Tracing the history back to the 17th century, Taiwan had already started trade with other countries then due to excellent location and convenient marine transportation in the oceans. Such great qualifications stress Taiwan's importance in the international regime. This thesis includes 6 chapters. Besides the introduction in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 is the description of data sources and gives a picture of the then background. Chapter 3 describes the importance of China's trade market from Taiwan's point of view. This chapter covers Taiwan's trade dependence, export dependence and import dependence on China. Also exports-imports ratio of Taiwan's trade with China is also addressed. It displays the rise and fall of China's share of Taiwan's exports, imports or total trade volume. When Taiwan just opened its ports in 1860, China was Taiwan's most important export market. However, the volume of Taiwan's exports to China shrank dramatically in 1902 during Japanese colonial rule and Taiwan's main export markets switched from China to Japan. After the recovery of Taiwan, China and Taiwan maintained a close trade relationship under the Nationalist Government administration. After then, the two sides were separate for almost 40 years. When both of them opened to each other, Taiwan's exports to China have multiplied. China became Taiwan's largest export market in 2002. As for Taiwan's imports from China, it hardly fluctuated. Even in 2005, China's share of Taiwan's imports was still only around 10%. Chapter 4 and 5 address the changes in the trade commodities between China and Taiwan. They display the rise and fall of the trade items and following the description give a general picture of that after 1988. Tea and sugar covered over 90% of Taiwan's exports in late 19th century. The main export market was China. In Japanese colonial rule, sugar and rice was the most important goods. They occupied almost 70% percent of Taiwan's exports and the export destination was Japan. Other export goods such as sub-agricultural products, fishery products, textile products and industrial products were not as important as tea, sugar and rice. In Chapter 4, changes of Taiwan's economic structure were also discussed. As for the imports, agricultural products, fertilizer, industrial products, textile products and other daily living products accounted for around 40%~50% of the total imports. The import goods are more various than export goods. In the last section of Chapter 5, policy evolution of the two sides is also addressed. Chapter 6 is the conclusion of the tables and figures. Future perspectives are also given in this part.

自中國大陸1979年開始採行經濟改革及門戶開放政策以來，吸引大量的外資進入及大幅拓展貿易，使其經濟得以快速成長。然而，我國政府自1987年11月開放民眾赴大陸探親以來，我方之大陸政策有相當大的轉變，採取較以前開放的態度來看待民間與大陸之間的交往，而使得兩岸的投資與貿易成長迅速。故本論文主要研究兩岸的投資與貿易之互動，藉以試圖瞭解兩岸經貿交流的真實情況。 　　本論文的研究架構如下： 　　第一章　緒論。 　　第二章　文獻探討。 　　第三章　臺海兩岸經貿關係的演變與現況。 　　第四章　臺商赴大陸投資的發展與現況。 　　第五章　臺商赴大陸投資與兩岸貿易互動。 　　第六章　臺商赴大陸投資對兩岸在主要出口市場競爭之影響。 　　第七章　結論。 　　根據本論文的研究結果顯示，臺商赴大陸投資與其所衍生之產值約為一比三，而帶動之貿易量則為投資金額的一點五倍，可見兩岸的投資與貿易之互動相當顯著。此外，本論文的研究也發現，臺商赴大陸投資並不一定只對臺灣地區的經濟發展造成負面的影響，故國人對此一現象不須太過驚慌。最後，並認為政府應多加強對大陸臺商的管理與輔導，使其不會對臺灣本地產業造成過大的衝擊，而使臺灣地區的經濟維持蓬勃發展。

