Les trous noirs sont étudiés d'un point de vue théorique. Les propriétés thermodynamiques et quantiques des trous noirs sont abordées à travers des nouvelles perspectives. On explore différents problèmes logiquement reliés: depuis les lois de la mécanique des trous noirs, en passant par la function partition Euclidienne des trous noirs, jusqu'aux modèles microscopiques quantiques et granulaires.L'approche repose sur deux principes: la thermodynamique importante pour les trous noirs se situe près de l'horizon et la géométrie quantique de l'espace-temps est granuleuse.On examine la première loi de la mécanique des trous noirs avec une perspective quasilocal basée sur des observateurs près de l'horizon. Il s'avère que la première loi peut être simplement reformulée comme la variation de l'aire de l'horizon. Ensuite, on examine la fonction de partition Euclidienne à partir de la nouvelle perspective quasilocal, et on reproduit l'entropie de Bekenstein-Hawking ainsi que l'energie quasilocal nouvellement introduite.L'approche quasilocal peut être abordée par un point de vue basé sur les Horizons Isolés. Dans ce cadre, on explore la quantification de l'Horizon Isolé rotatoire, en analysant la structure symplectique, et en utilisant l'espace de Hilbert de la Gravitation Quantique à Boucles.Finalement, on étudie les conséquences macroscopiques du modèle granulaire quantique basé sur la Gravitation Quantique à Boucles. L'accent est mis sur le modèle de trou noir en rotation, les résultats ne sont pas concluants du fait que plusieurs hypothèses doivent être posées. Cependant, la perspective est prometteuse. Certains des résultats, comme l'entropie, peuvent être reproduits. / Black holes are studied from a theoretical point of view. The thermodynamics and quantum properties are addressed from a new perspective. A range of logically connected problems are explored: Starting from the laws of black hole mechanics, going through the Euclidean partition function, to the microscopic quantum granular models.The approach is supported by two guiding principles: What is physically relevant for black hole thermodynamics lays close to the horizon and the quantum geometry of the spacetime is coarse-grained.The first law of black hole mechanics is reviewed from the new quasilocal perspective based on near horizon observers. It turns out that the first law can be reformulated as variations of the area of the horizon. On the same grounds, the semiclassical Euclidean partition function is reviewed from the new quasilocal perspective. The framework reproduces the classic Bekenstein-Hawking entropy and the newly introduced quasilocal energy.The quasilocal approach can also be addressed by using Isolated Horizons. The quantization procedures are explored for the rotating Isolated Horizon starting from a symplectic structure analysis, and using the Loop Quantum Gravity Hilbert space. Finally, through a statistical analysis, the macroscopic consequences of the quantum granular model based on the Loop Quantum Gravity approach are studied. Special emphasis is put on the rotating quantum black hole model, however the results are not conclusive as several assumptions should be made on the way. Nevertheless, the perspective is promising as some of the semiclassical results, for instance the entropy, can be reproduced.

