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The advancement in data acquiring technology continues to see survival data sets with many covariates. This has posed a new challenge for researchers in identifying important covariates for inference and prediction for a time-to-event response variable. In this dissertation, common Cox proportional hazards model selection techniques and a random survival forest technique were compared using five performance criteria measures. These performance measures were concordance index, integrated area under the curve, and , and R2 . To carry out this exercise, a multicentre clinical trial data set was used. A simulation study was also implemented for this comparison. To develop a Cox proportional model, a training dataset of 75% of the observations was used and the model selection techniques were implemented to select covariates. Full Cox PH models containing all covariates were also incorporated for analysis for both the clinical trial data set and simulations. The clinical trial data set showed that the full model and forward selection technique performed better with the performance metrics employed, though they do not reduce the complexity of the model as much as the Lasso technique does. The simulation studies also showed that the full model performed better than the other techniques, with the Lasso technique overpenalising the model from the simulation with the smaller data set and many covariates. AIC and BIC were less effective in computation than the rest of the variable selection techniques, but effectively reduced model complexity than their counterparts for the simulations. The integrated area under the curve was the performance metric of choice for choosing the final model for analysis on the real data set. This performance metric gave more efficient outcomes unlike the other metrics on all selection techniques. This dissertation hence showed that variable selection techniques differ according to the study design of the research as well as the performance measure used. Hence, to have a good model, it is important to not use a model selection technique in isolation. There is therefore need for further research and publish techniques that work generally well for different study designs to make the process shorter for most researchers.

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

A model that can be used to analyze both current and future high-speed rail corridors is presented in this work. This model has been integrated into the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM). The TSAM is a model used to predict travel demand between any two locations in the United States, at the county level. The purpose of this work is to develop tools that will create the necessary input data for TSAM, and to update the model to incorporate passenger rail as a viable mode of transportation. This work develops a train dynamics model that can be used to calculate the travel time and energy consumption of multiple high-speed train types while traveling between stations. The work also explores multiple options to determine the best method of improving the calibration and implementation of the model in TSAM. For the mode choice model, a standard C logit model is used to calibrate the mode choice model. The utility equation for the logit model uses the decision variables of travel time and travel cost for each mode. A modified utility equation is explored; the travel time is broken into an in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle time in an attempt to improve the model, however the test determines that there is no benefit to the modification. In addition to the C-logit model, a Box-Cox transformation is applied to both variables in the utility equation. This transformation removes some of the linear assumptions of the logit model and thus improves the performance of the model. The calibration results are implemented in TSAM, where both existing and projected high-speed train corridors are modeled. The projected corridors use the planned alignment for modeling. The TSAM model is executed for the cases of existing train network and projected corridors. The model results show the sensitivity of travel demand by modeling the future corridors with varying travel speeds and travel costs. The TSAM model shows the mode shift that occurs because of the introduction of high-speed rail. / Master of Science

A tool to model both current rail and future high-speed rail (HSR) corridors has been presented in this work. The model is designed as an addition to the existing TSAM (Transportation System Analysis Model) capabilities of modeling commercial airline and automobile demand. TSAM is a nationwide county to county multimodal demand forecasting tool based on the classical four step process. A variation of the Box-Cox logit model is proposed to best capture the characteristic behavior of rail demand in US. The utility equation uses travel time and travel cost as the decision variables for each model. Additionally, a mode specific geographic constant is applied to the rail mode to model the North-East Corridor (NEC). NEC is of peculiar interest in modeling, as it accounts for most of the rail ridership. The coefficients are computed using Genetic Algorithms. A one county to one station assignment is employed for the station choice model. Modifications are made to the station choice model to replicate choices affected by the ease of access via driving and mass transit. The functions for time and cost inputs for the rail system were developed from the AMTRAK website. These changes and calibration coefficients are incorporated in TSAM. The TSAM model is executed for the present and future years and the predictions are discussed. Sensitivity analysis for cost and speed of the predicted HSR is shown. The model shows the market shift for different modes with the introduction of HSR. Limited data presents the most critical hindrance in improving the model further. The current validation process incorporates essential assumptions and approximations for transfer rates, short trip percentages, and access and egress distances. The challenges for the model posed by limited data are discussed in the model. / Master of Science

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Background: Tobacco use is associated with an increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD). 14% of the incidence of AD is associated with various types of tobacco exposure. Additional real-world evidence is warranted to reveal the association between tobacco use and AD in age/gender-specific subpopulations. Method: In this thesis, the relationships between diagnoses related to tobacco use and diagnoses of AD in gender- and age-specific subgroups were investigated, using health information exchange data. The non-parametric Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the incidence of AD. Furthermore, the log-rank test was used to compare incidence between individuals with and without tobacco related diagnoses. In addition, we used semi-parametric Cox models to examine the association between tobacco related diagnoses and diagnoses of AD, while adjusting covariates. Results: Tobacco related diagnosis was associated with increased risk of developing AD comparing to no tobacco related diagnosis among individuals aged 60-74 years (female hazard ratio [HR] =1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07 – 1.48, p-value = 0.005; and male HR =1.33, 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.62, p-value =0.004). Tobacco related diagnosis was associated with decreased risk of developing AD comparing to no tobacco related diagnosis among individuals aged 75-100 years (female HR =0.79, 95% CI: 0.70 - 0.89, p-value =0.001; and male HR =0.90, 95% CI: 0.82 - 0.99, p-value =0.023). Conclusion: Individuals with tobacco related diagnoses were associated with an increased risk of developing AD in older adults aged 60-75 years. Among older adults aged 75-100 years, individuals with tobacco related diagnoses were associated with a decreased risk of developing AD.