金融海嘯發生後，全球經濟在衍生性商品包裝下應聲受挫，反映過去主要國家中央銀行過度強調物價穩定，放任金融創新，對房貸疏於管制；因此當房價崩跌時，銀行的資產品質急遽惡化，銀行業因而嚴重受創，導致金融體系無法正常運作，衝擊實體經濟；失業率攀高，民眾付不出房貸、房屋被法拍，最後陷入金融與經濟不穩定相互影響的惡性循環。 影響房地產的因素眾多，可歸納為：（一）經濟因素，如所得、利率等；（二）社會文化因素，如人口成長率；（三）住宅條件，如交通的便捷性；（四）政治因素政局是否穩定，將影響社會大眾購置不動產的意願；（五）房屋本身特質，如坪數、建材、樓層等；及（六）政府政策因素，如貨幣政策、都市計畫管制，選擇性信用管制等。 由於經濟快速成長與國民所得激增，國內游資充裕物價高漲，帶動台灣房地於民國62至63年、68至69年、76至78年三次景氣循環達到高峰。也因此，民國78年2月28日，央行宣布實施選擇性信用管制，強制金融機構限定土地貸款成數、期限，首開房地產市場受金融管制之先例。 時至98年第2季金融風暴後，由於各國寬鬆貨幣政策陸續發酵，我國遺贈稅率調降至10%，及簽署金融監理合作備忘錄（MOU）、海峽兩岸經濟架構協議（ECFA）等兩岸經貿利多，吸引外資回流，陸資來台投資意願，再加上股市大漲創造的財富效果，推動資金行情加溫，帶動房市價量俱增。 民國99年，全球景氣持續復甦，我國出口及廠商大幅擴張，及全球需求增溫，推升原油等國際原物料行情，房價持續飆漲。央行遂於民國99年6月24日除調升重 貼現率、擔保放款融通利率及短期融通利率，並訂定「中央對金融機構辦理特定地區購屋貸款業務規定」，自6月25日實施，適用地區為新增放款過度集中在台北市及新北市10個縣轄市。 本研究針對本次特定地區信用管制措施，財政部一連串「打炒房」政策效果逐漸彰顯之際，擬藉由央行、金管會銀行局統計報表，分析銀行授信策略如放款科目、對象別及其他授信結構的差異、專家學者論述所集結論證研究，進行Difference in Difference方法的應用，探討房貸緊縮下公、民營銀行授信差異，提出適切論證以提供政府政策執行參考。 / The financial tsunami caused by US subprime mortgage crisis devastated the global economy and revealed the overemphasis of major central banks on price stability, overrated financial innovation, and the willful regulation of the mortgage. Hence, the quality of banks’ assets deteriorated rapidly and resulted in the breakdown of the financial system, leaving a long-lasting impact on the real economy. With unemployment rising, house owners lost their ability to sustain the over-priced mortgage. The end results are way too many foreclosed houses initiated a vicious cycle of financial and economic instability. Real estate markets are often affected by many factors which we summarize as follows: (1) Economic factors, such as income, interest rates, etc; (2) Social and cultural factors, such as population growth rate; (3) Housing conditions, such as the convenience of transportation; (4) The political factors, whether the political situation is stable would affect the willingness of communities in purchasing real property; (5) The characteristics of the properties, such as floor numbers, building materials and so on; and (6) The policies of government, such as monetary policy, urban planning control, discretional credit control, and etc. The thesis aims to study Taiwan’s real estate market with the above mentioned factors, in particular with focus on the effects of credit controls. The central bank declared the first credit control policy on February 28th, 1989 to regulate financial institutions in the forms of capped land loans and strict due dates. Until the second quarter of financial crisis in 2009 and owing to the quantity easing of many countries worldwide, Taiwan’s central bank again resorted to the tightening credit control policy tools in setting "central to financial institutions to handle specific areas housing loan business requirement" effective from June 25, 2010. Areas included Taipei City, New Taipei City, and other 10 cities in Taiwan were deemed as the housing bubble zones. This study uses data from the Statistical Reports of the central bank and FSC Banking Bureau to analyze the banks’ counter-credit-policy responses, such as lending subjects, objects, and other differences in credit structure. Difference-in-Difference approach is used to explore the differences of credit rationing between state-owned (or state-controlled) banks and private banks. Policy recommendation is provided in Chapter V in reminding the regulators to pay special attention to the non-universal effect of a universal credit control measure.

