Orientador: Joel Carlos Lastória / Coorientador: Lígia Vizeu Barrozo / Banca: Maria Stella de Mello Ayres Putinatti / Banca: Hélio Amante Miot / Banca: Susilene Maria Tonelli Nardi / Banca: Ida Foschiani Dias Baptista / Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo foi Identificar o padrão da distribuição espacial da hanseníase no município de Rondonópolis e sua relação com a situação clínico - epidemiológica da doença nos anos de 2000 a 2010. Foi utilizado um Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), o Arcgis 9.3, para determinar a localização espacial dos 1.832 casos novos e elaborar os mapas temáticos. Utilizou-se o programa MapInfo, versão 7.8, para geocodificação dos casos. A análise de agrupamento foi desenvolvida a partir da metodologia de análise espacial, a estatística de varredura (Scan). Foram utilizadas as bases cartográficas e os dados populacionais dos censos de 2000 e 2010 do IBGE. Portanto, as análises dos dados foram dividas em dois períodos, sendo de 2000 a 2005 e 2006 a 2010. Para a elaboração dos mapas com agrupamentos espaciais de casos novos de hanseníase paucibacilar, multibacilar, em menores de 15 anos e na população total, foram utilizados a base cartográfica digital de endereços do município de Rondonópolis e o software ARCGIS 9.3. Os indicadores socioeconômicos foram mapeados segundo a técnica cartográfica coroplética. A partir da análise desses dados, observou-se em todas as populações estratificadas redução do coeficiente de detecção geral, aumento dos agrupamentos espaciais de alto risco em todas as populações estratificadas, acentuada alteração na distribuição dos agrupamentos de alto e baixo risco, detecção do agrupamento de alto risco em menores de 15 anos no período de 2006 a 2010, sinalizando doença recente e presença de foco ativo, sobreposição do agrupamento de alto risco da população de multibacilar e menor de 15 anos. As conclusões mostram que em Rondonópolis a hanseníase continua sendo um problema de saúde pública em todo o município, apresentando áreas espaciais de alto risco, que demandam intensificar ainda mais as ações e estratégias prioritárias de busca ativa para... / Abstract: The objective of this study was to identify a pattern of spatial distribution of leprosy cases from 2000 to 2010, in the Rondonópolis municipality and its relationship with clinical epidemiological aspects of the disease. The Geographic Information System (GIS), ArcGIS 9.3, was used to determine the spatial location of 1,832 new cases and prepare thematic maps. MapInfo program, version 7.8, was used for geocoding the leprosy cases. Cluster analysis was carried out using the spatial analysis methodology, scan statistics (Scan). The cartographic databases and population census data of 2000 and 2010 from IBGE were used. Therefore, the analysis was performed in two periods, 2000 to 2005 and 2006 to 2010. The digital cartographic database of Rondonópolis addresses and the software ArcGIS 9.3 were used in order to build the new cases spatial clusters maps stratifying the cases as paucibacillary leprosy, multibacillary leprosy and disease in children under 15 years and the total population. Socioeconomic indicators were mapped according to coropletic cartographic technique. The analysis in all stratified populations revealed an overall reduction in the detection rate and increase in high-risk spatial clusters in all stratified populations. In addition a marked change was observed in the distribution of high and low risk groups and in detection high risk cluster in children under 15 years in the period of 2006 to 2010, signaling recent illness and presence of active focus of disease, besides an overlap of high-risk group of the multibacillary population with disease in children under 15 years. The findings show that leprosy remains a public health problem in the entire municipality, with demonstration of spatial high-risk areas that evidence the need of intensifying actions and definition of priority strategies for active search of leprosy cases / Doutor

