Digital currencies represent complementary alternatives to fiat money in the conventional mental models of exchange. Blockchain, as the underlying technology of Bitcoin, holds a potential to influence a peer-to-peer exchange in the perspective of trust and ownership. The underlying technologies of digital currencies may be part of concepts, where designers have a possibility to define their own exchange articles for specific needs of the exchange. The ambition of this report is to illustrate the possibilities for the initiation of a peer-to-peer exchange with use of the underlying technologies beyond Bitcoin. The explorative approach provided me material for the retrospective reflection to achieve this ambition. The thesis project consisted three iterations, one experiment, and a literature overview. The main conceptual work illustrates the result of explorative research, where blockchain ensures trust between participating parties. This ecosystem uses the principles of sharing economy for initialisation of exchange within the community. This concept demonstrates potential opportunities for future transactions, in which the exchange article replaces fiat money.

This thesis provides an assessment of monetary integration in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) focusing upon its feasibility and trade implications, in order to inform policy about the group’s deep integration scheme. The first aspect of the original contribution of the thesis focuses on one of the main issues in the debate of the monetary union in the WAMZ, namely the degree of asymmetry in macroeconomic shocks. The study examines the real effective exchange rate (REER) behaviour among the prospective candidates to assess the degree of potential costs of giving up monetary policy autonomy. The evidence reported from VECM, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis points to heterogeneous economies. Therefore, idiosyncratic shocks imply the need for different policy responses to adjust to macroeconomic shocks. The findings strengthen the case for policy autonomy in the region. The second aspect of original contribution of the thesis evaluates the potential effect of a common currency on trade among WAMZ member countries. Using the existing currency union in ECOWAS, the CFA franc zone, the chapter estimates the effect of a common currency on bilateral trade over the period 1980-2016 using the gravity model. The main conclusion reached is that membership of the CFA franc zone has promoted bilateral trade among members by 60%. The findings support the hypothesis that a common currency increases bilateral trade, which is a helpful guide for a WAMZ monetary union. In summary, the thesis demonstrates that in the long term, a common currency would promote intra-community trade, but at present, a monetary union is not feasible due to asymmetric macroeconomic shocks. Therefore WAMZ deep integration scheme would require members instituting adequate alternative adjustment mechanisms such as fiscal transfer schemes. / Ghana Education Trust Fund (GETFund) for the financial support and Division of Economics (now Accounting, Finance and Economics Group) for the offering of the Graduate Teaching Assistant Studentship

Depuis sa création la monnaie a été l’objet de nombreuses évolutions. Ces dernières années ont vu l’apparition de cryptomonnaies et de projets de monnaie issus de personnes privées. Ces évolutions ont poussé les États à réagir, se sentant alors menacés dans ce qui constitue un élément majeur de leur pouvoir : la monnaie et son contrôle. Comment les États ont-t-ils réagi à cette menace ? Dans ce mémoire, la monnaie officielle sera étudiée à travers les deux unités qui la composent : l’unité de paiement et l’unité de valeur. Ces deux unités se retrouvent dans les cryptomonnaies stables ainsi que dans les projets de monnaie numérique de banque centrale, leur encadrement juridique sera étudié à travers le prisme de la législation canadienne et européenne. Le projet européen de monnaie numérique de banque centrale étant plus développé que le projet canadien, une attention particulière lui sera portée. Les États ont utilisé leur pouvoir législatif pour faire entrer les cryptomonnaies stables dans les systèmes préexistants, il peut s’agir du marché des valeurs mobilières ou du marché bancaire. Les États utilisent les règles de ces marchés pour encadrer ces innovations et les empêcher de se développer hors du sentier que le droit leur a tracé. La régulation ne permet pas d’endiguer suffisamment le phénomène des monnaies privées car elle ne propose pas d’alternative crédible. Les États ont donc mis en place des projets de monnaies numériques de banques centrales afin de créer cette alternative. / Since its creation, currency has been the subject of numerous evolutions. Recent years have seen the emergence of cryptocurrencies and currency projects from private individuals. These developments compelled states to react, feeling threatened in what constitutes a major element of their power: the currency and its control. How have states reacted to this threat? In this dissertation, official money will be studied through the two units that compose it: the unit of payment and the unit of value. These two units are found in stable cryptocurrencies as well as in central bank digital currency projects, their legal framework will be studied here through the prism of Canadian and European legislation. Since the European central bank digital currency project is more developed than the Canadian one, a special focus will be brought to it. States have used their legislative power to bring stable cryptocurrencies into pre-existing systems, through the securities market or the banking market. States use the rules of these markets to regulate these innovations and prevent them from developing outside the path that the law has paved for them. The various digital currency projects of central banks create an alternative to private currencies. They are the other answer to the concerns created by these new innovations.

