Since 1976, Syria has suffered two separate but in nature similar rebellions which was different in terms of spreading, impact and size. The existing literature fails to compare these rebellions and answer the question on how two similar uprising can produce different outcomes. The objective of this study is to answer that question and produce a foundation that is usable when studying future uprisings in the Middle East and Syria. This is a qualitative research that uses multiple case studies that are compared in order to fulfil the objective of this study. The research if a desk study and uses an abductive approach. Two different theoretical concepts have been used in order to understand the dynamics that shaped the two rebellions. These are Frank H. Zimmerman's theory on why insurgencies fail and Frederick D. Miller's model of movement decline. The authors pinpoint different factors that makes a uprising prone to failure or success and these factors has been used as a lens when analysing the findings of this essay. The findings of this essay suggest that key differences that made an impact on the conflicts where the amount of local support, external support and the role of social media. In order to fully understand the dynamics that shapes modern rebellions, further research on the role of globalisation and social media is conflict must be conducted.

The purpose of this study is to investigate why democracy has failed in Syria and which democratic theories that is appropriate to stop the starvation and misery in Syria. The country has been ruled by the Baath Party and the al-Assad family during four decades. The opposition could not create a common platform and they had lack of mutual trust, and no popular support. The weakness divided opposition because there are many ideologies, various ethnic and religious groups. The main theme of this study is democracy. I examine democracy from two theorists, Dahl and Putnam. I have investigated which of Dahl's democratic criteria can fulfill Syria and Putnam’s concept of social capital can explain and support Dahl's democratic criteria. Democracy is not just to remove a tyranny and by that I have investigated if there are weaknesses in the theory or difficult for people to apply the theory in reality if democracy fails. My thesis is a case study thus I see Syria as a unique case. The results have revealed that Dahl's theory for democracy is difficult to implement in Syria. There are no conditions for Dahl's theory.  Putnam's social capital revealed that there is a threat to democracy in Syria. The norms and social networks in Putnam theory can support tribal and minority. But in Syria there are the numbers of minorities and with this theory can hate and conflict increase between groups .That can create nationalism values. The results also have revealed that people do not have the will to democracy.

Le 8 mars 1963, un coup d’État en Syrie permet à une secte minoritaire marginalisée au sein du parti Baas, à idéologie radicale et révolutionnaire, de s’emparer des rênes de l’État avec l’appui des militaires et de conserver le pouvoir depuis. Ainsi la Syrie, premier pays arabe à connaître le système pluraliste parlementaire dès 1919, sera soumise à un régime militaire et autoritaire pendant presque un demi siècle. Ce mémoire vise à expliquer comment cette faction, groupusculaire à l’origine, a su profiter des circonstances et des fenêtres d’opportunité politique ouvertes par les comportements de l’élite traditionnelle syrienne, au pouvoir depuis le Mandat français, s’étant trouvée affaiblie, isolée et illégitime aux yeux de la population. Cette fragmentation exprimée par des agitations internes, avait provoqué des décisions contradictoires, des conflits d’intérêts ainsi que des divisions de nature identitaire, générationnelle, sociale, économique, militaire et politique. La Syrie a de ce fait, depuis son indépendance en 1941, été victime du jeu de son élite, un jeu dont ce mémoire est consacré à étudier la dynamique. Cette étude, qui définit le concept de l’élite théoriquement, s’appuie sur l’état des liens entre élites, l’envergure et les modes de leur circulation, pour confirmer qu’une élite fragmentée s’affaibli, perd sa légitimité et mène la société à l’instabilité. Ceci soutien l’hypothèse centrale de l’étude que la fragmentation de l’élite syrienne traditionnelle a ouvert des fenêtres d’opportunité politique devant le parti Baas, minoritaire et radical, qui a su les saisir pour conquérir le pouvoir. / On March 8, 1963, a coup in Syria allows a marginalized minority sect, of radical and revolutionary ideologies within the Baath Party, to conquer the reins of State with military support; and to stay in power ever since. Thus, Syria -the first Arab country to experience the pluralist parliamentary system since 1919, will be subject to a military and authoritarian regime for almost half a century. This thesis aims to explain how this minority faction took advantage of the circumstances and the windows of political opportunity that have opened because of the weakness of the traditional elite in power since the French mandate, due to its fragmentation that led to its isolation and illegitimacy in the eyes of people. This fragmentation manifested by internal unrests, has resulted in contradicting decisions, conflicts of interests and division of nature in identity, generational, social, economical, military and political aspects –all at once. Hence, since its independence in 1941, Syria was a victim of its elites’ game -a game this thesis is devoted to study its dynamics. The study that defines the concept of elite theory, while focusing on the state of relation between the elites and the extent and patterns of their circulation, in order to confirm that a weakened fragmented elite, loses its legitimacy and leads the society to instability. This supports the main hypothesis of the study that the fragmentation of traditional Syrian elite has opened windows of opportunities that the Baath Party, a radical minority, was able to seize power through.

