In this thesis we analyse the impact of uncertainty shocks in the Scandinavian banking sector. We apply the spillover approach developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009; 2012; 2014), followed by network analysis. Furthermore, the dynamics of uncertainty shocks are examined by applying a quantile regression approach. We study the effects of financial uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and housing market uncertainty on the seven banks Swedbank, Nordea, SEB, Svenska Handelsbanken, DNB, Danske Bank and Jyske Bank. We study these uncertainties on global, regional and local level between 2005 and 2018. We find that the Swedish banks are greater emitters of contagion, compared to the Norwegian and Danish banks, where SEB and Nordea are the banks emitting and receiving the most spillovers. Moreover, the connectedness within the banking sector tend to increase in times of heightened uncertainty, such as during the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Global financial uncertainty is shown to affect the Scandinavian banks the most, followed by regional and local financial uncertainty. The same pattern can be seen for economic policy uncertainty, although at lower levels of spillovers. Reversely, housing market uncertainty is seen to increase going from global, regional to local, where the impact of local housing market uncertainty has a considerable amount of spillovers to the Scandinavian banks. Geopolitical risk is shown to have limited spillovers to the Scandinavian banks. The result of the quantile regressions suggests that financial uncertainty is affecting the banks’ returns negatively during bearish market conditions, whilst the relationship is positive during bullish market conditions. Moreover, we find that financial uncertainty is a quicker transmitter of spillovers than housing market uncertainty. Finally, we conclude that uncertainty shocks affecting the Scandinavian banks negatively tend to take effect instantaneously, while the effects of positive shocks are delayed.

The aim of the thesis is analysing and evaluating the situation in each region through macroeconomical factors. First chapter is focused on Europe. The most interesting part of this chapter is the fiscal policy. Second chapter provides insight to fascinating Asia and its huge rise in recent past. Third chapter provides analysis of development of interesting economical values in America. Last fourth chapter includes econometrical analysis of relationships between time series of macroeconomical values and stock prices of representative bank shares from all regions enriched by equations for forecasting of future stock prices.

O objetivo desta dissertação foi investigar se a Rentabilidade sobre o Patrimônio Líquido (ROE) do setor bancário privado atuante no Brasil foi maior do que a dos setores não-financeiros privados no período de 1997 a 2004. Partiu-se de uma comparação geral para comparações mais detalhadas a fim de se chegar a respostas mais consistentes e verificar se o que vale para o todo vale para as partes que o compõem. Considerou-se tanto o ROE legal quanto o ROE ajustado pelos efeitos da inflação. Analisou-se também a rentabilidade dos cinco maiores bancos privados brasileiros comparativamente a seus pares de países desenvolvidos selecionados. Por fim, foi analisado se a rentabilidade auferida pelo setor bancário privado foi maior do que seu custo de capital próprio, ou seja, se seu spread econômico foi positivo.Utilizou-se, como medida para comparação, a média dos ROE’s e o seu desvio padrão. Para estimação do custo do capital próprio foi utilizado o CAPM tendo como benchmark as taxas dos EUA adaptadas ao risco Brasil. Os resultados da pesquisa evidenciaram que, na média, a rentabilidade do setor bancário privado foi maior do que a dos setores não-financeiros privados e apresentou menor volatilidade, tanto pelo ROE legal quanto pelo ROE ajustado pelos efeitos da inflação, neste caso, no entanto, as diferenças foram menores. Na comparação com os maiores bancos de países selecionados, evidenciou-se que o ROE médio dos maiores Bancos Privados brasileiros não destoa de seus pares de países desenvolvidos. Quanto à questão do spread econômico, considerou-se o ROE ajustado tanto pelo IGP-M quanto pelo IPCA. Em ambos os casos, o spread econômico do setor bancário privado só foi positivo em 1999. No período de 1997 a 2004, o spread econômico foi de –6,4%, quando se utilizou o IGP-M, e de -4,6%, quando se utilizou o IPCA. Concluindo, embora o setor bancário privado, na média, tenha apresentado Rentabilidade sobre o Patrimônio Líquido maior do que os setores privados não-financeiros privados, essa rentabilidade não foi suficiente para cobrir o custo do capital próprio. Dessa forma, na média, os Bancos não têm conseguido criar valor para os acionistas. / The objective of this thesis was to investigate if the return on equity (ROE) from the private banking sector that operates in Brazil was bigger than the non-financial private sectors in the period from 1997 to 2004. It began from a general comparison and evolved to more specific comparisons in order to reach more consistent answers and to analyze if what is true for the whole is true for the parts that complete it. It was considered both the legal ROE and the adjusted ROE by the inflation effects. It was also analyzed the ROE of the five largest Brazilian private banks comparatively to theirs peers from developed countries selected. At last, it was analyzed if the ROE of the private banking sector was bigger than its own capital cost, that is, if its economic spread was positive. It was used, as comparison measure, the average of the ROE’s and its standard deviation. The CAPM having as benchmark the USA rates adapted to the Brazil´s risk was used for estimating the cost of own capital. The results of the research showed that, on the average, the ROE of the private banking sector was bigger than the non-financial sectors and presented less volatility, as for the legal ROE as for the adjusted ROE by the inflation effects, in this case, however, the differences were lower. In the comparison with the biggest banks from selected countries, it was showed that the average ROE of the biggest Brazilian private banks wasn’t different from their developed countries peers. Regarding economic spread, it was considered as the ROE adjusted by the IGP-M as by the IPCA. In both cases the private banking sector economic spread was positive only in 1999. In the period from 1997 to 2004, the economic spread was –6,4%, when IGP-M was used, and –4,6%, when IPCA was used. To sum up, although the private banking sector, on the average, showed ROE bigger than the non-financial private sectors, this ROE was not enough to cover the own capital cost. In this way, on average, the banks have not created value for their stockholders.

