This dissertation studies the impact of multiple pre-specified sources of risk in the return of three non-overlapping groups of countries, through an Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model. The groups are composed of emerging and developed markets. Emerging markets have become important players in the world economy, especially as capital receptors, but they were not included in the majority of previous related works. Two strategies are used to choose two set of risk factors. The first one is to use macroeconomic variables, as prescribed by most of the literature, such as world excess return, exchange rates, variation in the spread between Eurodollar deposit tax and U.S. Treasury bill (TED spread) and change in the oil price. The second strategy is to extract factors by using a principal component analysis, designated as statistical factors. The first important result is a great resemblance between the first statistical factor and the world excess return. We estimate the APT model using two statistical methodologies: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ITNLSUR) by McElroy and Burmeister (1988) and the Generalized Method Moments (GMM) by Hansen (1982). The results from both methods are very similar. With macroeconomic variables, only the world excess of return is priced in the three groups with a premium varying from 4.4% to 6.3% per year and, in the model with statistical variables, only the first statistical factor is priced in all groups with a premium varying from 6.2% to 8.5% per year. / Essa dissertação estuda o impacto de múltiplas fontes de riscos pré-especificados nos retornos de três grupos de países não sobrepostos, através de um modelo de Teoria de Precificação por Arbitragem (APT). Os grupos são compostos por mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos. Mercados emergentes tornaram-se importantes na economia mundial, especialmente como receptores de capital, mas não foram inclusos na maioria dos trabalhos correlatos anteriores. Duas estratégias foram adotadas para a escolha de dois conjuntos de fatores de risco. A primeira foi utilizar variáveis macroeconômicas, descritas na maior parte da literatura, como e excesso de retorno da carteira mundial, taxas de câmbio, variação da diferença entre a taxa de depósito em Eurodólar e a U.S. Treasury Bill (TED Spread) e mudanças no preço do petróleo. A segunda estratégia foi extrair fatores de risco através de uma análise de componentes principais, denominados fatores estatísticos. O primeiro resultado importante é a grande semelhança entre o primeiro fator estatístico e o retorno da carteira mundial. Nós estimamos o modelo APT usando duas metodologias estatísticas: Regressões Aparentemente não Correlacionadas Iteradas (ITNLSUR) de McElroy e Burmeister (1988) e o Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM) de Hansen (1982). Os resultados de ambas as metodologias são muito similares. Utilizando variáveis macroeconômicas, apenas o excesso de retorno da carteira mundial é precificado nos três grupos com prêmios variando de 4,4% a 6.3% ao ano e, no modelo com variáveis estatísticas, apenas o primeiro fator estatístico é precificado em todos os grupos com prêmios que variam entre 6,2% a 8,5% ao ano.

Zugl.: Köln, University, Diss., 2002.

Univ., Diss.--Groningen, 2008. / Zsfassung in niederl. Sprache.

Zugl.: Passau, Universiẗat, Diss., 2009.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2007.

