相對於資本市場對於一國之經濟，外匯市場已日趨重要。在過去，已有許多研究，從總經面來觀察匯率的波動，筆者試著跳脫總經面而從投資者對風險的承受度角度去看外匯匯率的波動。因為在實務上，我們發現一個有趣的現象，就是當匯率波動度變大時，資產價格往往是下跌的。也就是當市場匯率波動度升高時，投資者傾向於保守，只尋求報酬較低但相對較安全之標的物。本研究從亞洲13個幣別分別對匯市、股市、利率、商品與信用等市場的風險波動度來做分析，以期能達到協助匯率預測的目標。本研究主要以14個風險變數來做分析，假設每個變數與匯率波動度之間存在的正負關係，最後再以迴歸係數是否顯著，來驗證我們的假設是否成立。 文中之資料除新興市場債券指數來自JP Morgan銀行外，其餘皆取自路透社及彭博社之歷史資料庫。 本研究發現，可以綜合出三點:(一)在亞洲貨幣中，投資人認為澳洲幣與紐西蘭幣相對於美元，是屬於高風險資產。(二)其它的亞洲貨幣，呈現相反的態勢，投資人普遍認為本國貨幣相對美元是安全性資產，當風險貼水增加時，投資人傾向持有本國貨幣。這種情形尤以台灣和日本為甚。(三) 本文一共蒐集五種波動度來衡量投資人心中風險貼水的變化，實證發現以美國S&P 500的波動度指數標VIX最具全面性的效果。 / To a nation’s economy, foreign exchange market has gained its importance over time in comparison to the capital market. There are already many studies that look at foreign exchange rate movement from a macroeconomic standpoint in the past. The author here is trying to leave macroeconomic behind and look at foreign exchange rate movement from investors’ risk aversion level point of view. The interesting phenomenon we found in the realistic setting is that when exchange rate volatility increases, the asset price usually decreases. In another word, when market exchange rate volatility increases, investors tend to be more conservative and seek investment targets with lower risks and lower returns. This study analyzes 13 Asian currencies in relation to the volatility of foreign exchange market, stock market, interest rate, commodity market and credit market in hope to be able to forecast foreign exchange rates. This study uses 14 risk variables for its analysis. We assume each risk variable has a positive or negative relationship with foreign exchange rate volatility then we run multiple regression analysis to check the relevance of each variable and to validate our assumptions. All data came from Reuters and Bloomberg historic database, with the exception of Developing Market Bond Index which was obtained from JP Morgan Bank. The result of this study can be summarized as 3 findings: 1. Investors believe that when comparing with USD dollar, AUD and NZD are the risk assets. 2. Except AUD and NZD, investors think rest of the Asia currencies are risk assets. When risk premium increasing; the investors would like to have local currencies instead of USD. 3. The study uses 5 different volatilities from different markets to test the risk appetite from investors. It turns out the US stock market VIX index has most obviously link with Asia Currency.

Following Devereux, Shi, and Xu（2007）, this thesis analyzes the effects of tariffs and derives the optimal tariff under the circumstances that the US dollar acts as an international ‘vehicle’ currency— all traded goods prices between the US and the rest of the world are set in US dollars. We set a tariff policy rule which allows the authority to react to country-specific productivity shocks. The analysis on the equilibrium shows that the current tariff imposed by the US on its output is expansionary. However, for the rest of the world, a current tariff imposed by the US is contractionary. Optimal tariff under flexible and fixed exchange rates are examined. Under flexible exchange rate, optimal tariff policy parameters of the US are dependent only on the monetary policy of its own being indifferent to the exchange rate movement；the exchange rate movement is crucial to the optimal tariff policy of the rest of the world. Nevertheless, the optimal tariff policy of the US under fixed exchange rate is the same as that under the flexible exchange rate, while the policy of the rest of the world is altered owing to the loss of control on its domestic money supply to do the unilateral peg.

