Long-term watershed and field nitrogen (N) balances were used in this study to quantify the surface (baseflow) and ground water lag times and effects of BMPs on N discharge from a Virginia Coastal Plain watershed. Ten-year water quantity/quality data (1986-1996) collected at the Nomini Creek (NC) watershed were used. Field (Field-N) and watershed (Watershed-N) scale N models were developed for computing the N balances. BMPs evaluated in this study included no-till corn and split N application. The role of atmospheric N (atm-N) deposition (dry+wet) in masking the effects of BMPs on watershed N loading was also investigated. Nitrogen retention and discharge from the forest areas in the NC watershed were simulated using the 5-year water and N input and output data from forested subwatersheds. Field and watershed N balances (WNBAL) were used to evaluate the effects of BMPs on measured surface and ground water N in the NC watershed. A 6-month laboratory study was conducted to develop N mineralization (Nmin) models for agricultural, forest, and fallow soils in the NC watershed. Mineralization potential (N0) and rate constants (k) for surface and subsurface soils from agricultural, forest, and fallow soils were estimated by fitting the laboratory measured data to a first-order model, using the nonlinear regression procedure. A large variability (300%, 163 - 471 kg/ha) in N0 of agricultural surface soils was observed. On average, forest soils had much higher potentially mineralizable N than agricultural soils. The first-order model was incorporated into the Field-N model to predict daily Nmin using the measured N0 and k and daily values of soil water and temperature. Atmospheric deposition was a major source of N in the NC watershed, accounting for 23% of the total N input. Variation in atm-N deposition during the 10-year period was from 10 to 42 kg/ha (average = 25 kg/ha); much larger than the variation in fertilizer N (37 to 51 kg/ha). Atm-N deposition was found to be a controlling factor affecting surface water DIN (dissolved inorganic N) and TDN (total dissolved N) loading in the NC watershed; an indication that atm-N deposition is a masking factor in the BMP impact evaluation. Large uncertainty in atm-N deposition existed due to uncertainty involved in quantifying dry N deposition. Forested areas of the NC watershed retained 77% of the atm-N deposition. Forest area N discharge was simulated using the 77% retention and annual atmospheric deposition. Comparison of Field-N predicted N balance and leaching (steady-state and transient conditions) with observed ground water NO3 concentration revealed that the ground water lag time ranged from 2 to 8 months. Unusually rapid transport of solute in the watershed was facilitated by the network of discontinuous clay lenses. Based on the lag time, the pre-BMP (1986-1990) and post-BMP (1991-1995) periods were defined. Results from Field-N indicated that implementation of split fertilizer N on corn reduced the post-BMP ground water NO3 concentration by 10-12% at two of the four ground water monitoring sites. The split N application reduced the frequency of detection of high NO3 (> 9 mg/l) concentration by 44% during the post-BMP period. Considerably large uncertainty existed in evaluating the effects of BMPs on ground water NO3 due to N contributions from neighboring agricultural and forest areas. Effects of no-till corn could not be evaluated since this BMP was already implemented at the sites prior to the beginning of the study. Results of statistical trend analysis of the ground water N supported the modeling results. Watershed-N model was able to accurately predict the effects of land use activities on watershed N balances (WNBAL) and baseflow and ground water N. A one-to-one relationship