在政府提倡金融自由化、國際化的引導下，台灣金融管制解放，金融機構擺脫過去寡占經營的局面紛紛林立，為了因應市場競爭，各種金融產品不斷推陳出新，放款限制亦不斷寬鬆，造成市場一片蓬勃。然而從1997年金融危機的發生，導致企業跳票的個案中，使我們注意到企業在自由化時期藉籌措資金之便，大行金錢投機遊戲，以股票質押再行借款投資。此種高度的財務槓桿操作，一旦面臨危機衝擊，抵押品價值下滑，勢必發生連鎖反應而危及營運。 本研究從市場資訊不對稱觀點說明，公司抵押品價值（淨值）下滑，對借款者的債務保障價值減少，加速資訊不對稱之二大問題───道德危機和逆選擇，促使經濟雪上加霜，引發全面性危機。本研究的實證結果如下： 1.台灣自1990年代後，紛紛以股票質押借款，放款隨股價變動而有循環性調整，銀行抵押放款捲入股價波動，脆弱的金融體系一旦因應景氣情勢緊縮信用，對經濟產生進一步抵押品效果。 2.由此次台灣企業財務危機教訓可知，出問題的多為股票質押，不動產質押因應危機的反映較低且台灣不動產不景氣已多年，銀行資本已消化部分壞帳。實證結果亦顯示股票質押相對不動產更有助長經濟向下沉淪的力量。 3.各國經濟結構有別，對抵押品寄予不同程度擔保。所得低的國家，債信程度亦低，金融機構愈仰賴抵押品進行貸款評估，但其效果並不顯著，表示所得並不是唯一考量債信的因素之一。儲蓄對利率的敏感度也是各國因應危機受創不一的因素，當政府為了捍衛匯率，提高利率的結果,無可避免的重創經濟體系，而逃離的資金對利率敏感度低下，卻不易回流至金融體系，整體而言，勢必對一國景氣恢愎速度造成阻力。 4.放款對股價彈性大小變動的幅度和綜合危機判斷指數成負相關。代表愈仰賴抵押品作為貸款條件的國家在面臨危機發生時，會因抵押品效果使經濟更加惡化。

房地產市場與銀行放款業務間，因為存在著密不可分之關係，本研究主要目的為釐清貸款利率與貸款成數對住宅價格是否具有顯著影響，進而探討中央銀行之選擇性信用管制政策，對於貸款利率、貸款成數與住宅價格之間，是否具有政策效果，最後再針對不同的需求族群，給予購屋行為選擇之參考或為銀行選擇貸款客群之參考。 本研究透過實證分析發現，貸款成數對於住宅價格為正向顯著影響，但貸款利率對住宅價格，則未呈現顯著影響。而政府之選擇性信用管制措施，在實證結果中，並未達到抑制房價之目的。但是在實施信用管制之後，購屋者對與貸款利率，相對更為敏感。在需求族群的分析上，發現高所得族群相對較重視貸款利率，而中所得與低所得族群，則相對較重視貸款成數。低年齡族群較高年齡族群而言，相對較為重視貸款利率之增加。 對於持續關心貸款利率、成數與住宅價格關聯之研究者，本研究建議後續研究者在資料取得之允許下，可嘗試拉長研究期間，及考慮增加了解政策鬆綁後之影響。在資料完整度許可下，建議可以增加個人屬性變數，並考量都更效應之變數。 / There is an inextricably linkage between the real estate market and the bank lending business. The main purpose of this study is to identify the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value (LTV) ratio, and housing price. Further, we discuss the policy effect among them, due to the central bank's selective credit control policy. Finally, the supply-demand sides, our study hopes to give the choice of purchase behavior on demand groups or the selection of bank on loan-customers In our study, we found that the loan to value ratio has a significant positive effect on the housing price, but the mortgage interest rate has no significant effect on the housing price. In the empirical results, we found that the government's selective credit control policy did not achieve the purpose of curbing housing prices. However, after the implementation of selective credit control policy, the housing-buyer is relatively more sensitive to the mortgage interest rate. In the analysis of demand groups, the study found that high-income groups pay more attention to the mortgage interest rate. However, the middle-income and low-income groups emphasize on loan to value relative to the high-income groups. Finally, the young age groups relatively emphasize on the increase of the mortgage interest rates. For the researchers who continue to care about the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value ratio, and housing price, the study suggests that follow-up researchers, with the permission of the data, may attempt to lengthen the study period and consider increasing the impact of easing the policy. Under the data integrity permission, it is advisable to add personal attribute variables and take into account the variables of the urban renewal effect.