Buyer and seller interactions are analyzed with intermediaries called traders using a network structure. Goods are traded in the market through those networks. Each seller and buyer is linked to a trader through a network. We introduce asymmetric information on the valuation of goods by sellers and buyers. We deal with a two-stage game with incomplete information. The trader tries to maximize his profit. In Chapter 1, we analyze even network structures with one seller-one trader-one buyer and two buyers-one trader-two sellers and the asymmetric network cases with one seller-one trader-two buyers and two sellers-one trader-one buyer. We find that he sometimes offers different prices to sellers or to buyers when the penalty is almost zero in the second even network. We obtain that the trader sometimes offers the same price to all three parties to receive the maximum profit in the second asymmetric case. In Chapter 2, we allow there to be multiple traders and analyze how buyer and seller prices are influenced by competition among traders in a model of uncertainty. Sometimes, the seller and buyer both benefit from the competition between the two traders. The traders compete in the sense of a Bertrand duopoly to choose the price where each trader aims to maximize his profit. In other network structures, we note that the sellers who are not subject to the competition between two traders suffer from the consequences of the monopoly competition. We obtain that there will not be one fixed price that the traders offer the second seller and the second buyer in the last two network structures depending on the conditions on the valuations for the traded good. Middlemen, either as individuals or realtors, seem to have influential effects on the pricing strategy in the housing market. In Chapter 3, we analyze the contribution of the middlemen in the housing market as an application to trade networks. We work on a specific dataset related to the housing prices for two main neighborhoods in Atlanta, Georgia. The characteristics of those neighborhoods differ in terms of its distance to downtown or high-valued residential houses. We compare and contrast the returns for those two neighborhoods with distinct properties in order to investigate if any of these neighborhoods yield higher returns for the middlemen.

Rapid urbanization is a pressing issue for planners, policymakers, transportation engineers, air quality modelers and others. Due to significant environmental, traffic and other impacts, the process of land development highlights a need for land use models with behavioral foundations. Such models seek to anticipate future settlement and transport patterns, helping ensure effective public and private investment decisions and policymaking, to accommodate growth while mitigating environmental impacts and other concerns. A variety of land use models now exist, but a market-based model with sufficient spatial resolution and defensible behavioral foundations remains elusive. This dissertation addresses this goal by developing and applying such a model. Real estate markets involve numerous interactive agents and real estate with a great level of heterogeneity. In the absence of tractable theory for realistic real estate markets, this research takes a “bottom-up” approach and simulates the behavior of tens of thousands of individual agents based on actual data. Both the supply and demand sides of the market are modeled explicitly, with endogenously determined property prices and land use patterns (including distributions of households and firms). Notions of competition were used to simulate price adjustment, and market-clearing prices were obtained in an iterative fashion. When real estate markets reach equilibrium, each agent is aligned with a single, utility-maximizing location and each allocated location is occupied by the highest bidding agent(s). This approach helps ensure a form of local equilibrium (subject to imperfect information on the part of most agents) along with useroptimal land allocation patterns. The model system was applied to the City of Austin and its extraterritorial jurisdiction. Multiple scenarios reveal the strengths and limitations of the market simulation and available data sets. While equilibrium prices in forecast years are generally lower than observed or expected, the spatial distributions of property values, new development, and individual agents are reasonable. Longer-term forecasts were generated to test the performance the model system. The forecasted households and firm distributions in year 2020 are consistent with expectations, but property prices are forecasted to experience noticeable changes. The model dynamics may be much improved by more appropriate maximum bid prices for each property. More importantly, this work demonstrates that microsimulation of real estate markets and the spatial allocation of households and firms is a viable pursuit. Such approaches herald a new wave of land use forecasting opportunities, for more effective policymaking and planning. / text