between the WNBAL and observed N loading and concentration time series was observed. Comparison of WNBAL and measured baseflow N revealed that the baseflow lag time or residence time was between 4-11 months. Multivariate regression models were developed to predict baseflow N using Watershed-N results. The multivariate model predicted the N loading and concentration exceptionally well (R2 > 90%). Corn N input and output and acreage was an important predictor of ground water N and baseflow N loading and concentration. Post-BMP WNBAL was considerably less than the WNBAL for the pre-BMP period. However, these reductions were mainly due to the 43% reductions in atm-N deposition and 31% increase in the plant uptake during the post-BMP period. Reductions in WNBAL caused by BMPs were only 5%. Reductions in N loading caused by BMPs were 10%. Statistical trend analysis of monitoring and modeling results indicated significant post-BMP reductions in WNBAL and DIN and TDN loading. However, poor to moderate evidence was available to suggest that BMPs caused a significant reductions in WNBAL and N loading. Marginal effects of BMPs could mainly be attributed to insufficient BMP implementation. Watershed-N was used to evaluate N reduction scenarios and to design BMPs. Irrigating corn was one of the best BMPs, as it could reduce N loading from NC watershed by 50%. Quantification of lag time and long-term watershed N balances from this study provide crucial information for understanding N cycling and factors controlling N discharges which is essential for designing programs for controlling N discharges from Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain watersheds. / Ph. D.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a estabilidade de genes de referÃncia e a expressÃo das proteÃnas morfogenÃticas Ãsseas (BMP-2, 4, 6, 7 e 15), seus receptores (BMPR-IA, IB e II) e seus mensageiros intracelulares (SMADs-1, 5 e 8) em folÃculos caprinos antes e apÃs cultivo por 18 dias. Para avaliar a estabilidade dos genes de referÃncia e o nÃvel de expressÃo das BMPs, receptores e SMADs, folÃculos com aproximadamente 0,2, 0,5 e 1 mm foram isolados mecanicamente de ovÃrios caprinos. AlÃm disso, folÃculos com aproximadamente 0,2 mm foram isolados e cultivados por 18 dias em meio de cultura suplementado com FSH. ApÃs a extraÃÃo do RNA total e sÃntese de cDNA, foi realizada a quantificaÃÃo do RNAm, por PCR em tempo real, utilizando-se primers especÃficos para genes de referÃncia (β-actina, PGK, GAPDH, β-tubulina, UBQ, RPL-19, rRNA18S), e para as BMPs (2, 4, 6, 7 e 15) receptores de BMPs (BMPR-IA, IB e II) e SMADs (1, 5 e 8). Os resultados mostraram que β-tubulina e PGK sÃo os genes de referÃncia mais estÃveis em folÃculos frescos prÃ-antrais e antrais caprinos. Os RNAs mensageiros para as BMPs (2, 4, 6, 7 e 15), seus receptores (BMPR-IA, IB e II) e SMADs (1, 5 e 8) sÃo expressos em diferentes nÃveis em folÃculos prÃ-antrais e antrais caprinos, sendo que a expressÃo do RNAm para BMP-4, BMP-6 e BMP-7 em folÃculos de 1 mm sÃo significativamente maiores do que em folÃculos de 0,2 e 0,5 mm. Entretanto, os nÃveis de RNAm para BMP-2 foi reduzido em folÃculos de 1 mm, jà os nÃveis de BMP-15 nÃo diferiram entre as categorias foliculares analisadas. Os nÃveis de RNAm para BMPR-IB foram maiores em folÃculos de 0,2 mm do que em folÃculos de 0,5 e 1 mm, enquanto que o RNAm para BMPR-II foi significativamente maior em folÃculos de 0,5 mm do que em folÃculos de 0,2 e 1 mm. Por outro lado, nÃveis de RNAm para BMPR-1A nÃo diferiram entre folÃculos analisados. Os nÃveis de RNAm para SMAD-5 foram significativamente maiores em folÃculos de 0,2 mm do que em folÃculos de 0,5 e 1 mm. Contudo, folÃculos de 0,5 mm mostraram nÃveis maiores de RNAm para SMAD-8 do que folÃculos de 