Die Arbeit untersucht die Gründe für die geographische Verteilung von Beschäftigung und Bevölkerung in Deutschland seit 1895. Deutschland bietet im Zeitraum 1895-2010 einen geeigneten Rahmen für diese Analyse, da beide Treiber räumlicher Verteilung – wirtschaftliche und politische Kräfte – wesentliche Veränderungen erfuhren. Sowohl die Ausstattung von Regionen mit Ressourcen als auch der Zugang zu Märkten beeinflusst die Verteilung von Industriestandorten. Deutsche Teilung und Wiedervereinigung verändern das langfristige Gleichgewicht von Industriestandorten nicht, der Zugang zu Märkten ist aber ein wichtiger Treiber des Gleichgewichtes, das in der Vorkriegszeit erreicht wurde. Die Spezialisierung von Regionen beschreibt eine U-förmige Entwicklung mit einem Hochpunkt in 1925, während die DDR erheblich spezialisierter als die BRD war. Die ökonometrische Analyse legt nahe, dass die DDR Wirtschaftspolitik Marktkräfte nicht langfristig außer Kraft setzen konnte. Ein neuer Datensatz zu Bodenrichtwerten in vier Bundesländern und 1533 Gemeinden für den Zeitraum 1980-2000 zeigt, dass Landpreiswachstum stark zwischen den Regionen variiert, wobei das Landpreisniveau stark mit Marktzugang korreliert. Städtische Regionen wachsen schneller als der ländliche Raum. Für das Zonenrandgebiet finde ich ein überproportionales Wachstum der Landpreise nach der Wiedervereinigung. Dieses Ergebnis schreibe ich dem Informations- und Erwartungsgehalt von Bodenrichtwerten zu. Landpreise reagieren schneller auf Veränderungen im Marktzugang, da sie langfristig zu erwartende Unternehmens- und Haushaltsumzüge umgehend berücksichtigen. Der Wiedervereinigungseffekt variiert stark zwischen Regionen, wobei kleinere Gemeinden den größten Zugewinn erleben. / This dissertation studies the underlying forces for the observed spatial distribution of employment and population in Germany since 1895. Germany in the period 1895-2010 offers a natural setting to empirically test competing explanations. Both determinants of spatial differences - economic and policy forces - received substantial shocks during this period. I find empirical support for both regional endowment and market access forces as determinants of industry location. Division and reunification shocks to market access did not alter the long-run spatial equilibrium of industry location, but they were important drivers in the formation of the pre-WWII equilibrium distribution. I observe a hump-shaped regional specialisation trend peaking around 1925, interrupted by the years of division during which the East became highly specialised. Furthermore, sectoral change occurred with a delay of about 20 years in East Germany. The econometric analysis suggests that policy regimes are unable to override economic forces. Using a new data set on standard land values in four German states and 1,533 boroughs along the inner German border spanning the period 1980-2000 I show that land value growth rates vary greatly across population densities. Urban areas grow faster than smaller regions in the period 1980-2000. Land value levels are highly correlated with market access. I find that land values have risen disproportionately in the former inner German border region. I attribute the finding that land prices react more quickly than population to the information and expectation component of land prices. Land values incorporate expectations about long-run equilibrium adjustments following reunification more swiftly, but firms and households are slower to react due to the costs of relocating. The positive reunification effect does however differ greatly across regions. I find that rural boroughs reap a larger share of the positive reunification gains.