Utländska investerare har varit aktiva på fastighetsinvesteringsmarknaden i Stockholm sedan slutet på 1990-talet. Perioden 2010–2020 utmärks av att utländska aktörer inledningsvis bemötte efterdyningarna av finanskrisen, följt av en period av högkonjunktur och slutligen en instabil ekonomisk tid till följd av covid-19-pandemin. Denna studie har analyserat den påverkan som utländska investerare har haft på fastighetsinvesteringsmarknaden i Stockholm under 2010–2020. Syftet var att klargöra om de utländska investerarna hade något inflytande på själva marknaden genom sin närvaro och att kartlägga eventuell påverkan, vilket är information som kan vara användbar för bland annat analytiker. Studien baserades på en kvalitativ metod där sex intervjuer genomfördes med professionella yrkesutövare med en bakgrund inom transaktionsrådgivning, värdering och fastighetsförvaltning. En viktig slutsats från avhandlingen är att närvaron av utländska investerare har bidragit till en mer professionell transaktionsprocess, inklusive mer noggranna due diligence-processer. Ett annat fynd är att priserna på fastigheter har stigit under decenniet som en konsekvens av ökad efterfrågan, vilket delvis beror på en växande närvaro från utländska investerare. Studien visar också att utländska investerare uppvisar en flexibilitet när det gäller vilken typ av fastighet de investerar i, då de investerar i alla tillgängliga typer av fastigheter, med avkastning som enda fokus. En av de mer uppenbara trenderna som illustreras i denna studie är att utländska fastighetsinvesterare i Stockholm kommer att försöka investera i högkvalitativa fastigheter, med lägre risk, vilket genererar en stadig inkomstkälla. / Foreign investors have been actively engaged in the real estate market in Stockholm since the late 1990’s. The period 2010–2020 is distinguished by foreign investments initially navigating through the aftermaths of the financial crisis of 2008, followed by a period of economic boom and then eventually confronting the difficult economic state caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study has analyzed the impact that foreign investors have had on the real estate investment market in Stockholm during 2010–2020. The aim was to clarify whether the foreign investors had any influence on the market itself through their presence and to chart any possible impact, which is information that can be useful for analysts, among others. The study was based on a qualitative method where six interviews were held with professionals with a background in transaction advisory, valuation and property management. An important conclusion from the thesis is that the presence of foreign investors has contributed to a more professional transaction process, including more thorough due diligence processes. Another finding is that prices on real estate have risen during the decade as a consequence of higher demand, which originates in part from a growing presence from foreign investors. The study also shows that foreign investors exhibit a flexibility regarding the type of real estate they invest in, as they invest in all available types of properties, with return being the only focus. One of the more evident trends illustrated in this study is that foreign real estate investors in Stockholm will seek to invest in high quality real estate, with lower risk, generating a steady source of income.

This research investigates, using the New Institutional Economics theories of property rights and transaction cost, two interrelated problems. Firstly, the question of whether real estate markets in the urban informal settlements of Namibia could be used to alleviate poverty or, to put it differently, create wealth. The second problem relates to the question of whether specific forms of property rights matter for engendering pro-poor outcomes in real estate markets and, if so, what form these are likely to take. Corresponding to these questions are two working hypotheses respectively. Firstly, it is hypothesised that real estate is a significant asset held by the urban poor in Namibia and that there is potential for capital accumulation by trading up in real estate markets. Secondly it is hypothesised that, by affecting the incentive structure of, and transaction costs in real estate markets, systems of property rights affect market outcomes, thus ultimately determining whether these markets may be efficacious for poverty alleviation. The study employs the comparative institutional methodological approach in a case study framework to examine effects of three types of property rights regimes on low income real estate markets in settlements located on Windhoek’s periphery. The main empirical data for the study were collected by means of a questionnaire survey of 440 households in two settlements called Goreangab and Okahandja Park respectively. This survey was supplemented by 14 unstructured interviews with selected respondents and by key-informant interviews with officials from the Windhoek City Council (WCC), the Namibian Housing Action Group (NHAG), and the Namibian Housing Enterprises (NHE). The study finds that real estate is indeed a major asset held by the respondents. The study finds that, while there are robust rental markets for rooms and backyard structures, there is very limited sale activity. The study also finds that in the absence of formal property rights, social networks and hierarchical organisations rather than impersonal markets provide the institutional structure to transaction activity. It is found that the degree of formality of property rights correlates to perception of