0,2 e 1 mm. Os nÃveis de RNAm para SMAD-1 nÃo diferiram entre os folÃculos. ApÃs as comparaÃÃes dentro de cada categoria folÃcular, BMP-15 foi mais expressa do que BMP-7 em folÃculos de 0,2 e 0,5 mm. Em folÃculos de 0,5 mm a expressÃo do BMPR-IB foi maior do que BMPR-II. Em todas as trÃs categorias foliculares estudadas, a expressÃo da SMAD-5 foi superior a SMAD-8. ApÃs o cultivo, os folÃculos apresentaram reduÃÃo dos nÃveis de RNAm para BMP-2, BMP-4, BMP-7, BMPR-IA e SMAD-5. Em conclusÃo, β-tubulina e PGK sÃo os dois genes housekeeping mais estÃveis para folÃculos frescos caprinos com 0,2, 0,5 e 1 mm de diÃmetro. BMPs, seus receptores e SMADs apresentam padrÃes de expressÃo especÃficos em cada categoria folicular estudada. No entanto, em folÃculos cultivados hà uma variaÃÃo na expressÃo dos componentes do sistema BMP, diferindo da expressÃo in vivo de folÃculos com o mesmo tamanho. / The aims this study to evaluate the stability of reference genes and the expression of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP-2, 4, 6, 7 and 15), their receptors (BMPR-IA, IB and II) and intracellular messengers (SMADs- 1, 5 and 8) in goat follicles before and after culture for 18 days. To evaluate the stability of reference genes and the expression of BMPs, receptors and SMADs, follicles of approximately 0.2, 0.5 and 1 mm were mechanically isolated from goats ovaries. In addition, approximately 0.2 mm follicles were isolated and cultured for 18 days in culture medium supplemented with FSH. Both fresh and cultured follicles were subjected to total RNA extraction and synthesis of cDNA, the quantification of mRNA was carried out by real-time PCR using specific primers for genes of reference (GAPDH, β-tubulin, β-actin, PGK, UBQ, RPL - 19, rRNA18S) and BMPs (2, 4, 6, 7 and 15) receptors of BMPs (BMPR-IA, IB and II) and SMADs (1, 5 and 8). Results showed that β-tubulin and PGK are the most stable reference genes in goats preantral and antral follicles. The messengers RNA for BMP (2, 4, 6, 7 and 15), their receptors (BMPR-IA, IB and II) and Smads (1, 5 and 8) are expressed at different levels in preantral and antral goats, and mRNA expression for BMP-4, BMP-6 and BMP-7 in 1-mm follicles are significantly higher than in follicles of 0.2 and 0.5 mm. However, the levels of mRNA for BMP-2 were reduced in follicles 1 mm, as BMP-15 did not differ between follicular categories. The levels of mRNA for BMPR-IB were higher in follicles of 0.2 mm than in follicles of 0.5 and 1 mm, whereas the mRNA for BMPR-II was significantly higher in follicles than 0.5 mm in follicles of 0.2 to 1 mm. Moreover, mRNA levels for BMPR-1A did not differ between follicles examined. The levels of mRNA for SMAD-5 were significantly higher in 0.2 mm follicles than in follicles of 0.5 and 1 mm. However, follicles of 0.5 mm showed higher levels of mRNA for SMAD-8 than follicles 0.2 and 1 mm. The levels of mRNA for SMAD-1 did not differ between follicles. After the comparisons within each category follicle, BMP-15 expression was higher than BMP-7 in follicles between 0.2 and 0.5 mm. Follicles 0.5 mm in the expression of BMPR-IB was greater than BMPR-II. In all three follicular categories studied, the expression of SMAD-5 was superior to SMAD-8. After culture, follicles showed reduced levels of mRNA for BMP-2, BMP-4, BMP-7, BMPR-IA and SMAD-5. In conclusion, β-tubulin and PGK genes are the two most stable housekeeping for fresh goat follicles 0.2, 0.5 to 1 mm in diameter. BMPs, their receptors and SMADs have specific expression patterns in each category follicular studied. However, in cultured follicles showed a variation in the variation in the expression of BMP system components, differing from in vivo expression of follicles with the same size.

No description available.

