1 |
我國女性選民投票行為之研究-2004年總統選舉分析吳家蕎 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究主要目的係探討2004年總統大選,我國女性選民個人社會背景特徵、政治態度及投票行為,並分析影響女性選民投票抉擇的重要因素。
本研究採用二手資料分析法,資料來源為行政院國家科學委員會補助研究計畫 「2004年總統選舉台灣選舉與民主化調查」(TEDS 2004P)資料,使用的統計方法主要為次數分配、卡方檢定、t值檢定、變異數分析及洛基廻歸模型。
經分析後主要研究發現:
一、女性選民的政黨認同傾向「中立」;對候選人的評價,女性選民認為陳水扁的形象優於連戰,而連戰的能力優於陳水扁,整體而言,女性選民較喜歡陳水扁;政策議題方面,女性選民首重「經濟性議題」;2004年總統大選,女性選民表示投票給陳水扁的比例多於連戰。
二、女性選民的個人背景因素及政治態度等變數,單獨地與女性選民的投票抉擇皆有顯著的關聯性,惟將諸多變數一同納入模型比較其相對影響力時,發現「教育程度」、「政黨認同」及「候選人評價」等三個變數最具影響力。
三、「教育程度」是影響女性選民投票行為的重要因素,顯示社會學研究途徑同樣和社會心理學研究途徑對女性選民的投票抉擇具解釋力及預測力,惟高教育程度女性選民的投票率並不高。
四、2004年女性選民「偏泛藍」及「偏泛綠」比例差距不大,與1992年相較,女性選民對國民黨的支持度下滑,對民進黨的認同則大幅提升,而無政黨傾向比率縮小,顯示女性的政治意識逐漸提升。
五、女性選民重視候選人個人特質,尤其女性佐理人員及家庭主婦更有「選人不選黨」的傾向,且形象的影響力更勝於能力。
|
2 |
女性選民投票行為之研究-2010台北市長選舉 / The voting behavior of women voters-an analysis of 2010 Taipei mayoral election薛立梅 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究主要目的在探討2010年台北市長大選,台北市女性選民個人社會背景特徵、投票取向因素及投票行為,並分析影響台北市女性選民投票行為的最重要因素。
本研究採用二手資料分析法,資料係採自2009年至2012年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃(2/3):民國九十九年直轄市市長選舉面訪案(TEDS 2010C): NSC 99-2420-H-031-002,使用次數分配(Frequencies)、卡方檢定(Chi-square test)、t檢定(t-test)及變異數分析(Analysis of variance, ANOVA)及洛基迴歸模型(Logistic Regression Model)等統計方法分析資料並詮釋之。
經統計分析後主要研究發現:
一、本研究發現台北市選民在政治知識、政黨認同、候選人評價、所重視議題誰最能代表、市長施政滿意度等投票取向上,女性與男性選民有差異性。但在投票抉擇上,男女都是投給郝龍斌最多,只是比例上有差異;而政黨認同及候選人評價差距等二項變項,皆為影響台北市女性選民及男性選民投票行為的主要因素。
二、就全體受訪台北市女性選民而言,本研究所提出的省籍、收入、族群認同、政黨認同、候選人評價差距、候選人情感溫度計、所重視議題誰最能代表、整體市長施政滿意度及綜合各項施政滿意度等變項,個別單獨與投票行為進行分析均達統計上的顯著關聯性,可見上述變項皆有可能影響台北市女性選民的投票行為。將諸多變項一同納入模型比較其相對影響力時,發現「政黨認同」及「候選人評價差距」等二項變項最具影響力。
三、台北市女性選民的省籍、收入、族群認同等人口學的變項,個別與其投票行為均有顯著的關聯性,但經與其他社會心理學的變項,例如政黨認同、候選人評價等,以洛基迴歸模型進行相對影響力分析,發現這些變項顯然不如社會心理學的變項來得有顯著性。因此,密西根學派所提出的社會心理學研究途徑,相較於哥倫比亞學派所提出的社會學研究途徑,對台北市女性選民的投票行為更具有解釋力或預測力。 / This study aimed to explore the social background characteristics, voting orientations, and voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City during the 2010 Taipei Mayoral Election and analyze the most important factors which influenced the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City.
The analysis method adopted by this study was the secondary analysis. The data were retrieved from the “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” of a 3-year research project from 2009 to 2012 (2/3): The Survey Project of 2010 Municipal Mayoral Election (TEDS 2010C): NSC 99-2420-H-031-002. Statistical analysis methods such as frequencies, Chi-square test, t-test, Analysis of variance (ANOVA), and logistic regression model were applied to the data and the results were interpreted.
After the statistical analyses were performed, the findings are summarized below:
1. Female and male voters in Taipei City were different in political knowledge, party identification, candidate evaluation, which candidate can represent the voters concerned issue, and satisfaction of mayoral’s performance. However, in the aspect of whom to vote, both male and female voters mostly voted for Lung-bin Hau, though with different percentages. The key factors which influenced the voting behavior of female and male voters in Taipei City included two variables: party identification and candidate evaluation.
2. For the interviewed female voters in Taipei City, variables proposed by this study, including province of origin, income, ethnic group identification, party identification, candidate evaluation difference, candidate feeling thermometer, which candidate can represent the voter’s concerned issue, satisfaction of mayoral’s performance, were all significantly related to their voting behavior respectively. In other words, these variables could influence the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City. After including these variables in the same model to compare their relative influences, it was found that the two most influential variables were “party identification” and “candidate evaluation difference”.
3. For the female voters in Taipei City, the demographic variables such as province of origin, income, and ethnic group identification were significantly related to their voting behavior respectively. However, compared with other social psychological variables like party identification, and candidate evaluation, these demographic variables were not as significant according to the results of the influence analysis using the logistic regression model. Therefore, the social psychological approach proposed by the Michigan School was better than the sociological approach proposed by the Columbia School in explanatory power and prediction power of the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City.
|
Page generated in 0.0246 seconds