security, that property rights affect investment in housing and that property rights (to some extent) affects the degree of market activity. The study therefore concludes that while not insignificant gains are to be had from rental markets, there is at present limited potential to derive benefits from sale markets in Namibia due to a lack of trading activity. The first hypothesis is thus only partially confirmed. It is also concluded that while social networks guarantee access to urban land for the poor, they tend to lock them in enclaves of ethnic and kinship relations, inhibiting the development of wider, impersonal markets argued to be necessary for capital accumulation. Further, it is concluded that formal property rights create incentives for investment and therefore matter for capital accumulation, but that they are not necessarily accessible to the poor. The second hypothesis, that property rights affect market outcomes, is substantially confirmed. Overall the study concludes that there is good potential for leveraging real estate markets in Namibia’s (and other developing countries’) informal settlements for capital accumulation but that these need to be primed first. This means deliberate interventions with the aim of bringing about increased trading activity. In this regard specific proposals have been made for policy intervention in three key areas, namely, the creation of appropriate property rights systems, together with supporting organisational infrastructure, the expansion of physical infrastructure and the building of shared understanding and trust in urban communities. The study makes a number of key contributions to knowledge about the relationship between real estate markets and poverty alleviation in the area of theory, methodology, policy and empirical data. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Construction Economics / unrestricted

金融海嘯發生後，全球經濟在衍生性商品包裝下應聲受挫，反映過去主要國家中央銀行過度強調物價穩定，放任金融創新，對房貸疏於管制；因此當房價崩跌時，銀行的資產品質急遽惡化，銀行業因而嚴重受創，導致金融體系無法正常運作，衝擊實體經濟；失業率攀高，民眾付不出房貸、房屋被法拍，最後陷入金融與經濟不穩定相互影響的惡性循環。 影響房地產的因素眾多，可歸納為：（一）經濟因素，如所得、利率等；（二）社會文化因素，如人口成長率；（三）住宅條件，如交通的便捷性；（四）政治因素政局是否穩定，將影響社會大眾購置不動產的意願；（五）房屋本身特質，如坪數、建材、樓層等；及（六）政府政策因素，如貨幣政策、都市計畫管制，選擇性信用管制等。 由於經濟快速成長與國民所得激增，國內游資充裕物價高漲，帶動台灣房地於民國62至63年、68至69年、76至78年三次景氣循環達到高峰。也因此，民國78年2月28日，央行宣布實施選擇性信用管制，強制金融機構限定土地貸款成數、期限，首開房地產市場受金融管制之先例。 時至98年第2季金融風暴後，由於各國寬鬆貨幣政策陸續發酵，我國遺贈稅率調降至10%，及簽署金融監理合作備忘錄（MOU）、海峽兩岸經濟架構協議（ECFA）等兩岸經貿利多，吸引外資回流，陸資來台投資意願，再加上股市大漲創造的財富效果，推動資金行情加溫，帶動房市價量俱增。 民國99年，全球景氣持續復甦，我國出口及廠商大幅擴張，及全球需求增溫，推升原油等國際原物料行情，房價持續飆漲。央行遂於民國99年6月24日除調升重 貼現率、擔保放款融通利率及短期融通利率，並訂定「中央對金融機構辦理特定地區購屋貸款業務規定」，自6月25日實施，適用地區為新增放款過度集中在台北市及新北市10個縣轄市。 本研究針對本次特定地區信用管制措施，財政部一連串「打炒房」政策效果逐漸彰顯之際，擬藉由央行、金管會銀行局統計報表，分析銀行授信策略如放款科目、對象別及其他授信結構的差異、專家學者論述所集結論證研究，進行Difference in Difference方法的應用，探討房貸緊縮下公、民營銀行授信差異，提出適切論證以提供政府政策執行參考。 / The financial tsunami caused by US subprime mortgage crisis devastated the global economy and revealed the overemphasis of major central banks on price stability, overrated financial innovation, and the willful regulation of the mortgage. Hence, the quality of banks’ assets deteriorated rapidly and resulted in the breakdown of the financial system, leaving a long-lasting impact on the real economy. With unemployment rising, house owners lost their ability to sustain the over-priced mortgage. The end results are way too many foreclosed houses initiated a vicious cycle of financial and economic instability. Real estate markets are often affected by many factors which we summarize as follows: (1) Economic factors, such as income, interest rates, etc; (2) Social and cultural factors, such as population growth rate; (3) Housing conditions, such as the convenience of transportation; (4) The political factors, whether the political situation is stable would affect the willingness of communities in purchasing real property; (5) The characteristics of the properties, such as floor numbers, building materials and so on; and (6) The policies of government, such as monetary policy, urban planning control, discretional credit control, and etc. The thesis aims to study Taiwan’s real estate market with the above mentioned factors, in particular with focus on the effects of credit controls. The central bank declared the first credit control policy on February 28th, 1989 to regulate financial institutions in the forms of capped land loans and strict due dates. Until the second quarter of financial crisis in 2009 and owing to the quantity easing of many countries worldwide, Taiwan’s central bank again resorted to the tightening credit control policy tools in setting "central to financial institutions to handle specific areas housing loan business requirement" effective from June 25, 2010. Areas included Taipei City, New Taipei City, and other 10 cities in Taiwan were deemed as the housing bubble zones. This study uses data from the Statistical Reports of the central bank and FSC Banking Bureau to analyze the banks’ counter-credit-policy responses, such as lending subjects, objects, and other differences in credit structure. Difference-in-Difference approach is used to explore the differences of credit rationing between state-owned (or state-controlled) banks and private banks. Policy recommendation is provided in Chapter V in reminding the regulators to pay special attention to the non-universal effect of a universal credit control measure.

