟體制各領域的改革內容，包括：所有制變革、價格自由化、金融體制改革、社會保護制度改革、財稅體制改革、貿易體制改革、住屋制度變革、以及農業與上地私有化方面的改革措施，木章最後再論述契爾諾米爾丁於一九九六年底所提出修正的經濟改革措施，以瞭解今後俄羅斯經濟改革的方向；第肆章論述俄羅斯經濟改革實行結果與影響，提出其經濟改革之結果與影響、以及在俄羅斯經濟改革過程中不斷出現的兩難困境，與俄羅斯日後推行市場經濟的阻力；第伍章為本論文之結論，本章主要是論述俄羅斯經濟改革的前景，並在此章節中提出筆者個人的研究發現與建議未來俄羅斯經濟改革的改善途徑。 在研究過程中筆者發現，俄羅斯的經濟改革往往與俄羅斯政治的權力鬥爭相互影響。經濟改革並非是單純的經濟改革，往往是政治因素左右了俄羅斯的經濟政策走向；而政治勢力的消長，亦因為經濟表現的優劣而隨之消長。尚有相當多的因素影響到俄羅斯的總體經濟表現，諸如：社會治安因素、外援、通貨膨脹等等。因此，政治的考量打亂了經濟改革的原有計劃除此之外．加上上述各方面的影響之下，俄羅斯的經濟成長根本無法如預期般地好轉，即使時至今日也難以紓緩。 / The main role of this thesis is the Economic Reform of Russian Federation, from 1991 to 1997. This thesis applies the Kremlin politics approach and the historical approach to analyze the Russian economic reform program, and discusses the impact of domestic and international political factors on reform from a political economy perspective. There are five chapters in this thesis. Chapter One is introduction ,which include the problems, purpose, scope and the approaches of this thesis. Chapter Two is the motives of Russia economic reform. Chapter Three is the contents of Russia economic reform from 1991 to 1997.Chapter Four is the results and impacts of Russia economic reform. Chapter Five is conclusion of this thesis. After discuss this thesis, the author find that reform has resulted in a large slide in living standards, a big jump in inflation, and critical deviation in the distribution of the wealth between rich and poor. The basic reason is that the Russian government has not been able to take positive control of economic activity, as the process of privatization and the redistribution of national wealth has created mistakes. National enterprises have fallen under the hands of bureaucratic and managerial apparatus from the beginning of the privatization. Economic reform has also involved some problems, including a huge debts, capital outflow, increasing crime, growing unemployment, and heavy export dependence on raw materials and energy. Although the policy of economic reform has been revised several times, it still has not deviated from its basic design. Official economic developmental strategy thus seems to have a gap with the factual situation, with the role of the government not yet strengthened. In the next ten years, it will therefore be difficult for the Russian economy to quickly develop, though it possesses tremendous potential and resources. After reviewing the political and economic developments of Russia from 1991 to 1997, it is determined that political factors and President Yeltsin himself are the major culprit that forestalled the realization of reform goals.ln short, political considerations disrupted the original reform plan. As a result, Russia from 1991 to 1997suffered from galloping prices and declining production that have not significantly abated to this date.

本論文主要在探討俄羅斯東正教政教關係之演變。在研究方法上，主要依據”政教關係”的理論以及相關的文獻分析來進行之。本文的架構以教會過去的歷史、俄羅斯官方的意識型態以及政府的宗教政策之演變為主軸，據此來探討一九九一年底之後，俄羅斯政教關係之變化。 本論文共分五章。第一章說明本文之研究方法與架構。第二章則將帝俄時期至一九八五年以前的俄羅斯政教關係的歷史背景作一簡單的敘述。一九一七年以前，東正教一直是俄羅斯的國教。與其他的教派相比，東正教會享有許多特權，例如，它得以免除稅務以及公民應盡之義務。在蘇聯時期，東正教會喪失原來獨享之特權並且遭受到殘酷之宗教迫害；不過這種情況到戈巴契夫上台以後有了轉變。 本文第三章首先題到戈巴契夫在蘇聯境內實行政治與經濟領域之革新，這些政策伴隨官方意識型態之轉變，導致政府宗教政策的大幅修正，政教關係也因此有所突破。此時俄羅斯東正教會再度受到重視，並且可以進行它的復興工作。在蘇聯解體之後，東正教在俄羅斯的政治上依然扮演著重要的角色。在第四章裏我們將探討教會與俄羅斯政府之間如何相互影響。第五章將對本文作一個總結，並討論俄羅斯政教關係可能的發展方向，以及俄羅斯東正教之未來前景。 / This dissertation focuses on the changes in the relationship between the Russian government and the Russian Orthodox Church. The methodology for this thesis is based on the “Politics-Religion Mutuality”Theory and the analysis of documents pertaining to the two related parties. The framework of this study is based upon three essential topics: the history of the church, the evolution of Russian ideology and the religious policies of Russian government.Analyzing these three topics we may find out how the Russia politics-religion relationship changes after the end of 1991. There are five parts to this thesis. Each part has a chapter devoted specifically to it. In chapter one the methodology and the framework of this dissertation will be expounded. In chapter two the author gives an outline of the history of the relationship between the state and the church. Before 1917 the Russian Orthodox Church was the state church of Russia. Being the official church, the Russian Orthodox Church had many privileges as compared with other denominations, for example, it was exempt from assessments and civic obligations. In the Soviet Union the Russian Orthodox Church lost its monopolistic power and suffered brutal religious persecution. This, however changed when M. Gorbachev headed the government. Chapter three, the turning point, shows the new policies in political and economic domains within the USSR enacted enforced by Gorbachev. These changes to the official ideology also led to large-scale changed in religious policy. At this time the Russian Orthodox Church became highly regarded again in the USSR and could proceed with its own revival. After the disintegration of the USSR, the Russian Orthodox Church was still highly regarded and played an important role in Russia's politics. In chapter four we investigate how the church and the government influenced each other. In chapter five we conclude with a summery, the possible development of mutuality between the Russian Orthodox Church and the prospects of the Russian Orthodox Church.

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