Orientadores: Lucí Hidalgo Nunes, Armando Zaupa Remacre, Michael James Friedel / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T10:14:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Koga-Vicente_Andrea_D.pdf: 5761562 bytes, checksum: 071a6fa472f20045e34a37442cb5d89b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: A incerteza é inerente ao funcionamento do sistema hidrometeorológico. Neste trabalho buscou-se incorporar esse conceito no estudo sobre as precipitações que causam impactos nas regiões da Baixada Santista e Litoral Norte paulista. Considerando que as incertezas epistêmicas podem ser diminuídas a partir do melhor conhecimento sobre o fenômeno, foram realizadas investigações sobre as chuvas que deflagraram impactos, e admitindo que as incertezas aleatórias possam ser minimizadas por meio de ferramentas que demonstrem possíveis cenários para o desenrolar do evento, foram elaborados mapas de probabilidade, de desvio padrão e propostas modelagens preditivas. Com base em informações levantadas sobre os impactos associados à chuva que ocorreram em doze municípios entre 1994/95 e 2003/04, foi investigada a distribuição espacial e temporal dos registros e da pluviometria associada. Verificou-se que os eventos pluviais que causaram problemas são compostos por chuvas contínuas com um pico mais intenso, sendo que em 1999/00 e 1995/96 houve maior ocorrência de impactos registrados. Embora os maiores totais pluviométricos tenham ocorrido em Bertioga, os municípios de Santos e Guarujá apresentaram mais problemas; por outro lado, o maior número de vítimas foi registrado em Ubatuba, indicando que embora a vulnerabilidade seja o cerne do impacto, a suscetibilidade determinou a magnitude das pessoas afetadas. A partir da simulação estocástica foram elaborados cenários de distribuição espacial das precipitações com e sem a incorporação de variáveis físicas relacionadas, resultando em mapas que apontam locais com maior probabilidade de serem atingidos por chuvas acima de 80,0 mm/24h durante episódios pluviais impactantes e de mapas que representaram a incerteza associada à variabilidade espacial, fortemente associada à escarpa da Serra do Mar. Estes mapas podem ser usados como ferramenta no planejamento regional, bem como os modelos de predição de impactos propostos a partir da utilização de duas abordagens: (1) o Mapa Auto-Organizável, uma rede neural artificial não supervisionada, indicada para relações não-lineares e (2) uma técnica empírica de Regressão Linear Múltipla, tradicional em estudos preditivos. Os modelos propostos apresentaram entre 71% e 82% de acurácia na predição de ocorrências de impactos deflagrados por precipitações / Abstract: Uncertainty is part of the hydrometeorological system working. This research looked for ways to incorporate this concept in the study about the precipitations that cause impacts in Baixada Santista area and the North Coast of São Paulo state. Regarding that the epistemic uncertainties can be decreased when better knowledge about the phenomenon is acquired, investigations about the rain which cause impacts were made, and assuming that the random uncertainties can be decreased by using tools that show possible scenarios to develop the event, maps of probability and standard deviation were made, and also predictive modelings were proposed. Based on information raised about the impacts associated to rain that happened in twelve municipalities between 1994/95 and 2003/04, the spatial and time record distribution and the associated rainfall were studied. The rainfall events that had caused problems were mostly compound of continuous rain with a stronger peak, being in 1999/00 and 1995/96 the largest impacts recorded. Although the greatest total rainfall amounts happened in the city of Bertioga, major impacts were recorded in Santos and Guarujá. However, most victims were recorded in the city of Ubatuba showing that, although vulnerability is the core of the impact, the susceptibility determined the magnitude of people affected. By applying the stochastic simulation, scenarios of spatial distribution of precipitations were created with and without the incorporation of related physical variables. It resulted in maps that show locations with great probability of being reached by rain over 80.0 mm/24h during impacting rainfall episodes and maps that represent the uncertainty associated to the spatial variability strongly associated to the Serra do Mar escarpment. These maps can be used as tools to a regional planning, as well as the prediction models of impacts proposed from the use of two approaches: (1) the Self-Organized Map, an artificial neural net unsupervised, indicated to non-linear relations, and (2) an empirical technique of Multiple Linear Regression, traditional in predictive studies. The proposed models showed between 71% and 82% of accuracy in predicting impact caused by rainfalls / Doutorado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Doutor em Ciências