In una realtà sempre più globalizzata e di competizione tra città, ospitare un mega-evento è un’opportunità di accelerazione della trasformazione economica, infrastrutturale, sociale e urbana. Questa tesi si propone di valutare se Torino è stata capace di trasformare l’occasione dei Giochi Olimpici Invernali 2006 in una duratura eredità per la città, separando l’effetto dei Giochi in se' e per se' da quello degli investimenti pubblici e della visibilità. Il primo capitolo evidenzia l’importanza di ospitare un evento per l’economia locale e fornisce un quadro generale d’analisi, presentando la scelta della dinamica dei prezzi immobiliari rispetto ad altri metodi usati in letteratura, assieme a quella della tecnica difference-in-differences. Infine, propone il contesto teorico dell’analisi empirica che viene sviluppata nei due capitoli successivi, spiegando le ragioni dietro la scelta del caso delle Olimpiadi di Torino. Il secondo capitolo mira a separare l’effetto differenziale degli investimenti pubblici locali (introducendo una loro nuova misurazione diretta) sull’attrattività della città, distinto da quello dell’ospitare i Giochi di per sé. Il terzo capitolo amplia l’analisi empirica introducendo il ruolo della visibilità internazionale tramite la creazione di un innovativo indice di visibilità basato sui dati forniti dallo strumento Google Trends. / In a context of increasing globalisation and competition between cities, hosting mega-events is an opportunity to accelerate economic, infrastructural, social and urban transformation. This dissertation aims at analysing if Turin was able to transform the hosting of the 2006 Winter Olympic Games in a long-lasting legacy for the city, separating the effect of the Olympics per se from the ones of public investments and visibility. In doing so, the first chapter highlights the importance of event hosting for local economies and provides a general framework of analysis, discussing the choice of housing prices dynamics to evaluate the impact of mega events with respect to other methods used in literature, as well as the one of difference-in-differences technique. Finally, the theoretical background of the empirical analysis that follows in the subsequent chapters is presented along with the choice of the case of Turin’s Olympics. The second paper aims at disentangling the differential effect of local public investments (introducing a new direct measure of them) on city appeal, distinguished from that of hosting the Olympics per se. The third paper extends the empirical analysis introducing the role of international visibility in shaping the legacy of Turin Olympics. In doing so, an innovative index of visibility is constructed using data from the Google Trend Tool.

Submitted by Victor Pina Dias (victorpinadias@gmail.com) on 2014-05-09T16:32:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_completa.pdf: 1106616 bytes, checksum: 44c56166990213bec437d2143ea750f3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2014-05-13T13:55:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_completa.pdf: 1106616 bytes, checksum: 44c56166990213bec437d2143ea750f3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-05-16T12:53:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_completa.pdf: 1106616 bytes, checksum: 44c56166990213bec437d2143ea750f3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-16T12:53:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_completa.pdf: 1106616 bytes, checksum: 44c56166990213bec437d2143ea750f3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-19 / Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the e§ect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and in other developed countries as U.S. and U.K. Our Örst motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation is the boom of the real-estate prices in Brazil in the last Öve years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and S„o Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last Öve years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive e§ect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible signiÖcant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare (consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our Öndings support the view that the channel through which house prices a§ect consumption is a Önancial one. / Este tese é composta por quatro ensaios sobre aplicações econométricas em tópicos econômicos relevantes. Os estudos versam sobre consumo de bens não-duráveis e preços de imóveis, capital humano e crescimento econômico, demanda residencial de energia elétrica e, por fim, periodicidade de variáveis fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. No primeiro artigo, 'Non-Durable Consumption and Real-Estate Prices in Brazil: Panel-Data Analysis at the State Level', é investigada a relação entre variação do preço de imóveis e variação no consumo de bens não-duráveis. Os dados coletados permitem a formação de um painel com sete estados brasileiros observados entre 2008- 