高密度發展的都市型態已成為世界各國為追求永續發展的都市規劃方式。對政策規劃者來說，他們關心的議題之一為高密度都市發展後房價的變動是否會影響居民對住的福利水準，過去文獻之實證研究亦發現高密度發展將產生房價上漲或下跌的效果，此引發本研究欲得知高密度指標對台北市房價將如何影響之動機。然而高密度都市發展政策的實施對各所得階層居民的影響為何若以普通最小平方迴歸分析將無法得知，所以本研究以分量迴歸進行分析，增加變數的可解釋能力。 因此本研究以台北市十二個行政區為空間範圍，利用民國九十三年至九十六年間共1268筆房屋交易實例案例，作為實證研究之樣本。主題變數方面以容積率、是否為住宅大樓及人口密度來分析各變數對房價之影響。藉由普通最小平方迴歸及分量迴歸分析結果發現，高密度之都市發展將造成住宅平均價格下跌，對中低總價住宅亦產生價格下跌的效果，因此高密度都市發展型態將增加居民福利水準，增進都市整體效益。 / Nowadays, most nations in the world has thought of the urban form of high density development as a mean to pursue sustainable development. For policy planner, what they care is whether high density development would influence residents about the variation of welfare for living. Literatures of past empirical research also show that high density development will have the effects of rising or falling on housing prices, which leads to the motive of this study and also leads to a better understanding of how high density indicators would impact housing prices in Taipei City. However, what’s the impact for every income class through the implication of this urban development policy is impossible to know if we use OLS models, therefore, our study adopts Quantile Regression to enhance the interpretable abilities for every variable. Accordingly, our study uses 1268 property-trading-records from 2004 to 2007 as samples, which all locate within 12 districts in Taipei City. We use floorage ratio, residential building and population density as main variables to analyze their impacts on housing prices. The result shows that high density development will both lead to falling of average housing prices and middle and low housing prices. Consequently, the urban form of high density development will enhance the level of residents’ welfare and improve the benefits for all urban area.

本研究以不動產估價技術規則第19條第7項與第20條之規定，引用相似無關迴歸模式、多變量迴歸模式與典型相關分析等計量模式，對金融機構所做的擔保品估價進行驗證、預測及控制分析。 擔保品估價中會產生兩價，即擔保品的評估市場價格與評估擔保值（價），大部分的人都認為兩價存在一個比率關係。傳統的迴歸分析估價模式係由一組價格影響因素影響一個不動產價格，上述情形是否可能由同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格？本研究實證結果顯示，在95％統計信賴水準下，有兩個不動產價格受同一組價格因素影響的結果。既然驗證存在同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，是否有更具效率的計量估價模式呢？典型相關分析係透過兩組變項之相關關係建構計量模式，除可再度驗證同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，並可如同因素分析或主成份分析的功能，對兩組變項各做變項縮減的工作，達到對變項去蕪存菁的效果。 / This thesis is based on Article 19 No 7 and Article 20 of the Real Estate Appraisal Regulation. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Multivariate Regression Model and Econometric Model and so on econometric model are applied. In addition, collateral valuations done by financial institutions are verified, predicted and analyzed. In collateral valuations, there are two-value references: assessed market value and assessed accommodation value. Majority believe that there is a ratio between these two values. The traditional regression analysis of the valuation model is having one set of pricing factors to have impact on the real estate price. However, is it possible that one set of pricing factors will affect two real estate prices? The findings approve that, under statistical confidence level with 95%, more than two real estate prices can be influenced by one set of pricing factors. Further more, this thesis also examines if there are other econometric valuation models to be applied? The canonical correlation analysis is to build a calculation model to analyze correlation between two variables. Other than examining one set of pricing factors can influence two real estate prices, this analysis also provides a similar function of the factor analysis or principal analysis to reduce variables caused by two sets of variable.