<p>This study investigates the capital structure pattern on the Nordic Banking sector, and analyzes if the macroeconomics conditions have an impact on it. The topic is timely and relevant as the credit crises, which has reached the real economy strongly, appears to lead to a restructure of the capital structure of the firms. To achieve my objective I have observed the debt-to-equity ratio in the period 2003-2008. I conducted correlation analysis and further regression analysis to search for a relationship between the variables and then a cause-effect relation between the macroeconomic measures and the capital structure. In order to understand and select the macroeconomics measures to this investigation I have reviewed well known theories and studies about the subject.</p><p> </p><p>I have found a stable debt-to-equity ratio on the book value; however to the market value the figures indicate a decrease in equity value, especially in the last year. In order to search for a macroeconomic relationship, I have developed hypotheses and examined them to select the most suitable variables to a regression analysis. The choice was the change in the GDP, the interest rate and tax rate.</p><p> </p><p>The results revealed that the book value is better explained by these measures than the market value. They demonstrate statistical significantly, highlighting the change in GDP. Even if the findings suggest that there is a correlation between the macroeconomic condition and the capital structure, the analyses suggest only moderate relationship, that should be further investigate.</p>

<p>The reason for this study of the Swedish banking sector is that we suspect that collusion is at hand in the sector. We ground our suspiciousness on the extensive revenues and high retail banking fees. Swedish banking fees are the highest in EU. Based on this and that the banking sector is oligopolistic with only a few significant competitors we found it interesting to apply theories concerning tacit collusion on the banking sector. Our main conclusions are that cooperative pricing could be successful for banks since prices are a poor means of competition whereas customers focus on service quality instead of price. There is little asymmetry among the established banks and they cooperate through a number of systems. Since they cooperate through these systems the banks experience similar cost pressures and information is available. The Swedish bankers’ association plays an important role in the exchange of information. Thus, the facilitating features are strong and cooperative pricing can be profitable. An effective banking sector is essential for an economy and has a central role in the society as a whole. The presence of collusion can therefore have important implications, not only for the customers but also for the society. Efficiency costs also appear when collusion is at hand and can exceed the society’s welfare losses.</p>

The authors’ outline of the evolution of the banking sector development assesses governmental approaches to bank regulation and supervision and is a basic regulatory frame-work, needed to reduce bank failures; it characterises steps of the evolution of the banking sector and trends of its development. The discussion focuses on: 1. Initial forming and restructuring of the banks, changes in the commercial banking sector and the reorganising of the banking systems; 2. Change of the role of the national bank and the mode of its intervention; 3. Dynamics of the banking system development in Georgia and the risks of banking activities. The main findings suggest that 1. The Georgian banks overcame the crisis of the 90’s because of having portfolios of assets in foreign currencies and performing of the national banks function in the “lender of last resort”; 2. Regulatory and supervisory practices in Georgia develop from strict regulations to a deregulation that is most effective in promoting good performance and stability in the banking sector; 3. Alongside with the increase of banking concentration and openness the banking competition and financial risks boost too; that could be managed by further development of institutional reforms in the banking sector. There is an assess of the development and weakness of the banking sector. / Entwicklung des Bankensektors in Georgien

