Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Corporate cu~ure is the foundation of businesses today and in every way underties the way business is done. The discovery and subsequent mining of gold during the last century have shaped the gold-mining corporate cu~re; it gave birth to racial segregation and laid the foundation of the system in which the industry finds itse~ today. The purpose of this study is to uncover the deeper patterns of corporate cu~ure that drive visible behaviour and attitudes. Once the root metaphor or main undertying assumptions of the gold-mining corporate cutture have been determined, a process of multilevel, frame-breaking, radical transformation can be initiated. A 'paradigm interplay' approach, which describes cu~re as an explicit variable and an implicit root metaphor, was adopted. Within this frameworK the study aims to explore concepts and meanings of corporate cu~re in a hermeneutic fashion by uncovering the human, expressive, symbolic texture of life in a gold mine. The frameworK provided a way of thinking about organisations, not to present 1001s' or 'methods' for managing or transforming culture, but to think culturally and holistically about the process of transformation. An in-depth investigation into Schein's 'three levels of cu~re' model was necessary in order to derive at the core transformational aspect of the gold-mining corporate culture. An analysis of Schein's model indicated that behavioural characteristics are shaped and determined by undertying values, beliefs and attitudes, which are shared among members of the organisation. If not espoused, these in turn rest upon sets of undertying assumptions that are the innermost core of corporate cu~re. One such a se~ the nature of human relationships, had been identified as the main undertying theme behind the vested interests as well as ingrained paradigms that exist on both sides of a racially divided workforce. The historical background of the industry and cultural perceptions created a shared assumption set that shaped these deep-rooted, embedded mindsets, affecting human relationships significantly. The study made it clear that any transformation attempt could be possible only when one goes deeper than the stated values and norms to understand the undertying assumptions and the true nature of human relationships that drive the visible behaviour and attttudes. The central dimension of this study, the nature of human relationships, referred to the opposing concepts of individualism versus communalism. These opposing paradigms are manifested in the two main management approaches or corporate cultures that exist in South Africa. Many suggested that the acknowledgement and utilisation of the Afrocentric value system, Ubuntu, alongside a Westem individualistic corporate culture are imperative to improve relationships in general and promote humanism. This study proposed that the humane spirit of Ubuntu, a spirit of trus~ caring and respect for human dignity, should be 'married' with the Westem approach to management instead of Ubuntu being adopted as a single framework that may be perceived negatively by the current business community. Thinking culturally', the purpose phrase of this study, succeeded therefore in abandoning the eitheror kind of thinking in favour of a more holistic 'both-and' way of doing. A desired culture of trust, honesty, openness, integrity and non-<liscrimination are sought after - a morally and ethically acceptable corporate culture where empowered employees are inspired rather than driven. Transformation is about the intellectual, social, spiritual and, most important, the emotional resources of the organisation. The 'senses of awareness' that are fundamental to the spirit of Ubuntu, originate from an understanding of our own emotions and secondly the emotions of others. Emotional intelligence is emerging as a major contributor to self-regu lation and is a crucial ingredient of the transformation process of the gold-mining corporate cu~ure . The study recommends the process of transformation can be initiated by creating a focal even~ a moment of concem about the current predicament in which the organisation or, more importa~ the individual finds itse~lhimse~. An act of confrontation may provide a moment of insight that will lead to a reinterpretation of historical and current events. In the process of insight or reflection an increase in seW-knowledge is gained that leads to a new beginning. This study calls for a willingness to change, a motivation to "switch cognitive gears' from an automatic haM of mind to active, conscious reflection of what is right and what is wrong. ~ also calls upon the individual to make the gold mines and South Africa a better place in which to work and live. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die organisasiekultuur van 'n maatskappy is nie alleen die "gom" wat die besigheidsinstelling en sy onderafdelings bind nie, maar in 'n hoe mate ook die onderliggende rede waarom die besigheidsinstelling bestaan. Die punt sal aan die hand van die goudmynbedryf geillustreer word. Die ontdekking en gepaardgaande ekstraksie van goud gedurende die laaste eeu het die organisasiekultuur van die mynwese gevorm. Dit het help beslag gee aan rasse segregasie en het die grondslag gelê vir die sisteem waarin die industrie homself bevind. