In Sweden, the indigenous Sami have exclusive rights to reindeer husbandry, which continues to provide for a minority of Sami in economically and culturally significant ways. However, the Sami have faced longstanding challenges including marginalization within Swedish society, competing interests from multiple industries, a diminishing land base and environmental changes impacting the herds. Meanwhile, gender relations within Sami communities have changed since the mid-19th century as a result of Swedish policies and other factors. These ecological and social changes have impacted the capacity of Sami communities to adapt to dynamic environmental conditions. While researchers have focused attention on the contribution of “adaptive capacity” (AC) to the resilience of local communities, there is relatively little attention given to Sami populations in Scandinavia. Furthermore, studies regarding AC at the community level generally consider communities as homogenous entities, with little attention paid to how gender relations affect the AC of communities. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to address this gap and to inform gender-sensitive policy and practice in resource-based communities. My study developed a framework for AC that is sensitive to the lifestyle of reindeer herders in Sweden. Data were collected from 81 questionnaires, 9 interviews and other relevant documents, for each of the 51 reindeer herding districts in Sweden. From these sources, I traced contributions of Sami women and men while also exploring changes in AC over time. The results of the study show that the contribution of cultural and economic capitals to AC is strong among the Sami while the contribution of institutional and natural capitals is weaker. |Both men and women have contributed to their AC and the transformation of their communities, each making unique contributions. The results suggest that herders are proactive in directing the transformation of their society towards one that embraces contemporary technology and opportunities, while maintaining values that support a longstanding cultural tradition. These findings suggest that isolating gendered inputs to adaptation may help create more specific targets for increasing capacity while augmenting their overall effectiveness and efficiency.

No description available.

Die Dissertation befasst sich mit der Erweiterung und Anwendung des allgemeinen räumlichen Gleichgewicht- und Transportmodells RELU-TRAN (Anas und Liu, 2007) und analysiert verschiedene verkehrs- und klimabezogene Politikmaßnahmen (Tempo-30 in Städten, Infrastrukturqualität, Anpassung an den Klimawandel) in einer Stadtökonomie.

The Mexican Caribbean tourism sector is highly exposed to hurricane activity, yet coastal tourism is also a major driver influencing regional biophysical and social vulnerability to climate risks. Drawing on a political ecology approach and a vulnerability assessment, this study asks how experiences with extreme hurricane events in the Mexican Caribbean shape climate change adaptation in the regional tourism sector. This study uses multiple methods, scales and field sites to (a) examine how biophysical vulnerability to extreme hurricanes affects the tourism sector, (b) explain the changing conditions of social vulnerability linked to hurricane damage in the tourism sector and (c) assess the present and future opportunities and obstacles for adaptation planning. The main findings show that the region is experiencing a phase of unprecedented high intensity hurricanes. It is uncertain, however, whether changes in hurricane activity exceed natural multi-decadal variability. Tourism is one major driver of land use changes which have resulted in some of the world’s fastest increase in coastal urban sprawl. Most tourism infrastructure is located in areas with the greatest exposure to hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma which hit the region in 2005 is the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the Mexican insurance industry. Hotels have showed a high ability to recover operations after hurricanes. There is a high penetration of insurance ownership in hotels and there is substantial mobilization of public and private financial and human resources during hurricane disasters. Hotel responses to hurricanes, however, tend to be reactive and autonomous. One important consequence of hurricanes is that hoteliers in the interest to reduce operational costs, fire those workers with the weakest labour rights. Thus, hotel workers suffer from ‘double exposure’, a situation where hotel workers are confronted with the consequences of climate change while simultaneously suffering the consequences of globalization and neoliberal policies which have reduced the power of unions and weakened access to social security. The Mexican government has created a national climate change strategy and its operational programme which has led to the consolidation of an adaptation organizational structures at the national and state levels. I conclude, however, that adaptation planning may not result in the necessary actions on the ground since local actors are not well integrated yet into such efforts. This study shows the importance of regional adaptation research that takes into account perspectives from both the physical and social sciences. This study highlights the importance of interactions between local actors, the larger socioeconomic and political economy context to inform adaptation planning and policy.