2012. Os resultados são obtidos a partir da estimação de uma forma reduzida obtida em Campbell e Cocco (2007) que aproxima um modelo estrutural. As estimativas para o caso brasileiro são inferiores as de Campbell e Cocco (2007), que, por sua vez, utilizaram microdados britânicos. O segundo artigo, 'Uma medida alternativa de capital humano para o estudo empírico do crescimento', propõe uma forma de mensuração do estoque de capital humano que reflita diretamente preços de mercado, através do valor presente do fluxo de renda real futura. Os impactos dessa medida alternativa são avaliados a partir da estimação da função de produção tradicional dos modelos de crescimento neoclássico. Os dados compõem um painel de 25 países observados entre 1970 e 2010. Um exercício de robustez é realizado para avaliar a estabilidade dos coeficientes estimados diante de variações em variáveis exógenas do modelo. Por sua vez, o terceiro artigo 'Household Electricity Demand in Brazil: a microdata approach', parte de dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) para mensurar a elasticidade preço da demanda residencial brasileira por energia elétrica. O uso de microdados permite adotar abordagens que levem em consideração a seleção amostral. Seu efeito sobre a demanda de eletricidade é relevante, uma vez que esta demanda é derivada da demanda por estoque de bens duráveis. Nesse contexto, a escolha prévia do estoque de bens duráveis (e consequentemente, a escolha pela intensidade de energia desse estoque) condiciona a demanda por eletricidade dos domicílios. Finalmente, o quarto trabalho, 'Interpolação de Variáveis Fiscais Brasileiras usando Representação de Espaço de Estados' procurou sanar o problema de baixa periodicidade da divulgação de séries fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. Através de técnica de interpolação baseada no Filtro de Kalman, as séries mensais não observadas são projetadas a partir de séries bimestrais parcialmente observadas e covariáveis mensais selecionadas.

Tokyo est une ville mature qui se caractérise par une contraction de sa population active à la suite du vieillissement démographique et par une stagnation de ses indicateurs économiques (Produit Urbain Brut, prix immobiliers, stagflation). Néanmoins, malgré cet état, le tissu urbain de ses espaces centraux a été rénové à un rythme soutenu à partir du tournant des années 2000. Le dynamisme de la livraison de tours de grande hauteur contraste avec le contexte de maturité. La politique de renaissance urbaine mise en place en 2002 par le gouvernement central participe de la grande mutation des espaces centraux et péri‐centraux de la capitale japonaise. Elle permet d’articuler acteurs publics et privés autour d’opérations de rénovation urbaine de grande ampleur, qui concentrent les investissements dans des espaces précis. Ce travail de recherches doctorales analyse les impacts de la maturité urbaine sur la production immobilière et les recompositions spatiales du tissu tokyoïte, en interrogeant la mutation des stratégies des acteurs publics et privés impliqués dans la fabrique urbaine. La maturité est au cœur des questionnements : qu’est ce qu’une ville « mature » ? Comment continuer de créer de la richesse dans un contexte de quasi stagnation économique et démographique ? Cette thèse de doctorat aboutit à trois constats. La ville mature évolue peu à l’échelle macro, mais connaît d’intenses recompositions internes aux échelles méso et micro, traduisant une maximisation de la concurrence et de la compétition entre acteurs et entre territoires. Fruit de cette concurrence généralisée, Tokyo se recompose en points chauds qui concentrent les investissements et en points froids sur‐déprimés dans lesquels les pertes économiques et démographiques sont importantes. Afin de maintenir des taux de rentabilité intéressants pouvant garantir les opérations de renaissance urbaine, un nouveau régime d’accumulation du capital se met en place : un régime d’accumulation « dynamique ». Ce nouveau régime maximise les profits en accélérant la rotation du capital et des investissements immobiliers par le biais d’une obsolescence accélérée du bâti et par la mise en place d’une rotation cyclique des investissements par catégorie (bureau, Résidentiel de luxe, équipement, hôtellerie de luxe). La Contrepartie en est la contraction continue des espaces économiquement rentables ou intéressants les investisseurs privés. La Ville mature entraîne alors une contraction spatiale et temporelle des investissements et aboutit à des logiques de plus en plus concentrées et de plus en plus court‐termistes. / Tokyo is a mature city characterized by two elements: its working population shrinks because of the demographic ageing, and its economic indicators stagnate (Growth Urban Product, real estate prices, stagflation). Nevertheless, in stead of this state, the urban frame of central spaces has been rapidly renewed since the turn of the 2000s. The dynamism of high rise building construction contrasts with the urban context. The urban