Le forage de données, méthode et moyens développés dans cette thèse, redéfinit le processus d’extraction de données, de la formalisation de la connaissance et de son enrichissement notamment dans le cadre de l’élucidation d’évènements qui n’ont pas ou peu été documentés. L’accident de la plateforme de forage Deepwater Horizon, opérée pour le compte de BP dans le Golfe du Mexique et victime d’un blowout le 20 avril 2010, sera notre étude de cas pour la mise en place de notre preuve de concept de forage de données. Cet accident est le résultat d’un décalage inédit entre l’état de l’art des heuristiques des ingénieurs de forage et celui des ingénieurs antipollution. La perte de contrôle du puits MC 252-1 est donc une faillite d’ingénierie et il faudra quatre-vingt-sept jours à l’équipe d’intervention pour reprendre le contrôle du puits devenu sauvage et stopper ainsi la pollution. Deepwater Horizon est en ce sens un cas d’ingénierie en situation extrême, tel que défini par Guarnieri et Travadel.Nous proposons d’abord de revenir sur le concept général d’accident au moyen d’une analyse linguistique poussée présentant les espaces sémantiques dans lesquels se situe l’accident. Cela permet d’enrichir son « noyau de sens » et l’élargissement de l’acception commune de sa définition.Puis, nous amenons que la revue de littérature doit être systématiquement appuyée par une assistance algorithmique pour traiter les données compte tenu du volume disponible, de l’hétérogénéité des sources et des impératifs d’exigences de qualité et de pertinence. En effet, plus de huit cent articles scientifiques mentionnant cet accident ont été publiés à ce jour et une vingtaine de rapports d’enquêtes, constituant notre matériau de recherche, ont été produits. Notre méthode montre les limites des modèles d’accidents face à un cas comme Deepwater Horizon et l’impérieuse nécessité de rechercher un moyen de formalisation adéquat de la connaissance.De ce constat, l’utilisation des ontologies de haut niveau doit être encouragée. L’ontologie DOLCE a montré son grand intérêt dans la formalisation des connaissances à propos de cet accident et a permis notamment d’élucider très précisément une prise de décision à un moment critique de l’intervention. La population, la création d’instances, est le coeur de l’exploitation de l’ontologie et son principal intérêt mais le processus est encore très largement manuel et non exempts d’erreurs. Cette thèse propose une réponse partielle à ce problème par un algorithme NER original de population automatique d’une ontologie.Enfin, l’étude des accidents n’échappe pas à la détermination des causes et à la réflexion sur les « faits socialement construits ». Cette thèse propose les plans originaux d’un « pipeline sémantique » construit à l’aide d’une série d’algorithmes qui permet d’extraire la causalité exprimée dans un document et de produire un graphe représentant ainsi le « cheminement causal » sous-jacent au document. On comprend l’intérêt pour la recherche scientifique ou industrielle de la mise en lumière ainsi créée du raisonnement afférent de l’équipe d’enquête. Pour cela, ces travaux exploitent les avancées en Machine Learning et Question Answering et en particulier les outils Natural Language Processing.Cette thèse est un travail d’assembleur, d’architecte, qui amène à la fois un regard premier sur le cas Deepwater Horizon et propose le forage des données, une méthode et des moyens originaux pour aborder un évènement, afin de faire émerger du matériau de recherche des réponses à des questionnements qui échappaient jusqu’alors à la compréhension. / Data drilling, the method and means developed in this thesis, redefines the process of data extraction, the formalization of knowledge and its enrichment, particularly in the context of the elucidation of events that have not or only slightly been documented. The Deepwater Horizon disaster, the drilling platform operated for BP in the Gulf of Mexico that suffered a blowout on April 20, 2010, will be our case study for the implementation of our proof of concept for data drilling. This accident is the result of an unprecedented discrepancy between the state of the art of drilling engineers' heuristics and that of pollution response engineers. The loss of control of the MC 252-1 well is therefore an engineering failure and it will take the response party eighty-seven days to regain control of the wild well and halt the pollution. Deepwater Horizon is in this sense a case of engineering facing extreme situation, as defined by Guarnieri and Travadel.First, we propose to return to the overall concept of accident by means of an in-depth linguistic analysis presenting the semantic spaces in which the accident takes place. This makes it possible to enrich its "core meaning" and broaden the shared acceptance of its definition.Then, we bring that the literature review must be systematically supported by algorithmic assistance to process the data taking into account the available volume, the heterogeneity of the sources and the requirements of quality and relevance standards. In fact, more than eight hundred scientific articles mentioning this accident have been published to date and some twenty investigation reports, constituting our research material, have been produced. Our method demonstrates the limitations of accident models when dealing with a case like Deepwater Horizon and the urgent need to look for an appropriate way to formalize knowledge.As a result, the use of upper-level ontologies should be encouraged. The DOLCE ontology has shown its great interest in formalizing knowledge about this accident and especially in elucidating very accurately a decision-making process at a critical moment of the intervention. The population, the creation of instances, is the heart of the exploitation of ontology and its main interest, but the process is still largely manual and not without mistakes. This thesis proposes a partial answer to this problem by an original NER algorithm for the automatic population of an ontology.Finally, the study of accidents involves determining the causes and examining "socially constructed facts". This thesis presents the original plans of a "semantic pipeline" built with a series of algorithms that extract the expressed causality in a document and produce a graph that represents the "causal path" underlying the document. It is significant for scientific or industrial research to highlight the reasoning behind the findings of the investigation team. To do this, this work leverages developments in Machine Learning and Question Answering and especially the Natural Language Processing tools.As a conclusion, this thesis is a work of a fitter, an architect, which offers both a prime insight into the Deepwater Horizon case and proposes the data drilling, an original method and means to address an event, in order to uncover answers from the research material for questions that had previously escaped understanding.