如何客觀有系統的估計公告土地現值一直是土地估價研究領域的熱 門話題，目前公告土地現值的查估，多數以區段地價作為宗地地價，受限 人為主觀與人力不足的缺點，查估的結果並不一定能有效反應各區段間地 價差異。由於以往房地產實證研究的領域中，特徵方程式一直是受到廣泛 運用的工具，然多數著重於各別宗地價格進行模型設計，較少以地價區段 範圍建立估價模型。本研究以三峽鎮住宅區民國89 至98 年區段地價進行 實證分析。變數的選取主要是配合「地價調查估計規則」所規範影響普通 住宅用地區域因素基準，並將全部變項納入複迴歸模型中，先測試綜合影 響程度，再將未符合預期及篩選合理顯著變項重新建立區段地價估價模 型。實證顯示接近公車站牌之程度、區段內道路規劃及開闢建程度、景觀 有無、保排水良否、地勢是否高低起伏、至國中小距離、至市場超市距離、 至三峽老街距離、停車是否便利、至墓地殯儀館火葬場距離及是否具發展 潛力等11 項變數達顯著水準，於20%內之Hit Rate 達91.18%，MAPE 亦僅 7.9%，均能符合預期表現。本文透過區段地價估價模型之建立，提供電腦 輔助區段地價估價可行方案，藉以增進公告土地現值評估客觀及科學化程 度。 / How to estimate the announced current land value objectively and systematically is always a hot issue in land valuation research field. And, since the announced current land value is the foundation for levying the land value increment tax and compensation when land expropriation, the risk of unfairness might happen if the announced current land value is not objective and systematical. Under the announced current land value system, most parcel land values are produced using the district land value. Although decades of valuation experience by assessors, the district land value would not necessarily reflect fundamental value effectively. Taking into consideration of the difference between the degree the zoning affect the land value and the heterogeneity characteristic of land, this paper construct district land value model on different zoning. The empirical study region is the residential zoning area in the Sanshia Township, for its landscape with new and old mixed buildings, featuring metropolitan development characteristic, and stable sales transaction volume. The empirical time period is from 2000 to 2009. The district land value estimated from sales, collected from the Shulin Land Office, is the dependent variable. The selection of the independent variables is in line with the region factors of common residential area regulated by “The Regulations on the Land Value Investigation and Estimation” after combining similar attributes for easing the bias possibility from co linearity. The empirical result shows the significant variables are the ratio of constructed road area to total area within the land value district, parking convenience, development potentiality and the distance from bus station, junior, elementary schools, market, service facilities, graveyard, etc. The model fit is good with adj-R2. This paper hopes to increase the automation degree of the announced current land value and make the announced current land value objectively and systematically by establishment of the district land value model.

現行公告土地現值的評估，係採用人工的傳統方法，估價結果誤差甚大且過於主觀，無法達到大量估價客觀、快速、精確之目標。本文首先利用土地經濟理論的分析，探討土地市場價值、交易價格、評估價值之間的關係，釐清常見的混淆概念。並藉由估價比率研究，討論公告現值與市價差距的檢定模型，針對台南市的實際資料進行統計檢定，結果發現平均估價比率落於46.74﹪~48.52﹪之區間，並存在輕微的垂直不公平。 為改進現行公告現值不夠準確之缺失，本研究基於都市經濟理論與估價先驗訊息之基礎，利用特徵價格法與可加性模型建立大量估價模式。實證結果發現，影響台南市地價之因素，以區位、臨街關係、路寬、使用分區最為重要。在部份年度中，亦證實存在基地面積規模不經濟（plattage）現象。 傳統特徵價格法必須預設函數型態，若函數設定錯誤則將使參數估計產生偏誤。可加性模型結合無母數迴歸與母數迴歸之優點，不須預設函數型態、估計結果易於解釋且維持母數迴歸之收斂速度。其可經由修勻法配適出更客觀的函數關係，無論在樣本內與樣本外之估計均較特徵價格法為佳。 研究結果發現，本文所提出的二種估價模式確可達到快速精確的目標，使估價比率接近１，比目前評估效率提高一倍；在公平性方面雖無改善，但亦無嚴重之垂直不公平。其中可加性模型又較特徵價格法為佳，在電腦技術快速進步的今天，應用至大量估價的可行性大為提高，值得後續進一步深入研究。 / The present Announced Land Current Value （ALCV）was evaluated by traditional appraisal method that may result in large errors. Comparing to mass assessment approaches, it is hard to be objective, quick and precise. This research begins with the analysis based on land economic theory to discuss the relation among the market value, sale price and assessed value of land in order to clarify some confusing concepts. Through assessment-sale price ratio study, we analyze the difference between ALCV and sale price, and then use the actual data of Tainan City for empirical study. The results show that the average a-s ratio falls between 46.74%~48.52% with slight vertical inequity. To improve the lack of preciseness and objectivity of the present ALCV, this research uses hedonic price theory and Generalized Additive Model（GAM）based on urban economic theory and appraisal priori information. The results show that location, relations with adjacent streets, road width and zoning are the most influencing factors of land price in Tainan City. During some years, the phenomenon of plattage effect also exits. The function form must be set beforehand in the traditional hedonic pricing, meanwhile parameters bias will occur if the pre-determined function form were wrong. GAM has the advantages of nonparametric regression and parametric regression. The function form needs not to be pre-determined, the empirical results are easy to interpret, and the speed of variable convergence can be maintained. More precise functional relations can also be smoothed by GAM. It is superior to the traditional hedonic price in the sample and out of the sample prediction alike. The results of empirical study show that both of two models can reach the goal of rapidity and preciseness and make the a-s ratio toward 1. As to the equity, although they are not improved very much, the models don't bring serious vertical inequity. However, GAM is better than hedonic pricing when compared to each other. Due to the great progress of computer technology, the application of GAM to mass assessment can be increased greatly and is worthy continuing further study.