In Mexico, corn (Zea mays L.) is the most important crop (59% of its agriculture land) and the primary source of sediment yield. This study looks for alternatives to maintain corn productivity by means of sustainable soil and water conservation practices at central Mexico. In order to understand broad tendencies between soil erosion and crop productivity in the region, the EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) model was applied in the Texcoco's district as follows:1) Calibrate the model using 352 experimental corn plots established between 1972 and 1992 in 36 rural communities.2) Validate the model on a spatial basis, using GIS tools, by means of historic corn yields.3) Identify the most vulnerable areas where corn productivity is being affected by soil erosion.4) Analyze the relationship between soil erosion and crop productivity, over a 100 years of simulation, comparing the Current Management (CM) and the Recommended Management (RM) by governmental institutions.5) Evaluate the most feasible soil and water conservation practices for the region.From the calibration process, it was concluded that the EPIC model, under a wide range of environmental conditions, simulates very good corn yield (r2 between 0.88 and 0.90), annual runoff (r2=0.98), and annual sediment production (r2=0.96).Base on the official environmental inputs available in the region, the EPIC model can assess only a moderately strong relationship (r2=0.58) between the official historical crop records and the simulated ones.Comparison between CM and RM shows that the average crop yield in the region can be increased by 32.6% if RM were followed. Under the CM, the loss of soil fertility in the district reduces corn productivity by 3% over a hundred years. At least 50.0% of the region's agricultural area needs soil conservation practices, mainly on areas with slopes over 5%. If it is decided to grow corn under conventional till in such areas it is recommended to construct bench terraces in order to maintain soil erosion below 20 t/ha/yr. Corn under no till, besides control erosion, can also increase grain productivity by at least 40% (0.6 t/ha) by combining contouring, mulching, and manures.

In Taiwan increasing importance has recently been attached to non-point source pollution(NPS), primarily because of the deteriorated water quality and eutrophication of reservoir watershed that it can result in non-point source pollution. This study aims to understand the non-point source pollution load resulting from a large rain storm event in the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed. Most of the upper catchment of the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed is used for agricultural activities. This study established a database for the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed by using IWMM (Integrated Watershed Management Model), delineated for sub-watershed, and investigate the serious NPS pollution in the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed. Mu-dan Creek watershed and Ru-Reng Creek watershed, two the major sub-watersheds of the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed. A Geographic Information System (GIS) that was established in the watershed to (monitor OR gather) geographic parameter data was used IWMM to simulate the impact of NPS pollution on river water quality in the Mu-dan Creek and Ru-Reng Creek watersheds in 2003 and 2006. The simulation results by IWMM were applied to examine the potential of NPS pollution management plans in the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed. The simulation results for the Mu-dan Reservoir watershed during 2003 were as follows: the total pollutant load of ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) nearly 65699.4 kg/year, and the total pollutant load of nitrate ¡Vnitrogen (NO3-N) nearly 91100.5 kg/year. Meanwhile, the results for 2006 were as follows: the total pollutant load of ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) nearly 48168.1 kg/year, and the total pollutant load of nitrate ¡Vnitrogen (NO3-N) nearly43962.7kg/year. The simulation results addressed remedial strategies adopted to reduce the impact of NPS pollution on water quality, apply natural treatment systems for stormwater runoff treatment, and apply best management practice to control NPS pollutants. Finally, this study hopes make progress towards effective management of watersheds. KEYWORDS: Integrated watershed management model; non-point source pollution; BMPs

Eutrophic conditions caused Severn Sound to be listed as an Area of Concern in the 1980’s, it was then delisted in 2002 after implementing a number of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs). The focus of this research is to evaluate BMP effectiveness on a watershed scale using both monitoring and modelling. The monitoring data clearly shows that the BMPs significantly reduced the sediment loadings. It also showed that BMPs affect only the intercept and not the slope of the sediment rating curves meaning that BMPs reduce sediment loadings in a linear fashion and at a constant percentage for all sizes of storms. The literature review and associated BMP reduction factors used to model the applied BMPs clearly show that observed and predicted reductions in sediment were experienced and that the model is validated for use on a watershed scale for BMP implementation. The results from this research will further the understanding of how sediment transport curves are affected by Best Management Practices. / Chapter 1 defines the problem and scope of the research study to be examined in this thesis. The literature review presents the current state of knowledge related to the effectiveness of BMPs, sampling techniques, and the use of sediment transport curves, and watershed modelling as a tool to evaluate the use of BMPs. Chapter 3 explains the goals and objectives as well as the study area for this research. Outlined in Chapter 4 are the standard methods used for water quality monitoring and setting-up and calibrating a watershed model. Research results are presented in Chapter 5 and include measured streamflow and water quality results for the respective rivers along with results from watershed modelling. The results section also reflects on the implications for BMP effectiveness and areas of future research. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the new information gained from this research and the success of Severn Sound in leading the way in improved use of BMPs for a healthier watershed. / Severn Sound Environmental Association, Greenland International Consulting Ltd., University of Guelph School of Engineering

