Our research reveals the impact of foreign direct investment on the intensity of bilateral trade in the Central Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on countries of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Estonia (CEE-6). Previous literature and research results indicate that there is a complementary or substitute relationship between FDI and trade. However, the studies of this subject on the CEE region are scarce. Our study employs the gravity model to analyze the impact of FDI on bilateral trade with panel data of each country from 2005 to 2019. Based on the panel data, we investigate the commercial integration among CEE-6 and with main EU commercial partners. Our results suggest a prevalence of complementary relationships in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia, yet each country demonstrates the relationship through different facts. The complementary relationship is attributed to the prevalent vertical FDI in CEECs, especially in the automotive industry. However, Estonia displays a substitutive relationship between outward FDI and trade. Moreover, we find the commercial integration only exists among the Visegrad group.

The purpose of this thesis is to implement the gravity model approach to identify and quantify determinants of bilateral trade flows of Germany and its trading partners, while focusing on the effect of institutions. Based on various gravity model techniques (clustered pooled OLS, Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimation, Hausman and Taylor estimation and Instrumental Variables regression), we have confirmed that the quality of institutions have a signifiant and positive effect on German exports. Depending on model specification and estimation technique, some institutions seem to effect German export more than others. We see the Hausman and Taylor estimator advisable for addressing endogeneity of institutions.

The objective of this paper is to assess the bilateral exports from an origin to a destination, in the context of countries belonging to the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether or not the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) leads to trade creation or trade diversion, or both. To study this, a panel gravity model is employed with 135 countries, from 2000-2014, using a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood method (PPML). To study the impact of AFTA on trade creation/diversion, a set of three dummy variables are used, denoting whether the origin country belongs to ASEAN, whether the destination country belongs to ASEAN and finally, whether both origin and the destination countries belong to ASEAN. Along with AFTA, five other Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) are also taken into account. The main finding of this paper is that there is no pure trade creation nor pure trade diversion due to AFTA, but rather a significant export trade creation, that is, ASEAN’s exports to the rest of the world is positive and significant. Future policy implications could include measures to strengthen the regional economic cooperation amongst the members of ASEAN.

No description available.

With the growth of international trade many researchers are questioning the effects on the environment by emissions embodied in international trade flows. The embodied emissions in the import (EEI) and export of Sweden are relatively unexplored despite being a trade-dependent country. However, a few earlier studies indicate that the largest share of embodied CO2 in the international trade of Sweden is in the import from China. This thesis evaluates Sweden’s EEI from China during the years 1995-2009 by using an input-output analysis with the emissions in bilateral trade approach. Different from existing studies, the sector distributions of the EEI are outlined with high transparency and the driving factors for the change in EEI are identified by using a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Results shows that the EEI increased significantly from 1995-2009 and that the main increase occurred during 2002-2007. The import of electrical and optical equipment, textile products and renting of machinery and equipment contributed to the largest share of the EEI. The EEI induced from the total import were mainly generated from electricity, gas and water supply and other heavy industries. Results from the SDA showed that the scale effect from increased imports from especially heavy industries had a large influence on the growth in embodied CO2 emissions. The service sectors contributed to the second largest share of the increase in the EEI due to scale and structural effects. The technical effect, on the contrary, was markedly offsetting the increase of embodied CO2 emissions both for heavy and light industries.

The main task of this thesis is to investigate economic implications of U.S.- China trade. The study period covers from 1972 to 1992. Data are available from International Financial Statistics, Survey of Current Business, Statistical Yearbook of P.R.China. Various hypotheses are employed to explain the basis and gain of trade, the impact of trade on both economies, and the major determinants of bilateral trade flows. This thesis contains five parts: I. Introduction; II. Outlook; III. Theoretical Analysis; IV. Empirical Study; and V. Conclusion. The major findings of this thesis are that both countries have gained advantages from trade and have also faced some unpleasant problems; several widely recognized theories serve as good approaches to understand these issues; the time series distributed lag models are helpful in explaining the determinants of trade flows.