A região Nordeste, primeira a ser ocupada após a chegada dos portugueses no Brasil no século XVI, possui 53% do seu território sob regime do clima semiárido. Nesse espaço, onde vivem 12 milhões de pessoas, as crises causadas por escassez de água, apontadas como barreiras ao desenvolvimento, são conhecidas há mais de um século, causaram perdas agrícolas, migrações e mortes. A região, de conhecida variabilidade climática, é ainda uma das mais vulneráveis do globo às mudanças climáticas. Até o fim desse século, previsões indicam que a temperatura pode subir 4 C em relação à era pré-industrial, com forte impacto sobre os recursos hídricos e desertificação. Diante desse cenário, medidas que oferecem às populações locais condições de se adaptarem se fazem urgentes. Proposto há mais de um século como solução dos problemas trazidos pela escassez de água no semiárido, a transposição do rio São Francisco passou a ser implantada a partir de 2007 sob nome oficial de Projeto de Integração do rio São Francisco com as Bacias Hidrográficas do Nordeste Setentrional (PISF). Trata-se da maior obra de infraestrutura hídrica do país, projetada para transferir 26,4 m3/s por dois eixos principais, Norte e Leste, o volume transportado pelos canais é destinado principalmente ao consumo humano e dessedentação animal. Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar o Eixo Leste do PISF como potencial medida de adaptação às mudanças climáticas. A estratégia de investigação aplicada nesse trabalho interdisciplinar se enquadra na pesquisa qualitativa, apoia-se em documentos, imagens, entrevistas não estruturadas e visitas de campo. A pesquisa conclui que a distribuição de água feita pelo Eixo Leste do PISF não contribui para que as populações mais vulneráveis do semiárido se adaptem às mudanças climáticas, mas que o projeto tem potencial para se converter em tal medida. / The Brazilian Northeast region, the first to be occupied after the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century, has 53% of its territory under a semi-arid climate regime. This space is home to 12 million people, it has been hit by crises caused by water shortages, which are understood as barriers to development. Known by its climatic variability, the semiarid portion of the Northeast is one of the world\'s most vulnerable region to climate change. By the end of this century, predictions indicate that temperature could rise by 4 C as compared to the pre- industrial time, with a strong impact on water resources and desertification. Given this scenario, it is urgent to discuss measures that offer the local population conditions to adapt. Proposed more than a century ago as a solution to the problems brought about by the water scarcity in the semiarid, the project to divert Brazil\'s Sao Francisco river began to be implemented in 2007 under the official name of the São Francisco River Integration Project with the Northern Northeast Hydro Basins (PISF). It is the largest water infrastructure project in the country, designed to transfer 26.4 m3/s through two main axes, Northern and Eastern. The volume transported by the channels is mainly intended for human and animal consumption. This dissertation aims to analyze the Eastern Axis of the PISF of the Northeast of Brazil as a potential adaptation to climate change measure. The research strategy applied in this interdisciplinary work fits the qualitative research, relies on documents, images, unstructured interviews and field visits. The research concludes that the distribution of water by the Eastern Axis of the PISF does not contribute to the adaptation of most vulnerable populations in the semiarid region, but that PISF has the potential to convert to that such measure.

