Erfolgreiche Unternehmen denken intensiv über den eigentlichen Nutzen ihres Unternehmens für Kunden nach. Diese versuchen, ihrer Konkurrenz voraus zu sein, und zwar durch gute Ideen, Innovationen und Kreativität. Dabei wird Erfolg anhand von Metriken gemessen, wie z.B. der Anzahl der loyalen Kunden oder der Anzahl der Käufer. Gegeben, dass der Wettbewerb durch die Globalisierung, Deregulierung und technologische Innovation in den letzten Jahren angewachsen ist, spielen die richtigen Entscheidungen für den Erfolg gerade im operativen Geschäft der sämtlichen Bereiche des Unternehmens eine zentrale Rolle. Vor diesem Hintergrund entstammen die in der vorliegenden Arbeit zur Evaluation der Methoden des maschinellen Lernens untersuchten Entscheidungsprobleme vornehmlich der Entscheidungsunterstützung. Hierzu gehören Klassifikationsprobleme wie die Kreditwürdigkeitsprüfung im Bereich Credit Scoring und die Effizienz der Marketing Campaigns im Bereich Direktmarketing. In diesem Kontext ergaben sich Fragestellungen für die korrelativen Modelle, nämlich die Untersuchung der Eignung der Verfahren des maschinellen Lernens für den Bereich des Credit Scoring, die Kalibrierung der Wahrscheinlichkeiten, welche mithilfe von Verfahren des maschinellen Lernens erzeugt werden sowie die Konzeption und Umsetzung einer Synergie-Heuristik zwischen den Methoden der klassischen Statistik und Verfahren des maschinellen Lernens. Desweiteren wurden kausale Modelle für den Bereich Direktmarketing (sog. Uplift-Effekte) angesprochen. Diese Themen wurden im Rahmen von breit angelegten empirischen Studien bearbeitet. Zusammenfassend ergibt sich, dass der Einsatz der untersuchten Verfahren beim derzeitigen Stand der Forschung zur Lösung praxisrelevanter Entscheidungsprobleme sowie spezifischer Fragestellungen, welche aus den besonderen Anforderungen der betrachteten Anwendungen abgeleitet wurden, einen wesentlichen Beitrag leistet. / Nowadays right decisions, being it strategic or operative, are important for every company, since these contribute directly to an overall success. This success can be measured based on quantitative metrics, for example, by the number of loyal customers or the number of incremental purchases. These decisions are typically made based on the historical data that relates to all functions of the company in general and to customers in particular. Thus, companies seek to analyze this data and apply obtained knowlegde in decision making. Classification problems represent an example of such decisions. Classification problems are best solved, when techniques of classical statistics and these of machine learning are applied, since both of them are able to analyze huge amount of data, to detect dependencies of the data patterns, and to produce probability, which represents the basis for the decision making. I apply these techniques and examine their suitability based on correlative models for decision making in credit scoring and further extend the work by causal predictive models for direct marketing. In detail, I analyze the suitability of techniques of machine learning for credit scoring alongside multiple dimensions, I examine the ability to produce calibrated probabilities and apply techniques to improve the probability estimations. I further develop and propose a synergy heuristic between the methods of classical statistics and techniques of machine learning to improve the prediction quality of the former, and finally apply conversion models to turn machine learning techqiques to account for causal relationship between marketing campaigns and customer behavior in direct marketing. The work has shown that the techniques of machine learning represent a suitable alternative to the methods of classical statistics for decision making and should be considered not only in research but also should find their practical application in real-world practices.