Submitted by CARLA MARIA GOULART DE MORAES (carlagm) on 2015-05-08T12:30:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudir_Olipio_Graf.pdf: 492252 bytes, checksum: 10814f55e258dc8182f0963ace67d33b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T12:30:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudir_Olipio_Graf.pdf: 492252 bytes, checksum: 10814f55e258dc8182f0963ace67d33b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-25 / Nenhuma / A segunda onda do regionalismo no início da década de 1990 mudou consideravelmente o cenário do comércio internacional, sendo criados neste período, uma série de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APC). No início da década de 2000, a literatura passou a estudar os efeitos provocados pela criação destes acordos no comércio internacional. O objetivo principal deste estudo é estimar o comércio bilateral potencial entre os países membros do MERCOSUL (Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai) através do modelo gravitacional, através de dados em painel com efeitos aleatórios. Foi estimado o fluxo potencial de comércio para o ano de 2009, sendo utilizados dados de 1999 a 2009, de uma amostra de 67 países. Os estimadores que mediram os efeitos do bloco no fluxo bilateral de comércio, mesmo sendo significativos, não influenciaram consideravelmente o fluxo de comércio. As estimações tiveram uma aproximação considerável entre o modelo estimado e o fluxo real de comércio bilateral, para o ano de 2009, obtendo um diferencial entre o fluxo potencial de comércio e o comércio efetivo de apenas 3,47%. Os fluxos que apresentaram maior potencial de comércio foram Argentina x Paraguai e Argentina x Uruguai, enquanto que o país que mais supera o fluxo potencial de comércio é o Brasil, que em todos os fluxos, com exceção de Brasil x Paraguai, excede o seu potencial. / The second wave of regionalism, occurred from the nineties, changed significantly the international trade scenario, with the creation of many Preferential Trading Arrangements (PTA). In a beginning of the 2000, the literature went on to study the effects caused by these arrangements on international trade. The aim of this dissertation is to estimate the potential bilateral trade between MERCOSUR members (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) using a gravity model, based on panel data. The potential trade flows were estimated for the year 2009, using data for 1999 to 2009, based in a sample of 67 countries. The estimators which measured the bloc effects in bilateral trade flows, even though significant, do not influence considerably the trade flows. The results show a considerable approximation between the estimate potential flows and the real bilateral trade flows in 2009, with a difference between the potential trade flows and the effective trade of only 3,47%. The trade flows with the larger potential trade were Argentina x Paraguay and Argentina x Uruguay, while the country that the effective trade overcomes the potential flows is Brazil, that in all flows, except Brazil x Paraguay, exceeds its potential flows, both as an importer and as an exporter.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2015-10-21T12:42:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PABLO CHAVES ORTIZ_.pdf: 463828 bytes, checksum: e88392b8026ccd01016ffae992b7bb3b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-21T12:42:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PABLO CHAVES ORTIZ_.pdf: 463828 bytes, checksum: e88392b8026ccd01016ffae992b7bb3b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-29 / Nenhuma / A partir da década de 1990, houve uma proliferação de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APC) ao redor do mundo. Dentro deste cenário de mudança do comércio mundial, a América Latina foi um importante ator na criação de novos acordos. Entretanto, devido a histórica instabilidade política e econômica da região, nunca houve uma integração de fato, devido principalmente ao caráter protecionista dos países. Nesse sentido, a Aliança do Pacífico (Chile, Colômbia, Peru e México) vem com uma proposta de integração econômica diferente, com objetivo de unir suas economias ainda mais e estar aberta às negociações comerciais com terceiros países. O objetivo deste estudo é estimar o comércio bilateral potencial entre os países membros da Aliança do Pacífico, através do modelo gravitacional de comércio por meio de dados em painel com efeitos fixos para o ano de 2013, com uma amostra de 98 países. Os resultados mostraram que o comércio estimado para o ano de 2013 ficou apenas 1% abaixo do comércio efetivo, o equivalente a US$ 240,6 milhões. A análise por par de países mostrou que o mais beneficiado com a criação da AP seria o México, expandindo consideravelmente suas importações e exportações. / From the 1990s, there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements (APC) around the world. Within this world trade change of scenery, Latin America was a key player in the creation of new agreements. However, due to historical political and economic instability in the region, there has never been an integration, mainly due to the protectionist nature of countries. In this sense, the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico) comes with a proposal for a different economic integration, aiming to unite their economies further and be open to trade negotiations with third countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the bilateral trade potential between the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA), through the gravitational trade model in panel data with fixed effects for year 2013, with a sample of 98 countries. The results showed that the estimated trade for the year 2013 was only 1% below the actual trade, equivalent to US $ 240.6 million. Analysis by pair of countries showed that most benefited from the creation of the Pacific Alliance would be Mexico, considerably expanding its imports and exports.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-10-04T17:51:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rubiele Liandra Tartas_.pdf: 575511 bytes, checksum: 4d5e6663c01a23d545029684e5ff638d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-04T17:51:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rubiele Liandra Tartas_.pdf: 575511 bytes, checksum: 4d5e6663c01a23d545029684e5ff638d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-24 / Nenhuma / A integração de um país no comércio internacional é um fator determinante para o seu desempenho econômico. Uma economia aberta é capaz de proporcionar desenvolvimento através da melhoria da qualidade de vida da população e de gerar crescimento econômico por meio de uma melhor eficiência alocativa e transferência de tecnologia. Enquanto o comércio internacional possui grande relevância para a maioria economia dos países, no Brasil ele ainda é pouco significativo, ficando em torno de apenas 20% do PIB. Considerando essas constatações, o presente trabalho busca analisar se o comércio efetivo entre o Brasil e seus 10 principais parceiros comerciais já atingiu seu limite ou se há espaço para uma sua ampliação. Para tanto, estimou-se o comércio potencial brasileiro através do modelo gravitacional em dados em painel com efeitos fixos, para o período entre 2001 e 2014, de uma amostra de 68 países. As estimações apresentaram uma aproximação considerável para o último ano da amostra, em 2014, obtendo um diferencial entre o fluxo estimado e o efetivo de apenas 2%. Mas é possível identificar parceiros comerciais relevantes com os quais haveria espaço para o Brasil ampliar as suas relações comerciais, especialmente Estados Unidos, Alemanha e Japão. / The integration of a country in international trade is a determining factor for their economic potential. An open economy is able to provide development by improving the population's quality of life and generate economic growth from improved allocative efficiency and technological diffusion. While international trade is important for most countries, Brazil is an exception, with a small trade-to-GDP ratio near to 20%. Considering these findings, this study analyses whether Brazilian trade with its 10 major trading partners already reached its potential or whether there still space to increase. It uses a panel data gravity model, with fixed effects, to estimate Brazilian potential bilateral trade with 68 countries in the period 2001-2014. The results show that actual and potential trade is quite similar, with a small difference of 2% in 2014, but it also was possible to note that in some important trading partners of Brazil, especially United States, Germany and Japan, there is room from increasing trade relations.