Horizontes cimentados foram estudados em Argissolos Amarelos, Argissolos Acinzentados e Espodossolos dos tabuleiros costeiros e em Neossolos Regolíticos e Planossolos da depressão sertaneja, no Nordeste do Brasil. A ênfase dos estudos foi direcionada para os horizontes cimentados desenvolvidos em suaves depressões dos tabuleiros costeiros. O objetivo principal foi caracterizar a natureza de agentes cimentantes e de horizontes cimentados considerados como duripãs e fragipãs, e inferir processos pedogenéticos envolvidos na formação dos mesmos. Os horizontes cimentados foram caracterizados com base em aspectos morfológicos, físicos, químicos, mineralógicos e micromorfológicos. A caracterização e a dedução dos agentes cimentantes foram estabelecidas com base, principalmente, em extrações seletivas de fases amorfas pelos métodos do oxalato de amônio, Tiron e pirofosfato de sódio. O refinamento dos estudos foi desenvolvido com o apoio da microscopia eletrônica. Na região dos tabuleiros costeiros, os resultados indicaram que os agentes cimentantes principais são compostos aluminosos, identificados como aluminossilicatos amorfos hidratados e, secundariamente, complexos organometálicos. Foi constatado, também, altas proporções de ferro em compostos amorfos, em associação com complexos organometálicos, cimentando finas camadas ferruginosas (horizonte plácico). O balanço geoquímico de massa em geral foi indicativo do acúmulo de alumínio nos horizontes cimentados, constituídos essencialmente por caulinita e quartzo. Conforme características e atributos diagnósticos, os horizontes com cimentação fraca foram enquadrados como fragipã. Os que apresentaram cimentação forte, em função da natureza dos agentes cimentantes principais, foram enquadrados como horizonte dúrico, ortstein e horizonte plácico. Portanto, parece ser inadequado o uso tradicional do termo duripã para denominar horizontes com agentes cimentantes principais aluminosos, como os desenvolvidos nesta região. No ambiente das suaves depressões, os principais mecanismos envolvidos na formação desses horizontes foram a podzolização moderada, o transporte mecânico de argila e condições hidromórficas, ainda que temporárias. Na zona da depressão sertaneja, ao contrário, foi constatado que os agentes cimentantes principais são compostos silicosos, mas sempre acompanhados por alumínio. Os horizontes com cimentação forte desenvolvidos em Neossolos Regolíticos mostraram um conjunto de características que permitiram enquadrá-los como duripãs. O horizonte com cimentação fraca desenvolvido no perfil de Planossolo, com mais de 10 cm de espessura, foi classificado como fragipã. O balanço geoquímico de massa não indicou nenhum acúmulo de silício nos horizontes cimentados. A composição mineralógica essencial destes horizontes apresentou caulinita, quartzo, feldspato e pequenas proporções de argilominerais 2:1. As investigações indicaram que as proporções entre o conteúdo de frações finas e os teores de agentes cimentantes foram fatores determinantes na diferenciação entre horizontes com cimentação forte e fraca. Entretanto, tais proporções só puderam ser observadas com mais detalhes nos horizontes cimentados desenvolvidos nos solos dos tabuleiros costeiros. / The present study was carried out in cemented horizons in Ultisols and Spodosols from the coastal tablelands, and in Inceptisols and Alfisols from the sertaneja depression of Northeast Brazil. The emphasis was concentrated on the cemented horizons developed in smooth depressions in the coastal tablelands. The main objective was to identify the cementing agents and to characterize horizons considered to be duripan and fragipan, and to infer the pedogenic processes involved in their formation. The morphological, micromorphological, physical, chemical, and mineralogical features of the cemented horizons were described. The identification of the cementing agents was achieved with selective extractions of the amorphous phases using ammonium oxalate, Tiron and sodium pyrophosphate. Detailed studies were carried out with an electron microscope. In the coastal tablelands region, the results indicated that the principal cementing agents are aluminum compounds, found to be amorphous hydrated aluminosilicates, and secondarily, organo-metallic complexes. The significant contents of amorphous iron compounds associated with organo-metallic complexes were found to cement