The financial crisis of 2007-2009 had divesting effects around the globe. Many financial institutions and government officials failed to see the build up of problems predicting the crisis and hence failed to take actions to keep the crisis from breaking out. Thus, it is important to see if the emerging problems could have been identified in advance in order to develop types of analysis that could help us avoid future crises. A full investigation of such possibilities will require many different studies taking different approaches. This dissertation contributes to that collective effort by investigating the extent to which balance sheet information could have been used to identify the emerging problems. We implement our research strategy by analyzing what types of balance sheet information did the best job of explaining how hard different major financial institutions were hit during the crisis. We constructed a large data set of financial variables from the financial reports of financial institutions over the years 2002 to 2011. We used this data to developed models to predict the damage to an individual firm when a systemic crisis occurred based on its financial position and performance over varying time periods and relative to other institutions’ characteristics. We used changes in stock market prices as our measure of performance. We found that the financial leverage ratio and the mismatch between current assets and current liabilities are the most significant ratios to predict the degree of stock market declines each institution would face if a systemic crisis occurred. We quantified the degree of the financial leverage and current ratios in two different ways, an average level and accumulated time-weighted rate of change over different lags of periods using two different estimation techniques. We found that the financial leverage and current ratios can be used as early warning signals based on both the multivariable fractional polynomials estimation technique and structural equation modeling. However, the out-of-sample tests showed that the imbalance between current assets and current liability would be the only significant predictor of the changes in stock market prices. The test confirmed that the changes in pre-crisis stock prices are less sensitive to the leverage ratio but more sensitive during crisis.

The aim of the research is to analyze the contributions of critical theory of society of Habermas, especially the habermasian concept of systemic crisis, for understanding the dynamics of contemporary environmental crisis. It is intended to investigate the contemporary environmental crisis, from the reconstruction of concepts of crisis and the nature and understanding the formation and characteristics of tardocapitalistas societies through the habermasian concept of systemic crisis. This research is fundamental or theoretical nature and uses the historical-critical method. It begins with a historical reconstruction of the concept of environmental crisis, from the ideas of crisis and nature, to analyze the current state of debate on the environmental crisis, by submitting the approaches of the scientific literature on the subject. Following is presented the concept of a systemic crisis of Habermas, built as part of its analysis of tardocapitalistas societies, in order to test the hypothesis that this concept contributes to the advancement of epistemological treatment on the environmental crisis. The relevance of this research urges the need to improve the debate on finding solutions to environmental problems that affect the welfare of human beings. The intended result is to an understanding of the environmental crisis, able to contribute to their proper treatment. / O objetivo geral da pesquisa é analisar as contribuições da teoria crítica da sociedade de Habermas, especialmente o conceito habermasiano de crise sistêmica, para a compreensão da dinâmica da crise ambiental contemporânea. Pretende-se investigar a crise ambiental contemporânea, a partir da reconstrução dos conceitos de crise e de natureza e pela compreensão da formação e das características de sociedades tardocapitalistas, mediante o conceito habermasiano de crise sistêmica. Esta pesquisa tem natureza fundamental ou teórica e utiliza o método histórico-crítico. Inicia com reconstrução histórica do conceito de crise ambiental, a partir das ideias de crise e de natureza, para analisar o estado atual do debate em torno da crise ambiental, mediante a apresentação dos enfoques da produção científica sobre o tema. Na sequência, é apresentado o conceito de crise sistêmica de Habermas, construído no âmbito de sua análise das sociedades tardocapitalistas, com o fim de testar a hipótese de que este conceito contribui para o avanço do tratamento epistemológico sobre a crise ambiental. A relevância desta pesquisa incita a necessidade de aperfeiçoar o debate, em busca de soluções para os problemas ambientais que afetam o bem-estar dos seres humanos. O resultado pretendido consiste em uma compreensão da crise ambiental, capaz de contribuir para o seu adequado tratamento.