近年來台灣製造業委外代工至大陸已是十分普遍的現象。從國外購買中間財貨、到國外設立跨國公司、購買國外製成品以國內的品牌進行銷售、或到國外找尋特殊投資關係合夥人等，都包含在委外代工的定義內。委外代工帶來了二個值得探討的議題：第一是委外代工對勞動市場的影響，包括失業問題和相對薪資的變化；第二，委外代工和經濟邊緣化問題之間存在尚未澄清的關聯，例如委外代工是不是會導致台灣經濟邊緣化、產業空洞化？因此，本論文分成兩大獨立的結構分別討論上述問題。 關於委外代工對勞動市場的影響，文獻上大多觀察下列現象（Feenstra and Hanson, 1995; Wood,1995）：製造業的就業規模是否縮減、整體製造業的技術勞動就業比例是否逐漸增加、整體製造業的非技術勞動就業比例是否逐漸下降、以及技術勞動和非技術勞動之間的薪資差距是否也逐漸擴大（反應出就業比例的改變）。本文對台灣的勞動市場進行研究，的確發現上述現象的產生。根據研究結果顯示，政府沒有理由限制傳統產業外移到大陸，反而要創造更好的高科技環境，積極地留住台灣的高科技產業。亦即，不同的產業需要不同的產業政策加以因應，雙向產業政策將是需要的。例如傳統產業，政府可以將政策提升到「委外代工國」的立場考量，讓獲利率低、生產不效率的產業委由大陸製造；對高科技產業政策政府則可試著採取「被委外代工國」的立場，積極創造更科技的產業環境，留住台灣科技產業和保住台灣科技產業代工王國的版圖。 對委外代工與台灣邊緣化議題的探討，主要源起於泛藍和泛綠在兩次總統大選中的兩岸政策的爭議─是否要「三通」。事實上，針對台灣是否會被邊緣化兩大陣營均尚未整理出一個完整的說明。透過Krugman and Venables（1995）模型闡述可以清楚地了解：邊緣化只是運輸成本下降的一個過程，不會是最終的結果。同時，運輸成本的下降並不是會造成邊緣化的唯一決定因子。產業關聯性和產品之間的替代程度都扮演相當重要的角色。因此，對不同產業設定特定政策才能達到抗邊緣化的效果。 / Outsourcing is the current trend between Taiwan and Mainland China in recent decade. Inclusive of importing intermediate inputs, setting up multinational firms, purchasing final goods produced abroad, outsourcing brings two topics worthy to discuss. My thesis is structured into two independent projects: one is to discuss the effects of outsourcing on unemployment and changes in relative wages, and the other focuses on the issue of whether outsourcing leads to Taiwan deindustrialization. The main findings in the first project are consistent with the major conclusions suggested by several studies（Feenstra and Hanson, 1995; Wood,1995）that: declining share of manufacturing employment in total employment, increasing share of skilled workers’ in total manufacturing employment and in total wage bill, while the converse in unskilled workers. Therefore, we have no reasons to limit the unprofitable and traditional industries to move out. What we should do is to develop and expand the higher-skilled sector and to encourage high-technology industries to upgrade the production with the most comparative advantage. Different industrial policies applicable to different features of each industry are necessary. To announce a rough and uniform policy will probably do more harms than goods. What unearthed from the second project is that concerns of economic periphery voiced by Pan-KMT and Pan-DPP alliances did not tell the full story. Krugman and Venables（1995）can be applied to show that economic periphery is just one of the points in the process of a dynamic development with reducing transportation cost. Besides, transportation cost is not the only contributor to “core and periphery” pattern. Share of intermediate input and elasticity of substitution for manufactured goods are also playing important roles. Therefore, different industries should be applicable for different policy arrangement.

本文之目的在於分析台灣與中國雙邊貿易之主要決定因素，並深入探討造成台灣對中國長期出現大量順差的主要原因。本文之實證模型與過去文獻主要差異在於分別就進出口供給與需求建立聯立方程式，推導成縮減式，分析進出口供需的相互影響。在台灣出口供給方面，本文考慮了國內投入、進口中間投入、台灣外人直接投資(FDI)及研發創新等因素。在台灣進口需求方面，除了考慮實質所得、雙邊匯率，本文也考慮了第三國匯率及雙向FDI之影響。 本文實證分析採用自1996年1月至2009年12月期間月資料。實證結果顯示雙邊實質所得、台灣對中國直接投資與台灣研發創新的確皆造成台灣對中國進出口之增加。然而，各國對台灣直接投資，卻造成台灣對中國進出口的減少。至於實質匯率的結果，在台灣對中國之出口方面，當新台幣相對於人民幣貶值，確實造成對中國出口增加。在中國市場，第三國價格相對中國價格上揚，造成台灣對中國出口有負向影響，此顯示台灣出口財與第三國出口財為互補關係。在台灣自中國之進口方面，當新台幣相對於人民幣貶值，的確造成自中國進口減少。在台灣市場，第三國價格相對於台灣價格上揚，造成台灣自中國進口有正向影響，表中國出口財與第三國出口財為替代關係。此外，本文發現，進口中間投入的相對價格上揚，將造成台灣自中國進口減少。 總而言之，本文研究結果顯示，除了實質所得以及雙邊匯率之外，第三國匯率、雙向FDI以及研發在兩岸進出口貿易上也扮演相當重要角色。此結果有助於瞭解台灣對中國持續順差之背後原因。 / The objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of bilateral trade across the Taiwan Straits with a view toward exploring the causes of the Taiwan’s persistent large trade surplus with China. Our empirical model differs from most previous studies in the following aspects: we construct a system of equations to examine the demand-supply relationship ; on the supply side, the effects of inward FDI, the cost of intermediate imports on Taiwan’s production and R&D innovation are considered ; on the demand side, in additional to bilateral real exchange rates and real income, this paper also considers the indirect effects of exchange rate of third countries and bilateral FDI. The data covering January, 1996 to December, 2009 are used in our empirical analysis. The empirical evidence indicates that the bilateral real income, Taiwan’s real direct investment to China and R&D innovation have positive effects on Taiwan’s exports towards and imports from China, however, the inward FDI to Taiwan presents negative effects. As for real exchange rate, it appears that Taiwan’s export to China would increase along with the real depreciation of the NTD against the RMB. In addition, the rising relative price of the third country against the price of China would result in a negative effect of Taiwan’s export to China, representing that the goods of Taiwan and the third country are complements. On the other hand, Taiwan’s import from China would decrease along with the real depreciation of the NTD against the RMB. In addition, the rising relative price of the third country against the price of Taiwan would bring about a positive effect of Taiwan’s import from China. This reveals that the goods of China and the third country are substitutes. Moreover, a negative effect on the import of Taiwan from China appears when the cost of intermediate imports of Taiwan increases. In sum, this study illustrates that, in addition to real income and bilateral exchange rates, the exchange rates of third countries, FDI inflows and outflows and innovation have also played an important role in determining bilateral trade across the Taiwan Straits. It will help understand the driving forces behind Taiwan’s persistent trade surplus against China.