本文主要探討能源價格對於碳權價格的影響。前半部份以歸納文獻的方式，整理出溫室氣體的管制政策及影響碳權價格的因素。後半部份以歐洲氣候交易所的碳權期貨價格作為研究樣本，首先探討碳權價格與能源價格的關聯性，再者為碳權價格與能源間價格消長之關係。除了以價格走勢圖來比對觀察之外，並以實證分析佐證。結果指出能源價格的改變對於碳權價格有顯著的影響，而能源間價格的消長對於碳權價格則有落後影響的現象。

2007年諾貝爾和平獎頒給了美國前副總統高爾和聯合國跨政府氣候變遷小組(IPCC)，表揚他們致力於全球氣候變遷的議題。2005年2月「京都議定書」正式生效，目的在削減二氧化碳等六種溫室氣體的排放量，國際航空並未列在削減溫室氣體的範圍，但委由國際民航組織(ICAO)負責國際航空溫室氣體排放減量，這顯示在「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(UNFCCC)」架構外，以產業合作模式來削減溫室氣體在政治上是可行的。飛機引擎將二氧化碳、氧化氮、碳氫化合物、水蒸氣、硫酸鹽、煙塵顆粒直接排放於大氣中，這些噴射物和大氣的成分產生複雜的化學變化，改變大氣的成分，所排放的高溫水氣在對流層凝結為飛行雲和卷雲，除二氧化碳確定會造成溫室效應外，其餘排放的廢氣尚缺乏科學證據和溫室效應有關。國際航空既有「京都議定書」不須限制溫室氣體排放的法律基礎，且大部分排放的廢氣尚缺乏影響溫室效應的科學證據以致航空產業對削減溫室氣體排放量的行動並不積極，但航空的旅客每年以約5%的速度成長，航空未來是廢氣排放增加最快的產業。在歐美國家積極進行大氣科學的研究以了解溫室效應的成因，台灣近日宣佈將加入全球最大的溫室效應氣體觀測平台MOZAIC，航空產業有必要採取負責的行動減緩溫室氣體排放量。 本研究主要蒐集國內外相關的學術研究資料，波音公司的環保政策及公司專業人員的意見，歸納出航空產業改善溫室效應的對策，並以英航為個案，探討其以排放交易體系及碳補償體系改善溫室氣體排放的實效來驗證其可行性，最後探討在ICAO架構下，航空產業如何循序漸進的進行溫室氣體減量的國際合作。本研究旨在回答下列問題： 1. 航空產業對溫室效應的影響？ 2. 航空產業在科技面、營運操作面、經濟政策面可以減緩溫室氣體排放的對策有哪些？哪一個對策成本較低，較有效？ 3. 航空產業相關的企業組織中，誰最適合做為溫室氣體排放負責的實體？ 4. 以利害關係人的觀點，評估經濟政策面的解決方案在經濟面的衝擊為何？ 5. 在ICAO的架構下如何進行航空產業溫室氣體減量的國際合作？ 本研究得到的結論如下： 1. 經由航空科技的研發，是削減溫室氣體排放量的根本方法，因為它有利於所有利害關係人，但新一代的航空科技研發通常需要10-15年以上的時間，以及充滿不確定性，所以在短、中期不是削減溫室氣體排放的有效方法。 2. 改善航管系統及飛航操作的方法在法律、技術及經濟上所面臨的挑戰比較小，在短、中期就可以減少8-18%燃油的消耗，不過長期而言，不足以抵消航空產業每年成長所增加的廢氣排放量。 3. 排放交易體系是以市場機制運作的碳交易市場，航空產業在開放式的排放交易體系可用最低的減緩成本達到排放減量目標。排放交易體系經過英航實際運作證明它是可行的方法，既可以達到減量的目標又不會妨礙航空產業的成長。 4. ICAO是1944年依據芝加哥公約成立的，它的會員國適用”無差異原則”，聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(UNFCCC)的會員國適用”共同但有差異的責任”，所以京都議定書也只對Annex I的國家限制溫室氣體排放量。在會員國不同意單方面擴展排放交易體系下，ICAO要求在雙方同意下才能將他國的航班併到自己的排放交易體系，這使得歐盟在2012年企圖單方面擴展排放交易體系到所有進出歐盟的航班變得不大可能，這對歐盟積極推動溫室氣體減量的行動是一項挫折。 5. 飛機引擎所排放的廢氣，除二氧化碳確定會造成溫室效應外，其餘排放的廢氣尚缺乏科學證據會造成溫室效應。這種缺乏科學證據的氣候協商在國際間很難達成共識，所以在ICAO及IATA的排放交易體系都只建議限制二氧化碳的排放量，但二氧化碳只佔航空器排放廢氣的37%，這種溫室氣體的限制並不具環境的有效性。 6. 全球暖化已成為全球矚目的議題，各國紛紛採取「節能減碳」措施，台灣也不例外，京都議定書顯然不能有效解決溫室效應問題。在2012年後替代的新合約必定增加溫室氣體限制的國家及產業，也有可能包含航空產業。航空公司可以從參與碳補償體系、和政府簽署自願環保合約、參與其他產業的自願排放交易體系，先取得碳市場的交易經驗，日後可在UNFCCC或ICAO的架構下承諾溫室氣體排放減量。 / In 2007, the Nobel Peace prize was awarded to the former Vice President of the United States, Al Gore and the IPCC for their great efforts in global climate change issue. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16, 2005; this treaty assigns mandatory emission limitations for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) to the signatory nations. International aviation GHG emissions are not included in Kyoto Protocol, as it will be addressed through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) according to Article 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol. This indicates that it is politically agreed upon to use a sector-based approach to limit GHG emission beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). During flight, aircraft engines emit carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, oxides of sulfur, water vapor, hydrocarbons and particles. These emissions alter the chemical composition of the atmosphere in a variety of ways. Except for carbon dioxide, the other emissions from aircraft in flight are still under investigation for their impact on global climate change. Passenger airlines growth is anticipated to increase about 5% annually, so the aviation industry is expected to be the fastest growing emissions contributor in the future. Therefore, the aviation industry should take responsible actions to alleviate GHG emission. For exploring the root cause of global climate change, European and American scientists are leading the investigation of the atmosphere, and the government of Taiwan recently announced they will support MOZAIC in their observation of the north Pacific atmosphere. This research is performed by reviewing the articles published by researchers, the briefing material from aircraft manufacturer and the expertise from companies. The conclusions are that the methods are useful to alleviate GHG emission for aviation industry. Meanwhile, British Airways was selected to be the case study to verify their implementation of environmental policy. Finally, an approach under ICAO is being introduced for the aviation industry to alleviate GHG emission through global collaboration. This study is to answer the following questions： 1. What is the environmental impact by the emissions from the aviation industry? 