A região Nordeste, primeira a ser ocupada após a chegada dos portugueses no Brasil no século XVI, possui 53% do seu território sob regime do clima semiárido. Nesse espaço, onde vivem 12 milhões de pessoas, as crises causadas por escassez de água, apontadas como barreiras ao desenvolvimento, são conhecidas há mais de um século, causaram perdas agrícolas, migrações e mortes. A região, de conhecida variabilidade climática, é ainda uma das mais vulneráveis do globo às mudanças climáticas. Até o fim desse século, previsões indicam que a temperatura pode subir 4 C em relação à era pré-industrial, com forte impacto sobre os recursos hídricos e desertificação. Diante desse cenário, medidas que oferecem às populações locais condições de se adaptarem se fazem urgentes. Proposto há mais de um século como solução dos problemas trazidos pela escassez de água no semiárido, a transposição do rio São Francisco passou a ser implantada a partir de 2007 sob nome oficial de Projeto de Integração do rio São Francisco com as Bacias Hidrográficas do Nordeste Setentrional (PISF). Trata-se da maior obra de infraestrutura hídrica do país, projetada para transferir 26,4 m3/s por dois eixos principais, Norte e Leste, o volume transportado pelos canais é destinado principalmente ao consumo humano e dessedentação animal. Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar o Eixo Leste do PISF como potencial medida de adaptação às mudanças climáticas. A estratégia de investigação aplicada nesse trabalho interdisciplinar se enquadra na pesquisa qualitativa, apoia-se em documentos, imagens, entrevistas não estruturadas e visitas de campo. A pesquisa conclui que a distribuição de água feita pelo Eixo Leste do PISF não contribui para que as populações mais vulneráveis do semiárido se adaptem às mudanças climáticas, mas que o projeto tem potencial para se converter em tal medida. / The Brazilian Northeast region, the first to be occupied after the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century, has 53% of its territory under a semi-arid climate regime. This space is home to 12 million people, it has been hit by crises caused by water shortages, which are understood as barriers to development. Known by its climatic variability, the semiarid portion of the Northeast is one of the world\'s most vulnerable region to climate change. By the end of this century, predictions indicate that temperature could rise by 4 C as compared to the pre- industrial time, with a strong impact on water resources and desertification. Given this scenario, it is urgent to discuss measures that offer the local population conditions to adapt. Proposed more than a century ago as a solution to the problems brought about by the water scarcity in the semiarid, the project to divert Brazil\'s Sao Francisco river began to be implemented in 2007 under the official name of the São Francisco River Integration Project with the Northern Northeast Hydro Basins (PISF). It is the largest water infrastructure project in the country, designed to transfer 26.4 m3/s through two main axes, Northern and Eastern. The volume transported by the channels is mainly intended for human and animal consumption. This dissertation aims to analyze the Eastern Axis of the PISF of the Northeast of Brazil as a potential adaptation to climate change measure. The research strategy applied in this interdisciplinary work fits the qualitative research, relies on documents, images, unstructured interviews and field visits. The research concludes that the distribution of water by the Eastern Axis of the PISF does not contribute to the adaptation of most vulnerable populations in the semiarid region, but that PISF has the potential to convert to that such measure.

The present worldwide scenario is one of land-based livelihoods that are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While being committed to environmental goals, India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change released in 2008, reaffirms that maintaining a high growth rate is essential to raising the standard of living of the people. Curbing emissions while maintaining high growth rates and achieving the Millennium Development Goals without increase in fossil fuel consumption, both appear to be paradoxes. Community-based micro energy initiatives have the potential to support productive development without fossil fuel consumption. This study examines small scale, village level biodiesel production for local use, based on unutilized and under-utilized, existing oil seeds in remote rural locations in Orissa, India. The village level biodiesel model is a response to large agro-industrial models that promote plantation of energy crops like jatropha, and to centralized production of biofuels as an alternative to petrodiesel. Village level biodiesel adds value to the large quantity of locally unutilized forest seeds and underutilized short duration oilseed crops like niger that are exported as birdfeed, to fuel livelihoods and boost the local economy. The development of a village level biodiesel model in a participatory manner within an agroecosystem boundary, and its ability to catalyze livelihoods that are sustainable, have been analyzed. Participant observation techniques have been used to develop narrative case studies for three village communities. Methodology for the study is based on Participatory Action Research approaches (Kemmis et al., 2000), where the research process has contributed to community action. The Sustainable Livelihood approach forms an important foundation of this research. A conceptual framework adapted from the original Sustainable Livelihood Framework (Scoones, 1998), to include Complex Systems Thinking (Holling, et al., 1995, Kay, et al., 1999) was used to analyze case studies in two communities of Orissa, India. Informed by results in the first two case communities, the same framework was used to develop a livelihood strategy based on Village Level Biodiesel (VLB), in a third cluster of villages also in Orissa. Three additional inclusions are proposed as a result of the research, to address some gaps in the original framework. These are the concepts of (1) Entitlements (Leach, et al., 1997) to understand power