thin ferruginous layers (placic horizon). The overall geochemical mass balance indicated the accumulation of aluminum in the cemented horizons composed mainly of quartz and kaolinite. Weakly cemented horizons were classified as fragipans. The more strongly cemented horizons were separated into duric, ortstein and placic horizons, according to their principal cementing agents. The traditional use of the term duripan seems to be inappropriate in the case of horizons in which the principal cementing agents are aluminous, such as those occurring in this region. In the smooth depression domain, the main mechanisms of the formation of these horizons are moderate podzolization, clay translocation, and the development of hydromorphic conditions, although temporary. In contrast, the main cementing agents in the sertaneja depression region are silicon compounds, always accompanied by aluminum. Strongly cemented horizons developed in Inceptisols have the characteristics of duripan. The weakly cemented horizon thicker than 10 cm within an Alfisol profile was classified as fragipan. The geochemical mass balance showed no silica accumulation in the cemented horizons. The mineralogical composition of these horizons includes kaolinite, quartz, feldspar and small amounts of 2:1 clay minerals. The investigations indicated that the relative proportions of fine fractions and cementing agents were the main factors in determining the degree of cementation. However, it was only possible to study these proportions in more detail in the cemented horizons of the soils formed on the coastal tablelands.

Horizontes cimentados foram estudados em Argissolos Amarelos, Argissolos Acinzentados e Espodossolos dos tabuleiros costeiros e em Neossolos Regolíticos e Planossolos da depressão sertaneja, no Nordeste do Brasil. A ênfase dos estudos foi direcionada para os horizontes cimentados desenvolvidos em suaves depressões dos tabuleiros costeiros. O objetivo principal foi caracterizar a natureza de agentes cimentantes e de horizontes cimentados considerados como duripãs e fragipãs, e inferir processos pedogenéticos envolvidos na formação dos mesmos. Os horizontes cimentados foram caracterizados com base em aspectos morfológicos, físicos, químicos, mineralógicos e micromorfológicos. A caracterização e a dedução dos agentes cimentantes foram estabelecidas com base, principalmente, em extrações seletivas de fases amorfas pelos métodos do oxalato de amônio, Tiron e pirofosfato de sódio. O refinamento dos estudos foi desenvolvido com o apoio da microscopia eletrônica. Na região dos tabuleiros costeiros, os resultados indicaram que os agentes cimentantes principais são compostos aluminosos, identificados como aluminossilicatos amorfos hidratados e, secundariamente, complexos organometálicos. Foi constatado, também, altas proporções de ferro em compostos amorfos, em associação com complexos organometálicos, cimentando finas camadas ferruginosas (horizonte plácico). O balanço geoquímico de massa em geral foi indicativo do acúmulo de alumínio nos horizontes cimentados, constituídos essencialmente por caulinita e quartzo. Conforme características e atributos diagnósticos, os horizontes com cimentação fraca foram enquadrados como fragipã. Os que apresentaram cimentação forte, em função da natureza dos agentes cimentantes principais, foram enquadrados como horizonte dúrico, ortstein e horizonte plácico. Portanto, parece ser inadequado o uso tradicional do termo duripã para denominar horizontes com agentes cimentantes principais aluminosos, como os desenvolvidos nesta região. No ambiente das suaves depressões, os principais mecanismos envolvidos na formação desses horizontes foram a podzolização moderada, o transporte mecânico de argila e condições hidromórficas, ainda que temporárias. Na zona da depressão sertaneja, ao contrário, foi constatado que os agentes cimentantes principais são compostos silicosos, mas sempre acompanhados por alumínio. Os horizontes com cimentação forte desenvolvidos em Neossolos Regolíticos mostraram um conjunto de características que permitiram enquadrá-los como duripãs. O horizonte com cimentação fraca desenvolvido no perfil de Planossolo, com mais de 10 cm de espessura, foi classificado como fragipã. O balanço geoquímico de massa não indicou nenhum acúmulo de silício nos horizontes cimentados. A composição mineralógica essencial destes horizontes apresentou