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中共軍事謀略之研究--以1995-96年對台軍演為例 / The Analysis of PRC's Military Strategy : A Case Study of China's War Game Toward Taiwan in 1995 and 1996崔樹仁 Unknown Date (has links)
兩岸在經歷數十年的和平演變之後,中共亦經歷數代領導人的軍事謀略轉化,為何中共會選擇在九五、九六年進行一連串的軍事演習與軍事事務革新動作?除了直接的政治目的之外,亦必有其內部的黨、政、軍之運作與領導人直接的軍事謀略思維有相當程度的互動與角力。若是單單從武器裝備的比較並不能看清中共對台軍演的目的,單從國際政治的角度也不易探求中共內部利益衝突的真相。
本論文先從謀略、軍事謀略及中共軍事謀略的基本認知和概念著手,進而與中共軍事演習的關係做一整理與分類,找出其間相互依存的關係,進而從較為宏觀的角度出發,依照本論文所發現之LIAR理論,從領導統御(Leadership)、智庫系統(Intelligence)、國家利益與安全觀(Aspect of Nation Security)、資源(Resources)等四個面向進行整理,從中外學者各項文獻的統整開始,到本人的觀察與心得作一綜整,探求中共軍事謀略的演變與內涵,以期為國內相關研究提供有益的貢獻。
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上海合作組織軍事合作之研究張大為 Unknown Date (has links)
「上海合作組織」是第一個以中國城市為名的永久性政府間組織,以中文及俄文為正式語言,成員國包括中國、俄羅斯及地處中亞的哈薩克、吉爾吉斯、塔吉克、烏茲別克。而「上海合作組織」的前身是建立於1996年的「上海五國」機制,2001年中,烏茲別克加入「上海五國」機制,同年6月15日,六國元首共同發表「上海合作組織成立宣言」,宣佈在「上海五國」機制基礎上成立「上海合作組織」,當時中共藉著這個機制與俄羅斯及中亞四國開始展開邊境地區信任和裁軍的談判,而這也是「上海合作組織」軍事合作的開端。
本論文以「上海合作組織」軍事合作為研究主題,首先主要探討的目的為從「上海五國」到「上海合作組織」,其軍事合作形成的背景有那些主要因素、其演進的歷程及其內容,其次「上海合作組織」軍事合作的主要內容有那些,接著探討「上海合作組織」軍事合作發展至今,不論外部或內部有那些限制因素影響軍事合作,最後逐一分析「上海合作組織」的軍事合作對全球、區域及台海兩岸的安全情勢未來的發展。
研究發現隨著「上海合作組織」的成立,中共在中亞地區的影響力逐漸加大,中共在中亞日益提昇的力量也形成對俄羅斯的另一種挑戰。2007年6月27日「上海合作組織」六個成員國簽署「上海合作組織成員國關於舉行聯合軍事演習的協定」,使聯合軍演朝向定期化、常態化與制度的趨勢發展,而「上海合作組織」軍事合作發展至今,雖然有許多內外的限制因素,但是其範圍及影響層面卻日漸擴大,對全球、亞太地區或台海兩岸的安全情勢都產生重大的影響,不論兩岸和平談判如何發展,我們都要密切注意「上海合作組織」軍事合作對我軍事、外交等層面所造成的威脅。 / The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is the first permanent inter-government organization named by one of the Chinese cities. Its official language is Chinese and Russian, and its members include China, Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Tajikistan and Republic of Uzbekistan. "Shanghai Five" mechanism, established in 1996, was the forerunner of SCO. In 2001, Republic of Uzbekistan joined the "Shanghai Five" mechanism, and in the same year of June 15, the leaders of the six countries announced a joint statement-"the founding declaration of SCO", which declared SCO was established on the basis of the "Shanghai Five" mechanism . By using this mechanism, China started the negotiation, which is about a mutual trust of boarding area and disarmament issues with Russia and four center Asia countries, and this mechanism started the military cooperation in SCO.
This thesis mainly focuses on the military cooperation of SCO. First, it will be discussed that the purpose of the organization from the "Shanghai Five" to SCO, including what are the primary factors of forming the military cooperation and its courses of evolution and contents. Second, we talk about what are the main contents of the military cooperation, and the SCO’s external or internal limitation which may influence the military cooperation. Finally, we analyze its future development of security situation in global, regional, and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait areas step by step.
The research discovered, with the foundation of SCO, that the China’s influence in center Asia is increasing, which will form another challenge to Russia. On June 27, 2007, the six members of SCO signed “an agreement of holding joint military maneuvers among SCO members” to have them held periodically, normally, and systematically. From now, although there are a lot of limitations, the influence of the military cooperation is increasing and it has played a key role in global, Asia Pacific and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait areas. No matter how the peace negotiation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait areas will go, we must keep a close eye on the fact that the military cooperation could cause Taiwan’s military and diplomacy to be under threat.
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