Orientador: Marcos Cesar Ferreira / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-13T02:47:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gomes_PriscilaBrochado_D.pdf: 6950162 bytes, checksum: fc83241a2e03189e1a609b95c290e928 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: O surgimento de sensores de alta resolução espacial permitiu que o nível de detalhamento das imagens de satélite chegasse ao ponto em que estudos de ecologia florestal pudessem ser realizados, através deste instrumento, com base em informações de espécies e indivíduos arbóreos. Tal tema de pesquisa é um campo promissor, já que a possibilidade de se estudar árvores de uma floresta à distância, pode contribuir para maior agilidade e menor custo do manejo florestal, minimizando custos de boa parte dos levantamentos de campo. Os objetivos deste trabalho foram investigar alguns procedimentos metodológicos utilizando imagens do satélite Quickbird, combinadas a dados de campo e a ferramentas computacionais para detecção, identificação e mapeamento de árvores de uma floresta semidecidua e de um cerradão no estado de São Paulo. O método de classificação orientada a objetos foi adequado para a identificação das espécies Sclerolobium paniculatum e Mabea fistulifera nas imagens Quickbird. A baixa resolução espectral destas imagens pode ser compensada pelo uso de informações espaciais dos indivíduos de interesse na classificação orientada a objetos. O método utilizado foi apropriado para a separação entre árvores decíduas e perenefólias da floresta semidecidua, porém, para esta formação florestal, a identificação de espécies não foi possível. Índices de vegetação obtidos através da álgebra de bandas de imagens Quickbird e Aster se mostraram boas fontes de informação para a elaboração de mapas de distribuição potencial de espécies arbóreas. Estes resultados indicam que, dependendo da formação florestal estudada e da espécie de interesse, a resolução espacial do satélite Quickbird pode ser satisfatória para a identificação de espécies arbóreas e que essas imagens têm grande aplicação em estudos biogeográficos. / Abstract: New high resolution satellite images, like Ikonos and Quickbird, provide great potential to monitor and study trees of tropical forest through species identification and mapping. This topic of research is a promising field since remote sensing has potential to provide, at lower cost, forest information with great coverage than is attainable using field sampling. The objective of this thesis was to investigate some methodological proceedings using Quickbird images, combined with field data and informatics tools, to detection, identification and mapping of trees from a cerradão (Savanna Forest) and a semi-deciduous seasonal forest in the state of São Paulo. Sclerolobium paniculatum and Mabea fistulifera had good results in their identification by object oriented classification in Quickbird images. The low spectral resolution of Quickbird images is somewhat compensated by the spatial information available for the species of interest defined in our object-oriented classification. The species identification for semi-deciduous forest was not satisfactory, however in this kind of vegetation it was possible the separation among deciduous and evergreen trees. Vegetation indexes from Quickbird and Aster band math were good information source for tree species potential distribution maps. The results show that, depending on the forest type and species of interest, the spatial resolution of Quickbird images is sufficient for the identification of individual tree crowns. These images have big application in biogeography studies. / Doutorado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Doutor em Ciências

Orientador: Ricardo Cordeiro / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciencias Medicas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-14T19:13:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Zangirolani_LiaThiemeOikawa_D.pdf: 1534879 bytes, checksum: 1b381837b0cecac6a7352641ffe10179 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: A estreita relação da obesidade com a ocorrência de agravos crônicos não transmissíveis e o grau epidêmico de sua expansão faz com que esta figure entre os problemas de saúde pública mais graves em todo o mundo. O objetivo do estudo foi estimar a distribuição espacial do excesso de peso, em adultos, no Distrito Sul de Campinas-SP. Trata-se de um estudo transversal de base populacional com adultos, selecionados por meio de amostra aleatória em dois estágios. Foram caracterizadas variáveis demográficas, de condições de moradia e saneamento, do estado nutricional, das práticas alimentares e do estilo de vida. Foi ajustado um modelo de Regressão Logística Ordinal, tendo como variável resposta os três níveis de estado nutricional (eutrofia=1, sobrepeso=2, obesidade=3) e como preditoras as variáveis selecionadas nos ajustes logísticos simples. Para a distribuição espacial do excesso de peso, e para analisar se o aumento do Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC) se dá de forma homogênea no território, utilizou-se ferramentas do geoprocessamento e da estatística espacial. Os resultados apontaram a idade, as condições precárias de vida, a qualidade da alimentação e o estilo de vida no lazer como aspectos associados positivamente ao aumento do IMC. Foi possível mapear a topologia do excesso de peso, em adultos, além de verificar que os aspectos associados positivamente ao aumento do IMC se distribuem de forma heterogênea no território / Abstract: The close relationship between obesity and the occurrence of chronic non-communicable diseases and the epidemic degree of its expansion makes this, amongst the public health problems, one of the most serious in the world. The main goal of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of weight excess in adults in the South District of Campinas-SP. This is a population-based cross-sectional study with adults, selected through random sampling in two stages. In this study, it was characterized demographic variables in terms of housing and sanitation, nutritional status, food habits and lifestyle. Considering the ordinal nature of scales used to Body Mass Index (BMI) it was adjusted an Ordinal Logistic Regression model, known as Proportional Odds, having as the dependent variable the three levels of nutritional status (normal weight=1, overweight=2, obesity=3) and as predictive, variables selected in simple logistics settings. For the spatial distribution of weight excess, and to examine whether the increase in BMI occurs homogeneously in the territory, we make use of Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial statistics. The results indicated the age, poor living conditions, quality of food and sedentary leisure time as aspects positively associated with increased BMI. It was possible to map the spatial distribution of weight excess in adults and to identify which aspects positively associated with increased BMI are distributed heterogeneously in the area / Doutorado / Epidemiologia / Mestre em Saude Coletiva