caulinita, quartzo, feldspato e pequenas proporções de argilominerais 2:1. As investigações indicaram que as proporções entre o conteúdo de frações finas e os teores de agentes cimentantes foram fatores determinantes na diferenciação entre horizontes com cimentação forte e fraca. Entretanto, tais proporções só puderam ser observadas com mais detalhes nos horizontes cimentados desenvolvidos nos solos dos tabuleiros costeiros. / The present study was carried out in cemented horizons in Ultisols and Spodosols from the coastal tablelands, and in Inceptisols and Alfisols from the sertaneja depression of Northeast Brazil. The emphasis was concentrated on the cemented horizons developed in smooth depressions in the coastal tablelands. The main objective was to identify the cementing agents and to characterize horizons considered to be duripan and fragipan, and to infer the pedogenic processes involved in their formation. The morphological, micromorphological, physical, chemical, and mineralogical features of the cemented horizons were described. The identification of the cementing agents was achieved with selective extractions of the amorphous phases using ammonium oxalate, Tiron and sodium pyrophosphate. Detailed studies were carried out with an electron microscope. In the coastal tablelands region, the results indicated that the principal cementing agents are aluminum compounds, found to be amorphous hydrated aluminosilicates, and secondarily, organo-metallic complexes. The significant contents of amorphous iron compounds associated with organo-metallic complexes were found to cement thin ferruginous layers (placic horizon). The overall geochemical mass balance indicated the accumulation of aluminum in the cemented horizons composed mainly of quartz and kaolinite. Weakly cemented horizons were classified as fragipans. The more strongly cemented horizons were separated into duric, ortstein and placic horizons, according to their principal cementing agents. The traditional use of the term duripan seems to be inappropriate in the case of horizons in which the principal cementing agents are aluminous, such as those occurring in this region. In the smooth depression domain, the main mechanisms of the formation of these horizons are moderate podzolization, clay translocation, and the development of hydromorphic conditions, although temporary. In contrast, the main cementing agents in the sertaneja depression region are silicon compounds, always accompanied by aluminum. Strongly cemented horizons developed in Inceptisols have the characteristics of duripan. The weakly cemented horizon thicker than 10 cm within an Alfisol profile was classified as fragipan. The geochemical mass balance showed no silica accumulation in the cemented horizons. The mineralogical composition of these horizons includes kaolinite, quartz, feldspar and small amounts of 2:1 clay minerals. The investigations indicated that the relative proportions of fine fractions and cementing agents were the main factors in determining the degree of cementation. However, it was only possible to study these proportions in more detail in the cemented horizons of the soils formed on the coastal tablelands.

The current intellectual climate regarding economics seems to be at an agreement regarding the theory of uncovered interest parity and its unreliability within real life application. The purpose of this thesis is to test how the theory holds over periods with varying economic stability, both using a short- and long-horizon test in order to establish the usefulness of uncovered interest parity as a predictor for exchange rate movements. The short-horizon test will utilize the interbank offering rate, and the long-horizon test the yield to maturity of government 10-year benchmark bonds as the interest rate. The sample period is 2000 to 2018, covering the financial crisis of 2007. We will focus on three different time periods: pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis. We will use ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and an extreme sampling. From the regressions we conclude that most of the time periods move against the uncovered interest parity, where only the crisis period is in line with the theory. The extreme sampling supports this result, as larger interest differentials provide the rational expectations with more predictive power of the future spot exchange rate.

