不動產銷售模式可區分為兩種：議價銷售和拍賣銷售。關於兩種銷售模式間的價格差異，國內外已有不少研究，但在研究對象的選擇上集中在住宅市場，於商用不動產市場之討論則相對匱乏。而近年來在國內的商用不動產市場，拍賣銷售之使用已越來越廣泛，其交易量不但超過議價銷售，且銷售價格亦有屢創新高的現象。尤其商用不動產往往具有大面積、高總價的特性，如銷售模式不同對於商用不動產價格確有影響，則銷售總價就可能產生巨大的落差，對賣方之收益影響甚巨。此外，對不動產估價師而言，拍賣銷售案例因取得容易而經常被使用，但如不能區分銷售模式對不動產價格之影響，並給予合適的價格調整率，則可能導致對不動產價格之誤判。因此，了解不同銷售模式對於商用不動產價格是否有影響，實有其必要性。 本研究以台北市辦公室為研究對象，探討銷售模式對商用不動產價格之影響，以及不動產特性和拍賣競爭因素對拍賣價格的影響。實證結果顯示，採用拍賣銷售之辦公室，價格較議價銷售辦公室溢價約8.59%。而區位較佳、屋齡較新及全棟成交之辦公大樓，拍賣溢價效果則更為明顯。另外，標單數量對拍賣銷售價格亦具有顯著的影響；標單數量每增加1封，拍賣銷售價格將增加1.28%。故對賣方而言，在市場景氣階段或持有不動產品質較佳的情況下，可採用拍賣銷售以增加獲利；並可委託專業商仲公司協助行銷，以促使更多的潛在購買者參與投標。買方可視拍賣不動產的條件提高競標價格以增加得標機率，但亦應注意投資報酬率要求，避免落入嬴者詛咒之陷阱。最後，對不動產估價師而言，在採用拍賣案例時應考量市場景氣變動、不動產產品特性及拍賣過程中的競爭情況，決定適當的情況調整率，以避免估價結果之誤判。

投資決策時，除了關注資產的報酬外，更不可忽略風險。而風險的衡量上，一般常用風險值來衡量投資所面臨的風險，這是由於風險值具有動態管理、量化風險等優點。而國內研究對於不動產風險值的文獻上多以住宅市場為主，對於商用不動產較無著墨，是故本研究欲從不同風險值模型探討投資商用不動產的風險值，並分為直接投資(北市商用不動產)與間接投資(REITs)商用不動產兩個不同次市場。實證結果發現直接投資商用不動產風險值高於間接投資商用不動產。其次，本研究試圖比較靜態與動態風險值模型在估計不動產風險值的行為表現，經回溯測試(Back Testing)檢驗後發現，發現兩個模型衡量不動產風險值時，表現差異性不大。最後，本研究並以夏普績效(Sharp Ratio)來衡量直接投資與間接投資商用不動產的投資績效，研究期間為2007年6月至2009年3月。實證結果發現，直接投資商用不動產在景氣衰退與股市劇跌時具有抗跌性；而間接投資商用不動產則與股市發生同時下跌的現象，此現象可能是我國REITs具有代理問題(Agency Problem)與系統風險(Systematic Risk)等問題所致。因此，本研究建議投資者投資REITs時，應同時考量REITs存在上述的風險與問題，以避免投資上的損失。 / When making investment strategies, aside from considering the return of investment, one cannot ignore the risk factors. In measuring risk, we usually use VaR (Value at Risk) to calculate the risks of investment because, among other reasons, VaR has dynamic and quantifiable advantages. Most of the studies regarding real estate investment risk in Taiwan focus on residential markets; thus, this paper investigates commercial real estate markets using different VaR models to determine the degree of risk, distinguishing further between direct investment markets and indirect investment markets like REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust). The result of this study reveals that direct real estate investment involves higher risks than indirect real estate investment. Furthermore, there was hardly any difference in investment risk when using either static or dynamic VaR models in the computations after using Back Testing. Finally, this study employs Sharp Ratio to calculate commercial real estate investment performance covering the period between June 2007 and March 2009. Direct real estate investment shows firmness during economic downturns or stock market crashes unlike indirect real estate investment like REITs which follows stock market trends. This phenomenon may be due to Agency Problem and Systematic Risk in Taiwan’s REITs market. Therefore this study suggests that when investing in REITs one has to take into account the risks and problems in order to avoid unnecessary investment losses.