structures, (2) Adaptation Continuum (McGray 2007) to include issues of climate impacts and (3) Rural Livelihood System (Hogger, 2004) as a complex whole relating the inner reality of the farmer to the outer reality of a swiftly globalizing world. Resilience of livelihoods was identified as a key outcome parameter. Three main considerations for assessing sustainability and resilience of livelihoods, as defined by this research are (1) potential for livelihood diversity and intensity, (2) connectedness of the institutions involved in the decision making process, and (3) adaptation – that is resilience of livelihoods in terms of their capacity to resist drivers of vulnerability and confront impacts of climate change. The VLB in Orissa approaches livelihood diversity and intensity through a three-pronged approach consisting of biodiesel fuelled livelihoods, sustainable agriculture and local value addition. Careful attention is given to the specifics of the context in designing the VLB, thus enhancing the adaptive capacity of the technology. In the context of India, with the devolution of power to the local level, the Gram Sabha, or the village governing council, has political powers and the ability to negotiate with the State because of the authority vested in it by the 73rd amendment to the Constitution of India, and can additionally regulate the market at the local level. Leveraging the powers of this entity may provide the VLB with the needed impetus to replicate and move beyond pilot implementations. Obstacles in the implementation and strategies to overcome these have been identified. The challenge to future research and action is to span regional, national and global levels to influence policy makers to take cognizance of and promote the VLB as a viable development alternative to agro-industrial models designed to generate transport fuel.

The present worldwide scenario is one of land-based livelihoods that are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While being committed to environmental goals, India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change released in 2008, reaffirms that maintaining a high growth rate is essential to raising the standard of living of the people. Curbing emissions while maintaining high growth rates and achieving the Millennium Development Goals without increase in fossil fuel consumption, both appear to be paradoxes. Community-based micro energy initiatives have the potential to support productive development without fossil fuel consumption. This study examines small scale, village level biodiesel production for local use, based on unutilized and under-utilized, existing oil seeds in remote rural locations in Orissa, India. The village level biodiesel model is a response to large agro-industrial models that promote plantation of energy crops like jatropha, and to centralized production of biofuels as an alternative to petrodiesel. Village level biodiesel adds value to the large quantity of locally unutilized forest seeds and underutilized short duration oilseed crops like niger that are exported as birdfeed, to fuel livelihoods and boost the local economy. The development of a village level biodiesel model in a participatory manner within an agroecosystem boundary, and its ability to catalyze livelihoods that are sustainable, have been analyzed. Participant observation techniques have been used to develop narrative case studies for three village communities. Methodology for the study is based on Participatory Action Research approaches (Kemmis et al., 2000), where the research process has contributed to community action. The Sustainable Livelihood approach forms an important foundation of this research. A conceptual framework adapted from the original Sustainable Livelihood Framework (Scoones, 1998), to include Complex Systems Thinking (Holling, et al., 1995, Kay, et al., 1999) was used to analyze case studies in two communities of Orissa, India. Informed by results in the first two case communities, the same framework was used to develop a livelihood strategy based on Village Level Biodiesel (VLB), in a third cluster of villages also in Orissa. Three additional inclusions are proposed as a result of the research, to address some gaps in the original framework. These are the concepts of (1) Entitlements (Leach, et al., 1997) to understand power structures, (2) Adaptation Continuum (McGray 2007) to include issues of climate impacts and (3) Rural Livelihood System (Hogger, 2004) as a complex whole relating the inner reality of the farmer to the outer reality of a swiftly globalizing world. Resilience of livelihoods was identified as a key outcome parameter. Three main considerations for assessing sustainability and resilience of livelihoods, as defined by this research are (1) potential for livelihood diversity and intensity, (2) connectedness of the institutions involved in the decision making process, and (3) adaptation – that is resilience of livelihoods in terms of their capacity to resist drivers of vulnerability and confront impacts of climate change. The VLB in Orissa approaches livelihood diversity and intensity through a three-pronged approach consisting of biodiesel fuelled livelihoods, sustainable agriculture and local value addition. Careful attention is given to the specifics of the context in designing the VLB, thus enhancing the adaptive capacity of the technology. In the context of India, with the devolution of power to the local level, the Gram Sabha, or the village governing council, has political powers and the ability to negotiate with the State because of the authority vested in it by the 73rd amendment to the Constitution of India, and can additionally regulate the market at the local level. Leveraging the powers of this entity may provide the VLB with the needed impetus to replicate and move beyond pilot implementations. Obstacles in the implementation and strategies to overcome these have been identified. The challenge to future research and action is to span regional, national and global levels to influence policy makers to take cognizance of and promote the VLB as a viable development alternative to agro-industrial models designed to generate transport fuel.