This dissertation defends the so-called 'agency-approach' to causation, which attempts to ground the causal relation in the cause's role of being a means to bring about its effect. The defence is confined to a conceptual interpretation of this theory, pertaining to the concept of causation as it appears in a causal judgement. However, causal judgements are not seen as limited to specific domains, and they are not exclusively attributed to human agents alone. As a methodological framework to describe the different perspectives of causal judgments, a method taken from the philosophy of information is made use of - the so-called 'method of abstraction'. According to this method, levels of abstraction are devised for the subjective perspective of the acting agent, for the agent as observer during the observation of other agents' actions, and for the agent that judges efficient causation. As a further piece of propaedeutic work, a class of similar (yet not agency-centred) approaches to causation is considered, and their modelling paradigms - Bayesian networks and interventions objectively construed - will be criticised. The dissertation then proceeds to the defence of the agency-approach, the first part of which is a defence against the objection of conceptual circularity, which holds that agency analyses causation in causal terms. While the circularity-objection is rebutted, I rely at that stage on a set of subjective concepts, i.e. concepts that are eligible to the description of the agent's own experience while performing actions. In order to give a further, positive corroboration of the agency-approach, an investigation into the natural origins and constraints of the concept of agency is made in the central chapter six of the dissertation. The thermodynamic account developed in that part affords a third-person perspective on actions, which has as its core element a cybernetic feedback cycle. At that point, the stage is set to analyse the relation between the first- and the third-person perspectives on actions previously assumed. A dual-aspect interpretation of the cybernetic-thermodynamic picture developed in chapter six will be directly applied to the levels of abstraction proposed earlier. The level of abstraction that underpins judgments of efficient causation, the kind of causation seemingly devoid of agency, will appear as a derived scheme produced by and dependent on the concept of agency. This account of efficient causation, the 'objectification of agency', affords the rebuttal of a second objection against the agency-approach, which claims that the approach is inappropriately anthropomorphic. The dissertation concludes with an account of single-case, or token level, causation, and with an examination of the impact of the causal concept on the validity of causal models.

The concept of causation is essential to ascribing moral and legal responsibility since the only way an agent can make a difference in the world is through her acts causing things to happen. Yet the extent and manner in which the complex features of causation bear on responsibility ascriptions remain unclear. I present an analysis of four aspects of causation which yields new insights into different properties of responsibility and offers increased plausibility to certain moral views. Chapter I examines the realist assumption that causation is an objective and mind-independent relation between space-time located relata – a postulate meant to provide moral assessment with a naturalistic basis and make moral properties continuous with a scientific view of the world. I argue that such a realist stance is problematic, and by extension so are the views seeking to tie responsibility attributions to an objective relation. Chapter II combines the context sensitivity of causal claims with the plausible idea that responsibility ascriptions rest on the assessment of causal sequences relating agents and consequences. I argue that taking context sensitivity seriously compels us to face a choice between moral contrastivism and a mild version of scepticism, viz. responsibility is not impossible, but ultimately difficult to identify with confidence. I show why the latter view is preferable. Chapter III explores the concern that group agents would causally (and morally) overdetermine the effects already caused by their constituent individuals. I argue that non-reductive views of agency and responsibility lack a coherent causal story about how group agents impact the world as relatively independent entities. I explain the practical importance of higher-order entities and suggest a fictionalist stance towards group agency talk. Chapter IV analyses the puzzle of effect selection – if causes have infinitely many effects, but only one or a few are mentioned in causal claims, what determines their selection from the complete set of consequents? I argue that the criteria governing the difference between effects and by-products lack clarity and stability. I use the concerns about appropriate effect selection to formulate an epistemic argument against consequentialism.