我國公部門出租不動產時，其租賃契約中之終止條件及續約條件等約定，與私部門間租賃契約頗有落差。而依據不動產估價技術規則第129 條規定：「不動產之租金估計應考慮契約內容、租期長短、使用目的、稅費負擔、租金水準、變遷狀態、租約更新、變更條件及其他相關因素估計之。」表示在訂定租金時需將契約內容及可能影響因素納入考量才符合公帄原則，然公部門租賃契約中之租金訂定是否將此等特殊條件納入考量，仍有待驗證。此部分在過去文獻中較少著墨，有鑑於此，本研究欲探討租賃契約中特殊條件(如單方面停止契約之權利)對租金之影響。 本研究先以特徵價格理論為基礎，建構複迴歸模型探討影響租金之因素，發現賦予出租方可逕為終止契約之權利，對商用不動產租金具有顯著影響；再進一步以二項式評價模式分析因終止契約條件不同，在租賃契約中隱含的實質選擇權價值變化，模擬結果發現租金成長率愈高，選擇權價值愈高；無風險利率愈高，選擇權價值愈低。研究結果符合選擇權理論，除了指出目前公部門資產租賃契約宜考量具特殊條件時租金之公帄性外，亦可提供爾後租約中含特殊條件時之租金定價參考。 / Rent is affected by various factors, including macro-economic, regional, individual and other related factors such as termination or renewal options. Public sectors in Taiwan prefer using template leasing contract for standardization concerns. The template leasing contract includes some terms favorable to lessors, such as termination option for lessors. The study focuses on the term to terminate the contract for lessors, which is especially considered imposing operation risk on tenants. This study at first employed the multi-regression model to examine factors affecting the rent level. Results show that the rent is significantly affected by the termination term for lessors besides other individual, regional and macro-economic variables. We further applied the binomial option pricing model to simulate how the value of leasing contract is affected by the termination options. Results show that the more the rent tends to grow, the higher value the termination term is; and the higher the interest rate, the lower value the termination term is. Results of this study provide precious implications for rent pricing as the contracts are embedded with the termination option.

本文主要在探討與捷運共構商用不動產市場開發模式之研究，期能參考國外經驗及以市場調查與潛在業者訪談方式，建立商用不動產之市場分析模式，作為開發者投資開發時之產品規劃依據，並評估以開發者之企業文化及潛在業者之經營意願，建議全案之營運或銷售模式，及進行開發效益分析與比較。 經以機場捷運A8車站為例進行研究，獲致結論主要為：捷運共構之商用不動產乃政府衡量車站用地以徵收方式取得困難，遂以鼓勵民間(地主及投資開發者)投資、參與公共建設方式，由政府與民間共享開發效益，達到三贏局面之最佳開發模式，由財務及其他各方面分析效益得知，政府除可免去取得私有土地紛爭或時程延宕外，亦可透過共同開發，挹注重大交通建設經費，民間亦可經由參與公共建設共享獎勵及開發效益，獲取高於土地被徵收時之利益，為一值得效法與推廣之開發模式。 惟開發者應在投資開發前，審慎評估個案之市場定位及投資效益，以作為規劃設計及將來營運模式之參考，避免規劃錯誤造成將來營運或產銷之效益不彰，影響投資報酬，並可作為前期招商之依據，因此建立可靠的商用不動產市場分析方式甚為重要。本文主要重點在於以個案分析進行商用不動產市場開發模式之研究，以作為後續開發相關案例之參考。 / This article is to explore the MRT structure of the commercial real estate’s market model of development. With drawing on foreign experience, the market research and interviews with potential operators, we can establish the commercial real estate market analysis model, as developer’s product planning principles when develop. And according to the corporate culture and potential industry management, it will be recommended to the case of operations or sales model, and to develop effective analysis and comparison. Taking the co-structure building of A8 MRT station to the airport as a case study, to achieve the main conclusions are: To avoid the difficulities of acquiring private land, the government submits to encourage private investment (landlord and investment developers) to participate in public construction, share benefit to both the government and private. The MRT structure of commercial real estate is the best model of development to have a win-win situation. From financial and other aspects of effection, the government could dismiss the disputes of acquiring private land and avoiding the time-delay of engineering development. By co-structure of MRT and the commercial real estate building, the government could inject major transportation infrastructure funding, people can also enable the sharing through participation in public construction and development of effective incentive to get higher than the interest of the land acquired. Thus it is resumed a worthy example to follow and a promotion of the development model. However, developers should evaluate assessment of the case of market position and investment results carefully in investment before development, and be a reference business model for future planning and design, so as not to cause an affected or inefficient investment returns of future operation and marketing sales because of planning errors, and also can be used as a basis for merchants. So how to set up a commercial real estate market analysis methods is important. This article focuses on commercial real estate market to establish a development model, as a reference for follow-up development of related cases.