Le 8 mars 1963, un coup d’État en Syrie permet à une secte minoritaire marginalisée au sein du parti Baas, à idéologie radicale et révolutionnaire, de s’emparer des rênes de l’État avec l’appui des militaires et de conserver le pouvoir depuis. Ainsi la Syrie, premier pays arabe à connaître le système pluraliste parlementaire dès 1919, sera soumise à un régime militaire et autoritaire pendant presque un demi siècle. Ce mémoire vise à expliquer comment cette faction, groupusculaire à l’origine, a su profiter des circonstances et des fenêtres d’opportunité politique ouvertes par les comportements de l’élite traditionnelle syrienne, au pouvoir depuis le Mandat français, s’étant trouvée affaiblie, isolée et illégitime aux yeux de la population. Cette fragmentation exprimée par des agitations internes, avait provoqué des décisions contradictoires, des conflits d’intérêts ainsi que des divisions de nature identitaire, générationnelle, sociale, économique, militaire et politique. La Syrie a de ce fait, depuis son indépendance en 1941, été victime du jeu de son élite, un jeu dont ce mémoire est consacré à étudier la dynamique. Cette étude, qui définit le concept de l’élite théoriquement, s’appuie sur l’état des liens entre élites, l’envergure et les modes de leur circulation, pour confirmer qu’une élite fragmentée s’affaibli, perd sa légitimité et mène la société à l’instabilité. Ceci soutien l’hypothèse centrale de l’étude que la fragmentation de l’élite syrienne traditionnelle a ouvert des fenêtres d’opportunité politique devant le parti Baas, minoritaire et radical, qui a su les saisir pour conquérir le pouvoir. / On March 8, 1963, a coup in Syria allows a marginalized minority sect, of radical and revolutionary ideologies within the Baath Party, to conquer the reins of State with military support; and to stay in power ever since. Thus, Syria -the first Arab country to experience the pluralist parliamentary system since 1919, will be subject to a military and authoritarian regime for almost half a century. This thesis aims to explain how this minority faction took advantage of the circumstances and the windows of political opportunity that have opened because of the weakness of the traditional elite in power since the French mandate, due to its fragmentation that led to its isolation and illegitimacy in the eyes of people. This fragmentation manifested by internal unrests, has resulted in contradicting decisions, conflicts of interests and division of nature in identity, generational, social, economical, military and political aspects –all at once. Hence, since its independence in 1941, Syria was a victim of its elites’ game -a game this thesis is devoted to study its dynamics. The study that defines the concept of elite theory, while focusing on the state of relation between the elites and the extent and patterns of their circulation, in order to confirm that a weakened fragmented elite, loses its legitimacy and leads the society to instability. This supports the main hypothesis of the study that the fragmentation of traditional Syrian elite has opened windows of opportunities that the Baath Party, a radical minority, was able to seize power through.