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廠商訂價理論架構與方法--以個案公司為例 / Firm's Pricing Theoretic Structure and Method邵茂龍, Shaw, Maw-Long Unknown Date (has links)
在所有的行銷變數中,價格是攸關公司是否獲利,從而決定企業成敗最直接的因素。經濟學中的價格理論一直佔著很重要的地位,而在其理論中卻有太多的假設,以致與現實市場情況脫節。且對於廠商實際上應如何訂價也很少提及,導致企業在訂價時,有許多技術性的問題無法克服,因此便無從運用這些理論。以下所列者為本研究所探討的幾個重要的課題。
(1)建立『致實用』的訂價理論架構
(2)建立需求曲線的衡量方法過去經濟學家藉『序列效用理論』或『計數效用理論』,建立了需求曲線。但這些理論都建立在一些不合理的假設下。且這些方法對企業來說也過於抽象,運用上也欠缺競爭因素的考慮。導致企業訂價時,無法合理估計出價量的關係,更無從利用需求曲線來決定最佳的訂價。本研究透過『貝氏整合法』,經『人機整合』的方式,整合了各專家的先驗訊息與市場調查的樣本訊息,以期提高需求曲線的賴度,並作為企業訂價時預估銷售量的基礎。
(3)落實各種訂價方法在實務上的運用就像經濟理論一樣,過去學者所建立的一些訂價方法,就學術觀點固然有其價值,但在實務的運用上卻往往缺乏技術面的考量,以至未能為企業界廣為採用。本研究對各訂價方法研擬運用的步驟,並將以個案公司實務運用之。
(4)提出整合導向的訂價觀點影響廠商訂價的因素相當複雜,必須統合競爭、成本與需求面的考慮,以訂出最適的價格。因此,本研究以過去文獻中所提者為基礎,再輔以一些技術上的克服,落實經濟理論中有關整合導向的訂價方法。本研究並首創以權益報酬率為觀點的整合導向訂價法,藉著整合訂價與各功能部門的互動,使產品能為公司創造最大的價值。
(5)提出權益報酬率觀點之訂價的理由過去企業實務上的訂價,甚至各文獻所提到的訂價方法,大都限於行銷部門的觀點,尋求銷售額或利潤的極大化。但經本研究分析,利潤極大化未必會使公司整體獲利。在『股份有限公司』盛行的今日,股東價值的提升才是公司經營的最終目標。一味的尋求利潤或銷售量的極大,可能會造成生產與財務部門無法充分的與訂價策略配合,導致權益報酬率下降。
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附有最低保證給付投資型保險之評價與分析曾柏方, Tseng, Po-fang Unknown Date (has links)
有鑑於附有最低保證給付投資型保險期末現金流量與選擇權如出一轍,是以應用平賭訂價理論(The Martingale Pricing Method)嵌入HJM利率模型,對隨機利率下附有最低保證給付投資型保險進行評價。並對繳費方式與利率型態兩議題所構成四種類型附有最低保證給付投資型保險作實地數據模擬與評價,以及敏感度分析。
研究結果可以歸納為四點結論。
(1) 單就附有最低保證給付投資型保險簡化版(忽略期中死亡理賠與期滿生存機率)而言:
可視為是最低保證給付折現與以之為履約價的買權組合。因此,當影響因子僅與買權有相關性時,附有最低保證給付投資型保險與理論買權的敏感度分析結果,如出一轍。連動標的期初價格與波動度變動於附有最低保證給付投資型保險影響便是實證。
(2) 延續上點論述衍生:
當影響因子同時對買權與附有最低保證給付折現具有相關性時,由於買權佔整個保險價值比重過低,是以主要影響力皆來自附有最低保證給付的變動。附有最低保證給付與固定利率折現因子變動對於保險價值影響,即反應此結果。
(3) 分別就繳費方式不同下,投保年齡與投保期限變動對於附有最低保證給付投資保險的影響而言:
躉繳型繳費方式下,由第二點結論可得,投保期限越長保費越低,是以當投保年齡越大,期中死亡率提高,且期間短的保費較高的情況下,投保年齡變動對於附有最低保證給付投資型保險影響為正向;分期繳型繳費方式下,由於條款設定不同,無法與躉繳型一概而論,反映在投保期間越長保單價值與保費皆增加,但若是比較其增加的幅度(二階條件小於零)逐漸減少,倒是與躉繳型投資保險投保期間與保費關係意思相同,只是呈現方式不同。分期繳型投資型保險保單價值與投保年齡關係,從投保期限與保費關係以及高年齡層死亡率較高,可以得知,隨著投保年齡的增加,分期繳型投資保險中因為死亡理賠的現金流量產生機會提高,而此部分期間短保單價值較低,是以投保年齡與保單價值呈現反比關係,但是保單價值平準化後的保費,源於平準因子每期存活率因投保年齡增加而減少,造成投保年齡越高,保費也越高。
(4) 就性別而言:
躉繳型附有最低保證給付投資保險,由於女性相較於男性死亡率較低,容易取得期間較長的期滿保證金,而此部分價值較低,是以女生保費較男生便宜;分期繳型附有最低保證給付投資保險,則是相反的表現,由於此部分價值較高,是以女性的保險價值高於男性,同時因女性平準因子中的存活率也比男性高,是以每期所要繳交的保費也比男性低廉。
(5) 就利率型態而言:
隨機利率下躉繳型投資型保險與固定利率下躉繳型投資保險相較,便宜許多,主要是因為利率型態為隨機,且期初利率期間結構打破水平狀態的假設,真實反應正常期初利率期間結構(Normal Interest Rate Term Structure),是以評價出的保費較固定利率型態下的保費低廉,甚至於分期繳型附有最低保證給付投資保險,在隨機利率下,隨著投保期限增加,保費反而下降。