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die dieper aspekte van organisasiekultuur bloot te Iê - aspekte wat optrede en die sigbare gesindheid aandryf. Die grondliggende paradigma, kern metafore en aannames van die goudmyn industrie sal daarom eers bepaal moet word voordat 'n radikale transformasieproses geinisieer kan word. 'n Benadering van "paradigma wisselwerking" ("tussenspel") is gevolg waarvolgens kultuur beskryf word as 'n eksplisiete verandelike en 'n implisiete kern metafoor. Binne hierdie raamwerk word konsepte en betekenisse van organisasiekultuur binne 'n hermeneutiese metodiek ondersoek. Die doel daarvan is om die menslike, ekspressiewe en simboliese tekstuur van lewenswyse binne die goudmynbedryf te interpreteer. Die raamwerk verskaf 'n denkwyse oor organisasies wat nie daarop gerig is om spesifieke metodes of stappe daar te stel vir die bestuur of transformasie van organisasiekultuur nie. Die doelwit is om kultureel en holisties te dink oor die proses van transformasie. 'n Indiepte ondersoek van Schein se 'drie vlakke' van kultuur was noodsaaklik om die kern transformasie aspek van die Suid Afrikaanse goudmyn kultuur te ontrafel. Daar is bevind dat gedragseienskappe gevorm en bepaal word deur die gesamentlike onderliggende waardes, oortuigings en gesindhede van lede van 'n organisasie. Hierdie eienskappe skakel in by 'n reeks onderliggende aannames wat die binneste kern van organisasiekultuur uitmaak. Die aard van menslike verhoudings, 'n onderliggende aanname, is ge"identifiseer as die hoofonderliggende tema agter die bestaande belange sowel as die ingewortelde paradigmas wat bestaan aan beide kante van die rasverdeelde werksmag. Die historiese agtergrond van die industrie en die kulturele persepsies het 'n gedeelde reeks aannames daargestel wat diep-gewortelde denkpatrone en denkgietsels gevorm het en wat menslike verhoudings aansienlik beinvloed. Die studie maak duidelik dat enige transformasiepoging alleenlik moontliik is indien daar dieper as die bepaalde waardes en norme gedelf word om die onderliggende aannames en denkwyses asook die aard van menslike verhoudings te bepaal wat die sigbare optrede en gesindheid van mense dryf. Die sentraie dimensie van die studie, naamlik die aard van menslike verhoudings, berus op die opponerende konsepte van individualisme en kommunalisme. Hierdie twee konsepte, en die paradigmas wat hulle aandui, word gemanifesteer in die twee hoof bestuursraamwerke van organisasiekultuur wat in Suid Afrika bestaan. Baie navorsers suggereer dat die erkenning en gebruikmaking van die Afrosentriese waardesisteem, Ubuntu, naas 'n westerse individualistiese organisasiekultuur, noodsaaklik is om 'n outentieke humanisme, en verhoudinge in die algemeen te bevorder. Die studie stel voor dat die humane (mens-georianteerde) gees van Ubuntu, 'n gees van vertroue, omgee en respek vir menswaardigheid, saamgesnoer word met die westerse benadering tot bestuur, in plaas daarvan om Ubuntu as 'n enkele raamwerk aan te neern wat dalk negatief waargeneem kan word deur die moderne sakesektor. Die kulturele denkwyse wat gegenereer is in hierdie studie het dus geslaag daarin om die 'of-die-eenof- die-ander' denkwyse te vervang met 'n meer holistiese 'en-en' manier van dink en doen. 'n Kultuur van vertroue, opregtheid, integriteit en geen diskriminasie is noodsaaklik, ofte wel 'n morele en eties aanvaarbare organisasiekultuur waar bemagtigde werkers geinspireer word eerder as gedryf word. Transformasie is gemoeid met die intellektuele, sosiale, spirituele en van groot belang, die emosionele hulpbronne van 'n organisasie. Die aksent op selfbewussyn, wat fundamenteel is vir die gees van Ubuntu, word gegenereer deur 'n verstaan van ons eie emosies, en tweedens die verstaan van die emosies van ander. Emosionele intelligensie het onlangs te voerskyn gekom as 'n belangrike bydraer tot self-regulasie. Dit is 'n beslissende bestanddeel in die transformasieproses van die organisasiekultuur van die goudmynbedryf. Die studie stel voor dat die transformasieproses geinisieer kan word deur 'n spesifieke gebeurtenis wat die fokus word, 'n oomblik van besorgdheid rakende die huidige predikament waarin die industrie of meer belangrik, die individu homself/haarself bevind. Konfrontasie is selfs nodig vir 'n ontwikkeling van 'n oomblik van insig wat aanleiding kan gee tot 'n reinterpretasie van historiese en huidige gebeure. Tydens die proses van insig of nabetragting word 'n toename in selfkennis opgedoen wat lei tot 'n nuwe begin. Die studie vestig die aandag op 'n noodsaaklikheid van 'n verandering van gesindheid en aanvaarding van die eis tot verandering. Dit sluit in 'n verbintenis om kognitiewe 'ratte' te verander vanaf 'n outomatiese sienswyse na 'n aktiewe, bewuste refleksie van wat is reg en wat is verkeerd. Dan kan die goudmyne en Suid Afrika in geheel 'n beter plek gemaak word om in te leef en te werk.