2. What methods are available from technology, flight operations and economic policies to alleviate GHG emission? Which one is more economic and effective? 3. Who is the accountable entity in the aviation industry to alleviate GHG emissions? 4. What is the impact on economics by the method of implementation of economic policies to alleviate GHG emissions based on the stakeholders’ viewpoints? 5. How does the aviation industry collaborate globally to alleviate GHG emissions under ICAO？ The conclusions from the research are as follows. 1. The basic method for the aviation industry to resolve GHG emissions is by the use of new fuel or engine technologies. Normally, it takes 10 to 15 years to pioneer new technologies for aviation with uncertainty, so it is not an effective method in short and mid term to alleviate GHG emissions. 2. The improvement of air traffic management and flight operation presents little difficulty in law, technologies and economics to alleviate GHG emissions. This method can reduce 8-18% of fuel comsumption in short and mid term, but it can not offset the growing emissions by air traffic annually. 3. The Aviation Industry can reach the lowest alleviation cost to meet emissions target by open emission trading scheme. Emission trading is not only environmentally effective, but also does not hinder the growth of aviation industry in the future. 4. The ICAO, the state members apply to the principle of non-discrimination, however the UNFCCC, the state members apply to the principle of common but differential responsibility. The Kyoto Protocol just restricts the GHG emissions for Annex I countries. ICAO is obliged to request the integration of foreign operators in the emission trading scheme “under a mutually agreed basis”. 5. Except for carbon dioxide, the other emissions from aircraft are under investigation for their impact on environment. The emission of carbon dioxide is only 37% of all emissions by aviation industry. The ICAO and IATA only recommend to restrict carbon dioxide emissions, so it is not environmentally effective. 6. The following treaty after 2012 should involve more countries and industries for GHG emission restriction, and the aviation industry might be involved in the new treaty. Therefore, airlines should seek the opportunity to participate voluntarily in the carbon trading market to gain experience in this strategy. Then, airlines can commit to reduce GHG emission under UNFCCC or IACO in the future.

隨著全球溫室氣體排放量的增長，氣候變遷帶來的衝擊益加嚴重，京都議定書的三種彈性減量機制為人類對抗氣候變遷帶來了新的契機，「碳交易」及「碳市場」於焉而生。為與國際的潮流接軌，立法院於2015年6月15日三讀通過了《溫室氣體減量及管理法》，嗣經總統於同年7月1日公布施行，我國將可藉由「總量管制與排放交易」(Cap and Trade)的實施，建立一個強制性的碳市場。本論文以市場規模最大的歐盟及中、美兩大排碳國為例，探討它們碳市場發展的經驗，並將重點聚焦在其歷史背景、制度面的設計、碳交易的情形及執行減量的成效上，希望從中找出我國碳交易可以學習與借鑑的地方。 歐、美及中國的碳市場各在不同的背景之下產生，歐盟及中國以強制性市場為主，美國則以自願性市場為主。本論文發現，歐盟排放交易體系(EU ETS)及中國的7個碳試點，其發展有賴明確的溫室氣體減量目標與碳交易的強制規定作為基礎，此正是美國碳市場所缺乏的。芝加哥氣候交易所(CCX)本質上其實類似歐盟及中國的碳市場，它們最大的差別在於：前者可由企業自行決定加入與否，後兩者則強制達一定排放量的企業加入。CCX失敗的例子，恰恰說明了缺乏國家明確方向的指引，單靠企業憑良心加入的自願性市場，發展仍然有限。 最後，本論文提出對我國碳交易後續規劃方向的7項建議，以及後續論文研究方向的3項建議。 / With the rapid growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, impacts of climate change become more serious. To reduce GHG emissions, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. Various carbon markets have been structured at the domestic or international level, especially since the introduction of three flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. To demonstrate Taiwan’s commitment to combating climate change in line with the global trend, the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction and Management Act was promulgated by the president on 1 July 2015. It provides a legal basis for establishing a cap and trade system, and a compliance carbon market will be structured in Taiwan. In this paper, we consider the world’s three major carbon markets, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and the Chinese seven official ETS pilots. This study seeks to provide some suggestions for future carbon transactions in Taiwan from their evolution experiences. The discussions developed in this study will focus on their historical backgrounds, system designs, allowance transactions, and emission reductions achievement. By comparing their evolution experiences, we find critical success factors behind carbon markets. Finally, suggestions for Taiwan’s government and future researches are presented.