En los últimos años han existido fluctuaciones cotidianas dentro del sistema financiero latinoamericano, con excepción de la crisis del 2008, que demuestra como la economía se comporta luego de una situación particular como es una recesión mundial a gran escala. Cabe resaltar que pueden ocurrir eventos no comunes que pueden desembocar en una crisis económica. A partir de esto nace la curiosidad de investigar una variable que permita ser medida como un soporte para el sector financiero para mitigar una futura recesión económica en los países. Este documento investiga de qué forma el riesgo crediticio a través de las provisiones bancarias afecta el ciclo económico y los créditos bancarios. La evidencia empírica señala que el indicador de calidad de cartera total del sistema bancario impacta a las variables como créditos, PBI y tasa de interés principalmente. Se estima un modelo de panel de Vectores Autorregresivos para una muestra equilibrada de 4 países de Latinoamérica (Chile, Colombia, México y Perú) para el periodo 2005-2019. Se utilizan las variables tasa de interés, créditos bancarios, la inflación, brecha producto, así como las provisiones como parte de la calidad de cartera del sistema bancario. Se encuentra que la calidad de cartera en los cuatro países de Latinoamérica impacta negativamente los ciclos económicos y los préstamos bancarios con el soporte de un análisis estadístico y revisión de conceptos económicos, el cual aplicado un marco macroeconómico que incluye al sector bancario y la variable de calidad de cartera considerando el nivel de provisiones como un factor para medir el riesgo crediticio. / In recent years there have been daily fluctuations inside the Latin American financial system, with the exception of the 2008 crisis, which shows how the economy behaves after a particular situation such as a large-scale global recession. It should be noted that unusual events can occur that can lead to an economic crisis. About this situations, the initiative arises to investigate a variable that allows measuring it as a support for the financial sector to mitigate a future economic recession in the countries. This document investigates how credit risk through bank provisions affects the economic cycle and bank loans. The empirical evidence indicates that the indicator of quality of the total portfolio of the banking system impacts variables such as loans, GDP and interest rate mainly. A panel model of Autoregressive Vectors is estimated for a balanced sample of 4 Latin American countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) for the period 2005-2019. The variables interest rate, bank loans, inflation, output gap, as well as provisions are used as part of the portfolio quality of the banking system. It shows that portfolio quality in the four Latin American countries negatively impacts business cycles and bank loans with the support of a statistical analysis and review of economic concepts, which applied a macroeconomic framework that includes the banking sector and the variable of portfolio quality considering the level of provisions as a factor to measure credit risk. / Trabajo de investigación

In this thesis, I examine the conventional assumption of identifying investment-specific technology by the inverse of the relative price of investment. Linking prices to technology in this fashion implies that the relative price is orthogonal to any other form of economic disturbance. However, recent research has found that both neutral technology and the relative price of investment are cointegrated in the postwar US. In the chapters that follow, I explore the impact of this identification by either linking the relative price of investment to total factor productivity, or by allowing this relative price to vary depending on investment demand. In all three chapters, I find that loosening this restriction has a sizable effect on the outcome of my research as it compares to the current literature. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

This thesis investigates the role of intangible capital and intangible investment (the intangibles) in explaining modern economic activity. It presents an in depth analysis of the context in which the intangibles are studied in the economic literature, and modifies existing theoretical real business cycle (RBC) models to account for the presence of the intangibles. The newly developed models are further used to address previously documented issues such as the Canadian productivity puzzle and the quantity anomaly. Chapter 1 provides a detailed explanation of the concept of the intangibles in the economic literature. It also highlights the importance of accounting for the intangibles during economic analysis and presents a detailed analysis of how they are measured and modeled in practice. The main findings indicate that the intangibles have contributed positively to economic growth and productivity. The need for improvements in the measurement and modeling of the intangibles is also identified. Specifically, there is a need to improve the estimates of the depreciation rates and price deflators that are used in the measurement of intangible assets; and a need for proper model specification testing to validate the inclusion of the intangibles when modeling economic activity. Chapter 2 explores the role of the intangibles in explaining business cycles in a small open economy. The benchmark two-sector model developed in this chapter is tailored to the Canadian economy and allows for the examination of the relationship between intangible investment and the trade balance, which has not been attempted to date in the RBC literature. Overall, this chapter finds that technological change in the production of intangible investment plays an important role in explaining labour productivity and business cycles in a small open economy. Simulations based on the benchmark two-sector model highlight the circumstances under which the trade balance to business sector output ratio tends to be procyclical. The extended model is further used to make predictions about the Canadian productivity puzzle, where the main findings reinforce the need to re-evaluate the traditional measure of productivity in business cycle models. Chapter 3 is motivated by the rising levels of intangible investment in the U.S. and Europe. These investments have been expensed in the national accounts rather than capitalized (unmeasured investment) and this practice has resulted in the traditional measures of investment, productivity and output underestimating their true levels. In order to investigate the economic impact of this practice in an international setting, the standard two-country business cycle model is extended to include such intangibles. The main results imply that the traditional measures of output and labour productivity differences across countries are understated when intangible investment is not properly accounted for. The modeling of intangible investment also improves the fit of the model based upon recent data on international business cycles. This is most evident in the international correlation of investment, which the standard model predicts to be low (0.13) and the extended model correctly predicts to be high (0.66) as seen in the data (0.74). / Dissertation / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