Abstract:   The last decade currency carry trade has gained a lot of popularity because of their apparent profitability. It is a strategy that has been developed to exploit violations of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity. In particular, an investor must take a short position in a low-yielding currency to fund a long position in a high-yielding currency. In this research, we tried to contribute in the previous literature for the currency carry trade and its characteristics by using a different approach. Most of the researches that have been conducted in this area concern the risk agents associated with this strategy. However, in our research we investigated the relationship between currency carry trade and two equity indexes, one from the European market (DAX) and one from the American (DJIA). In order to do that, we estimated the returns of the DAX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as well as the returns of a carry trade index created by the Deutsche Bank, the Deutsche Bank’s G10 Currency Future Harvest index. The returns were estimated for a time period of twenty years (1995-2014). More specific, we examined whether there is granger causality between the returns of carry trade and of DAX/DJIA, whether there is leverage effect on the returns of the same index and finally whether changes in the returns of one of those indexes can affect the subsequent volatility of the other two. For being able to do this examination, we used two different statistical models, the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and the EGARCH [1, 1] model.       The first empirical finding suggests that there is granger causal effect from the two equity markets to carry trade, however the carry trade granger cause only to DJIA index. The second finding indicates that there no leverage effect form the past returns to the future volatility for all the three indexes. Finally, the last finding suggests that the volatility process on the returns of one index cannot be determined by changes in the returns of the other two indexes. Keywords: Currency carry, uncovered interest rate parity, DAX, DJIA, G10 currency, granger causality, VAR, EGARCH[1,1]

The introduction of the single currency (Euro) in Europe has been referred to as the ‘world’s largest economic experiment’ and has led to major research on the effects of the adoption of a common currency on economic activity with considerable emphasis on its effect on trade flows at the macroeconomic level. However, the investigation of the euro effect on individual sectors has received very little attention and this provides the motivation for the research. The main contribution of this thesis is to the sectoral analysis of the single currency’s effect on bi-lateral trade flows, specifically the effects on the transport equipment manufacturing sector. In order to achieve this, a comparison of the different estimation methods applied in the gravity model literature will be employed to investigate this effect and to identify the factors affecting trade in this sector. This study uses a panel data set which comprises the most recent information on bilateral trade for the EU15 countries from 1990 to 2008. This research aims to build on the results obtained in previous studies by employing a more refined empirical methodology and associated tests. The purpose of the tests is to ensure that the euro’s effect on trade is isolated from the other pro- trade policies of the European integration processes, particularly the introduction of the Single Market. The desirable feature of this approach is that, while other studies limit their attention to a particular issue (zero trade flow, time trend, sectoral analysis, cross-correlation, etc.), very few, if any, apply a selection of techniques. Overall, the results demonstrate that the single currency’s effect on trade in this sector is limited with only the fixed effects formulation with year dummy variables showing a significant positive effect of the euro. An obvious policy implication for countries looking to adopt a single currency is that they should be cautious regarding the potential for growth in intra-bloc trade in a particular sector, although they will benefit from the on-going process of integration.

This dissertation spans topics related to global trade, oil prices, optimum currency areas, the eurozone, monetary independence, capital controls and the international monetary policy trilemma. It consists of four chapters and three essays. Chapter one provides a brief summary of all three essays. Chapter two investigates the impact of oil prices on global trade. It is concluded that when oil prices increase, countries start trading relatively more with their neighbors. As an application this chapter provides a new estimate of the eurozone effect on trade. Chapter three continues to study the eurozone and asks whether it is an optimum currency area using the member countries’ desired monetary policies. It is concluded that Greece, Spain, and Ireland have desired policies that are the least compatible with the common euro policy and are therefore the least likely to have formed an optimum currency area with the euro. Chapter four provides a new methodology in testing the international trilemma hypothesis. It is concluded that the trilemma holds in the context of the Asian countries.