Orientador: Daniela Renata Cantane / Resumo: Este trabalho utiliza um modelo epidemiológico para analisar o comportamento de crises bancárias que possuem origem em um determinado país e são propagadas para outros países atingindo proporções mundiais. O modelo matemático epidemiológico Suscetíveis, Infectados e Recuperados (SIR) empregado permite simular a dinâmica da crise separando os países em três estados: suscetíveis, infectados e recuperados, em cada instante de tempo, além de prever a extensão da crise. Os parâmetros do modelo são obtidos da literatura para cada país envolvido e a crise segue uma dinâmica diferente dependendo do país de origem. Uma breve descrição da importância dos bancos em nível macroeconônico e suas funções básicas são apresentadas. Também são apresentadas algumas definições desta crise, denominada crise sistêmica, bem como os canais de transmissão de como um banco com problemas financeiros, denominado infectado, transmite esta condição para outro. Considerada a possibilidade de uma crise sistêmica, o Banco Central deve intervir nos bancos com problemas. Esta tarefa pode ser modelada como um problema de controle ótimo inserindo uma variável de controle no modelo SIR, que representa a intervenção do Banco Central, e uma função objetivo, em que o custo dessa intervenção deve ser minimizado. O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar um modelo de otimização aplicado ao risco bancário e propor o método heurístico \textit{Variable Neighbourhood Search} (VNS) para resolução do problema de controle ótimo... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: This work uses an epidemiological model to analyze the behavior of bank crises that originate in a given country and are propagated to other countries reaching worldwide proportions. The epidemiological mathematical model Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) used allows to simulate the dynamics of the crisis separating the countries in three states: susceptible, infected and recovered, in each instant of time, in addition to predicting the extent of the crisis. The model parameters are obtained from the literature for each country involved and the crisis follows a different dynamic depending on the country of origin. A brief description of the importance of banks at the macroeconomic level and their basic functions is presented. Some definitions of this crisis, called systemic crisis, are also presented, as well as the transmission channels of how a bank with financial problems, called infected, transmits this condition to another. Considering the possibility of a systemic crisis, the Central Bank must intervene in troubled banks. This task can be xiv modeled as an optimal control problem by inserting a control variable in the SIR model, which represents Central Bank intervention, and an objective function involving the cost of this intervention and must be minimized. The objective of this work is to investigate an optimization model applied to banking risk and propose the Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) heuristic method to solve the proposed optimal control problem. ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

La régulation bancaire doit être vue comme le fait d'encadrer et de contrôler l'activité bancaire, en la soumettant au respect des diverses normes, pour en maîtriser les risques afin de préserver la sécurité des déposants, la stabilité du système financier et les grands équilibres économiques. Pour arriver à cette fin, la régulation bancaire s'appuie essentiellement sur la réglementation et la supervision.Les systèmes bancaires domestiques étant devenus de plus en plus interdépendants, il apparaît nécessaire de faire face aux menaces de la même manière, de façon coordonnée au niveau international ou, à tout le moins, au niveau régional. C'est ainsi que la CEMAC et l'UEMOA se sont dotés au lendemain des crises de 1990 d'un dispositif de régulation marqué par une pléthore de réglementations et des organes de supervision communautaires. Depuis la crise de la dette survenue en Europe, la régulation de l'activité bancaire a évolué dans cette région avec la création de l'Union bancaire. Ceci dit, la supervision des établissements bancaires a été confiée à la Banque Centrale Européenne au sein de l' UE bien qu'elle demeure partagée avec les autorités nationales. Il s'agira pour nous, dans le présent travail, de comparer les dispositifs de régulation en vigueur dans les régions de la CEMAC, de l'UEMOA, de l'UE. On verra comment les régions de l'Afrique Centrale , de l'Afrique de l'Ouest et de l'Europe organisent la régulation bancaire en vue de préserver la stabilité des banques. Pour y parvenir il faudra comparer les différents organes chargés de la régulation et les principales règles de régulation qui existent dans ces régions. / Banking regulation should be seen as the act of monitoring and controling banking, by subjecting the compliance with various standards to control risks to preserve the security of depositors , the stability of the financial system and major economic balances. To achieve this, the banking regulation is based mainly on regulation and supervision. Domestic banking systems have become increasingly interdependent, it is necessary to deal with threats in the same way , in a coordinated manner at the international level or at least at the regional level . Thus CEMAC and UEMOA have adopted in the aftermath of the 1990 crisis a control device marked by a plethora of regulations and community oversight bodies . Since the debt crisis in Europe, the regulation of banking has evolved in this region with the creation of the banking union . That said, the supervision of banks has been entrusted to the European Central Bank within the EU although it remains shared with the national authorities.In the course of this work, our task will be to compare the existing control devices in the CEMAC region , UEMOA , EU . We shall review and find how the regions of Central Africa, West Africa and Europe organize banking regulation in order to preserve the stability of their banks. To achieve this goal, a comparison of the various bodies responsible for the regulation and the main regulatory rules that exist in these regions are deemed necessary.

