The thesis deals with the US mortgage crisis of 2008. The mortgage crisis, the following financial crisis and the debt crisis have affected billions of people around the world. It has been widely covered in literature. This thesis, however, takes a different approach. It analyses the crisis form the point of view of law and economics, looking for overlaps between those disciplines. The author does not accept the divide between law and economics. It is necessary to consider both views in order to understand the crisis. This work does not seek causes of the crisis primarily in the banks and the lack of regulation, as is common view. Rather, this thesis looks for systemic failures and root causes. It focuses on monetary policy (especially the US Fed), the regulatory institutions, bank management and the role of credit rating agencies and exotic financial instruments. In the first part of the work, the author looks at possible causes in different areas: Monetary policy and global trade imbalances, regulation of the mortgage market and government support of affordable housing, banks and their management (corporate governance), regulation and deregulation of the banking sector (with emphasis on the functioning of regulatory institutions, their legal basis and historical context), so-called securitization and...

The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China's exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second, in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China's exports. Third, in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China's exports further. Fourth, China's foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.

Under våren 2019 drabbades bankvärlden av nyheten om att penningtvätt förekommit under en längre tid i en av de svenska storbankerna. Diskussionerna i media har varit många och frågan har ställts hur banken ska gå vidare från missödet. Något som inte uppmärksammats i media är hur kunderna påverkas, som är bankens inkomstkälla, av en sådan händelse. Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka om bankkunderna i Dalarna påverkas vid bankkrisen penningtvätt. Tidigare forskning indikerar att en bankkris påverkar kunder så pass mycket att förtroendet minskar och de väljer att byta bank. För att undersöka om penningtvätt har liknande inverkan på kunderna utformades en enkät som totalt 95 respondenter besvarade. Resultatet togs fram med hjälp av statistiska metoder och en av slutsatserna som kunnat dras är att förtroendet påverkas om det förekommer penningtvätt inom banken, men inte tillräckligt mycket för att byta bank. / In the spring of 2019, the world received the news that one of the major Swedish banks had been laundering money for quite some time. There has been discussion in the media over the last year about how the bank will be able to move forward after this. A question that has not yet been addressed in the media is how this crisis affects the opinions and actions of the bank’s customers in Dalarna. Earlier research indicates that a crisis in the banking world affects a bank’s credibility to the extent that the customers choose to change banks. To find out if this crisis regarding money laundering has a similar effect, a survey was created, and a total of 95 people answered. Statistical methods were used to get the results, and they show that the general opinion regarding the bank’s credibility indeed was affected, but not enough to make the customers change banks.

The thesis focuses on Cyprus financial crisis which began in 2012 and on reform tools used by Cyprus government under the Economic Adjustment Programme in order to fix consequential fiscal and monetary imbalances in the economy. Thesis provides description of main factors leading Cyprus in the crisis and broadly analyses reform tools under the EAP. Thesis positively valuates government success in implementing EAP reform tools and describes way the program was financed. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment and external balance are analyzed and strong influence of reform measures mainly on development of unemployment and external balance is highlighted. Cyprus banking crisis is also a first case of using banks bail-in as a tool to fix financial market imbalances. Shortly discussed is role of Cyprus bank crisis in bail-out to bail-in paradigm change and possible influence of bail-in measures on creditors' behavior and stability of financial institutions.

Orientador: Daniela Renata Cantane / Resumo: Este trabalho utiliza um modelo epidemiológico para analisar o comportamento de crises bancárias que possuem origem em um determinado país e são propagadas para outros países atingindo proporções mundiais. O modelo matemático epidemiológico Suscetíveis, Infectados e Recuperados (SIR) empregado permite simular a dinâmica da crise separando os países em três estados: suscetíveis, infectados e recuperados, em cada instante de tempo, além de prever a extensão da crise. Os parâmetros do modelo são obtidos da literatura para cada país envolvido e a crise segue uma dinâmica diferente dependendo do país de origem. Uma breve descrição da importância dos bancos em nível macroeconônico e suas funções básicas são apresentadas. Também são apresentadas algumas definições desta crise, denominada crise sistêmica, bem como os canais de transmissão de como um banco com problemas financeiros, denominado infectado, transmite esta condição para outro. Considerada a possibilidade de uma crise sistêmica, o Banco Central deve intervir nos bancos com problemas. Esta tarefa pode ser modelada como um problema de controle ótimo inserindo uma variável de controle no modelo SIR, que representa a intervenção do Banco Central, e uma função objetivo, em que o custo dessa intervenção deve ser minimizado. O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar um modelo de otimização aplicado ao risco bancário e propor o método heurístico \textit{Variable Neighbourhood Search} (VNS) para resolução do problema de controle ótimo... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: This work uses an epidemiological model to analyze the behavior of bank crises that originate in a given country and are propagated to other countries reaching worldwide proportions. The epidemiological mathematical model Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) used allows to simulate the dynamics of the crisis separating the countries in three states: susceptible, infected and recovered, in each instant of time, in addition to predicting the extent of the crisis. The model parameters are obtained from the literature for each country involved and the crisis follows a different dynamic depending on the country of origin. A brief description of the importance of banks at the macroeconomic level and their basic functions is presented. Some definitions of this crisis, called systemic crisis, are also presented, as well as the transmission channels of how a bank with financial problems, called infected, transmits this condition to another. Considering the possibility of a systemic crisis, the Central Bank must intervene in troubled banks. This task can be xiv modeled as an optimal control problem by inserting a control variable in the SIR model, which represents Central Bank intervention, and an objective function involving the cost of this intervention and must be minimized. The objective of this work is to investigate an optimization model applied to banking risk and propose the Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) heuristic method to solve the proposed optimal control problem. ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

