Tourism is currently the third largest industry within South Africa. Many African countries, including South Africa, have the potential to achieve increased economic growth and development with the aid of the tourism sector. As tourism is a great earner of foreign exchange and also creates employment opportunities, especially low–skilled employment, it is identified as a sector that can aid developing countries to increase economic growth and development. Accurate forecasting of tourism demand is important due to the perishable nature of tourism products and services. Little research on forecasting tourism demand in South Africa can be found. The aim of this study is to forecast tourism demand (international tourist arrivals) to South Africa by making use of different causal models and to compare the forecasting accuracy of the causal models used. Accurate forecasts of tourism demand may assist policy–makers and business concerns with decisions regarding future investment and employment. An overview of South African tourism trends indicates that although domestic arrivals surpass foreign arrivals in terms of volume, foreign arrivals spend more in South Africa than domestic tourists. It was also established that tourist arrivals from Africa (including the Middle East), form the largest market of international tourist arrivals to South Africa. Africa is, however, not included in the empirical analysis mainly due to data limitations. All the other markets namely Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America, South America and the United Kingdom are included as origin markets for the empirical analysis and this study therefore focuses on intercontinental tourism demand for South Africa. A review of the literature identified several determinants of tourist arrivals, including income, relative prices, transport cost, climate, supply–side factors, health risks, political stability as well as terrorism and crime. Most researchers used tourist arrivals/departures or tourist spending/receipts as dependent variables in empirical tourism demand studies. The first approach used to forecast tourism demand is a single equation approach, more specifically an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. This relationship between the explanatory variables and the dependent variable was then used to ex post forecast tourism demand for South Africa from the six markets identified earlier. Secondly, a system of equation approach, more specifically a Vector Autoregressive Model and Vector Error Correction Model were estimated for each of the identified six markets. An impulse response analysis was undertaken to determine the effect of shocks in the explanatory variables on tourism demand using the Vector Error Correction Model. It was established that it takes on average three years for the effect on tourism demand to disappear. A variance decomposition analysis was also done using the Vector Error Correction Model to determine how each variable affects the percentage forecast variance of a certain variable. It was found that income plays an important role in explaining the percentage forecast variance of almost every variable. The Vector Autoregressive Model was used to estimate the short–run relationship between the variables and to ex post forecast tourism demand to South Africa from the six identified markets. The results showed that enhanced marketing can be done in origin markets with a growing GDP in order to attract more arrivals from those areas due to the high elasticity of the real GDP per capita in the long run and its positive impact on tourist arrivals. It is mainly up to the origin countries to increase their income per capita. Focussing on infrastructure development and maintenance could contribute to an increase in future tourist arrivals. It is evident that arrivals from Europe might have a negative relationship with the number of hotel rooms available since tourists from this region might prefer accommodation with a safari atmosphere such as bush lodges. Investment in such accommodation facilities and the marketing of such facilities to Europeans may contribute to an increase in arrivals from Europe. The real exchange rate also plays a role in the price competitiveness of the destination country. Therefore, in order for South Africa to be more price competitive, inflation rate control can be a way to increase price competitiveness rather than to have a fixed exchange rate. Forecasting accuracy was tested by estimating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Root Mean Square Error and Theil’s U of each model. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was estimated for each origin market as a benchmark model to determine forecasting accuracy against this univariate time series approach. The results showed that the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model achieved more accurate predictions whereas the Vector Autoregressive model forecasts were more accurate than the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model forecasts. Policy–makers can use both the SARIMA and VAR model, which may generate more accurate forecast results in order to provide better policy recommendations. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

Thesis (MScEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In terms of its contribution to the agricultural economic activity in Namibia, the small stock industry is the most important sector, second only to the beef industry. This sector makes a significant contribution to the agricultural business in Namibia due to the sector’s exports, its provision of employment, use of natural resources, contribution to GDP and to consumer spending as well as food security. Agricultural activities in Namibia contributed 5.5 percent to Namibia’s GDP, while 70 percent of the population relies on agriculture for employment and day-to-day living. Livestock farming in Namibia is free ranging on natural pastures and therefore produces high-quality meat that is in high demand in both the national and international markets. Small stock production in Namibia is unstable due to the high variability of weather patterns, changes in economic and social environments, unpredictable droughts as well as political and structural changes. Due to the decline in mutton production over the last years, research in the supply economics of the mutton industry in Namibia is important. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the various price and non-price factors contributing to the supply dynamics within the mutton industry in Namibia. Two hypotheses are tested with the aid of econometric modelling techniques on monthly time series data. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to co-integration was used to determine the long-run and short-run supply response elasticities towards economic and climatology factors. Results showed a significant long-run relationship between the average Namibian mutton producer price and mutton supply. Results revealed that a one percent increase in the mutton producer price leads to a 1.97 percent increase in mutton supply. Beef producer price, a substitute product to mutton, showed a significant negative long-run effect towards mutton production whereas rainfall showed a meaningful positive long-run contribution to mutton supply. These supply shifters towards mutton production also showed significant short-run elasticities. Results further revealed that the system takes nearly two months to recover to the long-run supply equilibrium, should any disturbances occur within the supply system. The study showed that price-related and climatological factors play a major role in the Namibian mutton production industry. Industry stakeholders and policy makers should therefore incorporate these significant relationships between supply shifters and production output into future decisions and marketing policies to secure a healthy, growing and sustainable mutton industry in Namibia. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In terme van bydrae tot die landboubedryf in Namibië is die kleinveebedryf die tweede belangrikste sektor, net kleiner as die land se grootveebedryf. Die sektor maak ‘n betekenisvolle bydrae tot die landboubedryf in Namibië deur middel van werkskepping, die gebruik van natuurlike hulpbronne, bydrae tot Bruto Binnelandse Produk, uitvoere, verbruikersbesteding sowel as voedselsekerheid. Landbou-aktiwiteite dra by tot 5,5 persent van die Bruto Binnelandse Produk van ‘n land waar meer as 70 persent van die bevolking afhanklik is van landbou om ‘n bestaan te kan maak. Veeboerdery in Namibië geskied ekstensief op natuurlike veld wat lei tot die produksie van ‘n hoë kwaliteit produk, wat hoog in aanvraag is in plaaslike en internasionale markte. Kleinvee produksie in Namibië is onstabiel as gevolg van fluktuasies in weerpatrone, veranderings in ekonomiese en sosiale omgewings, onvoorspelbare droogtes asook politieke- en struktuurveranderinge. As gevolg van die huidige afname in skaapvleis produksie is navorsing in die aanbodkantekonomie van die skaapvleisbedryf belangrik in Namibië. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die verwantskap te ondersoek tussen verskeie prys en nie-prys faktore wat bydra tot die aanboddinamika van die skaapvleisbedryf. Twee hipoteses word getoets met behulp van ekonometriese modelleringstegnieke op maandelikse tydreeksdata. ‘n Outoregressiewe verspreide sloeringbenadering tot ko-integrasie is gebruik om die langtermyn en korttermyn elastisiteite tussen ekonomiese en klimaatsfaktore vir die aanbod van skaapvleis te bepaal. Resultate dui op ‘n betekenisvolle langtermyn verwantskap tussen die gemiddelde Namibiese produsente prys en skaapvleis produksie. Resultate wys daarop dat ‘n een persent styging in skaapvleis produsente prys ‘n 1,97 persent styging in skaapvleis aanbod het. Die beesvleis produsente prys, ‘n substituut vir skaapvleis, het ‘n beduidende negatiewe effek getoon oor die langtermyn op skaapvleis produksie. Reënval het ‘n beduidende positiewe bydrae getoon ten opsigte van skaapvleis aanbod. Hierdie aanbodsfaktore het betekenisvolle korttermyn elastisiteite getoon. Resultate het ook getoon dat die stelsel twee maande neem om te herstel tot die langtermyn aanbodsewewig, sou daar enige drastiese veranderings in die stelsel plaasvind. Die studie het getoon dat prysverwante en klimaatsfaktore ‘n uiters prominente rol speel met betrekking tot skaapvleisproduksie in Namibië. Bedryfsaandeelhouers en politieke leiers sal hierdie betekenisvolle verwantskappe tussen produksie faktore en aanbod uitset in ag moet neem in toekomstige beplanning en bemarkingsbeleid om ‘n gesonde, groeiende en volhoubare skaapvleisbedryf in Namibië te verseker.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020 / The remarkable increase in FDI flows to developing countries over the last decade has focused attention on whether this source of financing enhances overall development and growth in the economy. To attain foreign direct investment and sustainable economic growth of a country, balanced budget is not only important but necessary. The aim of the study was to examine the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and budget deficit in a panel of five Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries (Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Namibia, and Zambia). The study employed the Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model in examining the relationship between budget deficit and FDI. The panel unit root tests results showed different orders of integration (at levels and first-order) giving way to the use of PARDL. Co-integration test results confirmed a long-run relationship in the budget deficit FDI series. In the long run, there is a significant negative relationship between budget deficit and FDI. The speed of adjustment is 36%, implying that the system would converge faster to equilibrium. Furthermore, Granger causality test results indicated a bi-directional causal link on the interest rate – inflation and interest rate – FDI models. However, there is a unidirectional causality running from budget deficit to FDI; interest rate to the budget deficit and FDI to inflation. It is recommended that government should attract more foreign direct investment so as to minimise budget deficit and this could speed up the development of SADC countries. Key Terms: Foreign direct investment, budget deficit, Autoregressive-Distributed Lag, panel data, Granger causality.