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study project aims to use "Real Option Analysis" as a tool to translate financial hedging strategies into business strategies that can be used to hedge business projects against their associated risks. Financial investments are often hedged by means of further investment in financial option structures. These option structures give the investor the option (and sometimes the obligation) to change the constituents of his original investment, depending on changes in the external environment. A well engineered option structure will protect the investor against downside risk, while maximizing profits from upside risk. The objective of this study project is then to adapt some of the standard structures to such an extent that they can be used with similar success in the real business environment. This adaptation is done by means of Real Option Analysis - a relatively new theory whereby business uncertainty and managerial flexibility can be evaluated and quantified in a way similar to financial options. It will be seen that a careful application of Real Option Analysis allows one to take a certain business situation, identify the risks inherent to it, find a suitable option structure to hedge against those risks, and modify this option structure so that it can be implemented as a pure business strategy. This analysis is supported by a detailed derivation of a popular Real Option Analysis model, and an in depth discussion of the differences between Real- and financial options as well as difficulties associated with the implementation of Real Option-based strategies. Several examples of specific business situations are analyzed and it is concluded that Real Option Analysis can provide useful, practical and competitive strategies. Above all, the thought process leading to said strategies is deemed to provide powerful insight into the dynamics of the business/project under evaluation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie projek poog om "Real Option Analysis" te gebruik om finansiele immuniserings strategiee om te skakel in besigheids strategiee wat gebruik kan word om besigheids projekte te beskerm teen hul inherente risikos. Finansiele beleggings word dikwels geimmuniseer deur middel van verdere beleggings in finansiele opsie strukture. Hierdie strukture gee aan die belegger die opsie (en soms die verpligting) om die samestelling van sy oorspronklike belegging aan te pas na gelang van veranderinge in die omgewing. 'n Goed ontwerpte struktuur sal die belegger toelaat om sy winste te maksimeer terwyl verliese as gevolg van negatiewe risiko beperk word. Die doel van die studie projek is dan om sommige van hierdie standaard opsie strukture aan te pas sodat dit nie net in die beleggings wereld nie, maar ook in die besigheids wereld toegepas kan word. Hierdie aanpassing word gedoen met behulp van "Real Option Analysis" - 'n relatief nuwe teorie waarvolgens besigheids onsekerhede and bestuurs aanpasbaarhede geevalueer en gekwantifiseer kan word op 'n soortgelyke wyse as finansiele opsies. Dit sal gesien word dat 'n deeglike toepassing van "Real Option Analysis" die gebruiker toelaat om 'n besigheids situasie te evalueer, die risikos daaran verbonde te identifiseer, 'n toepaslike opsie struktuur te vind wat beskerming sal bied teen hierdie risikos, en dan hierdie struktuur aan te pas sodat dit as 'n besigheid strategie toegepas kan word. Hierdie analise word ondersteun deur die afleiding van 'n populere "Real Option Analysis" model, 'n bespreking van die verskille tussen Rieele- en finansiele opsies, sowel as komplikasies wat verwag kan word tydens die implimentasie van 'n strategie gebasseer op Rieele Opsies. Verskeie voorbeelde van spesifieke besigheids situasies word geanaliseer en dit gee aanleiding tot die gevolgtrekking dat "Real Option Analysis" wel sinvolle, bruikbare en kompeterende strategiee kan voorsien. Verder word daar aangedui dat die denk proses wat lei tot hierdie strategiee, 'n kragtige bron van insig in die besigheid/projek dinamika kan gee.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper examines the effect a target's operating characteristics can have on the takeover-decision of a potential bidder. Consequently, the general socioeconomic changes within the takeover market and their consequences for companies acting within this hostile environment are described and the most common economic and non-economic motives of bidders as well as several distinctive target characteristics discussed. In particular, this study identifies and subsequently analyses 28 variables viewed to be potentially relevant for a bidder's takeover-decision. In order to obtain the best possible insights into the behavior of the identified variables and their particular influence on the likelihood of getting taken over, the specific variables are empirically tested on an individual level through the application of different nonparametric techniques as well as on a combined level through the performance of a binary logistic regression analysis. The empirical examination is based on a total of 804 observations gathered by Bloomberg L.P. for the pharmaceutical and the related health care sector and covers the period from 1996 to 2002. The results of the different testing methods, although subject to certain limitations, give reason to believe that there are indeed certain factors that can make companies more interesting for potential bidders. Therefore, a regular performance of 'target-self-tests' as suggested by the author is viewed to be paramount for an early anticipation of hostile takeover attempts and a timely establishment of adequate measures of defense, which as a consequence could contribute considerably to a decrease of a company's likelihood of getting taken over. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie fokus op die effek wat 'n potensiele teiken se bedryfseienskappe op die oorname besluit van die organisasie wat die oorname oorweeg, kan hê. Gevolglik word die algemene sosio-ekonomiese veranderinge in die oorname mark en hulle gevolge vir maatskappy wat daarbinne opereer, bespreek. Verder word die mees algemene ekonomiese en nie-ekonomiese beweegredes van maatskappye wat oornames oorweeg asook verskeie onderskeidende eienskappe van teikenmaatskappye, ook bespreek. In besonder identifiseer en analiseer hierdie studie 28 veranderlikes wat potensieel relevant mag wees tydens 'n oorname besluit. Ten einde die bes moontlik insig te verkry oor die gedrag van die ge-identifiseerde veranderlikes en hulle spesifieke invloed op die waarskynlikheid van 'n oorname, word nie-parametriese tegnieke toegepas om op individuele en saamgestelde vlak die veranderlikes empiries te toets. Hierdie empiriese ondersoek is gebaseer op 'n totaal van 804 observasies soos versamel deur Blomberg L.P. vir die farmaseutiese en verwante gesondheidsorgsektore en strek oor die tydperk 1996 tot 2002. Die resultate van die onderskeie toetsmetodes - gegewe sekere beperkings - dui daarop dat daar inderdaad sekere faktore is wat maatskappye meer aantreklike teikens vir 'n potensiele oorname kan maak. Gevolglik beskou die navorser dit as belangrik dat sekere 'selftoetse' gereeld gedoen behoort te word. Dit kan dien as vroee waarskuwingsein met betrekking tot die waarskynlikheid van 'n vyandige oorname; en kan die geteikende maatskappy help om tydige verdedigingsmeganismes in plek te kry ten einde die waarskynlikheid van oorname beduidend te verminder.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Risk managers and regulators are primarily concerned with ensuring that there is sufficient capital to withstand the effects of adverse movements in market prices. The accurate prediction of the maximum amount that a financial institution can expect to Jose over a specified period is essential to guard against catastrophic losses that can threaten the viability of an individual finn or the stability of entire markets. Value-at-risk (VaR) is a quantile-based measure of risk that is widely used for calculating the capital adequacy requirements of banks and other financial institutions. However, the current models for price risk tend to underestimate the risk of catastrophic losses because the entire return distribution is used to calculate the value-at-risk. By contrast, Extreme Value" Theory uses only the largest observations to model the tails of a distribution, which should provide a better fit for estimates of extreme quantiles and probabilities. The semi-parametric Hill (1975) estimator has often been used to fit the tails of financial returns, but its performance is heavily dependent on the number k" of order statistics used in the estimation process and the estimator can be very biased if this choice is suboptimal. Since k" depends on unknown properties of the tail, it has to be estimated from the sample. The first truly data-driven method for choosing an optimal number of order statistics adaptively was introduced by Beirlant, Dierckx. Goegebeur and Matthys (1999) and modified by Beirlanl. Dierckx and Stmca (2000) and Matthys and Beirlanl (2000b). Their methods are based on an exponential regression model developed independently by Beirlant et a/. (1999) and Feuerverger and Hall (1999) to reduce the bias found in the Hill estimator. The reduced bias of these adaptive estimators and the associated estimator for extreme quantiles developed by Matthys and Beirlant (2000b) makes these estimators attractive from a risk management point of view, but more work needs to be done on characterising their finite sample properties before they can be used in practice. In particular, it is crucially important to establish the smallest sample size that will yield reliable estimates of extreme quantiles and probabilities and to determine the widths and coverage probabilities of confidence intervals. This study project reviews the probability and statistical theory of univariate Extreme Value Theory from a financial risk management perspective. It is clear from a survey of the literature that the most worthwhile direction to pursue in terms of practical research will be intimately connected with developments in the fast-moving field of EVT with a future emphasis not only on fully evaluating the existing models, but indeed on creating even less biased and more precise models. Keywords and phrases: Extreme value index, Pareto-type distributions, maximum likelihood estimation, bias reduction, exponential regression model, market risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Risikobestuurders en -reguleerders is hoofsaaklik gemoeid met die versekering dat genoegsame kapitaal beskikbaar is om die effek van ongunstige beweging in markpryse die