The Arctic is except being one of the Worlds’ most remote regions also experiencing the heavy impacts of climate change. This means an opportunity for the Arctic nations – access to a brand new ocean. The melting region is from a military perspective of strategic importance, as well as it provides new shipping routes and holds up to 30% of the worlds undiscovered natural resources being worth billions of dollars. One nation having taken a keen notice to this is Russia, it has claimed land in the Arctic several times and in 2007 it planted its flag on the seabed of the North pole declaring the Arctic belongs to them. This lays out the purpose of this report – to investigate how the Russian use of soft and hard power in the Arctic has changed during the years of 2007 to 2017. In order to examine this, Kristensen and Sakstrup at the Centre for Military Studies at the University of Copenhage along with several others, suggest analysing Russias military and diplomatic behaviour. The results finds that the Russian use of soft power in terms of diplomacy and cooperation with the other arctic states was mainly present, and increased in the years 2007 to 2014 prior to the Ukraine crisis, while again being present after a long haul in 2017. The use of hard power in terms of military might and presence has during the same period of time steadily increased.

There has been a marked increase in melt season length over the past two decades on glaciers and ice caps within Canada’s Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI). Prior to the year ~2000 land ice was in a state of slightly negative mass balance (-11 +/- 11.5 Gt yr⁻¹ over 1958-1995), but recent GRACE measurements suggest that mass losses averaged -33 +/- 5 Gt yr⁻¹ between 2003-2015. These losses have primarily been attributed to meltwater runoff, making the QEI one of the largest recent contributors to sea level rise outside of the ice sheets. Despite these losses, there is a lack of information concerning how a warming climate is affecting small (<1 km²) ice bodies, which are considered sensitive indicators of change due to their short response time. In this study, historical and contemporary aerial photographs, high resolution optical satellite imagery, and ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys are used to determine area, thickness, mass and volume changes of Adams Icefield within Expedition Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, over the past seven decades (1948/59-2019). Area changes are determined from a comparison of air photos acquired in 1948/59 with satellite images acquired since 1979. Contemporary (2001, 2012, 2019) digital elevation models (DEMs) were either collected or created from stereo satellite images, and via aerial photo surveys using Structure from Motion photogrammetry. DEM of Difference maps calculated from these DEMs provide volume and mass changes. Results illustrate a steady reduction in glacier area, thickness, and volume prior to the year ~2000, followed by a rapid increase in losses over the past two decades. As a result, Adams Icefield is now rapidly declining and is likely to completely disappear early in the twenty-second century.

The view of the world is changing and with it the people’s conception of the magnitude of the world. The reason for this is tourism, never has it been so easy to travel and discover new places. The Arctic, that was once considered a remote and distant place is not anymore. Today the view of the Arctic is seen as a cultural landscape with different settings and qualities throughout the entire region. Sweden is part of the Arctic and the northern part of the country displays its arctic cachet with elements such as the richness of snow and the northern lights. This study focuses on Norrbotten, located in the northern part of Sweden and aims to examine the significance arctic tourism has for the companies that are in an arctic location. The study also intends to present a deeper understanding about arctic tourism and to further investigate the companies working with arctic tourism in Norrbotten. The results showed that the perception of arctic tourism coincides with the general opinion about the subject. Elements such as cold, ice, nature were mentioned to be closely associated to the Swedish Arctic. And the experiences that are linked to these factors were distinguished as arctic tourism products. The informants gave different opinions about what is in the future for arctic tourism. The intention for this study is hopefully to illustrate a better understanding for the complex phenomenon of arctic tourism and in what ways Norrbotten is an essential part of the Arctic.