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後進SOC企業經營策略本質的思考吳文義, Wu, Wen Yi Unknown Date (has links)
本研究的個案是系統單晶片企業,系統單晶片是電子系統的核心,因此該企業對於下游電子產品的發展扮演著舉足輕重的角色,是積體電路產業價值鍊最高價值的一環。本研究的主要目的是藉著一個極為成功的系統單晶片設計公司的成長軌跡與其相關的產業歷史,透過還原當時的時空環境了解並分析其經營策略的本質,以建立適合系統單晶片設計公司之經營策略本質的分析架構,同時實證其分析的結果,藉以尋求其研究問題「後進者的成功經營策為何?」的解答,並從個案企業的歷史中找出常被忽略的寶貴的經營智慧,而另一目的是能夠藉著收集具有時間標記的經營事件,提供豐富的研究素材給有興趣系統單晶片設計產業做更進一步或其他主題的研究。
一開始的動機是為了解答「後進者的成功經營策為何?」這個問題,但研究之後發現這是一個很有可能沒有通用解的問題,因此本研究轉從「策略本質的思考」出發,試著從個案公司的各個不同系統單晶片產品及其下游相關的產業的事件中,進行分析、推理、歸納與實證所關心的議題,其中個案分析主要包括四個產業:(一)光碟機產業;(二)DVD播放機產業;(三)數位電視機產業;(四)手機產業。其中每一個產業的故事都以某一個案的企業發展為中心,以時間的先後呈現,描述當時的產業環境、企業狀態、決策的因果關係,以及如何執行與執行結果。為了解答「後進者的成功經營策為何?」這個的大問題,同時從個案的分析與理論推論研究,從不同方向的思考並嚴謹的歸納與分析提出以下的研究發現:(一)從行銷理論分析策略本質;(二)以利潤方程式分析策略本質;(三)SOC晶片訂價策略;(四)從動態能耐的架構分析策略本質;(五)後進者的經營策略;(六)成長與新產品選擇的策略;(七)經營智慧的闡述。希望能提供企業經營者策略思考的架構,而建構出適合自己的經營策略。
本研究藉著邱志聖「行銷理論」中產品的「外顯」與「內隱」之價值分析方法,發展出「(一)從行銷理論分析策略本質」之研究發現中一系列的理論,並以此為基礎,輔助論證其他的研究發現,再根據「利潤彈性」的定義,提出可以以嚴謹的數學証明的一系列有關訂價的創新的理論,以此為基礎進而提出「(三)SOC晶片訂價策略」,再藉著「(四)從動態能耐的架構分析策略本質」的個案研究,發現組織的能耐與低成本優勢有的強烈的相關性,整合以上相關的研究發現,進而提出「(五)後進者的經營策略」,以創新「先進者支援的兩難」理論為切入點,並根據以上研究的結論,提出「後進者的成功經營策為何?」的參考解答。當企業成功之後,必然會面臨成長的困境,因此本研究從個案的深入分析,提出所應採取的「(六)成長與新產品選擇的策略」,以及最後提醒經營者一些知易行難的「(七)經營智慧的闡述」。
根據TEEC的「動態能耐」的理論,企業的策略深受「路徑相依性」的影響,且當不同企業的內部狀態或外部環境不同時其所需的策略也不一樣,因此後進者僅採用模仿的策略是不易成功,所以企業必需要思索適合自身的策略,並透過策略本質的分析,檢驗其策略是否有效,然而任何策略分析的方法都有其盲點,因
此分析或擬定策略時要依據競爭對手與產業特性選數種適合分析的架構進行分析,才能夠互相印證與互補,並思考其矛盾之處以避免致命的盲點,因此本論文提出專為系統單晶片設計企業策略本質的思考之架構以檢驗其策略有效性。 / The System on Chip (SOC) is the core of the electric system of an electric end product. Therefore, the firms that design and produce the SOC play the critical role in the development of the end product and contribute the most valuable part in the IC industry chain. The purposes of this paper are to develope the strategies and wisdoms of management as well as the frame structure for analyzing the essence of management strategies for the late comer. In the case study, there are the companies have been very successful in the world. In the cases, there are a lot of time-marked traces of the growth of the successful firm and its related industry history so that we can clarify what and why the strategies were executed at that time by analyzing the sequences of the management decisions and their consequences. Additionally, I hope the case stories can be utilized for the further research or another related research.