Nekilnojamo turto (NT) rinka yra visos ekonomikos svarbi sudedamoji dalis. Tai specifinė rinka dėl investicinio prekės pobūdžio ir unikalumo. Šiame darbe apžvelgiama, kas yra turtas, kokia yra rinka, paklausa ir pasiūla, dalyviai bei ciklai, NT rinką įtakojantys veiksniai. Interpretuojama situacija susidariusi NT rinkoje Lietuvoje. Ekonominės sąlygos lemia, kad NT rinka visame pasaulyje pasiekė bumą ir turi pergyventi nuosmukį. Bumas/burbulas – situacija, kai kainos rinkoje formuojamos pirmiausia dėl psichologinių veiksnių ir atitrūksta nuo jas aiškinančių fundamentalių faktorių. Burbulas sprogsta tada, kai investuotojai nebesitiki, kad kainos kils. Tada paklausa sumažėja ir NT rinka krenta žemyn. Nuosmukio pradžia ir viso ciklo trukmė sunkiai prognozuojama. Vidutiniškai NT rinka sugriūna 18 mėnesių iki bankų krizės. Infliacija, palūkanų norma, BVP, investicijų srautai, nuomos kainos, nedarbo lygis, migracija, progresas šalyje, lūkesčiai, poreikiai, informacijos srautas, globalizacija – tai veiksniai, kurie turi įtakos NT rinkos ciklui. Darbe apžvelgiamos nekilnojamojo turto kainos Lietuvoje per pastaruosius dešimt metų, jų pokyčiai lyginant su praėjusiu laikotarpiu ir su 1998 m. Taip pat yra nagrinėjamos trys veiksnių, turinčių įtakos nekilnojamojo turto kainai, rūšys. Tai demografiniai, makroekonominiai, statybos sektoriaus rodikliai bei nekilnojamojo turto kreditavimas. Lyginami jų pokyčiai per nagrinėjamąjį laikotarpį su nekilnojamojo turto kainomis, taip pat pokyčių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Real estate market is important for country’s economics. Real estate’s specific market because it has an investment format and it is unique. In this paper it is reviewed real estate, its market, supply and demand, participants and cycles, indicators. Economics conditions course, that in all the world real estate market has to reach boom and face the recession. Bubble - it is a situation when prices lose a touch with fundamental bias because of the philological factors. Bubble collapse when investors think that prices will not increase anymore and demand reduce. It is difficult to forecast the start of the collapse and the length of the cycle. In the average after the collapse of real estate market in 18 months there is crisis of banks. There are many factors which are important for real estate cycle like inflation, interest and mortgage rate, GDP, investment flows, rent and unemployment rate, migration, progress in the country, expectations, media, and globalization. Real estate prices within past ten years in Lithuania and their changes compared with last period and the year 1998 are overviewed in this work. Also three kinds of factors that have influence on the real estate prices are analyzed. They are exponents of demography, macro economics and construction sector and real estate crediting. Changes in ten years period are compared with the changes of real estate prices and the reasons also. The real estate price’s crisis ant it’s causes are examined. The forecast for... [to full text]

投資決策時，除了關注資產的報酬外，更不可忽略風險。而風險的衡量上，一般常用風險值來衡量投資所面臨的風險，這是由於風險值具有動態管理、量化風險等優點。而國內研究對於不動產風險值的文獻上多以住宅市場為主，對於商用不動產較無著墨，是故本研究欲從不同風險值模型探討投資商用不動產的風險值，並分為直接投資(北市商用不動產)與間接投資(REITs)商用不動產兩個不同次市場。實證結果發現直接投資商用不動產風險值高於間接投資商用不動產。其次，本研究試圖比較靜態與動態風險值模型在估計不動產風險值的行為表現，經回溯測試(Back Testing)檢驗後發現，發現兩個模型衡量不動產風險值時，表現差異性不大。最後，本研究並以夏普績效(Sharp Ratio)來衡量直接投資與間接投資商用不動產的投資績效，研究期間為2007年6月至2009年3月。實證結果發現，直接投資商用不動產在景氣衰退與股市劇跌時具有抗跌性；而間接投資商用不動產則與股市發生同時下跌的現象，此現象可能是我國REITs具有代理問題(Agency Problem)與系統風險(Systematic Risk)等問題所致。因此，本研究建議投資者投資REITs時，應同時考量REITs存在上述的風險與問題，以避免投資上的損失。 / When making investment strategies, aside from considering the return of investment, one cannot ignore the risk factors. In measuring risk, we usually use VaR (Value at Risk) to calculate the risks of investment because, among other reasons, VaR has dynamic and quantifiable advantages. Most of the studies regarding real estate investment risk in Taiwan focus on residential markets; thus, this paper investigates commercial real estate markets using different VaR models to determine the degree of risk, distinguishing further between direct investment markets and indirect investment markets like REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust). The result of this study reveals that direct real estate investment involves higher risks than indirect real estate investment. Furthermore, there was hardly any difference in investment risk when using either static or dynamic VaR models in the computations after using Back Testing. Finally, this study employs Sharp Ratio to calculate commercial real estate investment performance covering the period between June 2007 and March 2009. Direct real estate investment shows firmness during economic downturns or stock market crashes unlike indirect real estate investment like REITs which follows stock market trends. This phenomenon may be due to Agency Problem and Systematic Risk in Taiwan’s REITs market. Therefore this study suggests that when investing in REITs one has to take into account the risks and problems in order to avoid unnecessary investment losses.

The diploma thesis deals with the occurence of price bubbles in the real estate markets and with the consequences resulting from their existence for the monetary policy authorities and for the macroprudential supervision. At first, the nature of price bubbles, the circumstances of their occurence and downfall and the possibilities of their identification are explained, while they are divided into rational and irrational bubbles. This is followed by the characteristics of the real estate market, by a description of its operation and by assessment of its specifics compared to the markets of other assets, while the real estate market is characterized by several market imperfections which constantly prevent it from heading to the equilibrium. Next part of the thesis refers to the analysis of the potential price bubble in the current Czech real estate market, separately for both the residential and the commercial segment of the market. Attention is paid to the central bank's response to current developments. In the last part, the thesis focuses on the implications of the impact of price bubbles on the real estate markets for the central banks' monetary policy and for macroprudential supervision authorities. The thesis also discusses the importance of asset prices in the context of inflation targeting and the importance of the role of real estate markets in systemic financial crises.

