本研究主要探討台灣地區自有住宅與生育決策之間的關連性，利用1994年至2005年台灣地區23個縣市之自有住宅率與一般生育率作為實證研究的資料，欲說明一個家庭在面對預算限制式之下，自有住宅對於生育行為的影響，究竟兩者之間存在互補關係抑或競爭關係。本文參考簡單生育理論模型建立迴歸模型，再利用Panel Data實證模型，分析自有住宅與生育決策之間的關係。 根據台灣地區之官方資料所得出的實證結果，得出以下結論：當生育率遞延一期之時，住宅的持有對於生育行為存在負向關係，顯示出自有住宅於購買初期會延後生育決策的形成，兩者之間存在資源排擠效果；而當生育率遞延兩期時，兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。此外，女性受教程度越高，隱含在工作中所獲得的報酬越高，養育子女的機會成本也就越高，與生育率為負向關係。家戶所得亦等同理論預期，與生育率為正向關係。其他變數，如：代表景氣循環的失業率與反應國情文化的龍虎年效應均與原先預期一致，生育行為有著順景氣循環的特性；台灣生育決策與龍虎年息息相關。 / The thesis presents the relationship between home-ownership and the birth of children in Taiwan. Housing factor might affects childbirth in complement or replacement way with limited budget in a family. In this study, general fertility rate represents decision of childbirth and homeownership rate means housing factor. This research uses 1994-2005 panel data from the statistic institutions in Taiwan to examine the factors which influence decision of having children, especially housing factor. The results of the empirical study are summarized as follows: If the decisions of childbirth are lagged a year and two years, they both suffer negative effects from home-ownership. The negative effect of the latter is larger that that of the former. This finding shows that the cost of home-ownership might compete with that of having children. This study also finds that there is a negative relationship between female education and the birth of children. Household income is significant to improve decision of childbirth. Both are consistent with the expectation of theory. Concerning the procyclical behavior of fertility, the study demonstrates that an increase in the unemployment rate generates a decrease in fertility. In addition, having children is correlated with the cultural factors.

近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 / In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.

根據傳統經濟供需理論，價格便宜相對會吸引需求上升，然而，以台灣住宅現象來看，相較沈重的房貸壓力，低廉的租金為何不能吸引租屋需求增加，反而自有住宅市場佔整體住宅市場八成高的比例？對於負擔能力可自由選擇租賃或購買住宅的家戶，似乎不管租金負擔較房貸負擔輕鬆的事實，大多偏好進入自有市場；而租屋者似乎只要負擔能力可及，就會轉入自有市場。這些現象背後是否隱含台灣住宅租賃市場與自有市場之間的替代程度不大？ 實證結果顯示，民國72年，租賃住宅對自有房屋者之交叉彈性為0.04，而自有住宅對租屋者之交叉彈性為0.06。民國82年，租賃住宅對自有房屋者之交叉彈性為0.02，而自有住宅對租屋者之交叉彈性為0.07，交叉彈性皆很小。以同一年相比較，發現租賃住宅的交叉彈性較自有住宅為大，其可能由於租屋者視租賃為過渡時期，其最終仍想擁屋，所以租屋需求對房價的變動較為敏感；而擁屋者較少會有賣掉自有住宅轉入租賃市場的情形，所以其對租金的變動較不敏感。不同的房地產價格水準下（72、82年），自有者之交叉彈性變小而租屋者之交叉彈性增加。在住宅租賃市場與自有市場之相對購屋或租屋價格的變動下，住宅消費行為在兩個次市場之間的移轉情況可自替代程度中反應出來。