Applications of the SWAT model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the tool. In a standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, and slope, but located in different places within a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as LULC, soil, crop rotation and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002 to 2010 and the Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000 to 2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to assess agricultural scenario and climate change impacts on watershed water quantity, quality, and crop yields. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental, and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists modeling the combined impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on crop yields and watershed hydrology. Here, SWAT, was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural scenarios and three climate scenarios downscaled using eight climate models. These scenarios were implemented in a well calibrated SWAT model for the Raccoon River watershed (RRW), IA. We run the scenarios for the historical baseline, early-century, mid-century, and late-century periods. Results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid and late 21st century. Finally, various agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios were evaluated for their efficiency in alleviating watershed water quality problems. The vast majority of the literature on efficiency assessment of BMPs in alleviating water quality problems base their scenarios analysis on identifying subbasin level simulation results. In the this study, we used spatially explicit HRUs, defined using ArcGIS-based pre-processing methodology, to identify Nitrate (NO3) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) hotspots at the HRU/field level, and evaluate the efficiency of selected BMPs in a large watershed, RRW, using the SWAT model. Accordingly, analysis of fourteen management scenarios were performed based on systematic combinations of five agricultural BMPs (fertilizer/manure management, changing cropland to perennial grass, vegetative filter strips, cover crops and shallower tile drainage systems) aimed to reduce NO3 and TSS yields from targeted hotspot areas in the watershed at field level. Moreover, implications of climate change on management practices, and impacts of management practices on water availability and crop yield and total production were assessed. Results indicated that either implementation of multiple BMPs or conversion of an extensive area into perennial grass may be required to sufficiently reduce nitrate loads to meet the drinking water standard. Moreover, climate change may undermine the effectiveness of management practices, especially late in the 21st century. The targeted approach used in this study resulted in slight decreases in watershed average crop yields, hence the reduction in total crop production is mainly due to conversion of croplands to perennial grass.

Les Bmps sont des morphogènes jouant des rôles dans l’embryogenèse et l’organogenèse du tube digestif. Les BR-Smads, Smad1, Smad5 et Smad8, sont les effecteurs intracellulaires de cette cascade de signalisation et ils assurent la biodiversité des réponses biologiques associées aux Bmps. Plusieurs études ont démontrées des rôles importants pour le TGF-β dans le cancer colorectal et l’inflammation intestinale. Cependant, très peu d’études se sont attardées aux rôles pouvant être joués par d’autres membres de la superfamille du TGF-β dans ces pathologies. Dans cette étude, le modèle de souris possédant la délétion de Smad5 strictement à l’épithélium a permis de démontrer le rôle spécifique de cet effecteur dans les diverses actions associées à la signalisation des Bmps dans ce compartiment cellulaire. La perte conditionnelle de Smad5 cause un allongement villositaire, une hyper migration et une relocalisation cytoplasmique de la E-cadhérine dans les cellules épithéliales. Cette étude permet de démontrer l’importance de la signalisation des Bmps dans les maladies inflammatoires intestinales, puisque les défauts occasionnés par la perte de Smad5 au niveau de l’épithélium entrainent une plus grande susceptibilité à l’inflammation intestinale et des défauts importants dans la réparation la barrière épithéliale. Des mutations causant l’inhibition de la signalisation des Bmps sont fréquemment retrouvées chez des patients atteints du syndrome de JPS possédant un risque élevé de développer le cancer colorectal. Des études ont démontré l’implication des Bmps dans le maintien de l’homéostasie et l’initiation de la polypose intestinale, sans toutefois discriminer le mécanisme et le type cellulaire responsable de l’induction de ce phénotype. Les études antérieures du laboratoire ont permis de démontrer que la perte des Bmps strictement épithéliale était insuffisante pour initier la polypose colique, suggérant une implication de cette signalisation au niveau des cellules extra-épithéliales. Le modèle murin ayant la délétion du récepteur Bmpr1a dans le mésenchyme seulement a permis de mettre en évidence un rôle essentiel de cette signalisation dans le contrôle du microenvironnement entourant les cellules épithéliales et l’induction de la polypose colique. Le modèle cellulaire a révélé un profil transcriptionnel s’apparentant à celui retrouvé dans le microenvironnement des tumeurs de cancer colorectal. Cette étude démontre que la signalisation des Bmps mésenchymateuse est primordiale pour contrôler l’homéostasie intestinale et l’initiation de la polypose.