過去由於國內住宅市場的資訊並不流通，以致市場上出現的價格資訊相當混亂，就價格的種類來看，各種名目住宅價格間的差異未有明確釐清，使一般人常會對不同的住宅價格產生誤解。就時間序列來看，不同的時間、地區及住宅類型，到底住宅價格的變動如何，也未能有一嚴謹且量化之指標表示。 　　本研究運用標準住宅的概念編製住宅價格指數，所謂標準住宅乃是指一定時間、地區、類型，市場上成交的住宅中，典型的住宅屬性及其數量的組合，也就是說，觀察市場上成交典型住宅的價格變動情形，作為指數編製的基礎，以控制住宅的異質性，再以特徵價格法來求得各屬性的單價以進一步控制品質。另外，由於住宅成交數量變動較大，因此運用裴氏公式作為指數公式，使加權權重的誤差不致太大。 　　由各地區的指數變動趨勢可得到以下幾點結論：首先，一般所認為的三次房地產價格高峰期（62至63年、68至70年、76至78年），從指數的變動來看並不明顯，只有76至78年的上漲趨勢較明顯，在經過幣值平減後，長期趨勢更顯平緩；其次，長期來看，住宅價格持續上漲，部分時期持平或下跌，但幅度及持續時間有限，故所謂房價下跌，其實跌的是上漲率；最後，就上漲幅度來看，台北縣、市的幅度最大，除台北市外，非都市地區（非省轄市）房價的上漲速度較都市地區（省轄市）為高。 　　最後歸納二個造成一般人對住宅價格變動之錯誤印象的原因。主要是品質未加控制，由於品質會影響住宅價格，且消費的住宅品質及數量會隨時間而改變，一般人未察覺此點，而造成對房價上漲的誤解。其次是未考慮幣值，由於「今天的一塊錢不等於明天的一塊錢」，因此以名目價格觀察住宅價格變動的作法，也會造成對房價變動的誤解。

市地重劃係依照都市發展趨勢及都市計畫規劃內容，將一定範圍內畸零細碎不規則之土地，依據法令加以重新整理，重劃區內土地除配合公共設施興建後，其餘可建築用地依原位次分配原則、調整分配原則並留設抵費地後，重新分配予原土地所有權人，其最終目的是地權的調整，而地權調整屬於交易行為，有交易便會有成本，而價格是交易成本的剩餘，在市地重劃開發的過程及後續標得抵費地的土地利用行為中存在交易成本，交易成本的降低可帶來抵費地價格的提升。 重劃完成後各宗抵費地的區位條件與個別條件均不相同，傳統地價影響因素研究多著重於宗地的條件，例如宗地面積、公設可及性、使用分區等，對於土地建築利用與產權整合並無太多著墨，本研究從重劃後建築開發的角度切入，探討以公辦重劃方式所留設的抵費地，其宗地個別條件、土地使用管制、區位、規模及相鄰土地整合難易度，對於交易成本及開發績效有何影響，研究影響抵費地標售價格的因素。 本研究蒐集了林口新市鎮第三期市地重劃區抵費地及相關土地資訊，透過是否建築作為條件篩選，並以189筆合併建築之案例為樣本，運用特徵價格模型，以每平方公尺抵費地標售單價作為應變數，選取13個可能影響抵費地標售價格的應變數，進行實證分析研究。實證結果顯示抵費地的容積率、所面臨最大路寬、面臨主要道路面寬、至學校距離及標售時間等5個因素對於抵費地標售價格呈現正向影響；而抵費地的面積、鄰地權屬複雜度、深度、寬深比等4個因素對於抵費地標售價格呈現負向影響。 公辦市地重劃政府具有土地分配的規劃及主導權，在抵費地面積有限的情況下，倘能了解抵費地的區位、規模與效益之關係，在訂定分配原則及抵費地劃設時考量上述影響抵費地標售價格的因素，以降低交易成本，即可望降低地主共同負擔或創造盈餘以留供重劃區內建設與管理維護，提升開發效益。 / A urban land readjustment (ULR) project follows the trend of urban development and the urban planning, it readjusts all fragmental and irregular land in the area. After building the land of public in the area, the rest of buildable land will be allocated to landlords and reserve the cost equivalent land by distribution principle. The final purpose of ULR is to adjust the property of land. That way of adjustment is a transaction which comes with the cost, and the residual of transaction cost is price. There is transaction cost in the process of ULR project and in the use of cost equivalent land. The reduction of the transaction cost will rise the price of cost equivalent land. The area and individual condition of all the cost equivalent land is different after URL project. The traditional research of land price focus on the condition of land, for example, the area of the land, the accessibility of