Coastal oceans play an important role in the carbon cycle and are hotspots of ocean primary production and ocean acidification. These coastal regions are strongly influenced by rives, especially in the Arctic. Despite the importance of the riverine delivery of carbon and nutrients, their effect on the Arctic Ocean is still poorly understood due to hostile conditions and the consequently low number of observations. This thesis aims at improving our understanding of the influence of Arctic riverine delivery of carbon and nutrients by using ocean biogeochemical models.The first part of the thesis evaluated the model skills of the ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES in the Arctic Ocean. By analyzing model results at different horizontal resolutions, the importance of lateral influx from the adjacent oceans for anthropogenic carbon cycle in the Arctic Ocean wasdemonstrated. These results were then used to adjust a previously published data-based estimate of anthropogenic carbon storage in the Arctic Ocean and the corresponding ocean acidification.In the second part, a pan-Arctic observation-based dataset of riverine carbon and nutrient fluxes was created. This dataset was then used to force the ocean biogeochemical model and the river fluxes were quantified. River fluxes have been shown to sustain up to 24% of Arctic Ocean primary production, to reduce the air-sea CO2 uptake by 20%, and to reduce surface ocean acidification seasonally. Eventually, idealized simulations were made to quantify the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean biogeochemistry to future changes in riverine delivery of carbon and nutrients. Sensitivities are of small magnitude on a pan-Arctic scale, importance in the coastal areas, and the dominant factor close to river mouths. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Environmental change in the Arctic proceeds at an unprecedented rate. The Pliocene epoch (5-2.65 million years ago) represents an analog for future climate conditions, with pCO2 and continental configurations similar to present. Yet conditions in the Pliocene Arctic are poorly characterized because of sparse sampling. The records that do exist indicate periods of extreme warmth, as well as the first expansion of large ice-sheets in the Northern Hemisphere, took place from the end of the Pliocene into the early Pleistocene. Understanding these deposits and their implications for our future requires developing a sense of climatic evolution across the Plio-Pleistocene transition and especially during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (iNHG) ~2.7 million years ago. Here we reconstruct environmental change in the Arctic using a suite of organic geochemical proxies in a sedimentary archive recovered from Lake El'gygytgyn, Arctic Northeast Russia. We use the distribution of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD) of plant leaf-waxes (n-alkanes) to reconstruct relative temperature change across the interval spanning 2.8 to 2.4 million years ago. Our work demonstrates that, following the first major glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere, it took multiple glacial cycles for the Arctic to become synchronized with the climatic changes recorded in the deep ocean. This work has implications for understanding the role of sea-level, sea-ice, vegetation and carbon-cycle feedbacks in a changing Arctic.

The characteristic glacial and interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene underwent a climatic transition at ~430 ka known as the Mid- Brunhes Event (MBE). Many studies, particularly from the Southern Hemisphere have noted that after this transition, the amplitude of the climatic cycles increased. Despite the indication of an MBE signal in many globally distributed paleoclimate records, the geographic extent of the climatic transition remains unknown and its presence in northern hemisphere and terrestrial records is debated. Lake El’gygytgyn is located in the far- east Russian Arctic and provides the longest, most continuous record of Arctic climate (3.6 Ma). This study examines organic biomarkers in the Lake El’gygytgyn sediment core to determine if the MBE is expressed in the terrestrial Arctic. The paleoclimate reconstruction spans the interval of 340- 730 ka at a resolution of ~3 ka. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are utilized to reconstruct temperature and plant leaf wax n-alkanes are used to examine vegetation changes. Statistical analysis of this, and other existing proxy data, indicates that a signal of the MBE is preserved in the Lake El’gygytgyn sediment record. BrGDGT temperature reconstructions suggest the terrestrial Arctic experienced both the warmest interglacials and coldest glacial periods after the MBE climatic transition. Arid glacial intervals and wetter interglacials are recorded by changes in the average chain length of n- alkanes, with wetter interglacials predominating after the MBE.