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Bakgrund: Riksbanken har haft sedelmonopol sedan 1897, vilket har inneburit att de sedan dess har haft ensamrätt att ge ut pengar. Den teknologiska utvecklingen och den ökade användningen av internet har lett till att virtuella samfund har utvecklats och i vissa fall har dessa samhällen skapat sin egen valuta. Bitcoin är världens första helt decentraliserade valuta och baserades i början av sin existens på teknisk nyfikenhet för en handfull hobbyister. Under de senaste åren har efterfrågan på bitcoins ökat vilket i sin tur har lett till att kursen stigit explosivartat.Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att kartlägga och analysera de transaktionskostnader som kan uppstå när Bitcoin används som betalningsmedel, samt jämföra dessa kostnader med de transaktionskostnader som är förenade med användandet av traditionella betalningsmedel. Genomförande: Studien har genomförts genom en blandning av ett kvalitativt och ett kvantitativt tillvägagångssätt samt genom en bearbetning av transaktionskostnadsteorin inom ramen för ny institutionell teori. Empirin består av tre delar där studien inleds med en litteraturstudie för att läsaren ska få en inblick i vad Bitcoin är och hur valutan fungerar. Därefter presenteras det kvalitativa angreppssättet i form av semistrukturerade intervjuer och avslutningsvis presenteras studiens kvantitativa angreppsätt i form av en enkätstudie för att kartlägga användandet av bitcoin.Slutsats: Studien visar att transaktionskostnaderna för Bitcoin är högre än för traditionella betalningsmedel i och med att valutan i dagsläget är beroende av den traditionella infrastrukturen för betalningar samt att dess användare därutöver frånsäger sig det skyddsnät som traditionella betalningsmedel omfattas av. För att Bitcoin ska bli ett etablerat betalningsmedel krävs det att de grundläggande funktionerna för pengar uppfylls. Något som studien visar är bristfälligt i nuläge / Background: The Swedish central bank has had a currency monopoly since 1897, which has meant that they since then have had exclusive right to issue money. Technological advances and the increasing use of the Internet has led to an evolvement of virtual communities and in some cases these communities created their own currency. Bitcoin is the worlds first fully decentralized currency. In the beginning the currency was based on technological curiosity to a handful of hobbyists. In recent years demand for bitcoins has increased, which has led to a dramatic price increase.Aim: The purpose of this thesis is to identify and analyze the transaction costs that may arise when Bitcoin is used as means of payment, and to compare these costs with the transaction costs associated with the use of traditional means of payment. Completion: The study was conducted through a mixture of qualitative and quantitative approaches as well as a processing of the transaction cost theory in the context of new institutional theory. The empirical material consists of three parts in which the study begins with a literature review for the reader to get a glimpse of what Bitcoin is and how the currency works. The qualitative approach is in the form of semi-structured interviews and finally the study's quantitative approach is presented in the form of a questionnaire to survey the use of bitcoin.Conclusion: The study shows that Bitcoins transaction costs are higher than conventional means of payments when account is taken to the fact that the currency is dependent on the current financial structure. The user furthermore disclaims the safety net that traditional means of payments offer. For Bitcoin to become an established means of payment it requires that the basic functions of money are fulfilled which the study shows is inadequate.

There are four chapters in my dissertation. Chapter one gives a brief introduction of the three essays. Chapter two studies the choice of exchange rate regimes in East Asia using a business-cycle approach. My results suggest that countries in East Asia are driven mainly by country-specific shocks, making more rigid exchange rate regimes less desirable. Neither a yen bloc nor a dollar bloc has been identified in East Asia. However, Japan seems more influential to countries such as Korea and Taiwan. An optimum currency area does not seem feasible for East Asia, at least in the short run. Chapter three applies the cointegration and causality analyses to the real effective exchange rates to study the degree of monetary integration in East Asia. I find that the ASEAN and the NIE countries, respectively, have achieved some degree of integration, but not East Asia as a whole. The yen is found to move closely with the NIE currencies. However, neither the yen nor the dollar imposes a dominant driving force on the East Asian currencies. My results suggest that East Asia is not an optimum currency area. Chapter four expands the traditional monetary model of exchange rate determination into a structural VAR model incorporating various capital flows and the balance of trade in addition to the macroeconomic fundamentals. The model is then applied to the Australian dollar (AUD), the Canadian dollar (CAD), and the US dollar (USD) exchange rates over 19802004. I find that capital flows, especially portfolio investments, explain a major portion of the exchange rate fluctuations in the relatively small and open economies such as Australia and Canada in the short-to-medium run. The impacts of capital flows are limited to the US dollar exchange rates. Among the macroeconomic fundamentals, the interest rate plays an important role in exchange rate determination for all three currencies. The results imply that different capital flows do influence exchange rates differently and are important determinants of exchange rates.

My dissertation investigates three separate issues pertaining to a country's financial development. The first essay provides an introduction to the three essays. The second essay examines the combined effect of financial development and human capital on economic growth. While both financial development and human capital are individually positively correlated with growth, the literature has not emphasized their combined effect on growth. In this essay, I analyze the extent to which the effect of financial development on growth depends on a country's level of human capital. Using dynamic panel difference and system GMM, as well as the pooled OLS, I find that an increase in human capital decreases the impact of financial development on growth and that countries that lack financial development can achieve greater economic growth through an improvement in human capital. The third essay analyzes how currency unions affect the financial development of a country. This essay tests two forms of asymmetries on the effect of currency unions on financial development; I analyze if currency unions have an equal effect on various forms of financial development, and whether high-income and low-income countries are impacted differently. I find some evidence in favor of both forms of asymmetries with pooled OLS and fixed effect estimation using data on 152 countries and territories over the 1970-2006 time period. The fourth essay tests how financial development affects firms' export market participations and the volume of exports utilizing a firm-level data set which incorporates about 43,500 firms from 80 countries for the time period 2002-2009. Using an instrumental variable approach, I find that a country's financial development negatively affects the extensive margin of trade and positively affects the intensive margin of trade. Furthermore, this study finds that financial development has a disproportionate positive affect on firms with a higher level of external dependence for both margins of trade. Finally, I find that financial development exerts an asymmetric effect on young and mature firms in their export participations but not on the volume of exports.