This study examines the use of bioretention as a strategy to reduce the thermal impact associated with urban stormwater runoff in developing cold water stream watersheds. Temperature and flow data were collected during ten controlled trials at a bioretention facility located in Blacksburg, Virginia. It was determined that bioretention has the ability to reduce the temperature of thermally charged stormwater runoff received from an asphalt surface. Significant reductions in average and peak temperatures were observed. However, this facility was unable to consistently reduce the temperature below the threshold for trout health. The ability of bioretention to reduce runoff flow rates could also serve to reduce the thermal impact. Based on these results it was concluded that bioretention appears to have the capability to reduce the thermal impact of urban stormwater runoff on cold water stream ecosystems. / Master of Science

Poor harvesting practices can accelerate soil erosion and decrease water quality and site productivity. Forestry Best Management Practices (BMPs) were developed to protect water quality, primarily by minimizing erosion during and after timber harvests. Although properly employed BMPs mitigate against the immediate potential for soil loss, little information exists regarding their long-term effectiveness. Since 1993, the Virginia Department of Forestry (VDOF) has conducted random water quality audits on forest harvesting operations. The VDOF will recommend remedial BMPs immediately if there is an active water quality law violation, and these recommendations are usually obviously clear to all parties. However, the potential for water degradation is more controversial and debates can arise over these recommendations. The VDOF, as in most states, does not have the resources to make visits to post harvest sites over time. Therefore, it is imperative that the BMPs employed at the closeout of the timber harvest be sufficient to ensure erosion control until the site has recovered, yet, BMP evaluations should represent real or potential problems. This study was undertaken to provide a quantitative analysis of erosion rates over time on VDOF random audited harvest sites and to identify key factors of erosion rates for log decks, skid trails, access roads, harvest areas, and stream crossings within each of Virginia's physiographic regions. A secondary objective was to provide a greater level of decision support for VDOF field staff, through the identified key factors which would indicate potential problem areas of erosion and water quality degradation particularly from logging activities and temporary roads. To better understand the primary causes of erosion over time the Dissmeyer and Foster Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used to establish quantitative erosion rates which officials can use to focus BMP recommendations. Such a decision support system for field staff, based on quantifiable erosion estimates, provides a proactive targeted prevention assessment prior to the development of actual water pollution problems. Analyses of logged tracts throughout Virginia revealed that estimated erosion rates were not statistically significant between physiographic provinces as well as VDOF audit classifications. Timber access roads were the greatest source of erosion in the Piedmont and Mountains, while harvested areas were the largest identified erosion area in the Coastal Plain, based upon the disturbance categories ratio to the total tract area. Estimated erosion rate trends over time indicated that the majority of disturbance categories were essentially recovered between eight to ten years after harvest. Further, disturbance categories in the Coastal Plain recovered faster than the other province. Erosion rates could not be explained by the year since harvest, since numerous variables interact to cause erosion. Overall predicted erosion rates and VDOF audit classifications of problems did not have consistent agreement. This indicates the need for additional calibration of VDOF ratings and perhaps the establishment of more quantifiable BMP inspection criteria. / Master of Science