M.A. (Latin) / This study is focused on the different ways the character of the Emperor Nero is depicted by the biographer Suetonlus and the historiographer Tacitus. The study is Introduced with an historical survey of the life of Nero. Thereupon a discussion follows on the life experiences of the authors, Suetonius and Tacitus, as well as the different style and genre used by each, and suggestions on how their writings could have been influenced by these factors. Two aspects of Nero's life are discussed at length, namely his relationship with his mother (and issues relating to that). as well as his interest in and practising of the arts (focusing on Nero as a poet, singer and charioteer). The discussion of these topics is done in the following manner: firstiy Suetonius' account of the events are given, followed by the account by Tacitus. These versions are then compared and where different, the candidate suggests possible reasons for the difference of opinion or presentation between the authors. Various characteristics of the Emperor Nero are referred to. The main conclusions can be categorised into three sections: - First and foremost the authors had different life experiences. Suetonius held various secretarial positions at the court of Caesar Hadrian which SUbsequently influenced his writings. He Was not however a senator or interested In politics and military affairs, which explains the fact that he does not write about political upheavals and does not contribute political motivations for certain actions of characters under discussion. Tacitus on the contrary, was a senator during the reign of Domitian. The atrocities committed by the Emperor and the slowly diminishing power of the Senate influenced the mind and writings of Tacitus to a great extent.

No description available.

<p>Denna undersökning påvisar möjligheten att gradera verkan med stridsvagn 122 vid en insats i Sveriges insatsområde i Afghanistan. Hotbilden som råder gör att personalen måste ha ett gott skydd och möjlighet till verkan vilket stridsvagnen erbjuder. Tyngdpunkten i undersökningen ligger på modern 120 mm ammunition där Försvarsmaktens övningsammunition kan användas för att minska effekten i målet och på så sätt gradera verkan. På marknaden finns det ammunition som skulle komplettera redan befintlig ammunitionsportfölj framförallt på korta avstånd och då även med möjligheten att skjuta varningseld. Sekundärbeväpning (kulsprutor) på vagnen kan även den användas för att gradera verkan. Vidare finns det möjlighet att med rökkastarna verka med icke dödliga medel som tårgas och chockgranater då eskaleringen i en situation är låg. De olika vapensystem som undersökningen tar upp har värderats och placerats in i en eskaleringsmodell där lägsta nivån är att visa närvaro och högsta är verkanseld med flertalet vagnar.</p> / <p>The study indicates the possibility of obtaining scalable effects with Leopard 2A5 (S) in a mission in Sweden’s area of responsibility in Afghanistan. The threat that exists against the soldiers makes the ability to have good protection and possibility to obtain effect, which the Leopard 2A5 (S) offers, amust. The main part of the study stresses on modern 120 mm munitions in which the Swedish Armed Forces’ training munitions can be used to reduce the effect in a target and thus makes it a scalable effect. In the market there are munitions that would complement the existing portfolio of munitions, particularly at short distances, and with the ability to shoot warning shots. Secondary Armament (machine guns) on the tank can also be used to obtain a scalable effect. Furthermore, there is an opportunity to use the smoke launchers with non lethal means such as teargas and stun grenades when the level of escalation in a situation is low. The different weapon systems that is discussed in the study has been valued and placed into aescalation model where the lowest level is to show presence and the highest is fire for effect withmultiple tanks.</p>

Denna undersökning påvisar möjligheten att gradera verkan med stridsvagn 122 vid en insats i Sveriges insatsområde i Afghanistan. Hotbilden som råder gör att personalen måste ha ett gott skydd och möjlighet till verkan vilket stridsvagnen erbjuder. Tyngdpunkten i undersökningen ligger på modern 120 mm ammunition där Försvarsmaktens övningsammunition kan användas för att minska effekten i målet och på så sätt gradera verkan. På marknaden finns det ammunition som skulle komplettera redan befintlig ammunitionsportfölj framförallt på korta avstånd och då även med möjligheten att skjuta varningseld. Sekundärbeväpning (kulsprutor) på vagnen kan även den användas för att gradera verkan. Vidare finns det möjlighet att med rökkastarna verka med icke dödliga medel som tårgas och chockgranater då eskaleringen i en situation är låg. De olika vapensystem som undersökningen tar upp har värderats och placerats in i en eskaleringsmodell där lägsta nivån är att visa närvaro och högsta är verkanseld med flertalet vagnar. / The study indicates the possibility of obtaining scalable effects with Leopard 2A5 (S) in a mission in Sweden’s area of responsibility in Afghanistan. The threat that exists against the soldiers makes the ability to have good protection and possibility to obtain effect, which the Leopard 2A5 (S) offers, amust. The main part of the study stresses on modern 120 mm munitions in which the Swedish Armed Forces’ training munitions can be used to reduce the effect in a target and thus makes it a scalable effect. In the market there are munitions that would complement the existing portfolio of munitions, particularly at short distances, and with the ability to shoot warning shots. Secondary Armament (machine guns) on the tank can also be used to obtain a scalable effect. Furthermore, there is an opportunity to use the smoke launchers with non lethal means such as teargas and stun grenades when the level of escalation in a situation is low. The different weapon systems that is discussed in the study has been valued and placed into aescalation model where the lowest level is to show presence and the highest is fire for effect withmultiple tanks.