hoof te kan bied. Die akkurate vooruitskatting van die maksimum verlies wat 'n finansiele instelling oor 'n spesifieke tydperk kan ly, is noodsaaklik as beskerming teen katastrofiese verliese wat die voortbestaan van 'n individuele firma, of die stabiliteit van die totale mark, mag bedreig. Waarde-op-Risiko (WoR) is 'n kwantiel gebaseerde maatstaaf van risiko wat algemeen vir die berekening van kapitaaltoereikendheid van banke en ander finansiele instellings benut word. Die huidige prys risikomodelle neig om die risiko van katastrofiese verliese te onderskat, omdat die totale opbrengs verspreiding gebruik word om WoR te bereken. In teenstelling benut die Ekstreme Waarde Teorie (EWT), slegs die grootste waarnemings om die eindverdelings te modelleer en is as sulks meer geskik om ekstreme kwantiele en waarskynlikhede te bepaal. Die semi-parametriese Hill (1975) skatter word gereeld gebruik om die stertgedeeltes van finansiele opbrengste te beraam, maar sy verrigting is swaar afhanklik van die getal k~ van rangstatistieke wat in die skattingsproses gebruik word en die skatting kan baie sydig wees indien die keuse suboptimaal is. Weens die afhanklikheid van kn van onbekende eienskappe van die stertgedeeltes, moet dit geskat word vanuit die steekproefdata. Die eerste data-gedrewe metode vir die keuse van die optimale rangordestatistieke, is deur Beiriant, Dierckx, Goegebeur en Matthys (1999) ontwikkel en aangepas deur Beirlant, Dierckx and Starica (2000), asook Matthys en Beirlant (2000b). Hul metodes is op 'n eksponensiele regressiemodel gebaseer, en is onafhanklik deur Beirlant et at. (1999), en Feuerverger en Hall (1999) ontwikkel met die doel om die sydigheid van die Hill skatter te verminder. Die verminderde sydigheid van hierdie adaptiewe skatters en die verwante skatter vir ekstreme kwantiele, ontwikkel deur Matthys en Beirlant (2000b), maak hierdie skatters aantreklik vanuit 'n risikobestuur oogpunt, maar meer werk word benodig met die karakterisering van hul eindige steekproefeienskappe, alvorens dit in die praktyk benut kan word. In besonder is dit van uiterste belang dat die kleinste steekproefgrootte bepaal sal word wat die betroubare skattings van ekstreme kwantiele en moontlikhede sal verseker, en wat ook benut kan word om betroubaarheidsintervalle op te ste!. Hierdie studie bied 'n oorsig van die moontlikhede en statistiese teorie van die eenveranderlike EWT vanuit 'n finansiele risikobestuur perspektief. Dit is duidelik vanuit die literatuurstudie dat die mees nuttige rigting om voort te gaan met praktiese navorsing, verband hou met die ontwikkeling in die vinnig ontwikkelende veld van EWT met toekomstige fokus, nie slegs op die volle evaluering van die bestaande modelle nie, maar ook op die ontwikkeling van minder sydige en meer akkurate modelle.

Thesis (MBA)-- Stellenbosch University, 1995. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The price of shares is determined primarily by investors' current expectations about the future values of variables that measure the relevant aspects of a company's performance and profitability, particularly the anticipated growth rate of earnings per share. Empirically, no model estimated with only historical senes data has been found to have greater forecast accuracy than the random walk model in estimating earnings one period ahead. This has led to the conclusion that past and future earnings growth is uncorrelated and that only year t-l earnings are useful in forecasting year t earnings. Research by Mozes in the USA has found the opposite and his model is applied to the South African situation. The aim is to determine whether the Mozes model has greater forecasting accuracy in the prediction of earnings per share than the random walk model. The present study shows that the Mozes model has greater forecast accuracy in the prediction of earnings per share than the random walk model if the following criteria are met: the company must be classified as a large company in terms of market capitalisation; or the percentage increase in earnings per share must be large; and the earnings per share must be classified in the growth mode. It is demonstrated that if these criteria are met, the historical growth in earnings and the future growth in earnings are positively correlated and not distributed at random. If earnings per share is classified in the non~growth mode, the random walk model is more accurate in the prediction of earnings per share than the Mozes model and as such, only the earnings per share of year t-l is important in forecasting year t's earnings per share. The most important conclusion from the study is that earnings per share in the South African market is not always randomly distributed. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die prys van aandele word primer bepaal deur beleggers se huidige verwagtinge rakende die toekomstige waarde van veranderlikes wat relevante aspekte van die maatskappy se prestasie en winsgewendheid beinvloed, meer spesifiek die geantisipeerde groei in verdienste per aandeel. Empiriese studies het bevind dat die toevalslopie-model die grootste akkuraatheid in die vooruitskatting van verdienste vir een periode in die toekoms lewer indien van historiese tydreeksdata gebruik gemaak word. Die gevolgtrekking word dus gemaak dat groei in verdienste van die verlede en die toekoms nie gekorreleerd is nie en dat slegs jaar t-1 se verdienste belangrik is in die vooruitskatting van jaar t se verdienste. Navorsing deur Mozes in die VSA het die teendeel getoon en die model is in die ondersoek toegepas op Suid-Afrikaanse data om te bepaal of dieselfde bevindinge geld. Resultate van hierdie studie toon dat daar aan die volgende kriteria voldoen moet word alvorens die Mozes-model meer akkurate vooruitskattings van verdienste per aandeel lewer as die toevals-Iopiemodel : -die maatskappy behoort as 'n groot maatskappy geklassifiseer te wees volgens markkapitalisasie; of -die persentasieverandering in verdienste per aandeel behoort groot te wees; en -indien verdienste per aandeel as synde in die groeifase geklassifiseer is. Indien aan die kriteria voldoen word, is aangetoon dat historiese groei in verdienste en toekomstige groei in verdienste gekorreleerd is en nie ewekansig versprei is nie. In die gevalle waar verdienste per aandeel as synde in die nie-groeifase geklassifiseer is, lewer die toevalslopie-model oorheersend meer akkurate vooruitskattings van verdienste per aandeel as die Mozes-model en gevolglik is daar bevind dat slegs jaar t ~ 1 se verdienste per aandeel belangrik is vir die vooruitskatting van jaar t se verdienste per aandeel. Die belangrikste afleiding vanuit die studie is gevolglik dat verdienste per aandeel in die SuidAfrikaanse mark nie in aile gevalle sonder meer ewekansig versprei is nie.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1997. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study project comprises an analysis of the Cash Flow Statements of a number of delisted companies for the years in which the companies were listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The trends in the cash flow infonnation for the years prior to delisting is summarised in order to detennine whether the Cash Flow Statement can be utilised as an aid in the prediction of financial failure. The validity of the foUowing hypothesis is tested against the results of the study: If the cash flow from operations of a company is very low or negative for two years, the company will be delisted, except if an issue of shares can be done. From a sample of 46 companies, the following was derived: 16 companies encountered cash flow problems and tried to delay delisting by issuing shares. 19 companies encountered cash flow problems, but did not try to delay delisting through tbe issue of shares. 11 companies were delisted for reasons other than cash flow problems. The fmal conclusion is tbat the Cash Flow Statement can be utilised as an aid in the prediction of fmancial failure, but compliance to tbe bypotbesis does not necessarily mean tbat failure is inevitable. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werkstuk behels 'n ontleding van die Kontantvloeistate van 'n aantal gedenoteerde maatskappye vir die jare waarin die maatskappye genoteer was op die Jobannesburgse Effektebeurs. Die tendense wat waargeneem word in die kontantvloei oor 'n aantal jare tot en met denotering word saamgevat ten einde vas te stel of die Kontantvloeistaat gebruik kan word as hulpmiddel in die voorspelling van finansiele mislukking. Die volgende hipotesestelling word gemaak en dan getoets aan die hand van die resultate van die studie: Indien die kontantvloei uit bedrywighede van 'n maatskappy vir twee jaar baie laag of negatief is, sal die maatskappy denoteer behalwe as 'n uitgifte van aandele gemaak kan word. Uit 'n steekproef van 46 maatskappye is die volgende afgelei: 16 maatskappye het kontantvloeiprobleme ondervind en het deurgaans denotering probeer vertraag deur aandele-uitgifte te maak. 19 Maatskappye het kontantvloeiprobleme ondervind maar het die aandele-uitgifte gebruik om denotering te vertraag. 11 maatskappye is gedenoteer weens redes anders as kontantvloeiprobleme. Die uiteindelike gevolgtrekking is dat die Kontantvloeistaat wel kan dien as bulpmiddel in die voorspelling van finansiele mislukking, maar voldoening aan die hipotese beteken nie noodwendig dat mislukking onvermydelik is nie.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1997. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this study it is attempted to determine whether delisting of companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is preceded by certain cash flow patterns. Information was collected by summarising the Source and Application of Funds statements and Cash Flow statements of companies into a spreadsheet model. The cash flows of companies were then presented graphically over time with the intent to derive possible patterns. It was also attempted to assess the impact of depreciation on the cash flow situation, as well as the possible reasons for share Issues. Although the sample may be too small for definite conclusions, it seems as if certain cash flow patterns preceded delisting and that share issues are related to investing activities. Depreciation does not seem to have a substantial effect on the cash flow situation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word daar gepoog om vas te steI of denotering van maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs voorafgegaan word deur sekere kontantvloei patrone. Inligting is versarneI deur maatskappye se Bron en Aanwending van Fondse state en Kontantvloeistate in 'n sigbladmodeI saarn te vat. Die kontantvloeie van maatskappye is dan grafies voorgesteI oor tyd ten einde moontlike patrone af te lei. Daar is ook gepoog om die impak van waardevermindering op die kontantvloei situasie te bepaaI, asook die moontlike redes vir aandeeluitgifte. AlhoeweI die monster moontlik te klein is vir definitiewe afleidings wil dit tog voorkom of sekere kontantvloei patrone denotering voorafgaan en dat aandeeluitgifte verband hou met investeringsaktiwiteite. Dit blyk dat waardevermindering nie 'n wesenlike rol in die kontantvloei situasie speel nie.

Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 1998. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In many ways, the cash flow statement can be more informative than the other financial statements. It is relatively freer from subjective accounting and reveals managerial choices, such as investment and financing decisions, which are less apparent from the balance sheet or income statement. One of the components of the cash flow statement, cash flow from operations, is the primary focus and the primary variable of interest in this study. The study set out to create a database for the University of Stellenbosch Business School by using cash flow ratios of listed industrial companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange for the period 1974 to 1997. This is an initial attempt to have such a facility in place to assist future researchers in establishing patterns present in the ratios. Descriptive statistics were calculated for all the ratios. Twenty-two ratios were calculated in three ways: (a) Ratios were pooled over time and over sector; (b) Ratios were pooled over time for each of the 17 sectors; and (c) Ratios were pooled over sectors for each of the years 1974 to 1997. In addition, chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for normality were conducted. To get insight into the potential patterns, some of the statistical properties of cash flow ratios have been examined with particular reference to two ratios, (ratio 14 and ratio 20). These were chosen since they are considered to be the most important ratios in the study. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die kontantvloeistaat kan op baie maniere meer inligting as die ander finansieIe state verskaf. Dit word relatief gesproke minder deur subjektiewe rekerungkunde beYnvloed en dit 1aat die klem val op bestuursbesluite, S005 investerings- en finansieringsbesluite. Laasgenoemdes is minder duidelik waameembaar as daar na die balansstaat en inkomstestaat gekyk word. Kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite. een van die komponente van die kontantvloeistaat, is die primere fokus en die belangrikste item in hierdie studie. Die doel van die studie is om 'n datahasis vir die Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch daar te stel, deur gebruik te maak van kontantvloeiverhoudings van aile genoteerde industriele maatskappye op die Johannesburg Effektebeurs vir die periode 1974 tot 1997. Dit was 'n eerste poging om so 'n fasiliteit daar te stel ten einde toekomstige navorsers in staat te stel om patrone aanwesig in die verhoudings waar te neem. Beskrywende statistiek is bereken Vlf al die verhoudings. Twee en twintig verhoudings is bereken op drie maniere: (a) Verhoudings gepoel oor tyd en oor sektore heen; (b) Verhoudings verpoel oor jare vir elk van die 17 sektore; en (c) Verhoudings verpoel oor sektore heen, per jaar vanaf 1974 tot 1997. Verder is die chi-kwadraat en die Kolmogorov-Smirnoftoetse vir normaliteit gedoen. Twee van die verhoudings. verhoudings 14 en 20, is uitgesonder as die belangrikste verhoudings in die studie. Ten einde insig in die potensieie patrone van die kontantvloeiverhoudings te verkry, is die statistiese eienskappe van hierdie twee verhoudings verder ondersoek.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1993. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Cash flow information is important in evaluating the financial results of companies. As cash flow statements were only prepared since October 1988 as part of Generally Accepted Accounting Practice various assumptions were made in calculating cash flow information for earlier years. In a study by Wessels (1991) a few approximate methods were used to calculate cash flow from operating activities. For this study an analysis was again made of the same companies. In this latest study it is concluded that the assumptions of the previous study could be wrong. It is therefore suggested that the assumptions and results of the previous study be re-evaluated. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Kontantvloei-inligting is belangrik by die evaluering van maatskappyresultate en daarom word aannames dikwels gebruik om die inligting voor Oktober 1988 te bereken . Die rede hiervoor is dat kontantvloeistate as deel van Algemeen Aanvaarde Rekeningkundige Praktyk eers sedert Oktober 1988 gepubliseer is . In In studie van Wessels (1991) is gebruik gemaak van 'n aantal benaderde metodes om kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite te bereken. 