Initially in this research we focused only on the topic of the question“What are the effective management strategies for the late comer”. However, after further studies we found that the general answers for the big question might not exit; therefore, we adjusted the research direction and converted to focus on the topic of the essence of the analysis of the management strategies. In the studied case, there are four different kinds of SOC products including optic storage chip, DVD player chip, digital TV chip and handset chip and their related industries. In the story of each product case, the main stream of the story keeps close track of the situation of the management decisions making, the status of the execution by the studied firms and their consequences in timing sequence so that the evolution of the environment of the firms and the industries can be shown clearly. To study for the answer of the big question “What are the effective management strategies for the late comer”, firstly we analyze the cases and simultaneously study the related theories. Secondly we transform the big question into the following seven research subtopics: (1) Analyzing the essence of the management strategies based on the marketing promotion theory, (2) Analyzing the essence of the management strategies by the net profit, (3) Pricing strategies for the SOC products, (4) Analyzing the essence of the management strategies by the perspective of the“Dynamic capabilities”, (5) Management strategies for the late comer, (6) Strategies for the growth and new products selection, and (7) Wisdom of management. Finally, we hope this thesis can provide managers with the frame structure for both thinking and analyzing the strategies so that managers can develop the best strategies for themselves.
There are some kinds of logical relation among the theories developed in the above subtopics. The foundation of theories of“Analyzing the essence of the management strategies”is the value proposition that bases on the analysis of the explicit value and implicit value in the marketing promotion theory. Theories of“Analyzing the essence of the management strategies”are one of the most fundamental pillars that support the other theories in this thesis. According to the definition of elasticity of net profit in this thesis, we can deduce some innovative and valuable theories by the rigid mathematical reasoning. Furthermore, we can develop the innovative theories “(3) Pricing strategies for the SOC product”. In addition to developing the above theories, we apply the theory of “Dynamic capabilities” to analyze the strategies in the case stories to find the effective cost advantage is supported by the capabilities of organization with effectiveness and efficiency. We integrate the above theories to propose “(5) Management strategies for the late comer”. A firm will eventually confront the saturation of the growth after its successful startup. To solve this issue, we base on the deep investigation of the cases and some theories developed in this thesis, we propose “(6) Strategies for growth as well as new products selection”. Finally from the case stories, we abstract some both valuable and critical wisdoms that are easy understood but they are hard to be practiced due to the human natural weakness.
According to “Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management” by TEECE, the strategies for a firm strongly depend on the path that the firm has experienced, thus the imitative strategies from its rival is usually not effective just because their paths they passed are different, not to mention that neither their environments nor the conditions of the firms are totally different. Therefore, a firm works out any strategies and then its managers have to carefully check the effectiveness of the strategies by analyzing their essence of the strategies and then modify them before they are executed. However, any framework for analyzing strategy has its blindspots. To avoid the strategic blindspots, we have to use several different and suitable frameworks to analyze the strategies, and then check if there are any conflicts among the results from different frameworks analyzing, we have to deliberate to find why and how to solve the conflicts. Therefore, we develop a new frame work that appropriately analyzes the strategies of both the SOC firm-level and their products with a totally different perspective
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