亞太地區之經濟發展實深受貿易活動的影響，為進一步探討影響亞太國家雙邊貿易之決定因素，本研究嘗試以「引力模式」（Gravity Model）進行分析。引力模式是指：兩國之間的貿易和兩國的產出成正向關係，但與兩國之間的距離成反比關係。引力模式之直覺概念與物理學上說明兩物質之間吸引力的萬有引力公式類似。自Tinbergen（1962）最先使用引力模型分析雙邊貿易流量以來，引力方程式應用在雙邊貿易影響因素之探討已有30年的歷史，其實證上的成功已廣受支持。再者，APEC、ASEAN、NAFTA三個區域集團是亞太地區最具代表性的組織，其不斷地加強區域內部之經貿合作，但究竟區域集團對貿易之影響效果為何，實值得進一步探討。 為此，本研究首先回顧「引力模式」應用在雙邊貿易之相關文獻，隨後據以推論影響雙邊貿易之決定因素並建立相關假說予以驗證。有關模型之建立，則以Ma’tya’s (1997)之固定效果模型為出發點，嘗試以涵蓋十六個亞太國家同時跨五個時點之資料型態逐步建構亞太國家雙邊貿易活動之決定因素模型，同時探討其決定因素之重要性，並驗證各項假說。 經由實證分析，可知GDP等7個因素對出口具解釋能力及其對出口之影響方向，此外尚且發現亞太地區存在某種程度之集團貿易效果。同時也證實亞太國家雙邊貿易現象符合「引力模式」之基本意涵，即兩國間之貿易量與兩國的國內生產毛額成正比，而與兩國間的地理距離成反比。因此可以推論「引力模式」適用於分析亞太國家之雙邊貿易現象。關於集團貿易效果部分，根據1985至1997年間之實證結果，我們發現APEC之貿易效果雖未顯著，卻由「負」轉「正」並逐年增加；ASEAN於1985年存在貿易效果，之後並沒有顯著貿易效果存在；而NAFTA之貿易效果顯著且有逐年增加之趨勢；本研究亦分別針對上述之研究發現，嘗試探究其背後之原因。 最後，本研究就本國之GDP、本國政治穩定度及實質匯率等三方面本國較能影響之變數，提出政策建議；並就集團之實證結果，提出意見供予參考。 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1 第一節 研究動機………………………………………………1 第二節 研究問題與目的………………………………………7 第三節 章節說明及研究流程…………………………………8 第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………11 第一節 引力模式之回顧………………………………………11 第二節 雙邊貿易之決定因素…………………………………23 第三節 研究假說………………………………………………28 第三章 研究方法………………………………………………………31 第一節 模型說明………………………………………………31 第二節 研究變數之定義與衡量………………………………33 第三節 資料來源………………………………………………41 第四章 實證步驟與實證結果…………………………………………45 第一節 前言……………………………………………………45 第二節 實證步驟與實證結果…………………………………46 第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………………61 第一節 研究結論………………………………………………61 第二節 政策上的建議…………………………………………70 第三節 理論和實證上的貢獻…………………………………73 第四節 研究限制………………………………………………75 第五節 後續研究建議…………………………………………76 參考文獻……………………………………………………………… 78