This dissertation studies the impact of multiple pre-specified sources of risk in the return of three non-overlapping groups of countries, through an Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model. The groups are composed of emerging and developed markets. Emerging markets have become important players in the world economy, especially as capital receptors, but they were not included in the majority of previous related works. Two strategies are used to choose two set of risk factors. The first one is to use macroeconomic variables, as prescribed by most of the literature, such as world excess return, exchange rates, variation in the spread between Eurodollar deposit tax and U.S. Treasury bill (TED spread) and change in the oil price. The second strategy is to extract factors by using a principal component analysis, designated as statistical factors. The first important result is a great resemblance between the first statistical factor and the world excess return. We estimate the APT model using two statistical methodologies: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ITNLSUR) by McElroy and Burmeister (1988) and the Generalized Method Moments (GMM) by Hansen (1982). The results from both methods are very similar. With macroeconomic variables, only the world excess of return is priced in the three groups with a premium varying from 4.4% to 6.3% per year and, in the model with statistical variables, only the first statistical factor is priced in all groups with a premium varying from 6.2% to 8.5% per year. / Essa dissertação estuda o impacto de múltiplas fontes de riscos pré-especificados nos retornos de três grupos de países não sobrepostos, através de um modelo de Teoria de Precificação por Arbitragem (APT). Os grupos são compostos por mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos. Mercados emergentes tornaram-se importantes na economia mundial, especialmente como receptores de capital, mas não foram inclusos na maioria dos trabalhos correlatos anteriores. Duas estratégias foram adotadas para a escolha de dois conjuntos de fatores de risco. A primeira foi utilizar variáveis macroeconômicas, descritas na maior parte da literatura, como e excesso de retorno da carteira mundial, taxas de câmbio, variação da diferença entre a taxa de depósito em Eurodólar e a U.S. Treasury Bill (TED Spread) e mudanças no preço do petróleo. A segunda estratégia foi extrair fatores de risco através de uma análise de componentes principais, denominados fatores estatísticos. O primeiro resultado importante é a grande semelhança entre o primeiro fator estatístico e o retorno da carteira mundial. Nós estimamos o modelo APT usando duas metodologias estatísticas: Regressões Aparentemente não Correlacionadas Iteradas (ITNLSUR) de McElroy e Burmeister (1988) e o Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM) de Hansen (1982). Os resultados de ambas as metodologias são muito similares. Utilizando variáveis macroeconômicas, apenas o excesso de retorno da carteira mundial é precificado nos três grupos com prêmios variando de 4,4% a 6.3% ao ano e, no modelo com variáveis estatísticas, apenas o primeiro fator estatístico é precificado em todos os grupos com prêmios que variam entre 6,2% a 8,5% ao ano.

Med hjälp av årlig prisstatistik avseende försäljningar av skogsfastigheter (1995-2020) bedömer studien skogliga investeringars marknadsrisk samt estimerar dess diskonteringsränta. Analysen sker inom de teoretiska ramverken Capital Asset Pricing Theory (CAPM) samt Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Utöver korrelation med marknaden analyseras ett antal riskfaktorer så som inflation, förändringar i bostadspriser, BNP samt förändringar i virkespriser. CAPM beräknas för olika löptider där den riskfria räntan matchas mot investeringens tidshorisont. Resultatet ligger i linje med tidigare forskning och visar att skogliga investeringar har en låg marknadsrisk och troligen kan ge ett skydd mot inflation. Val av korrekt löptid för den riskfria räntan har betydande effekt på den estimerade diskonteringsräntan.

Denna uppsats är skriven inom området finansiering och behandlar fenomenet uppköp och företagsförvärv inom läkemedelsbranschen. I uppsatsen undersöker man läkemedelsbranschen och några nyckelaffärer utförda under de senaste fem åren. Syftet är att se om hypotesen om att det inte sker någon onormal överavkastning efter ett företagsförvärv eller sammanslagning till det köpande företaget gäller inom industrin. Modellen som används är ”the Arbitrage Pricing Model”, innehållande variablerna S&P 500, ^DRG, USA’s inflation och volymen av omsatta aktier på New York-börsen. Denna används för att beräkna en förväntad avkastning på aktien 48 månader efter affären. Ytterligare så används AMEX läkemedelsindex (^DRG) och Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) som måttstock för att jämföra utvecklingen av aktien under 48 månader efter affären. Hypotesen håller i tre av sex fall när indexen ^DRG och S&P 500 används som måttstock och i samtliga fall när den beräknade avkastningen används som måttstock. De beräknade estimaten visade sig vara aningen för optimistiska givet tidpunkten för affären. Marknaden hade vuxit mycket starkt under en lång tid och var på toppen just innan den föll kraftigt i början av år 2000. Inget av företagen nådde upp till de beräknade värdena. Inte heller lyckades de återhämta sig från det kraftiga fallet I marknaden till deras ursprungliga aktievärden. / This thesis is written within the field of finance and covers the Merger & Acquisition (M&A) phenomenon within the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose with this thesis is to examine the pharmaceutical industry and, with some key acquisitions done over the last five years, see if our hypothesis about no abnormal returns after an M&A to the buying firm, holds within the industry. The model used is the Arbitrage pricing model, incorporating the variables; S&P 500, ^DRG, US inflation and stock volume traded on NYSE, to calculate expected returns for a period of 48 months after the M&A’s. Furthermore we use AMEX pharmaceutical index (^DRG) and Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) as our base for measuring post-M&A performance 48 months after the M&A’s. The hypothesis holds three out of six times when using the indices ^DRG and S&P 500 as a benchmark and all of the times when using the calculated expected returns as benchmark. The calculated estimates turned out to be a bit too optimistic given the time of the M&A’s where the market had grown substantially over a long period and was at its peak just before it plummeted in the early 2000’s. Neither of the companies reached their estimated returns, nor did they manage to recover from the downfall to their initial stock value at the time of the merger.