Daniel Faria (1971-1999) est l’auteur de trois livres de poésie, Explicação das Árvores e de Outros Animais ; Homens que São Como Lugares Mal Situados et Dos Líquidos, publiés pour la première fois chez un éditeur à la visibilité réduite, Fundação Manuel Leão. L’intérêt littéraire de son œuvre est avéré, mais cette dernière souffre encore d’un manque d’attention. Entre la perspective théologique qui tend à épuiser l’œuvre, à la circonscrire, les lectures passionnelles où il n’est plus question de la poursuite d’un sens, de la quête de la dimension herméneutique, et quelques articles littéraires, la poésie de Daniel Faria accuse, du point de vue du travail universitaire, un réel déficit. Pour lever l’indétermination dans laquelle se trouve la poésie de Daniel Faria et ainsi échapper aux risques d’une extension de lectures qui tendent, avec précipitation, vers l’idée première d’une œuvre incompréhensible, sensible en cela à la seule question de l’expérience du transcendant, notre étude se propose de suivre la démarche herméneutique qui garantit le statut fondamental d’altérité du texte. L’objectif est dès lors relativement clair : soustraire l’œuvre poétique de Daniel Faria de toute expérience affective, resituer sa poésie, la repositionner dans le champ des études littéraires pour enfin arriver à une lecture plus pertinente de son œuvre, au plus près de la vérité textuelle de l’œuvre. Tel est l’enjeu de cette étude : préciser la portée de cette poésie, en soulignant la constance et la cohérence d’une réflexion qui associe expérience poétique et expérience mystique, et élucider leurs rapports sans déposséder l’expérience mystique de son essence propre. / Daniel Faria is the author of three books of poetry, Explicação das Árvores e de Outros Animais ; Homens que São Como Lugares Mal Situados et Dos Líquidos, published for the first time at a editor at the reduced visibility, Fundação Manuel Leão. The literary interest of its work is proved true, but the latter still suffers from an inattention. Between the theological prospect which tends to exhaust the work, to confine it, the passionate readings where it is not any more question of the pursuit of a sense, a quest of the hermeneutic dimension, and some literary articles, Daniel Faria's poetry accuses, from the point of view of the university work, a real deficit. To raise the indecision in which is Daniel Faria's poetry and so to escape the risks of an extension of readings which aim, with haste, towards the first idea of an incomprehensible, sensitive work in it at the only question of the experience of the transcendent, our study suggests following the hermeneutic approach which guarantees the fundamental status of otherness of the text. The objective is relatively clear from then on: shield Daniel Faria's poetic work of any emotional experience, re-place its poetry, reposition it in the field of the literary studies to arrive finally at a more relevant reading of its work, as closely as possible to the textual truth of the work. Such is the stake in this study: specify the reach of this poetry, by underlining the constancy and the coherence of a reflection which associates poetic experience and mystic experience, and to clarify their reports without dispossessing the mystic experience of its appropriate essence.

L’explosion du forage et de la plate-forme pétrolière Deepwater Horizon (DWH) le 20 Avril 2010 a entrainé la plus importante catastrophe pétrolière de l’histoire des Etats-Unis, avec des quantités sans précédent de pétrole (779,000 T) et de gaz relâchées continuellement dans le Golfe du Mexique durant près de 3 mois. En retour et comme moyen de réponse, 8 million L de dispersant chimique (principalement Corexit 9500A®) furent utilisés pour disperser les nappes, dont 2.9 million L furent injectés directement à la tête du puits à 1500 m de profondeur. La marée noire coïncida avec la saison de ponte et de recrutement de l’huitre américaine Crassostrea virginica, une espèce à haute valeur écologique et commerciale dans le Golfe. En raison de ces caractéristiques biologiques (sédentaire, espèce filtreuse, répartition géographique, ponte et fécondation externe), les huitres ont été utilisées comme organisme modèle en écotoxicologie. Néanmoins, il existe très peu de données disponibles sur la toxicité du pétrole brute (HEWAF), du pétrole dispersé (CEWAF) ou du dispersant sur les jeunes stades de vie de C. virginica. L’objectif de ce travail de thèse fut 1) de déterminer les effets létaux et sublétaux d’expositions aigües et chroniques à du pétrole DWH et/ou du Corexit 9500A® sur différents stades de développement des jeunes huitres, 2) d’examiner les mécanismes de toxicité des HAP (dissouts ou particulaires) issus du pétrole et du dispersant sur des processus physiologiques sensibles, et 3) d’établir si les résultats obtenus en laboratoire correspondent aux valeurs recueillies sur le terrain lors du programme NRDA. Nos résultats ont démontré que le pétrole et/ou le dispersant pouvaient affecter la reproduction et le développement embryonnaire et larvaire de C. virginica, et que le pétrole dispersé et le dispersant induisaient en général le plus d’impact. En outre, des effets sublétaux tels que des inhibitions de croissance larvaire, de fixation ou de filtration furent observés à des niveaux d’HAP et de DOSS mesurés dans l’environnement. Ces résultats suggèrent que le pétrole et l’utilisation de dispersant, en particulier lors de la saison de ponte de l’huître, pourraient affecter son recrutement et impacter la ressource de façon délétère dans des régions touchées par une marée noire. Par ailleurs, des critères biologiques plus sensibles que la mortalité devraient être choisis