歐元成功的發行流通，以及歐盟貨幣暨經濟同盟的合作關係，帶動歐元區亮麗的經濟成長。亞洲在經歷1997年金融風暴後，各界倡議亞洲應加速進行貨幣合作，以減少匯率波動對經濟帶來的衝擊。 亞洲可參考歐元前身－歐洲通貨單位(European Currency Unit, ECU)的經驗來編製亞元。但問題在於，相對於歐盟國家，亞洲國家經濟發展與政治背景差異大。本文主要探討，何種總體條件納入亞元權數的計算，可避免亞元產生不必要的波動，並嘗試納入外匯政策有關變數，以反映亞洲國家間的歧異。另外，亦希望從試編亞元，模擬台灣加入亞元的可能影響。 研究結果發現：1.亞元權重，採GDP ppp計算權值，使ACU波動最小。隱含，對亞洲來說，當經濟發展越相近，有助穩定ACU。2.採出口值、進口值或總貿易值作權重，對ACU之影響，差異不大。3.增加調整基期，ACU較為穩定。4.台灣加入ACU後波動度明顯變小，而僅有東協加三組成之ACU波動程度最大。5.加入資本管制變數後，ACU的波動度均下降。

本篇論文主要以事後的角度，分析美國實施量化寬鬆政策前後，在股市和房市上分別以ETF和REITs作為工具，研究如何進行國際資產配置以及匯率避險。國際資產配置包含兩項重要的工作：投資組合的建立以及匯率風險的管理，首先本研究會先以平均數─變異數投資組合模型以及夏普評鑑法進行投資組合的建構，接著以詹森迴歸法比較該投資組合與市場上其他指標基金有無超額報酬，最後再以最低變異數避險比率進行匯率避險，觀察績效改善的情況。 研究期間為2003年1月至2014年3月，時間序列切成金融危機前、金融危機期間、QE I、QE II和QE III期間，分析ETF投資在已開發和新興共24個國家，以及REITs投資在18個國家的結果。本篇研究發現： 一、從相關係數的變化可以發現一個國家所引發的金融事件可能會成為國際性的金融危機。 二、前後三次量化寬鬆政策成效以第一次最為明顯，之後報酬率的成長大抵上和量化寬鬆的規模呈正向關係。 三、金融危機前大多配置在新興國家，但股市於前兩次量化寬鬆時期配置於新興國家的比重較多，在第三次時則較多配置在已開發國家；而房市在三次量化寬鬆期間並無配置於某一型國家的偏好。 四、三次量化寬鬆期間最佳配置組合均優於新興國家型指標基金，說明單獨投資在新興國家頗不理想，突顯出國際資產配置的重要性。 五、金融危機前進行匯率避險績效可獲得改善，但除了ETF最適配置組合在QE I時期有獲得相當的績效改善之外，其他時期和REITs最適配置組合僅只報酬率標準差下降，績效改善幅度均不大。

In this thesis we formulate a model for foreign exchange (FX) exposure management and multi-currency cash management taking into consideration random fluctuations of exchange rates and net revenues of a multinational firm (MNF). The central decision model used in this thesis is a scenario-based stochastic programming (SP) recourse model. A critical review of alternative scenario generation methods is given followed by analysis of some desirable properties of the scenario tree. The application of matching statistical moments of a probability distribution to generate a multiperiod scenario tree for our problem is described in detail. A four-stage SP decision model is formulated using the random parameter values. This model evaluates currency / cash flows hedging strategies, which provide rolling decisions on the size and timing of the forward positions. We compute an efficient frontier from which an investor can choose an optimal strategy according to his risk and return preferences. The flexibility of the SP model allows an investor to analyse alternative risk-return trading strategies. The model decisions are investigated by making comparisons with decisions based purely on the expected value problem. The investigation shows that there is a considerable improvement to the "spot only" strategy and provides insight into how these decisions are made. The contributions of the thesis are summarised below. (i) The FX forward scenario trees are derived using an arbitrage-free pricing strategy and is in line with modem principles of finance. (ii) Use of the SP model and forward contracts as a tool for hedging decisions is novel. (iii) In particular smoothing of the effects in exchange rates and the smoothing of account receivables are examples of innovative modelling approaches for FX management.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / In the United Kingdom, a central issue of contemporary foreign policy is whether or not to enter into full membership of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Membership has profound implications for the development of the European Union (EU) and the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and potentially upon the much heralded Anglo-American 'special relationship'. On a practical level, excluding the political implications of membership, joining the EMU means surrendering the pound sterling for the euro and in doing so the British would also surrender control of monetary policy. This thesis will examine the historical links between British defence and monetary policy and argues that there are strong historical bonds that link the two in the political psychology of Britain. This link has created for Britain twin nationalistic icons in the pound and the military. This thesis illustrates that a paradox exists in that membership in the EMU would improve British defence spending and yet nationalistic forces resist membership. At the same time, forces in Britain in favor of monetary integration, unable to accomplish it but pressured to show they are dedicated to the project of European integration, paradoxically commit to further defence integration thought the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

This dissertation examines Cassell's theory of purchasing power parity within the context of post-World War II foreign exchange markets and government policies.