<p>Denna uppsats är skriven inom området finansiering och behandlar fenomenet uppköp och företagsförvärv inom läkemedelsbranschen. I uppsatsen undersöker man läkemedelsbranschen och några nyckelaffärer utförda under de senaste fem åren. Syftet är att se om hypotesen om att det inte sker någon onormal överavkastning efter ett företagsförvärv eller sammanslagning till det köpande företaget gäller inom industrin.</p><p>Modellen som används är ”the Arbitrage Pricing Model”, innehållande variablerna S&P 500, ^DRG, USA’s inflation och volymen av omsatta aktier på New York-börsen. Denna används för att beräkna en förväntad avkastning på aktien 48 månader efter affären. Ytterligare så används AMEX läkemedelsindex (^DRG) och Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) som måttstock för att jämföra utvecklingen av aktien under 48 månader efter affären.</p><p>Hypotesen håller i tre av sex fall när indexen ^DRG och S&P 500 används som måttstock och i samtliga fall när den beräknade avkastningen används som måttstock.</p><p>De beräknade estimaten visade sig vara aningen för optimistiska givet tidpunkten för affären. Marknaden hade vuxit mycket starkt under en lång tid och var på toppen just innan den föll kraftigt i början av år 2000. Inget av företagen nådde upp till de beräknade värdena. Inte heller lyckades de återhämta sig från det kraftiga fallet I marknaden till deras ursprungliga aktievärden.</p> / <p>This thesis is written within the field of finance and covers the Merger & Acquisition (M&A) phenomenon within the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose with this thesis is to examine the pharmaceutical industry and, with some key acquisitions done over the last five years, see if our hypothesis about no abnormal returns after an M&A to the buying firm, holds within the industry.</p><p>The model used is the Arbitrage pricing model, incorporating the variables; S&P 500, ^DRG, US inflation and stock volume traded on NYSE, to calculate expected returns for a period of 48 months after the M&A’s. Furthermore we use AMEX pharmaceutical index (^DRG) and Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) as our base for measuring post-M&A performance 48 months after the M&A’s.</p><p>The hypothesis holds three out of six times when using the indices ^DRG and S&P 500 as a benchmark and all of the times when using the calculated expected returns as benchmark.</p><p>The calculated estimates turned out to be a bit too optimistic given the time of the M&A’s where the market had grown substantially over a long period and was at its peak just before it plummeted in the early 2000’s. Neither of the companies reached their estimated returns, nor did they manage to recover from the downfall to their initial stock value at the time of the merger.</p>

This thesis is an investigation into the relationship that exists between macroeconomic variables and the pricing of common stock under trending market conditions. By introducing a dichotomous independent variable as a way of distinguishing between periods of rising and falling thereby attaching an additional expected premium to each of five accepted sources of macroeconomic risk for participation in ‘Bear’ markets. 228 observations of the fourteen industry sub-groupings of former TSE 300 were examined separately. The ultimate results were obtained using the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as the model to obtain factor exposures. The results show that there is no significant relationship between market trend and the pricing of common stock when the APT is applied. The final recommendation is that more research is needed.