renaissance policy initiated in 2002 by the central government encourages the great transformation of Tokyo’s central and sub‐central spaces. It allows to articulate public and private agents developing big urban renaissance projects, which concentrate investments in few urban spaces. This doctoral research work analyzes the impacts of urban maturity on real estate activities and on spatial restructurations of Tokyo’s urban frame. It investigates the strategy mutations of public and private agents involved in urban making. Maturity is the core of this PhD: What is a « mature » city? How to continue to create values in such a context of economic and demographic stagnation? This PhD thesis makes three conclusions. The mature city slightly changes at the macro scale, but faces intense internal recomposition at the meso and micro scales. It maximizes competition between agents and territories. As a result of this general competition, Tokyo is recomposed in hot spots, where are concentrated the investments, and in cold spots where economic and demographic losses are important. In order to maintain interessant rentability levels, a new capital accumulation regime appears: a « dynamic » capital accumulation regime. This new regime maximizes profits by speeding the rotation of capital and real estate investments speeding up the obsolescence of buildings and developing a cycle rotation of investments by category (commercial, residential, equipments, hotels). The counterpart is the shrinkage of economically profitable spaces. The mature city is therefore characterized by a spatial and temporal shrinkage of investments, and leads to more and more concentrated and more and more short- termist logics.

Markttransparenz in Deutschland wird durch die Gutachterausschüsse und auch durch verschiedene private Akteure am Immobilienmarkt realisiert. Insbesondere in Teilmärkten mit geringen Transaktionszahlen stellt die Markttransparenz eine Herausforderung dar, da nicht ausreichend Daten zur Analyse der jeweiligen Märkte zur Verfügung stehen. Aus diesem Grund bedürfen diese Märkte einer tiefergehenden Untersuchung, um auch hier eine ausreichende Markttransparenz zu erreichen. Die Vielfältigkeit der Teilmärkte mit geringen Transaktionszahlen muss dafür differenziert betrachtet werden. Im Rahmen der Arbeit werden zunächst Unterschiede in den Eigenschaften der Märkte mit geringen Transaktionszahlen untersucht. Hierzu wird mittels einer qualitativen Untersuchung von Leitfadeninterviews sowie der Literatur zum Thema eine Theorie zur Systematisierung der Märkte gebildet. Differenziert für einzelne Märkte kann mit dieser Strukturierung eine passende Auswertestrategie entwickelt werden. Anschließend erfolgt die Untersuchung von verschiedenen Daten, die bereits in den Märkten mit geringer Transaktionszahl genutzt werden. Kauffälle, die unvollständig erfasst sind, werden derzeit bei Auswertungen vollständig ausgeschlossen (Fallweiser Ausschluss). Teilweise fehlt jedoch nur eine Information für eine multivariate Analyse. Im Rahmen der Arbeit wird untersucht, ob und mit welchen Methoden diese Datenlücken geeignet gefüllt werden können, um eine höhere Genauigkeit in den Analysen auch mit wenigen Daten zu erhalten. Als Methoden werden neben dem Fallweisen Ausschluss eine Mittelwertimputation sowie die Auffüllung der Datenlücken mittels Expectation-Maximization und Random-Forest-Regression untersucht. Darüber hinaus wird das Expertenwissen, das in verschiedenen Formen von Expertisen (Befragungen, Angebotspreise, Gutachten) geäußert werden kann, untersucht. Zur Erlangung eines Überblicks, wird zunächst das Expertenwissen im Rahmen einer quantitativen Befragung näher betrachtet, um Handlungsweisen und Unterschiede von Experten aus verschiedenen Gruppen aufzudecken. Anschließend werden intersubjektive Experten- und Laienbefragungen im Kontext der Immobilienbewertung ausgewertet sowie Angebotspreise, die von Maklern und ohne Makler vermarktet werden, im Verhältnis zu den realisierten Kaufpreisen untersucht. Da die untersuchten zusätzlichen Daten wie Angebotsdaten oder Expertenbefragungen in einigen Teilmärkten nicht zur Verfügung stehen oder nur mit hohem Aufwand erzeugt werden können, sind alternative Nutzungsansätze notwendig. Hierzu werden zwei Methoden auf ihre Eignung hinsichtlich räumlich zusammengefasster Auswertungen geprüft. Der Vergleich erfolgt zur in der Praxis etablierten multiplen linearen Regressionsanalyse. Zum einen werden die geographisch gewichtete Regressionsanalyse, die lokale Märkte besser abbilden kann, zum anderen die künstlichen neuronalen Netze, die Nichtlinearitäten besser abbilden können, angewendet. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass eine Strukturierung der Märkte mit geringer Transaktionszahl möglich ist. Eine sinnvolle Strukturierung erfolgt anhand der Grundgesamtheit des jeweiligen sachlichen/-räumlichen Marktes. Ebenso kann eine Differenzierung nach ländlichen und urbanen Räumen erfolgen. Mit Imputationsmethoden können die Ergebnisse von Regressionsanalysen deutlich verbessert werden. Selbst bei einem großen Vorkommen von Datenlücken in unterschiedlichen Parametern kann eine Auswertung noch gute Ergebnisse in der Größenordnung der vollständigen Kauffälle liefern. Auch mit der simplen Methode der Mittelwertimputation kann ein gutes Ergebnis erzielt werden. Experten im Bereich der Immobilienbewertung haben die unterschiedlichsten beruflichen Herkünfte. In ihrer Arbeitsweise lassen sich jedoch keine wesentlichen Systematiken feststellen. Lediglich bei der Nutzung von Daten können Systematiken aufgedeckt werden. Expertenbefragungen weisen grundsätzlich hohe Streuungsmaße auf. Die Streuungsmaße werden dann reduziert, wenn bei den Befragungen Einschränkungen beispielsweise durch eine vorgegebene Skala oder durch vorgeschlagene Werte erfolgen. Weitere Untersuchungen sind dahingehend notwendig. Auch die Abschläge zwischen Angebotspreisen und Kaufpreisen, aber auch die Anpassung von Angebotspreisen im Vermarktungszeitraum, weisen hohe Streuungsbreiten auf. Einen signifikanten Unterschied zwischen der Vermarktung mit oder ohne Makler kann in der untersuchten Stichprobe nicht nachgewiesen werden. Sowohl die Nutzung der geographisch gewichteten Regressionsanalyse (GWR) als auch die Nutzung von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen (KNN) bieten bei der Auswertung von räumlich zusammengefassten Daten in einer Kreuzvalidierung einen Vorteil. Dies lässt darauf schließen, dass die Märkte sowohl räumlich inhomogen als auch nichtlinear sind. Zielführend erscheint eine Kombination der geographischen Komponente mit nichtparametrischen Ansätzen wie dem Lernverfahren der KNN. / In Germany market transparency is realised by expert’s committees and due to the publication of market reports and market values and by various private players in the real estate market. In sub-markets with low transaction numbers, market transparency is a challenge because not enough data is available to analyse the respective markets. These markets require a more in-depth investigation to achieve sufficient market transparency. The diversity of sub-markets with low transaction numbers must be considered in a differentiated way. In the context of this work, differences in the characteristics of markets with a small number of transactions are examined. A theory for the systematisation of these markets is formed, using a qualitative investigation of guideline interviews and literature on the topic. Differentiated for individual markets, a suitable evaluation strategy can be developed using the proposed structuring. Subsequently, the analysis of different data, which is already used in real estate valuation, is carried out to investigate its usability for regions with few transactions. Purchase cases which are recorded incompletely, are today excluded from evaluations (case-wise exclusion). However, most of the time only one or two pieces of information for multivariate analysis are missing per case. It is examined whether and with which methods these data gaps can be filled suitably. Besides the case-by-case rejection (default method today), a mean-value-imputation, as well as the filling of data gaps using Expectation-Maximization and Random-Forest-Regression are investigated. Furthermore, the expert’s knowledge, which can be expressed in different forms of expert’s opinions (surveys, offer prices, expert reports), is examined. First of all, the expert knowledge, in general, is examined more closely within the framework of a quantitative survey to uncover patterns of action and differences between experts from different groups. Subsequently, intersubjective expert and layman surveys are evaluated in the context of real estate valuation. Additional offer prices, marketed with or without real estate agents, are compared to the realised purchase prices. Since the additional data examined, such as the supply data or the expert surveys, is not available in some sub-markets or can only be generated at great expense, alternative approaches to utilisation are necessary. For this purpose, two methods are tested for their suitability with regard to spatially summarised data. A comparison to the classically used linear regression analysis is made. On one hand, the geographically weighted regression analysis, which represents local markets more accurately, and the artificial neural networks, which are more suited to represent non-linearities, are applied. The result shows that a systematisation of markets with a low number of transactions is possible. A structuring based on the population of the respective functional/spatial sub-market takes place. It is also possible to differentiate between rural and urban areas. With imputation methods, the results of regression analyses can be improved significantly. Even if there are large numbers of data gaps in different parameters, an evaluation can still provide adequate results in comparison to an analysis with complete purchase cases if the overall sample is big enough. Already the simple method of mean-value-imputation