Pour remédier aux nombreuses insuffisances et défaillances constatées dans le système de régulation et de surveillance du secteur financier, post crise, de nombreuses réformes institutionnelles ont été réalisées à l'initiative des organismes et autorités de régulation bancaire et financière aussi bien au niveau national qu'au niveau international. Le Royaume du Maroc, en vertu de son statut avancé, signé en octobre 2008, a fait un réel effort pour réduire les différences entre les législations marocaine et européenne. Il a consenti à se rapprocher des normes européennes sur le plan législatif et réglementaire avec l'objectif d'être intégré au marché intérieur européen et de disposer d'une économie plus efficace. Toutefois, le système bancaire marocain ne semble pas adhérer aux changements induits par ce travail de convergence, si non il y a encore du chemin à faire dans ce sens et une convergence totale demandera, incontestablement, "des années"! Cette thèse tente d'examiner les difficultés d'adaptation des techniques de régulation européenne au système financier marocain à travers notamment, le système de régulation des banques marocaines, l'encadrement des mécanismes relevant du shadow banking et des opérations du marché des produits dérivés. Elle met l'accent sur les nombreux défis que cette industrie aura à relever dans les années à venir. Après une analyse des principales difficultés d'adaptation des techniques de régulation européennes au système financier marocain (Partie I), quelques solutions sont proposées, à savoir la finance islamique comme une finance complémentaire à la finance conventionnelle, l'inclusion financière comme une solution ayant pour finalité la réduction de la pauvreté et la création de postes d'emplois et le crowdfunding comme moyen de financement par le public de projet de création d'entreprise et solution au resserrement de crédit constaté après la crise de 2008 (Partie II). / The extent of the 2008 financial crisis' diffusion gave rise to strenuous and far-reaching debates about international financial stability. In fact, the question of financial instituions' social responsability seen as a financial stability vector has become the center of every debate. Financial instituions' governance and risk management devices have not only highlighted the vulnerability of the banking system, but also its inability to deal with liquidity requirements. With no doubt,banks have not been cautions enough to evaluate the risks they were taking. After the crisis, many institutional reforms were carried out at the initiative of banking and financial regulatory authorities, both at national and international levels, to tackle the numerous shortcomings and deficiencies found in the financial sector's regulation and supervision system. Under the Advanced Status, signed in October 2008, the Kingdom of Morocco has tried hard to reduce the gap between the Moroccan and the European legislations. In fact, it has agreed to move closer to European standards on the legislative and regulatory level aiming to be more integrated into the European internal market and to have a more efficient economy. Nevertheless, the banking system doesn't seem to adhere to the changes that were induced by this convergence work. Thus, there is still some way to go in this direction, not to mention that such a total convergence would take "years"! This thesis attempts to examine the difficulties of adapting European regulatory techniques to the Moroccan financial system, particularly through the Moroccan banks' control system and the supervision of mechanisms that take place under the "Shadow Banking" and the derivative market. It emphasizes all of the challenges this industry will have to face in the coming years. After an analysis of the main difficulties of adapting European regulatory techniques to the Moroccan financial system (Part I), some solutions are suggested,namely Islamic finance as a complement to the conventional one, financial inclusion as a solution aiming to reduce poverty and create jobs, and "Crowdfunding" as a financing tool for the mass individual investors to back start up projects, and a solution to the credit tightening phenomenon after the crisis of 2008 (Part II).