et inclus dans une approche intégrative, afin d’estimer plus précisément l’impact environnemental des hydrocarbures et le devenir de ses constituants. / The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil drilling rig on 20th April 2010 resulted in the largest oil-related environmental disaster in U.S history with an unprecedented amount of oil (779,000 t) and gas discharged continuously in the Gulf of Mexico, over a period of 3 months. As a response, 8 million L of chemical dispersants (mainly Corexit 9500A®) were applied on surface to dissipate the slicks, and injected directly at the well head (3 million L) at 1500 m depths. The oil spill coincided with the spawning and recruitment season of the ecologically and commercially important Eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. Due to its biological characteristics (sessile, filter-feeding, ubiquity, “free” spawner), oysters have been employed as a model species in ecotoxicology and for monitoring the environment. However, information on the toxicity of crude oil (HEWAF), dispersed oil (CEWAF) and dispersant alone (Corexit 9500A®) on early developmental stages of C. virginica are limited. The aim of this study was to i) determine the lethal and sublethal effects of acute and chronic exposure to surface-collected DWH oil and/or Corexit 9500A® on various life stages of oysters, ii) examine the mode of toxicity of oil-associated PAHs (dissolved or particulate) and dispersant on sensitive physiological processes, and iii) establish whether there is a relationship between results collected in the laboratory and field data collected during the NRDA sampling program. Our results indicated that oil and/or dispersant adversely affected reproduction and early development of C. virginica, with dispersed oil and dispersant having generally the highest impacts. Furthermore, sublethal effects such as inhibition of larval growth, settlement success or filtration rates were observed at environmentally realistic concentrations of tPAHs or DOSS. These results suggest that oil spills and the use of dispersant as a spill response, especially at the time of oyster spawning season, could affect oyster recruitment and ultimately oyster populations in affected regions. Besides, in order to assess more precisely the environmental impact of an oil spill and the fate of its constituents, meaningful endpoints other than lethality should be selected

L’objectif de ce travail a été de proposer une méthode de détection de défaut pour le déplacement longitudinal du chariot mobile du Radiotélescope de Nançay. L’importance de l’implémentation d’une procédure de détection des défauts a été mise en évidence grâce à la description des besoins du personnel en charge de la maintenance de cet instrument scientifique. Ce mémoire débute par un état de l’art sur différentes méthodes de diagnostic (détection et isolation des défauts), une analyse critique de ces méthodes est réalisée. Nous rappelons ensuite les notions d’observabilité avant de présenter l’observateur de Newton et l’observateur de Ciccarella. L’extension de ce dernier aux systèmes MIMO est réalisée par la suite. Une comparaison de ces différents observateurs termine le chapitre 2. Le chapitre 3 présente le Radiotélescope de Nançay et plus particulièrement la modélisation du déplacement longitudinal du chariot mobile. Une étude des propriétés du modèle est abordée par la suite. Le dernier chapitre traite de la validation partielle du modèle obtenu au chapitre précédent. Ensuite, l’utilisation des relations de redondances analytiques a permis de mettre en évidence la faisabilité du diagnostic sur l’application. L’utilisation de l’extension de l’observateur de Ciccarella pour le diagnostic permet de réaliser la détection de défaut capteur en utilisant un banc d’observateurs. Le suivi de paramètres du modèle permet de suivre l’évolution du système (vieillissement par exemple) et la détection de défaut actionneurs. Dans l’ensemble, les résultats obtenus permettent de conclure sur la bonne détection des défauts capteurs et actionneurs. / The aim of this work was to propose a fault detection method for the longitudinal displacement of the mobile cart of the Radiotelescope of Nançay. The importance of the implementation of a procedure of detection of the defects was highlighted thanks to the description the needs of the personnel in charge of maintenance for this scientific instrument. This memory begin with a state of the art on various methods of diagnosis (detection and isolation of the default), a critical analysis of these methods is carried out. We point out then the concepts of observability before presenting the Newton observer and the Ciccarella observer. The extension of this last to systems MIMO is carried out thereafter. A comparison of these various observers finishes chapter 2. Chapter 3 presents the Radiotelescope of Nançay and more particularly the modelling of the longitudinal displacement of the mobile cart. A study of the properties of the model is approached thereafter. The final chapter covers validation partial of the model obtained in the preceding Chapter. Then, the use of analytical redundancy relations made it possible to highlight the feasibility of the diagnosis on the application. The use of the extension of the Ciccarella observer for the diagnosis makes it possible to carry out the detection of sensor fault by using a bench of observers. The follow-up of parameters of the model makes it possible to follow the evolution of the system (ageing for example) and the detection of defect actuators. As a whole, the results obtained make it possible to conclude on good detection from the sensor and actuator faults.