leads to good results. Experts in the field of real estate valuation have a wide variety of professional backgrounds. However, significant systematics cannot be identified in their working methods. Different behaviour can only be identified by the usage of different data sources. Expert surveys generally show a high degree of dispersion. This degree of dispersion is reduced if the surveys are restricted, e.g. by a given scale or suggested values. Further investigations on these topics are necessary. The discounts between offer prices and purchase prices as well as the adjustment of offer prices within the marketing period are showing a high degree of dispersion. A significant difference between marketing with or without an agent cannot be proven in the examined sample. Both, the use of geographically weighted regression analysis and the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) offer an advantage when evaluating spatially summarised data in cross-validation. This leads to the conclusion that the markets are both geographically inhomogeneous and non-linear. A combination of the geographic component with non-parametric approaches such as the learning procedure of the ANN is appropriate.

Cette thèse présente trois essais qui fournissent un aperçu global de la manière dont les chocs au niveau du marché immobilier affectent l'économie et vice versa.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons des modèles de Markov à changement de régimes avec des probabilités qui dépendent du temps et des probabilités fixes afin d'évaluer l'ampleur des mécanismes de transmission entre le marché de placements immobiliers, le marché du logement et le marché boursier au Royaume-Uni et aux États-Unis. Nous montrons que la relation entre les marchés immobiliers et les marchés des actions est plus significative quand les marchés immobiliers sont considérés comme des variables explicatives.Dans le deuxième essai, nous introduisons le marché d'immobilier commercial afin d'identifier les interactions entre différents marchés immobiliers et certaines variables macroéconomiques. Nous utilisons une fonction de cohérence dynamique dans un cadre d'analyse spectrale pour évaluer ces liens. Les résultats montrent une tendance commune à long terme des différents marchés immobiliers. Aux États-Unis, les canaux de transmissions: richesse et dépenses de logement sont très conducteurs en cas de crise immobilière. Cependant, au Royaume-Uni, seulement le canal de la richesse s'avère conducteur dans les périodes de ralentissement du marché immobilier. Le troisième essai développe un cadre pour modéliser le marché de logement français. Nous élaborons et estimons un modèle de recherche d'équilibre du marché du logement segmenté entre locataires et propriétaires se caractérisant par une hétérogénéité des besoins de logement. Notre modèle reproduit l'évolution des prix de l'immobilier sur le marché français de 1996 à 2006, ainsi que la corrélation entre le prix, l'âge et la durée. En outre, nous montrons que l'inadéquation des individus avec leur logement est fortement corrélée avec le cycle de vie, et que l'agrégation de ces événements peut empêcher l'équilibre du marché à long terme. / This thesis contains three essays on the linkages between real estate and the wider economy. We provide a global snapshot of how shocks in the real estate market affect the economy and vice versa. In the first essay, we use Markov Switching models with time varying transition probabilities and fixed time transition probabilities in order to assess the magnitude of the transmission mechanisms between real estate markets and stock markets in the UK and the US. The results show a more significant credit price effect than a wealth effect. In addition, the different features of the linkages between real estate markets and stock markets are explained by the difference in the indices constructions of the housing prices and the REIT models in the two countries.In the second essay, an additional property market is included to further investigate the links of different real estate markets with some key macroeconomic variables. We use a dynamic coherence function in a spectral framework to assess these linkages. We find a common trend that drives all the real estate markets, particularly in the long run. The results show that in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, for the UK, only the wealth is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. The third essay develops a framework that models the French housing market. We specify and estimate an equilibrium search model of the housing market that features a segmented housing market with heterogeneity in housing need. Our model reproduces almost exactly the evolution of French housing prices from 1996 to 2006, along with the correlation between price, age and duration. In addition we show that individuals mismatch is highly correlated with the life-cycle, and that aggregation of such events can prevent the market from clearing over a long period of time.