In the 2018 edition of the JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index (GRETI), Sweden was ranked the 10th most transparent real estate market in the world, categorized as ‘Highly Transparent’. For the most part, Sweden has held a similar position since the measurements started in 1999. Transparency on a real estate market generally attracts foreign real estate investments and tenants as well as increasing global competitiveness. It also streamlines work processes in many real estate professions through comprehensive real estate market information and comprehensible legal frameworks, transaction processes and methods of monitoring different sustainability metrics. This study explores the prerequisites for Sweden to attain a better position in the index by increasing its degree of real estate market transparency, with the long-term goal in having Sweden reaping more of the benefits in having a highly transparent real estate market. This is done in two ways. First is through a critical analysis of the index’s methodology for assessing if ranks and scores within the different index categories are produced fairly. Secondly, different industry actors are interviewed to identify in what areas Sweden lags behind compared to more transparent markets, in which way they would like to see transparency improved in Sweden and the main barriers in implementing projects that would increase real estate market transparency and ways of overcoming them. An examination of the index methodology shows a changing methodology from year to year, which indicates a steady increase in real estate market transparency in Sweden. Interview findings support a generally positive view on transparency, facilitating decision making for real estate investments, but the level of preferred transparency differs between net sellers and buyers. It is therefore questionable if increasing real estate market transparency would provide significantly increased utility for some market actors with longer investment horizons and market knowledge through extensive business networks. Main suggestions for improving real estate transparency in Sweden include measures for data standards, increasing the level of data disclosure and information platforms for such standardized, disclosed data. The study suggests that the main barriers for implementing this could be conceptualized as a Prisoners’ dilemma and that institutional bodies could act as trustworthy partners in further opening up real estate market information. / I 2018 års upplaga av rapporten JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index (GRETI) rankades Sverige som den tionde mest transparenta fastighetsmarknaden i världen, kategoriserat som ‘Mycket Transparent’. Sverige har mestadels hållit en liknande position i rankingen sedan mätningarna startade år 1999. Generellt så medför transparens på ett lands fastighetsmarknad en ökad attraktion för investeringar och hyresgäster såväl som en ökad global konkurrenskraft. Det effektiviserar även arbetsprocesser i många yrken i fastighetsbranschen genom omfattande fastighetsmarknadsinformation och överskådliga legala ramverk, transaktionsprocesser och metoder för att utvärdera olika nyckeltal kopplat till hållbarhet. Denna studie undersöker förutsättningarna för Sverige för att kunna uppnå en bättre position i indexet genom att öka transparensen på landets fastighetsmarknad, med det långsiktiga målet att få Sverige att kunna åtnjuta fördelarna av att ha en mycket transparent fastighetsmarknad. Detta är genomfört på två sätt. Det första är genom en kritisk analys av indexets metodik för att utvärdera om rankingar och poängsättningen inom de olika indexkategorierna har producerats på ett rättvist tillvägagångssätt. Det andra är genom intervjustudier med olika branschaktörer för att identifiera de områden där Sverige släpar efter i förhållande till andra mer transparenta marknader och på vilket sätt de skulle vilja se att transparensen förbättras i Sverige samt de huvudsakliga hindren mot att kunna implementera projekt som skulle kunna öka transparensen på Sveriges fastighetsmarknad och sätt att överkomma dessa hinder. En undersökning av indexmetodiken visar på en ändrad metodik från år till år, som indikerar en stabilt ökande grad av transparens på Sveriges fastighetsmarknad. Intervjuresultaten stödjer en generell positiv syn på transparens som ett sätt att underlätta beslutsfattande för fastighetsinvesteringar, men nivån av föredragen transparens skiljer sig åt mellan nettoköpare och nettosäljare. Det ifrågasätts därför om en ökad transparens på Sveriges fastighetsmarknad skulle bidra med en signifikant ökad nytta för vissa branschaktörer med längre investeringshorisonter samt marknadskännedom genom sina stora branschnätverk. Huvudsakliga förbättringspunkter i termer av att öka transparensen på Sveriges fastighets-marknad inkluderar åtgärder för datastandarder, en ökad nivå av datadelning samt informationsplattformar för sådan standardiserad, delade data. Studien visar på att de huvudsakliga barriärerna för att implementera dessa åtgärder kan konceptualiseras som ett Fångarnas dilemma och att offentliga organ kan agera som pålitliga partners i att vidare öppna upp fastighetsmarknadsinformation.