The Gambia, a small open economy, implements a managed floating exchange rate regime. The central bank (CBG) has the mandate to design and implement monetary policy with the primary aim of achieving price and exchange stability in the economy. In spite of interventions by the CBG, the country continues to experience fluctuations in its exchange rate with several instances of major spikes in recent years. This thesis proposes a solution, through a change of policy regime, to control the long time and disturbing depreciation of the domestic currency. In a vector auto regressive framework, the study investigates sources of the exchange rate variability using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4. Furthermore, the OCA theory and the pre- conditions of inflation targeting are used to make a choice between a common currency and inflation targeting for the Gambia. The findings from the Johansen test of cointegration suggest that the selected key macroeconomic variables are cointegrated, meaning, they have long run equilibrium. The results of the VECM reveal that error correction mechanism can be achieved in some of the variables. This indicates that there exists the convergence process. In addition, the results from the impulse response analysis put forward that the macroeconomic variables have effect on...

"Legal aspects of currency and money circulation" represent a very original and specific area of monetary law. They are closely related to the economic and social issues, as the money as a phenomenon affects long-term visions as well as everyday life. The objective of my diploma thesis was a view on the current legislation of Czech currency and money circulation in the context of monetary theory and monetary law. Where required, there is a historical development of Czech legal currency and, in brief, issues related to the adoption of the common currency euro in the Czech Republic. This diploma thesis is divided into two parts each of them is subdivided into chapters and subchapters. The first part focused on selected legal aspects of the currency gives, at first, a brief overview of the relationship between the currency and the money. There are analyzed the parts of monetary sovereignty, including the relation between the monetary sovereignty and the monetary union. The comprehensive part is focused on the legal regulation of a legal currency, the historical development (including processes associated with the division of the common currency of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic) and the current status of the legal currency in the Czech Republic. With the similar structure, the second part...

La thèse examine l'optimalité de la Zone Euro une vingtaine d'années après le débat entre la Commission Européenne puis Frankel et Rose (1998) et Krugman (1993). Elle porte principalement sur les membres fondateurs (1980-2010), et s'intéresse secondairement à l'élargissement de la zone monétaire aux PECO. Elle retient un critère transversal d'analyse: la convergence des cycles économiques des pays membres évoqué dès Mundell (1961). L'analyse de la convergence des cycles (corrélation) et des chocs (modèle SVAR) est complétée par celle des déterminants de la première faite à l'aide de modèles à équations simultanées et de modèles dynamiques sur données de panel, ceci afin de répondre à la question de l'endogénéité des critères d'optimalité et ses conditions de réalisation. Enfin, le cas des biens non échangeables mérite d'être étudié à la lumière des caractéristiques de la crise économique de 2007-2008 qui a fortement touché les pays membres en rattrapage. L'analyse de la synchronisation des cycles immobiliers tient compte des caractéristiques particulières du secteur immobilier. La zone montre des divergences qui s'accentuent à nouveau avec la crise actuelle qui met en cause la viabilité de la monnaie unique ainsi que l'optimalité de la zone monétaire. / We examine the optimality of the euro zone two decades after the debate between the European Commission and Frankel and Rose (1998) versus Krugman (1993). The study focuses on the founding members between 1980 and 2010, and it also deals with the expansion of the currency area to CEECs. We retain a main convergence criterion through the analysis: the convergence of business cycles in member countries [Mundell (1961)]. The analysis of the convergence of cycles (with their bilateral correlations) and shocks at their origin (using a SVAR model) is completed by the study of its determinants (using simultaneous equations models and dynamic panel models). We then address the issue of endogeneity of the optimality criteria and its conditions of realization. Finally, the case of the real estate sector deserves to be studied in light of the characteristics of the economic crisis of 2007 - 2008 which has greatly affected catching up members. The analysis of the housing cycles takes also into account the specific characteristics of the housing sector. The area displays differences that are growing again with the crisis and calls upon the viability of the Euro Zone and the optimal currency area.