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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

兩岸產業關聯效果與貿易效果對台灣經濟成長影響之估計

盧鈺雯 Unknown Date (has links)
自從中國大陸經濟改革開放之後,兩岸經貿交流愈來愈密集,台灣對中國大陸進出口比重逐年增加,中國大陸對台灣的經濟有一定的影響力。本研究利用Akita所發展出之擴展的成長因素分解公式來探討1997-2002年兩岸產業關聯效果及經貿效果,並進行二項政策模擬,一為當台灣對中國大陸進出口同時增減時對台灣經濟成長的影響,二為當中國大陸產值增加或減少1%和2%時對台灣經濟成長的影響。 實證結果顯示:Akita模型經濟成長因素分解效果之探討,從台灣國內最終需求、其他出口擴張、中國大陸對我國之最終需求、進口替代、台灣投入係數等五個效果以看,可以發現電機及電子產品對台灣經濟發展最為重要,其次是商業及餐飲旅館業。 政策模擬估計結果顯示:整體而言,開放中國大陸進口和對中國大陸出口,對台灣經濟發展是有利的,尤其是石化原料及其製品業,但仍有不獲利的產業,其中受害最大的是礦產業。另外,隨著中國大陸產值增加,台灣整體的產值成長率有遞減的現象。受挑戰的產業為其他製品業、石化原料及其製品業與電機及電子產品業。因此針對產業的特性,考慮兩岸產業結構以及比較利益前提下,採取適度之產業政策及兩岸對策對台灣經濟發展是必要的。
2

委外代工、國際分工對貿易傳遞效果及母國工資不均度之影響 / The Impact of Outsourcing and International Fragmentation on Trade Transmission and Wage Inequality

林晉勗, Lin, Jin-Xu Unknown Date (has links)
本文內容包含三個主題相近的議題,首先我們探討在貿易互動的情況下,國際能源價格衝擊所帶來的跨國衝擊效果,接著根據多個年度的資料,延用第一個議題的模型分析跨國衝掔效果的演變,以及這樣的演變與貿易趨勢之間的關係,最後則探討委外代工的貿易活動對經濟體系勞動市場的影響,企圖尋找台灣近年工資不均度逐漸下降的原因。 由第一個議題的分析結果可以發現,若要有效降低原物料價格上漲所帶來的衝擊,可從國內高耗能的產業 (如石油煉製品業) 著手,藉由技術移轉、跨國產業合作或研發投入等方式提升耗能產業的技術,改善生產結構;此外,藉由分散進口來源,可以有效降低進口拉動的物價上漲;最後,在國際能源價格上漲時,公用事業部門的價格管制,可以有效控制物價上漲,尤其對於天然資源缺乏的國家效果較為顯著,且愈多國家採行價格管制策略時,對降低物價衝擊的效果愈好。。 由第二個議題的分析可得知,各國的個別產業在三個不同的年度受到相同衝擊時,當產業的中間投入裡,能源及石油煉製品的占比愈高,則價格衝擊反應便愈大,這樣的影響效果主要反應了直接效果。若仔細檢視國內的各產業委外代工活動對價格衝擊效果的影響,則可以發現在產業別資料時,兩者間的關係並不明顯,但若將分析層級提高到整體國家的話,便可以發現委外代工比例或是國際專業分工程度愈高的國家,其受到的物價衝擊似乎稍微較低,而此一部份則是反應了跨國貿易傳遞效果。 最後,由第三個分析議題可以發現,台灣過去25年來技能與非技能勞工的工資差距逐漸拉近,這樣的趨勢與近年文獻所觀察的結果有明顯的不同,仔細檢視其中的端倪,我們可以發現台灣工資不均度雖然與相對勞動雇用仍為正相關,但工資不均度卻受到委外代工與對外直接投資負向的影響,其中,僅電子電機及機械類別的委外代工對工資不均度具有影響顯著,但民生工業及重工業類別卻不顯著,這樣的結果與近年台灣電子業發展的模式有關,雖然此產業委外生產比例日益攀升,但隨著台灣電子業在全球舉足輕重的地位,產值逐年大幅成長,雖然其中零組件愈來愈多仰賴委由開發中國家生產,但於台灣進行組裝仍需大量非技能勞工,因此委外生產將使工資不均度的情形減緩。另外,從資料中也發現,近年台灣日益減緩的工資不均度情形,主要是由於相對勞動供給的增量大於相對勞動需求所致。 / This thesis contents three approximate subjects for discussion. First of all, we confer the interaction of trades when the rise of international raw material price influences multinational; according to the data taken from many years, we employed the model of the first subject to analyze the development of inter-regional impact, its effect and also the relationship between the development and the trade tendency. Lastly, the influence of outsourcing towards the labor market in the economy will be discussed, in order to search for the reason, which is responsible for the chronicle decrease of wage inequality. The result of the first discussion shows us, to slow down the price impact which is caused by the rise of the raw material, we can undertake national companies with high energy consumption industries (e.g. petrochemical industry); on these excuses: Technique shifting, international industrial cooperation or investment of researches and so on, the technology of high energy consuming industries could be promoted to improve the production structure. Further than that, dispersing import resources could efficiently reduce the price increase caused by import. The price control at public utility could bridle price rise effectively, when international energy price is arising. This is especially obvious in countries with lack of natural resource, not forget to mention the more nations introduce price control tactic, the better it is to reduce the price impact. By the analysis of the second discussion, it is said when each country in each industry at three different years experienced the same impact, the higher the industrial’s usage of energy and petro-products for intermediate inputs, the strong is the reaction of price impact and this influence mainly responded to the direct effect. If we examine the relationship between price impact and proportion of outsourcing, we could notice that the relationship is not very conspicuous in industrial level data. But if we move the analyze level higher to the whole nation, we could discover that the higher the percentage of outsourcing is, the lower is the resulted price impact. And this is because of the transmission effect of the international trade. Last but not least, the third discussion let us know, that in the past 25 years in Taiwan, the wage inequality of high skill and low skill labor was reducing chronically. Such a trend is clearly different from the result which is shown in the recently studies. Even the wage inequality is positive proportioned with the relative labor employed, but it has been negatively influenced by outsourcing and outward direct investments. The negative relationship counts to the most outstanding in electronics and electrical machinery industries, but civil industry and heavy metal industry is not much remarkable. This result is related to the expand model of Taiwan in the recent years. Although, the percentage of outsourcing grows day by day, but with the importance of Taiwan’s electronics industry, the production arises substantially annually, even though more and more of its components is sourcing from development countries, but we still need many non-skilled personnel to fabricate those in Taiwan. That’s why outsourcing will decrease the wage inequality. Further than that, the recent wage inequality decrease in Taiwan is mainly effected by the surplus of relative labor supply.

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