M.A. (Geography) / The provision of open space m cities is important in creating a pleasant atmosphere, in dividing incompatible land zones and m providing recreation facilities. Researchers on this topic agree that with rapid population growth and urbanization it is necessary that, in future, city planning should be done to enhance the quality of life of city dwellers ...

Disease mapping and spatial statistics have become an important part of modern day statistics and have increased in popularity as the methods and techniques have evolved. The application of disease mapping is not only confined to the analysis of diseases as other applications of disease mapping can be found in Econometric and financial disciplines. This thesis will consider two data sets. These are the Georgia oral cancer 2004 data set and the South African acute pericarditis 2014 data set. The Georgia data set will be used to assess the hyperprior sensitivity of the precision for the uncorrelated heterogeneity and correlated heterogeneity components in a convolution model. The correlated heterogeneity will be modelled by a conditional autoregressive prior distribution and the uncorrelated heterogeneity will be modelled with a zero mean Gaussian prior distribution. The sensitivity analysis will be performed using three models with conjugate, Jeffreys' and a fixed parameter prior for the hyperprior distribution of the precision for the uncorrelated heterogeneity component. A simulation study will be done to compare four prior distributions which will be the conjugate, Jeffreys', probability matching and divergence priors. The three models will be fitted in WinBUGS® using a Bayesian approach. The results of the three models will be in the form of disease maps, figures and tables. The results show that the hyperprior of the precision for the uncorrelated heterogeneity and correlated heterogeneity components are sensitive to changes and will result in different results depending on the specification of the hyperprior distribution of the precision for the two components in the model. The South African data set will be used to examine whether there is a difference between the proper conditional autoregressive prior and intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior for the correlated heterogeneity component in a convolution model. Two models will be fitted in WinBUGS® for this comparison. Both the hyperpriors of the precision for the uncorrelated heterogeneity and correlated heterogeneity components will be modelled using a Jeffreys' prior distribution. The results show that there is no significant difference between the results of the model with a proper conditional autoregressive prior and intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior for the South African data, although there are a few disadvantages of using a proper conditional autoregressive prior for the correlated heterogeneity which will be stated in the conclusion.

From Introduction: In geography during the 1950's there was a definite move away from the study of unique phenomena to the study of generalized phenomena or pattern (Mather and Openshaw, 1974). At the same time interrelationships between phenomena distributed in space and time became the topic of much interest among geographers, as well as members of other disciplines. The changing emphasis initiated acceptance of certain scientific principles (Cole, 1973), and mathematical techniques became the recognized and respected means through which objective analysis of pattern, structure, and interrelationships between a really distributed phenomena could be achieved (Ackerman, 1972; Burton, 1972; Gould, 1973). Geographers, as do members of other disciplines, frequently borrow mathematical techniques developed for problems encountered in the pure sciences and apply these techniques to what are felt to be analogous situations in geography.