Au Sahel, la répartition des pluies irrégulière dans le temps et dans l’espace engendre une forte interaction variété x année et variété x lieu. Pour déterminer les variétés les plus productives en espérance en fonction des lieux, il faudrait de nombreuses années d’expérimentation en chaque lieu, ce qui prendrait beaucoup de temps.Une alternative est de maximiser la production prédite à l’aide d’un modèle de culture décrivant la croissance et le développement de cultures en interaction avec leurs conditions agro-environnementales.La production à maximiser est moyenne sur une distribution de probabilitéd’entrées environnementales, spécifique du lieu, alors que les paramètres variétaux qui maximisent cette production définissent un but de sélection que l’on appelle idéotype.Dans ce travail, nous voulons déterminer une carte d’idéotypes de sorgho. Nous sommes donc confrontés à un problème d’optimisation d’un modèle complexe. Une méthode classiquement utilisée dans ce contexte est la méthode Efficient Global Optimization (EGO), fondée sur un métamodèle de krigeage. Ici, une telle approche n'est pas adaptée. En effet, la distribution des entrées météorologiques suit un modèle stochastiquedont les paramètres varient continûment dans l’espace en suivant un gradient Nord-Sud. L’optimisation des paramètres variétaux est alors conditionnelle à ces paramètres de climat. D’autre part, la fonction à maximiser n’est connue que par un nombre limité de simulations, donc à une erreur près.Notre cadre de travail concerne donc l'optimisation conditionnelle d'une fonction bruitée. Les extensions existantes de l'algorithe $EGO$ ne prennent pas en charge ce cadre. Dans cette thèse, un nouveau critère pour l'optimisation conditionnelle d'une fonction bruitée est proposée et étudié. Une métaphore de l'optimisation conditionnelle est la recherche d'une ligne de crête. A partir de simulations sur des fonctions test, une étude des performances de ce nouveau critère est proposée, de même qu'une comparaison avec le critère habituellement utilisé pour la recherche de ligne de crête. Les résultats de cette étude montrent l'intérêt de notre critère.L'application à la cartographie d'idéotypes de sorgho a été testée sur l'espace couvert par le Sénégal, le sud du Mali et le Burkina Faso. Elle a consisté à maximiser le rendement espéré en fonction de 4 paramètres du modèle Samara : la longueur de la phase végétative, la longueur maximale des racines, le potentiel de réserve des tiges, et la mortalité des feuilles. Les résultats de cette optimisation recoupent en partie l'analyse de sensibilité menée sur ces mêmes paramètres. / In the Sahel region, the irregular rainfall distribution in time and space generates variety x year and variety x location interactions. Therefore, determining variety with the best expected yield would take many years of experimentation in each location.Alternatively, the best variety could be identified by maximizing the predicted yield using a crop simulation model that describes growth and development of a crop in interaction with agro-environmental conditions.The average yield depends on the probability distribution of environmental inputs, which is location specific, while the cultivar parameters that maximizethis yield define the ideotype, i.e. the selection target.In this work, we want to draw the map of sorghum ideotypes in Sub Saharan Africa. To face the problem of optimizing a complex model, an algorithm conventionally used in this context is the Efficient Global Optimization method (EGO), based on kriging as a surrogate model. Here, the distribution of meteorological inputs follows a stochastic model whose parameters varycontinuously in space along a North-South gradient. Consequently, the optimization of varietal parameters is conditional on these climate parameters. Moreover, the function to maximize is noisy, because expectation and quantilesare merely estimated with a limited number of simulations. We aimed at adapting the EGO algorithm to the conditional optimization of a noisy function. Extensions exist either for the optimization