The reason for this study of the Swedish banking sector is that we suspect that collusion is at hand in the sector. We ground our suspiciousness on the extensive revenues and high retail banking fees. Swedish banking fees are the highest in EU. Based on this and that the banking sector is oligopolistic with only a few significant competitors we found it interesting to apply theories concerning tacit collusion on the banking sector. Our main conclusions are that cooperative pricing could be successful for banks since prices are a poor means of competition whereas customers focus on service quality instead of price. There is little asymmetry among the established banks and they cooperate through a number of systems. Since they cooperate through these systems the banks experience similar cost pressures and information is available. The Swedish bankers’ association plays an important role in the exchange of information. Thus, the facilitating features are strong and cooperative pricing can be profitable. An effective banking sector is essential for an economy and has a central role in the society as a whole. The presence of collusion can therefore have important implications, not only for the customers but also for the society. Efficiency costs also appear when collusion is at hand and can exceed the society’s welfare losses.

South Korea experienced a financial crisis in 1997 after more than 30 years of fast eco-nomic growth. During the crisis its gross domestic product (GDP) decreased sharply and many enterprises went bankrupt. The stated-owned banks in South Korea suffered huge losses and investors lost confidence in investing in the South Korean financial market. One result of the crisis reveals the weakness of the South Korean economy- government intervention in the banking sector. This paper provides the reason for the financial crisis in 1997 in the introduction sec-tion. The following section is a theoretical framework, in which we have presented two macroeconomic models: the Solow model-growth accounting formula and the Ricardo-Viner model. With empirical findings, we show how the South Korean government re-sponded after the crisis with three approaches to banking reform. We include the two macroeconomic models in the analysis of how the three approaches affected the eco-nomic growth in South Korea during the reform process in the analysis section. Finally, we conclude that the South Korean banking sector reform has provided a success and briefly discuss how China should implement the South Korean useful experiences into its ongoing process of banking sector reform.

This study investigates the capital structure pattern on the Nordic Banking sector, and analyzes if the macroeconomics conditions have an impact on it. The topic is timely and relevant as the credit crises, which has reached the real economy strongly, appears to lead to a restructure of the capital structure of the firms. To achieve my objective I have observed the debt-to-equity ratio in the period 2003-2008. I conducted correlation analysis and further regression analysis to search for a relationship between the variables and then a cause-effect relation between the macroeconomic measures and the capital structure. In order to understand and select the macroeconomics measures to this investigation I have reviewed well known theories and studies about the subject.   I have found a stable debt-to-equity ratio on the book value; however to the market value the figures indicate a decrease in equity value, especially in the last year. In order to search for a macroeconomic relationship, I have developed hypotheses and examined them to select the most suitable variables to a regression analysis. The choice was the change in the GDP, the interest rate and tax rate.   The results revealed that the book value is better explained by these measures than the market value. They demonstrate statistical significantly, highlighting the change in GDP. Even if the findings suggest that there is a correlation between the macroeconomic condition and the capital structure, the analyses suggest only moderate relationship, that should be further investigate.

This study has the objective of arguing the fact that the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) lending is developing, relevant to the evolution of the business environment and banking sector, during the period between 2001 &amp / #8211 / 2006 years. The thesis is testing this claim on two data sets. First / the financial data of CBRT during the period of 2001 - 2006 is evaluated. Then, the SME data of a Bank is evaluated. The thesis also covers the arguments on SME definition, the literature survey for SME development policies, SME lending infrastructure, the banking sector, as the main source of finance for SME, and the SME profile of Turkey. The thesis concludes on two things: The share of SMEs in the total credit volume is rising during the period between 2001 &amp / #8211 / 2006 years. And the share of medium-term credits is rising, while the short-term credits&amp / #8217 / is decreasing. In addition to these, the study criticizes the recent SME definition of KOSGEB.