Syftet med undersökningen är att genom en jämförande modellstudie ta fram ett eller flera sätt att nedkämpa en motståndare utrustad med tungt reaktivt pansar. Reaktivt pansar har tidigare endast använts för att hindra RSV-strålar att penetrera pansar. Men teknikutvecklingen har nu medfört att dagens reaktiva pansar utöver skydd mot RSV-strålar också klarar av att reducera pilprojektilens förmåga till penetration. Amerikanarna som tidigt upptäckte att Ryssland hade tillgång till tekniken började direkt utveckla ny ammunition för att möta detta. Men vad har vi gjort i Sverige, sen detta uppdagades? Kan vår Stridsvagn 122 fortfarande lösa sin huvuduppgift: att slå ut andra stridsvagnar? I studien gör författaren antagandet att spårljuspansarprojektil 95 inte får genomslag på en stridsvagn utrustad med tungt reaktivt pansar, typ Kontakt-5. Undersökningen har sin tyngdpunkt i den jämförande modellstudie som skall jämföra tre olika scenarion. Modellstudien föregås av en beskrivande teoridel där bland annat skydd, svensk stridsvagnsammunition och reaktivt pansar beskrivs. Därefter behandlar modellstudien en duellsituation mellan Strv 122 och en motståndare utrustad med Kontakt-5. De olika modellerna jämförs i syfte att ta fram den modellen som är mest fördelaktig då man vill nedkämpa en fiende utrustad med Kontakt-5. Slutsatsen som dras utifrån studien är att normalförfarandet att initialt ha pilprojektil i kanonen bör ändras till att istället ha spränggranat. Spränggranaten kommer att skada Kontakt-5 och skapa en oskyddad yta där pilprojektilen kan få genomslag. / The purpose of this essay is to develop one or more ways to neutralize an enemy equipped with heavy reactive armour. Reactive armour has previously only protected against shaped charges. Technological advances have now led to today's reactive armour in addition to protection against shaped charges also capable of protecting against an Armour-Piercing Fin-Stabilized Discarding Sabot (APFSDS). The Americans discovered that this technology was available to the Russians and developed new types of APFSDS to deal with it. But what have we done in Sweden since this technology was discovered? In this essay, the author makes the assumption that the Swedish APFSDS can’t penetrate a tank equipped with reactive armour. A comparative model will compare three different ways to deal with this problem. Before doing the comparative model study, there will be a chapter which describes for example reactive armour, APFSDS, Kontakt-5 (a type of reactive armour), tank protection in general. The model consists of one Leopard 2A5 S (Leo 2) and one enemy tank equipped with reactive armour. By comparing different ways for the Leo 2 to defeat the enemy, the author will reach a conclusion for the problem. The conclusion drawn from this essay is that the normal procedure when the Leo 2 initially has an APFSDS loaded in the canon should be changed to it having a grenade loaded instead. Bursting a grenade towards the enemy will destroy or damage Kontakt-5 and the second projectile, which should be an APFSDS, will now penetrate the damaged Kontakt-5 and the hostile tank will be defeated.