The global bank crisis between 2008 and 2013 posed a great threat against many organizations globally, especially towards small-medium enterprises (SMEs), which several researchers have investigated through quantitative studies. However, few studies have explored the strategic decisions made by SMEs regarding internationalization processes and international work during this time, beyond numbers. Based on previous research, this qualitative study aims to examine and provide insights on the impact of the bank crisis on strategies and processes used by Swedish SMEs during the crisis. Through a multiple case study approach, seven semi-structured interviews with Swedish SMEs in different industries were conducted. This was followed by theories, models and frameworks related to internationalization motives and processes, risk management and crisis management. The findings revealed limited information on strategies used by SMEs during the crisis, however, much of the empirical material could be related to and identified in the presented theory. The observed SMEs demonstrated remarkable resilience, exhibiting minimal vulnerability to the crisis – an interesting discovery considering previous research. Moreover, they underscored the significance of maintaining a financial buffer and maintaining a keen awareness of global circumstances, to avoid potential future crises. Additionally, several new aspects of the initial topic emerged during the interviews; transparency, exchange rates, cost management, and business relations, which could be of interest for future research. The thesis explains the impact of the bank crisis on the examined SMEs, delving into the key strategies and processes used to sustain international operations. This research offers valuable insights to both academics and industry professionals on how to navigate turbulent waters as a Swedish SME during a global bank crisis.

國際研究中雖有針對國家級的銀行脆弱性作分析，卻並未定義或預測台灣系統性危機，本研究在這樣的背景下，決定建構台灣本土的銀行業預警系統，建立銀行危機的領先指標，希望不只順應國際潮流，更能發展適合台灣特殊性的模型。本研究利用貝氏網路模型的特殊性: (1)事後值(2)機率特性，以個體化資料著手，建構一總體性模型。故研究者能確切了解個別銀行財務狀況，對個別銀行發出預警。事後值的特性使研究者能同時考慮多項財務比率。另外，利用機率特性，可幫助研究者了解危機的程度，且能做總體的延伸運用。 本研究發展出兩種方法建構總體模型。第一種為百分比法，以危機銀行佔總銀行個數的比率為基礎；第二種為加權平均法，讓機率值高者有較大權數，機率小者有較小權數去建立一加權平均機率值。 將本研究的推論結果和「台灣金融服務業聯合總會委託計畫-台灣金融危機領先指標之研究」比較，顯示本模型的兩種方法皆與危機之發生有相同趨勢，而考慮危機訊號的設定後，方法二加權平均法顯然具備較佳的預測結果。此外相較總體面衝擊產生的危機，本模型在預測能力上，對來自銀行個體面造成的危機預測明顯較優異。 / International organizations defined and predicted country bank crises events without Taiwan, but they happened in Taiwan in the past twenty years. We construct the early warning system for banking crises in Taiwan and develop the specific model suited to our country. Using Bayesian Model’s specialities: (1) posterior value; (2) probability, we build a systematic model based on microeconomic data. So researcher can understand all financial conditions and predict the financial distresses of individual banks. The concept of posteriority lets researchers can consider a lot of financial ratio at the same time. The characteristic of probability makes researcher to extend the model to macroeconomic. We develop two methods to build systematic model. One is Percentage method which is based on the percentage of financial distress banks to all banks. The other one is weighted average method which used large weight in financial distress bank and small weight in financial sound banks. Comparing our results with the report that Taiwan Financial Services Roundtable issued in 2009, our methods have distress trends which link with crisis directly. But weighted average method has a better predict power than percentage method after considering the signals of distress we specify. Besides, our model has a stronger predictive power in crises from individual effect than crises from macroeconomic shocks.

This diploma thesis deals with mechanisms which can be used to resolve crisis of a bank. The first chapter introduces the reader to essential theoretical background and basis for following chapters. The second chapter describes and analyzes measures used by governments to support their financial sectors in 2008 -- 2012. The first part of third chapter deals with insolvency regimes for banks and general description of new recovery and resolution regimes. The other part of third chapter contains qualitative analysis of recovery and resolution regimes adopted by European Union member states in the form of BRRD. Final chapter analyzes on the sample of ten systematically important banks applicability of bail-in tool to resolution of their crisis.