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This study examines intertemporal variation in the associations of accounting data with subsequent firm returns. A number of accounting research studies pool data indiscriminately across time and firms. Previous research has disclosed the nature and effects of cross-sectional dependencies in pooled data. On the other hand, intertemporal dependencies associated with real macroeconomic phenomena have not been widely researched. The objective of this study was to provide evidence as to whether accounting data's associations with subsequent firm returns systematically vary across recession-associated and expansion-associated valuation change periods. Eighty-two accounting ratios were examined for evidence of systematic variation in association across business cycle-associated valuation events. Analyses are conducted, using both simple and multiple regression. Business cycle effects on the predictive accuracy of regression models were also examined. / Ph. D.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for the analysis of South African macroeconomic business cycle phenomena. It includes four separate, but interrelated parts, which follow a logical sequence. The rst part motivates the use of these models before establishing the theoretical foundations for these models. The theoretical foundations are accompanied by detailed derivations that are used to construct a model for a small open economy. The second part considers the properties of South African macroeconomic data that may be used to estimate the parameters in these models. It includes a discussion of the variables that may be included in such a model, as well as various methods that may be used to extract the business cycle. Thereafter, the sample size for the dataset is established, after investigating for possible structural breaks in the rst two moments of the data, using various univariate and multivariate techniques. The nal chapter of this part contains an investigation into the measures of core in ation, whereby a comparison of trimmed means, dynamic factor models and various wavelet decompositions are applied to data for South Africa. The third part considers the application of the dataset that was identi ed in part two, in a DSGE model that incorporates features that are typical of small open economies. It includes a discussion that relates to the role of the exchange rate in these models, which is found to contain key information. In addition, this part also includes a optimal policy investigation, which considers the reaction function of central bank. The nal part of this thesis considers more recent advances that have been applied to DSGE models for the South African economy. It includes an example of a nonlinear model that is estimated with the aid of a particle lter, which is then used for forecasting purposes. The forecasting results of both linear and nonlinear versions of the model are then compared with the results from various Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR models. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif oorweeg die gebruik van Dinamiese Stogastiese Algemene Ewewig (Engels: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)) modelle vir die analise van besigheidsiklus gebeure in die Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomie. Dit bestaan uit vier aparte dog onderling verwante dele wat in « logiese ontwikkeling vorm. Die eerste deel motiveer die gebruik van dié modelle en daarna word die teoretiese onderbou van die modelle daargestel. Die teoretiese onderbou word aangevul met gedetaileerde stappe van die a eiding van die verhoudings wat gebruik word om « model vir « klein oop ekonomie saam te stel. Die tweede deel oorweeg die eienskappe van Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomiese data wat relevant is vir « ekonometriese model in hierdie konteks. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die veranderlikes wat vir so « model gebruik kan word, asook « bespreking van die verskeie metodes wat gebruik kan word om die besigheidsiklus uit die data te identi seer. Die steekproefgrootte van die data word dan vasgestel, ná die moontlikheid van strukturele onderbrekings van tendens in die eerste en tweede momente van die data ondersoek is met behulp van verskeie enkel en meervoudige-veranderlike tegnieke. Die laaste hoofstuk van dié deel is « studie van verskeie maatstawwe van kern in asie (core in ation), waar « vergelyking getref word tussen die resultate van die volgende metodes toegepas op Suid Afrikaanse data: afgesnede gemiddeldes (trimmed means), dinamiese faktor modelle en verskeie golfvormige onderverdelings (wavelet decompositions). Die derde deel gebruik die datastel, wat in deel twee ontwikkel is, in die passing van « DSGE model wat die tipiese eienskappe van « klein oop ekonomie inkorporeer. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die rol van die wisselkoers in hierdie tipe modelle, en daar word empiries bevind dat die wisselkoers belangrike inligting bevat. Hierdie deel sluit ook « ondersoek in van optimale beleid in terme van die reaksie funksie van die sentrale bank. Die laaste deel van die proefskrif bestudeer die resultate van onlangse ontwikkellinge in DSGE modelle wat toegepas word op die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie. Dit sluit « voorbeeld van « nie-liniêre model wat met behulp van « partikel lter (particle lter) geskat word en gebruik word vir vooruitskattings. Die vooruitskattings uit beide die liniêre en nie-liniêre modelle word dan vergelyk met dié verkry uit verskeie Vektor

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, 2005. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-88).