'n Ondersoek na dieselfde maatskappye wat toe gebruik is, is weer in hierdie studie gedoen. Die gevolgtrekking wat in hierdie studie gemaak word, is dat die aannames van Wessels moontlik foutief kon wees. Daar word aanbeveel dat die studie van Wessels en die gevolgtrekkings waartoe gekom is, herevalueer moet word.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1993. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The success rate of an undertaking is normally measured against the industrial average of the specific undertaking. In theory it is very easy, but in practice many problems arise which must be overcome before any ratio analysis becomes meaningful. All companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange were measured against the definition of a conglomerate. After the selection there were efforts to divide all the South · African conglomerates into homogeneous groups according to an article by Amit & Livnat (1990: 65-100) of the United States of America "Grouping of Conglomerates by their segments' economic attributes: Towards a meaningful ratio analysis." Thereby a more meaningful ratio analysis can be devised. A method of selection was devised to select the conglomerates from the universe which consisted of all listed companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on 1 February 1993. Out of 685 companies 44 were selected as conglomerates. When the USA article was applied to South Africa it appeared that, due tot various problems, it was impossible to apply the USA article directly to the South African situation. Therefore the South African situation was approached differently. Due to the fact that guidelines only existed according to which conglomerates report their financial information segmentally, there were efforts to determine which methods were applied by the 44 conglomerates and whether any uniform measures existed in the segmental reporting. After the analysis of the separate companies it was found that 19 of the 44 companies which were selected as conglomerates report financial figures for their operational segments; 16 companies disclose no segmental reporting; 17 companies only mentioned certain segmental information in the directors' reports and 2 companies reported financial information for their subsidiaries instead of operational segments. From the research it becomes clear that segmental reporting was practiced in less than 50% of South African conglomerates. It appears that company management avoid segmental reporting to ensure that opposition companies cannot benefit from it. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die mate van sukses van 'n onderneming word normaalweg aan die gemiddelde van die industrie waarin die onderneming homself bevind, gemeet. Teoreties is dit baie maklik, maar in die praktyk ontstaan daar vele probleme wat oorkom moet word voordat enige verhoudingsanalise enigsins betekenisvol kan wees. Alle maatskappye wat op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs genoteer is, is aan die definisie van 'n konglomeraat gameet. Na die seleksie is daar aan die hand van 'n aftikel deur Amit & Livnat (1990: 65·'00) van die Verenigde State van Amerika "Grouping of Conglomerates by their segments' economic attributes: Towards a more meaningful ratio analysis" . gepoog om die Suid·Afrikaanse konglomerate in homogene groepe te deel. Sodoende word 'n meer sinvolle verhoudingsanalise daargestel. 'n Seleksiemetode is gevind om die konglomerate uit die universum, wat bestaan uit alle maatskappye wat op 1 Februarie 1993 op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs genoteer was, te selekteer. Met die toe passing van die VSA-artikel op Suid-Afrika het dit egter geblyk dat dit weens verskeie probleme onmoontlik sou wees om die VSA-artikel direk op die Suid-Afrikaanse situasie toe te pas. Daar is toe van die VSA-artikel afgewyk en die Suid-Afrikaanse situasie is op 'n ander manier benader. Aangesien daar slegs riglyne bestaan waarvolgens konglomerate segmentele rapportering in hul finansiële state doen, is daar toe gepoog om te bepaal watter metodes die 44 konglomeraatmaatskappye volg en of daar enigsins 'n mate van eenvormigheid in hul segmentele rapportering bestaan. Nadat die verskillende bedryfsegmente van elk van die 44 maatskappye geïdentifiseer is, is elkeen se finansiêle state sorgvuldig ontleed sodat daar vasgestel kon word of daar enigsins finansiële rapportering in die verskillende bedryfsegmente plaasvind. Uit die ontleding van die onderskeie maatskappye is daar gevind dat 10 van die 44 maatskappye wat as konglomerate geselekteer is, wel finansiële syfers in segmentele verband rapporteer; 16 maatskappye doen geen segmentele rapportering nie; 7 maatskappye maak slegs in hul direkteursverslag melding van sekere segmentele inligting en 2 maatskappye rapporteer finansiële inligting in filiaalverband in plaas van bedryfsegmente. Uit die ondersoek blyk dit dat segmentele rapportering in minder as 50% van SuidAfrikaanse konglomeraatmaatskappye voorkom . Dit wil egter voorkom of maatskappybestuur hul van segmentele finansiële rapportering in hul jaarverslae weerhou uit vrees dat hul opposisiemaatskappye bevoordeel mag word .