Rising temperature and precipitation are driving widespread changes in the area of surface water across the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Previous work suggests that broad-scale increases in surface water area are occurring in the zone of continuous permafrost, while decreases are occurring the zone of discontinuous permafrost. However, there are still uncertainties surrounding regional change and fine-scale terrain factors that may mediate the effects of temperature and precipitation. In my MSc research I examine terrain and climatic drivers of change in the area of lakes and ponds across the western Canadian Arctic and Sub-Arctic. In the first part of my thesis I use the Landsat satellite image archive to map change in lake area within the Lower Mackenzie Plain, NWT. I found that overall lake area has largely decreased since 1985, due to the drainage of large lakes. I also found that lakes located in fire scars were more likely to show persistent decreases in area, likely due to interactions with surrounding permafrost conditions. In the second part of my thesis, I used the Global Surface Water dataset developed by the GLAD research group to model changes in total permanent water across the Northwest Territories and the Yukon. I used a Random Forest model to analyze the effects of terrain and climate variables on the direction of change in permanent water. My observations show that surface water area has generally increased, and that the response of surface water to climate change largely depends on regional geology. Increases in permanent water were more likely to occur in wetter regions underlain by bedrock or fine-colluvium while decreases were more likely to occur in warmer regions and areas underlain till blanket. I also used methods developed in the first part of my thesis to compare regional changes in surface water across six distinct study areas. I observed increases in surface water across five of the six study areas and consistent decreases in lake area associated with wildfire. This research shows that changes in surface water are complex and depend on interactions between climate variables and fine-scale terrain factors. My research also demonstrates the importance of wildfire in driving permafrost and lake dynamics. / Graduate

With parallel increases in both climate change effects and heightening tension between state actors within the Arctic Region, a detrimental outcome is possible if not properly understood. Handling such intricate relationship between climate change, its impacts on human society and conflicts, the Environmental Conflict lens offers a useful perspective that identifies structural conditions and behavioural mechanisms created by climate change, as drivers of conflict. However, a lack within the theoretical understanding of knowing if theorised tenants are present within the perception of actors experiencing empirical reality, does present a problem. Therefore, this research wished to answer how state actors within the Arctic Region describe the theorised structural conditions and behavioural mechanism argued to drive conflict from an Environmental Conflict lens. The study conducted a Qualitative Content Analysis to gain this understanding, focusing on the state actors respective Artic Policy/Strategy, which represented their respective perception. The research was able to identify several instances of the theoretical concepts within each case and to gain an understanding of the state actors’ description derived from the data analysis. The insights gained by the study, call for further theoretical development of Environmental Conflict lens and more proactive research engagements with the Arctic Region.

Leonardo Burda Thesis Abstract Warming waters in the High North return the Arctic Circle to the forefront of the world's geopolitical chessboard. Reports of ice-free waters in the Northwest Passage, coupled with a resurgence in interest from arctic and near arctic nations displays the returning geostrategic, economic and political value of firm Arctic policy. This thesis will articulate that the Arctic Policy of Russia, China and the US shows scalable potentiality into the nation's general Foreign Policy model. Through the analysis of the previously stated nation's policies, this study aims to determine how Arctic nations can aptly respond to changes in international arctic and foreign policy. Building on published papers, studies and geostrategic conclusions, it asks: What arctic policy decisions have Russia, China and The USA made within the last decade? To what extent can these nation's arctic policies be exported to their general foreign policy? In this context, Arctic Policy and Foreign Policy decisions are determined by actions taken internationally and within the Arctic during a fixed period. The conclusion of this study articulates the general importance of keeping a close eye to nation's actions within and towards the Arctic as their operations within the Arctic Community often do reflect their...

Thesis (M.A.)--Boston University / Introduction The purpose of the thesis is; to develop and explain the location and extent of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea, and to describe methods in use and proposed by the science of ice forecasting to aid ship movements in the area. Much of the data in the thesis camas from unpublished or widely scattered papers, and the thesis is an attempt to assimilate such data into cohesive form. Chapter I. The Newly Acquired Importance of the Beaufort Sea Region and the Status of Ice Forecasting. Prior to World War II the area of the Beaufort Sea was little known or exploited. A few explorers occasionally had joined the native eskimos as inhabitants of the area. After the war, a program of oil exploration was undertaken on the southern shores of the Sea by the U.S. Navy. Discovery of oil and the newly feasible means of making trans-polar flights across the Arctic waters suddenly catipulated the area into a position of strategic importance to our national defense. Research programs devoted to gathering data on how to live in such a hostile climate bacame a natural outgrowth of this new importance. With the construction and resupply of the DEW line a vital necessity, methods of coping with sea ice had to be developed. In this respect, the Russians were far advanced over the Western Allies, having devoted much time and effort on the problem since the 1920's. Nonetheless, U.S. and Canadian scientists, under an accelerating research program, are well on the way to equality in the fields surrounding sea ice research. [TRUNCATED]