of noisy functions or for the conditional optimization of deterministic functions, ie the search for the values of a subset of parameters that optimize the function conditionally to the values taken by another subset, which are fixed. A metaphor for conditional optimization is the search for a crest line. No method has yet been developed for the conditional optimization of noisy functions: this is what we propose in this thesis. Testing this new method on test functions shows that, in case of a high level of noise on the function, the PEQI criterion that we propose is better than the PEI criterion usually implemented in such a situation.The application of this new optimization method sorghum ideotypes parameters mapping has been tested in the area covered by Senegal, southern Mali and Burkina Faso. It consisted in maximizing the expected yield with respect to 4 parameters of Samara model: vegetative phase length, maximum root length, stem reserve potential, and leaf mortality. The results of this optimization partly coincide with the sensitivity analysis conducted on these same parameters.

Les alpages sont des espaces utilisés par la majorité des exploitations d’élevage de montagne et de Provence, qui y envoient tout ou partie de leurs troupeaux durant la saison estivale. Ce sont des milieux très riches sur le plan environnemental, mais aussi très fragiles et gérés exclusivement par le pâturage des troupeaux, constituant de ce fait des espaces particuliers dans la problématique de l’adaptation au changement climatique pour les systèmes d’élevage provençaux et de montagne. Or le constat est fait que les approches de diagnostic d’alpage et les références utilisées au plan pastoral présentent des lacunes pour appréhender la gestion dynamique des alpages : vision statique des végétations d’alpage et des pratiques, prise en compte des aléas et de la variabilité interannuelle souvent réduite à un coefficient forfaitaire de sécurité... et pas de prise en considération des interactions entre alpage et exploitations utilisatrices. Afin de renouveler ces cadres d’analyse, notre travail de thèse propose une modélisation conceptuelle du fonctionnement du système « alpage-exploitations », intégrant les plans biophysique et de la gestion. La construction du modèle s’appuie sur la combinaison de travaux en écologie et en agronomie « système », et de dires d’expert (modélisation participative). Le modèle est mis à l’épreuve sur une diversité de cas, issus du réseau Alpages Sentinelles dans le massif Alpin. Une analyse de la vulnérabilité des systèmes à la recrudescence des aléas climatiques est effectuée en étudiant leur exposition aux aléas puis leur sensibilité ; afin d’intégrer la dynamique de long terme du changement climatique dans la gestion des alpages, une analyse mobilisant les théories de la résilience socio-écologique est proposée en complément. / Alpine pastures, or mountain summer pastures can be defined as permanent grasslands used in summer by mountain and surrounding plains farmers (especially Provence in the French Alps). They are rich but fragile ecosystems, managed exclusively through the grazing of herds. Therefore adaptation to climate change is very specific on these spaces. Pastoral diagnosis methods and technical references are insufficient to analyse dynamic management of summer mountain pastures: static vision of vegetation and practices, climatic hazards considered only through a security coefficient, and no consideration for interactions between summer pastures and farms. In order to renew these analytical frameworks, our PhD thesis proposes a conceptual model of how the system “mountain summer pastures-farm” works, both in biophysical terms and in terms of management. The building of this model relies both on researches in ecology and agronomy, and on participatory modelling. We evaluate the model through an analysis of the vulnerability to climatic hazards of a diversified sample of systems. In order to take into account long term dynamics of climate change, we also mobilise the theories of social-ecological resilience.