Plus de vingt ans après la découverte de la supraconductivité à haute température critique, le mécanisme physique sous-jacente n'est pas encore bien cerné. En 2008, la découverte d'une nouvelle famille de supraconducteurs à haute température critique, les supraconducteurs à base de fer, a donné l'espoir de trouver une compréhension plus profonde des mécanismes de ce type de supraconductivité. Synthétiser des l'échantillons de grande qualité, la caractérisation des propriétés supraconductrices, l'étude des symétrices du gap et du paramètre d'ordre sont des étapes essentielles pour révéler le mécanisme. La connaissance précise du mécanisme permettra de profiter pleinement des propriétés remarquables de ces matériaux dans leurs applications industrielles si prometteuses. La thèse décrit d'abord la croissance de monocristaux de Ba$_{1-x}$K$_x$Fe$_2$As$_2$ et l'étude de leurs propriétés supraconductrices, menant vers la proposition d'une structure de gap du supraconducteur et d'un paramètre d'ordre pour les supraconducteurs à base de fer Ba-122 à partir de mesures de résistivité, de sondes à effect Hall, de spectroscopie d'Andreev en mode point-contact et de l'imagerie magnétique par la microscopie à nano-squid.Dans le chapitre 1, les événements historiques les plus marquants de la supraconductivité sont rappelés, les propriétés essentielles des supraconducteurs et le dévelopment des théories de la supraconductivité sont esquissés avant de présenter brièvement la découverte des supraconducteurs à base de fer et de donner un aperçu des questions actuelles de recherche dans ce domaine.Dans le chapitre 2, la procédure de croissance de monocristaux de Ba$_{1-x}$K$_x$Fe$_2$As$_2$ par la méthode de "self-flux", leur caractérisation par diffraction et par l'analyse de dispersion d'énergie des rayons X et la sensibilité des mesures de résistivité et de susceptibilité AC sont décrites. Puis nous présentons quelques résultats des mesures de la résistivité dépendante de la température de monocristaux du composé Ba$_{1-x}$K$_x$Fe$_2$As$_2$ (0,23 $\leq x \leq$ 0,4) sous champs magnétiques allant jusqu'à 9 T et dépendante de l'angle.Dans le chapitre 3, nous exposons quelques points essentiels du système de mesure à base de sonde de Hall que nous avons construit. Ensuite, nous présentons des mesures d'aimantation locale et globale sur des polycristaux de SmFeAsO$_{0.9}$F$_{0.1}$ synthétisés à haute pression, et de monocristaux de Ba$_{0.6}$K$_{0.4}$Fe$_2$As$_2$ effectuées par sonde de Hall et VSM.Dans le chapitre 4, nous donnons une brève introduction à la spectroscopie d'Andreev en mode point-contact, puis nous appliquons cette technique à des monocristaux de Ba$_{0.6}$K$_{0.4}$Fe$_2$As$_2$ et à une série de monocristaux de BaFe$_{2-x}$Ni$_x$As$_2$ couvrant une large gamme de dopage.Dans le chapitre 5, le développement d'un microscope de force à nano-SQUID et les mesures effectuées sur un film Rhénium d'épaisseur de 80 nm sont présentés. Le microscope peut acquérir des images topographiques et magnétiques simultanément. La plage de balayage maximale à 0.8 K est de \unit{70} {\micro\meter} $\times$ \unit{85}{\micro\meter} et sa résolution magnétique est d'environ $1,5 \times10^{-4}\Phi_0/\sqrt{\textrm{Hz}}$. Dans le chapitre 6, nous présentons quelques résultats des mesures de $\lambda$ par imagerie par microscopie de force à nano-squid sur des monocristaux de Ba(Fe$_{1-x}$Ni$_x$)$_2$As$_2$, couvrant tout le diagramme de phase. Sur les m\^{e}mes cristaux ont été effectuées des mesures du premier champ critique, de la variation de fréquence d'un oscillateur à diode tunnel et de la capacité calorifique.Enfin, au chapitre 7, un résumé détaillé et critique est présenté.