(Ph. D. (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / The issues regarding the determinants of agricultural production and food supply are currently of great interest in developing countries. This, in turn, has led to the undertaking of this study focusing on the effectiveness of incentives that can be offered within the agricultural sector to boost production. The study aims to model the supply response of key agricultural commodities to price incentives, price risk and non-price incentives. Special focus is given to four major grain crops, namely; maize, wheat, sorghum and barley, which are of strategic interest to South Africa. The emphasis of the study is on two significant aspects of agricultural supply response: First, an attempt is made to determine the level of price risk among the selected grain crops using two distinct price risk measures. Second, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) approach to cointegration is used to estimate the responsiveness of grain producers to price risk, price incentives and non-price incentives. Annual historical time series data of 49 observations for the period 1970 to 2018 is used in the analysis. Data is tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Dickey-Fuller Generalised Least Square (DF-GLS) detrending test. The empirical results reveal that grain supply in South Africa is reasonably responsive to price incentives. However, the degree of responsiveness is low and varies among different crops. Depending on the crop, the results show that own price supply elasticities range from about 0.24 to 0.75. Supply elasticities for nonprice factors are much higher, indicating that non-price incentives (i.e. rainfall, fertiliser, technology) are better production drivers than price incentives in South Africa. Thus, instead of regarding price mechanisms as being the only tools to promote agricultural production, it is concluded that further expansion of irrigation facilities and encouraging the adoption of drought-resistant varieties will stimulate grain production. The results underscore the relevance of price risk in determining production output and show that greater price risk leads to reduced production levels, particularly for maize and barley. In light of such evidence, any policy initiatives undertaken to stabilise the grain industry should look into proposing packages (i.e., forward contracts, futures contracts, contract farming) that reduce the negative impacts of price volatility in grain commodity markets

Government fiscal and monetary policy has long been based on the theory that was neither proven nor refuted since its origination. The original form of the Phillips curve has undergone significant modifications but its relevance remains questionable. This thesis examines the correlation between inflation and unemployment observed in the Czech Republic and Germany over the last twenty years. The validity of the theory is tested by advanced methods of time series analysis in the R environment. All the variables are gradually tested which results in the assessment of the correlation between the time series. The outcome of the testing is presented for both countries and a comparison at international level is drawn. Is is discovered that both of the countries have dependencies in their data. Czech republic has significant dependency in both ways, for Germany is the dependency significantly weaker and only in one way.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation constructs three empirical essays. The first essay illustrates the causality on the relationship between output (GDP) growth and exports. By using the Modified Wald (MWald) test we observe unidirectional causality from exports to GDP. More specifically, for the robustness we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and the Generalized Impulse Response Function Analysis (GIRA). The VECM and the GIRA yield bidirectional causality between exports and GDP, which weakly supports the unidirectional result of the to MWald test. Meanwhile, we confirm that there is structure break by using the structural break test. These results are plausible and consistent with the expectations of our study for the Export Led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH). However, compared with previous studies on the ELGH for Korea, our results are different. Other studies show a bidirectional causality relationship but this study only has unidirectional causality. These differences may be caused from different observation data, various variables, and use of different econometric methodologies. Also, model selection and omitting variables can also significantly change the results of causality testing. The second essay investigates a degree of competition between Korea's and China's exports in the U.S. market by using the substitute elasticity on a simple demand model. The market share of Korean exports has been decreasing while that of China's has been increasing. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that Korea has a dominant market share of only goods group code 27 in commodity groups over that of China, otherwise having China's dominant market shares over those of Korea for other export sections by using historical trade data. Second, most estimates of substitute elasticity between both countries' exports in the U.S. market are small (inelastic). However, 61 (apparel articles and accessories, knit or crochet), 62 (apparel articles and accessories, not knit etc) and 85 (electric machinery etc, sound equipments, TV equipment, parts) commodity groups' substitute elasticities are large (elastic) and are competitive in the U.S. market compared with those of China. A small value of the elasticity of substitution may be due to an identification problem for a simple standard model as well as measurement errors in prices as a unit value in this study. So, in order to avoid problems such as these, we may need to use appropriate instrumental or proxy variables in the simple standard model, which highly correlate with the independent (unit price) variables and are uncorrelated with measurement error terms. In practice, it is not easy to find good instrumental variables. The final essay evaluates the roles of price and income as important factors that affect Korea's exports by using the most recent monthly data. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach we find the long-run relationship of variables and estimate the long-run price and income elasticities. However, the estimates of these long-run elasticities are statistically insignificant. This may be due to some misspecifications or measurement errors in our model. Meanwhile, due to the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, we construct the Error Correction Model (ECM) in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the elasticities. Specifically, we add a dummy variable into our export demand model to achieve more efficient estimations since the dummy variable reflects a shock in Korea's export; Korea's economic crisis in 1997. In contrast to the long-run elasticity, we find that the short-run elasticities' estimates are more statistically significant. When we use the structure break test to check the structural stability of Korea's export demand, we find that there is no structural break point of 1997. Therefore, a shock of Korea's economic crisis in 1997 might not significantly affect Korea's export demand in a given sample. However, the Information Technology (IT) bubble of the world economy in 2001 and the entry of Korea into the OECD had triggered an increase in Korea's export demand due to existing structural break points of both events. In addition, we find that income elasticities are larger than price elasticities in the short run. This implies that income has more of an impact than that of price for the export demand model in the short run. This also implies that the change of Korea's exports in the short run is more sensitive to changes in foreign income (industrial production) compared with that of price (exchange rate). An interesting result, thus, is that Korea's exports in the short run may have higher export performance on income than that of price (exchange rate). This might be a consequence of the dependence of an increase in foreign income in recent years. In recent years, developing countries have greatly increased their economic growth compared with that of developed countries and Korea's exports have increased into these developing countries. Thus, we confirm that an increase in Korea's exports is mainly affected by income compared with price, specifically in the short run by using recent data.