Global climatic change as well as its consequences such as extreme weather events and sea-level rising has become a focusing issue in the contemporary world. Alpine snow cover is increasingly regarded as a good and sensitive indicator of climatic change due to the less direct interference by human. In western aridzone of China, majority of mountainous areas are covered by snow in winter seasons. This region is one of the most important seasonal snow cover regions in China and also a typical alpine snow cover region in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Being less affected by economic development and human activities in the history, the change of permanent and seasonal snow cover in this region echoes the global climatic and environmental change. In addition, snow melt water, which provides the major water supply in the region, is vital for living beings in the arid and harsh environment. It is therefore necessary to understand the snow cover change during the past decades. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of snow cover in the western aridzone of China in the past 30 years by using remote sensing technology and to analyze the relationship between the change of snow cover and global climate. The reliability of remote sensing-derived global snow data is firstly examined. Data consistency and accuracy are assessed against the ground measurements. In order to undertake a down-scale snow depth analysis with other high-resolution environmental data, a method that fuses the low-resolution passive microwave and high-resolution optical snow cover images is proposed. A linear mixture model is adopted in spectral unmixing for modifying snow depth estimates. Time series analysis method is utilized to describe the long-term trend and periodic features. The analysis is applied not only to the whole region but also to the local scale represented by a pixel so that the spatial pattern of the change can be illustrated. Using the result and climatic data, the relationship between snow cover and global/regional climatic change is established. The results make contribute to the understanding of the impacts of climatic change, at regional level, on the spatio-temporal pattern of snow cover in the western aridzone of China. Keywords: Snow and ice, alpine snow cover, remote sensing, spatio-temporal pattern, long-term trend, climatic change, western aridzone of China

Drought is a water related natural hazard. It is difficult to characterize drought because of its diffused nature and spatiotemporal variability. However, understanding the variability of drought characteristics such as severity, frequency, duration, and spatial extent is critical in drought mitigation and planning. Impact of drought on agriculture, water supply, and energy sectors has been long-recognized. The current understanding of drought and its impact is limited due to its complex characteristics and ways in which it impacts various sectors. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought: variability of drought characteristics across different spatial scales, and impact of droughts on crop yield and groundwater. Two drought indices, one integrating severity and spatial coverage, and also taking into account the type of specific crops, were investigated for county level use. The developed indices were used in studying drought at the county level, and its impact on crop yields. These indices can be used for resource allocation at the county level for drought management. Drought is reported in the United States (U.S.) for different administrative units at different spatial scales. The variation of drought characteristics across different spatial scales and scale dependence was investigated, demonstrating the importance of considering spatial scales in drought management. A methodology is proposed to quantify the uncertainty in reported values of drought indices using geostatistical tools. The uncertainty was found to increase with increasing spatial scale size. Artificial Neural Network and regression methods were used to model the impact of drought on crop yield and groundwater resources. Relationships of crop yields and groundwater levels with drought indices were obtained. Overall, this study contributes towards understanding of the spatial variation of drought characteristics across different spatial scales, and the impact of drought on crop yields and groundwater levels. / North Dakota Water Recourses Research Institute (ND WRRI) Fellowship Program / North Dakota State University Graduate School Doctoral Dissertation Award

Die Nutzung von Flächen mit Altbergbau oder mit natürlichen Hohlräumen im Unter- und Baugrund ist mit erhöhten Risiken behaftet, dass Bauwerke durch unerwünschte Deformationen des Baugrundes in Mitleidenschaft gezogen werden. Eine typische Versagensart ist die Entwicklung von Tagesbrüchen oder Erdfällen, wobei sich Massen in Richtung von Hohlräumen im Unterund und Baugrund verlagern und auflockern. Die Umlagerung von Massen setzt sich solange fort, bis sich ein statisches Gleichgewicht einstellt und eine weitere Fortpflanzung des Bruchvorganges verhindert oder stark reduziert. Die Ermittlung der Versagenswahrscheinlichkeit an einem gegebenen Standort wird nach dem Konzept der geometrischen Wahrscheinlichkeit vorgeschlagen. Die Größe entstehender Tagesbrüche wird dabei als eine Zufallsvariable betrachtet. Die berechneten Versagenswahrscheinlichkeiten können als Grundlage der Risikobewertung von zu schützenden Objekten herangezogen werden. / The use of sites over old mining regions or with natural openings in the ground includes an elevated technical risk, as constructions can be constrained due to unplanned deformations of the subsoil. Typical failure modes include pothole subsidence or earthfalls, when failing soil masses are displaced and loosened stepwise toward a collapsing opening in the ground. The displacement process continues until a stable static equilibrium is reached and a further propagation of displacements is prevented. The determination of the failure probability on a given site due to pothole subsidence is recommended based on the concept of geometric probabilities, considering the subsidence volume as a probabilistic quantity. The failure probabilities can be used for a risk analysis of protected objects on sites with expected pothole subsidence.