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a single-stranded plus-sense RNA virus that is transmitted by blood-to-blood contact, and infects the human liver. HCV has a unique dependence on the liver-specific microRNA miR-122, where miR-122 binds the 5´ un-translated region of the viral RNA at two tandem sites and increases viral RNA abundance. The mechanisms of augmentation are not yet fully understood, but the interaction is known to stabilize the viral RNA, increase translation from the viral internal ribosomal entry site (IRES), and result in increased viral yield. In an attempt to create a small animal model for HCV, we added miR-122 to mouse cell lines previously thought non-permissive to HCV, which rendered these cells permissive to the virus, additionally showing that miR-122 is one of the major determinants of HCV hepatotropism. We found that some wild-type and knockout mouse cell lines – NCoA6 and PKR knockout embryonic fibroblasts – could be rendered permissive to transient HCV sub-genomic, but not full-length, RNA replication upon addition of miR-122, and that other wild-type and knockout cell lines cannot be rendered permissive to HCV replication by addition of miR-122. These knockout cell lines demonstrated varying permissiveness phenotypes between passages and isolates and eventually completely lost permissiveness, and we were unable to achieve sub-genomic RNA replication in PKR knockout primary hepatocytes. Knockdown of NCoA6 and PKR in Huh7.5 cells did not substantially impact sub-genomic replication, leading us to conclude that there are additional factors within the cell lines that affect their permissiveness for HCV replication such as epigenetic regulation during passage or transformation and immortalization. We also added miR-122 to Hep3B cells, a human hepatoma cell line lacking expression of miR-122 and previously thought to be non-permissive to HCV replication. Added miR-122 rendered the cells as highly permissive to HCV replication as the Huh7-derived cell lines commonly used to study the virus. In these cells, we were also able to observe miR-122-independent replication of sub-genomic HCV RNA. This was verified by use of a miR-122 antagonist that had no impact on the putative miR-122-independent replication, and by mutating the miR-122 binding sites to make them dependent on a single nucleotide-substituted microRNA. This replication in the absence of miR-122 was not detected in full-length HCV RNA, but was detectable using a bi-cistronic full-length genomic replicon, suggesting that the addition of a second IRES in sub-genomic and full-genomic replicons altered replication dynamics enough to allow detectable RNA replication without miR-122 binding. Because miR-122 has been implicated in protecting the viral RNA from destabilization and degradation by Xrn1, the main cytoplasmic 5´ to 3´ RNA exonuclease, we employed our miR-122-independent system to test this miR-122-mediated protection. We verified that miR-122 functions to protect the viral RNA from Xrn1, but this was insufficient to account for the overall impact of miR-122 on replication, meaning that miR-122 has further functions in the virus’ life cycle. We showed that the effect of miR-122 on translation is due to stabilization of the RNA by protecting it from Xrn1, through binding at both sites. We further evaluated the role of each miR-122 binding site (S1 and S2) in the virus life cycle, and found that binding at each site contributes equally to increasing viral RNA replication, while binding at both sites exerts a co-operative effect. Finally, we determined that binding of miR-122 at site S2 is more important for protection from Xrn1, suggesting that miR-122 binding at S1 is more important for the additional functions of miR-122 in enhancing HCV RNA accumulation. Altogether, we have shown that miR-122 is partially responsible for the hepatotropic nature of Hepatitis C virus, and that supplementation with this microRNA can render non-permissive cells permissive to viral replication. We have also identified and confirmed replication of both sub-genomic and full-length HCV RNA in the absence of miR-122. Finally, we have characterized the impact of the host RNA exonuclease Xrn1 on the HCV life cycle, and determined the roles of each miR-122 binding site in shielding the viral RNA from this host restriction factor.