nÃo hà / Neste ensaio investiga-se a perda de conteÃdo dos modelos de previsÃo autoregressivos, na medida em que se alarga o horizonte temporal no qual a variÃvel à estimada. O conteÃdo à medido pela reduÃÃo relativa do erro quadrado mÃdio que o modelo proporciona em comparaÃÃo ao processo simplificado de utilizar a mÃdia incondicional da sÃrie temporal. A variÃvel estudada à a arrecadaÃÃo mensal do Imposto sobre CirculaÃÃo de Mercadorias e ServiÃos (ICMS) proveniente do segmento de energia elÃtrica, no Estado do CearÃ, no perÃodo de janeiro de 1999 a setembro de 2010. Utiliza-se o mÃtodo e o modelo computacional formulados por Galbraith (2003), analisando-se a forecast content function, na qual o conteÃdo depende do nÃmero de perÃodos estimados. Os resultados confirmam que, para a sÃrie temporal explorada, quando se eleva o alcance da previsÃo o conteÃdo decai rapidamente, podendo atingir valor inferior a 10% quando o horizonte da previsÃo chega a 5 meses. Verificou-se, ademais, que o uso de sub-amostras via descarte de perÃodos mais antigos agrava a perda de conteÃdo. / In this essay we investigate the loss of content in autoregressive forecast models, as it is increased the horizon of time in which the variable is estimated. The content is measured as the proportionate reduction in medium squared error (MSE) that the model gives, comparing to the simple process by using the unconditional mean of time series. The variable is the monthly collection of ICMS from electric power sector, in Cearà state, in the period from January 1999 to September 2010. We use the method and computational model formulated by Galbraith (2003), analyzing the forecast content function, in which the content depends on the number of estimated periods. The results confirm that, when it increases the range of forecast the content decays quickly, reaching less than 10% when the forecast horizons reaches 5 months. It was found further that the use of subsamples by discarding oldest periods increases the loss of content.

Air combat is a complex situation, training for it and analysis of possible tactics are time consuming and expensive. In order to circumvent those problems, mathematical models of air combat can be used. This thesis presents air combat as a one-on-one influence diagram game where the influence diagram allows the dynamics of the aircraft, the preferences of the pilots and the uncertainty of decision making in a structural and transparent way to be taken into account. To obtain the players’ game optimal control sequence with respect to their preferences, the influence diagram has to be solved. This is done by truncating the diagram with a moving horizon technique and determining and implementing the optimal controls for a dynamic game which only lasts a few time steps. The result is a working air combat model, where a player estimates the probability that it resides in any of four possible states. The pilot’s preferences are modeled by utility functions, one for each possible state. In each time step, the players are maximizing the cumulative sum of the utilities for each state which each possible action gives. These are weighted with the corresponding probabilities. The model is demonstrated and evaluated in a few interesting aspects. The presented model offers a way of analyzing air combat tactics and maneuvering as well as a way of making autonomous decisions in for example air combat simulators.