L’objectif de cette thèse est de présenter la Banque islamique comme réponse à l’instabilité de l’économie de crédit. La lecture de la crise des subprimes au prisme du modèle post- keynésien de Minsky-Kindleberger permet d’affirmer que l’Hypothèse d’Instabilité Financière (HIF) débouche sur des propositions de gestion des crises financières. Car, si les crises sont inhérentes au capitalisme, il devient nécessaire et urgent de mettre en place des institutions à même de gérer les perturbations financières. Les réformes monétaires proposées au fil du temps par des éco- nomistes et le comité Bâle III posent le problème du développement bancaire. Dans le cas où la monnaie est séparée du crédit financier, soit le cas des reformes monétaires proposées par Fisher (1935) et ses disciples, nous rencontrons le problème du multiplicateur de crédit alors que le risque systémique est faible et il y a remise en cause de la nécessité du prêteur en dernier ressort dans ce système. Tandis que si la monnaie n’est pas séparée du crédit financier, cas des réformes monétaire proposées par des instruments de gestion tels que ceux proposées par Minsky (1982) ; Kindleberger (1989) ; Aglietta et Moutot (1993) ; Aglietta (2011) et le comité Bâle III, le risque systémique per- siste toujours. Dans ce dernier cas, c’est le prêteur en dernier ressort qui est le plus susceptible d’assumer l’objectif de la stabilité du système financier dans son ensemble en émettant de la liquidi- té ultime. L’étude comparative de deux cas de développement de banques islamiques, celui de l’Arabie Saoudite et celui du Pakistan, a montré que ces deux systèmes bancaires ont été confrontés au même problème que celui de la finance occidentale : le développement bancaire. Du fait que, si la monnaie est séparée du crédit financier – cas du Pakistan – les Banques islamiques sont à la fois moins vulnérables au risque systémique mais sont moins performantes. Alors que si la monnaie n’est pas séparée du crédit financier – cas de l’Arabie Saoudite – les banques islamiques sont plus vulnérables aux risques systémiques mais sont plus performantes. A contrario, même si la Banque islamique ne répond pas au risque systémique de l’Hypothèse de l’Instabilité de l’Économie de Crédit, elle résiste tout de même à la crise systémique de cette hypothèse du fait qu’elle ne peut en aucun cas conduire à une crise systémique comme celle des subprimes. Car, en contraste avec l’instrument du système financier conventionnel, les spécificités de l’instrument du système finan- cier islamique l’amènent à être moins vulnérable à la crise systémique. / The goal of this PhD is to analyze the Islamic bank model as a possible solution to the credit economy instability. Reading the subprime crisis through the post Keynesian model of Minsky-Kindleberger lenses allows us to assert that the Financial Instability Hypothesis (HIF) leads to proposals for financial crises management. If crises are inherent in capitalism, it becomes necessary and urgent to set up institutions able of managing financial perturbations. The monetary reforms suggested over time by economists and the Bale III committee too raises the problem of banking development. If money is separated from the financial credit, as in the example of Fisher (1935) and his followers monetary reforms shows, we run into the problem of the credit multiplier while the systemic risk is weak and the necessity of the lender of last resort in this system is questioned. Whereas, if money is not separated from the financial credit, as in the case of monetary reforms proposed by instruments of management such as those suggested by Minsky (1982), Kindleberger, Aglietta and Moutot (1993), Aglietta (2011) and Bale III, the systemic risk persists and this is, after all, the lender in the last resort who may assume the objective of the financial system’s stability in general by uttering of the ultimate liquidity. The development study of the two cases of Islamic banks, those in Saudi Arabia and those in Pakistan, showed the confrontation of these banks of the same problems noticed in the western finance. In fact, if money is separated from the financial credit, which is the case in Pakistan, Islamic banks are less vulnerable to systemic risk and are less efficient. While if money is not separated from the financial credit, as in Saudi Arabia, Islamic banks are more vulnerable to systemic risk and more efficient. However, even if the Islamic bank does not respond to the systemic risk of the Hypothesis of the Credit Economy’s instability, it answers as even to the systemic crises of this hypothesis. Hence, in all cases, it cannot lead to a systemic crisis similar to the subprime one. This is due to the fact that specification of the Islamic financial system instrument, in contrast to the instrument of the conventional financial system, is less vulnerable to the systemic crisis.