public facilities and the land use zoning , but less attention in the using of building and the conformity of property. In this research, we discuss the cost equivalent land with the point of building development by ULR, and the effect of the transaction cost to develop performance by analyzing individual condition, land using constrain, area, size, conformity of land. We also study on the factor of the price of cost equivalent land. In this research, we gather the cost equivalent land of Lin-Kou New Town URL and other related information of land. We use the data screened by purpose to build to integrate 189 lands for the base of experimental research, and using the Hedonic Price Method to set the model in which the unit price of cost equivalent land (per square meter ) as the dependent variable and thirteen impact factors as independent variables.。The experiment result shows that five factors including the floor area ratio of cost equivalent land, the maximum width of neighbor road, the width of neighbor, the distance from school and the time for sale have positive impact to the price of the cost equivalent land. On the other hand, the four factors including the area of the cost equivalent land, the complexity of neighbor property, the depth of land and the ratio of width to depth have negative impact to the price of the cost equivalent land. The government has dominant and plan of land distribution by URL-led by the government, for a limited area of cost equivalent land, if we can realize the relationship among region, size and efficiency of cost equivalent land which effect the price of cost equivalent land, it can reduce the transaction cost when we set up the rule of land and cost equivalent land distribution. We can reduce average burden of landlords or make surplus for construction and management for URL, and also promote the efficiency of development.

估價於房地產市場實扮演著一不可或缺的角色，精確的估價不僅可提供消費者正確極充分的購屋資訊，亦為政府擬定政策方針之基礎。由於台灣房地產市場為一不完全市場，消費者在購屋的同時更常因資訊的不健全而遭受不必要之損失，因此精確及流通之估價資訊實為健全台灣房地產市場之首務。 鑑於過去估價技術仍未成熟，所佔之房價常無法令人信服。本研究欲以類神經網路之功能，將其原理應用於房地產估價上，試圖解決過去估價方法本身之缺失，並作為估價人員輔助之工具。本研究主要以倒傳遞及理解倒傳遞類神經網路與特徵價格法進行公證比較分析，並以特徵價理論為基礎，利用類神經網路得出影率房地產價格更具代表性之因素，以做為未來建立房地產估價輔助系統之參考。 為了解不同的資料型態是否會使類神經網路有不同的學習效果，本研究將資料分為四組實驗設計，分別對不同的資料型態進行測試，研究結果顯示類神經網路對於資料型態較為敏感，其中又以理解倒傳遞類神經網路為最，使得其在預測能力上易受異常點或極端值的影響，而有好壞差異較大的情況。即類神經網路之學習效果端視資料是否具代表性而定。