Thesis (M. Commerce (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2016 / The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the impact of the real effective exchange rate on South Africa‟s trade balance and whether the J-curve phenomenon and the Marshal-Lerner condition are satisfied in the economy. Using data spanning the period 1980Q1 – 2014Q4, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test as well as the Johansen cointegration test were employed to test for the long run cointegrating relationship between the variables. The ARDL approach was employed to estimate both the long run and short run models as well as to ascertain whether the Marshal – Learner condition as well as the J-curve phenomenon are satisfied in the RSA economy. The results from the cointegration tests show that there is a stable long run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance, real effective exchange rate, domestic GDP, money supply, terms of trade and foreign reserves. The results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag long run model show that a depreciation of the ZAR improves the trade balance, thus confirming the MarshalLerner condition. The results further reveal that domestic GDP and money supply both have a significant negative impact on the trade balance in the long run with the terms of trade reported positive as well. Foreign reserves were not found to significantly affect the trade balance in the long run. In the short run, the ARDL error correction model shows that a ZAR depreciation leads to a deterioration of the trade balance, thus confirming the J-curve effect for the RSA economy. The terms of trade effect was reported positive in the short run, thus confirming the Harberger-LaursenMetzler effect (HLME) in the process. Money supply, domestic GDP and foreign reserves are also found to have a significant negative impact on the trade balance in the short run. Finally, the error correction model reveals that about 26% of the disequilibrium in the trade balance model is corrected in each quarter.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / The purpose of this study was to investigate growth through innovation and productivity in the South African economy. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to analyse the annual time series data from the period 1994 to 2018. The data of the study is quantitative and was collected from the South African Reserve Bank and the World Bank. Due to a decline in investment in innovation in South Africa as compared to Brazil, Russia, India and China, the study recommends increased investment in innovation, which may yield positive results on economic growth given the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) presence. The results of the study indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the variables furthermore, in the short-run research and development (R&D), several patents and manufacturing: Labour productivity has a positive and is statistically significant on GDP. However, labour productivity in the non-agricultural sector is positive but statistically insignificant on GDP. Moreover, the findings, in the long run, reveal that R&D, number of patents, and manufacturing: labour productivity is positive and statistically significant on the economic growth in South Africa while labour productivity in the non-agricultural sector has a negative impact on economic growth. This study recommends that policymakers should aim at increasing government-funded R&D, education and human capital to induce productivity and eventually drive up economic growth in South Africa.

The thesis examined the comprehensive causal relationship between the banking sector, stock market development and economic growth in a multi-variate framework using Zimbabwean time series data from 1988 to 2015. Three banking sector development proxies (total financial sector credit, banking credit to private sector and broad money M3) and three stock market development proxies (stock market capitalization, value traded and turnover ratio) were employed to estimate both long and short run relationships between banking sector, stock market and economic growth in Zimbabwe. The study employs the vector error correction model (VECM) as the main estimation technique and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach as a robustness testing technique. Results showed that in Zimbabwe a significant causal relationship from banking sector and stock market development to economic growth exists in the long run without any feedback effects. In the short run, however, a negative yet statistically significant causal relationship runs from economic growth to banking sector and stock market development in Zimbabwe. The study further concludes that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from stock market development to banking sector development in Zimbabwe in both short and long run periods. Nonetheless this relationship between banking sector and stock markets has been found to be more significant in the short run than in the long run. The thesis adopts the complementary view and recommends for the spontaneity implementation of monetary policies as the economy grows. Monetary authorities should thus formulate policies to promote both banks and stock markets with corresponding growth in Zimbabwe’s economy. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)