本論文包含兩個部份。第一個部份討論怎樣用不變方差彈性 (CEV)隨機過程的擬有界 (quasi-bounded)特性去描述擁有目標區特色 (target zone feature)貨幣的動態。利用最大相似估計法 (maximum likelihood estimation)，我們能夠決定不變方差彈性隨機過程是否能為港元聯繫匯率制度給予一個有效描述。這個資訊能給予我們對聯繫匯率制度有更好的理解和一些其他用途，例如為擁有目標區特色的貨幣期權定價。第二個部份會討論利用相似變換 (similarity transformations)找出擁有雙面界限和不變方差彈性隨機過程的相關金融資產的首次穿越時間分佈 (first-passage-time distribution)。首次穿越時間分佈在計量金融上擁有廣泛應用，例如很多路徑相關奇異期權 (exotic options of path dependent nature)問題便和首次穿越時間分佈有密切關係。 / This thesis consists of two parts. The first part discusses how CEV processes can be used as a quasi-bounded process to describe the dynamics of the target zone feature of a currency. By means of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), we are able to determine if the CEV process provides a valid description of the dynamics of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. This information gives us a better understanding of the linked exchange rate system of Hong Kong dollar and other applications such as currency option pricing with target zone feature. The second part describes the method, through similarity transformations, of finding a first-passage-time (FPT) distribution associated with two boundaries of an underlying asset following CEV process. There are wide applications of the FPT distribution in the quantitative finance. For instance, many exotic options of path dependent nature are closely related to the FPT distribution. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Chu, Shek Wai = 以不變方差彈性隨機過程建模港元聯繫匯率制度 / 朱石惠. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 92-95). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chu, Shek Wai = Yi bu bian fang cha tan xing sui ji guo cheng jian mo Gang yuan lian xi hui lu zhi du / Zhu Shihui. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Overview --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Hong Kong Dollar Linked Exchange Rate System and Quasi-Bounded Processes --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- CEV Processes and CEV Options Pricing Model --- p.4 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Reviews of Exchange Rate Modelling --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Krugman’s Model --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Jong, Drost, and Werker’s Model (Jump-diffusion Model) --- p.8 / Chapter 2.3 --- Larsen and Sorensen’s Model (Jacobi Diffusion Model) --- p.10 / Chapter 2.4 --- Ingersoll’s Model --- p.11 / Chapter 2.5 --- Summary --- p.12 / Chapter 3 --- Modelling HKD Exchange Rate by CEV Processes --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.14 / Chapter 3.2 --- Principle Of Maximum Likelihood Estimation --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Definition of Likelihood --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators --- p.19 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Estimating Asymptotic Variance of Maximum Likelihood Estimators --- p.22 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Discrete-time Econometric Specification --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2.5 --- The Numerical Optimization Algorithm --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3 --- Quasi-bounded CEV Model --- p.25 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Hong Kong Exchange Rate Data --- p.26 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Quasi-bounded Property of CEV Model --- p.29 / Chapter 3.4 --- The Estimation Results and Conclusions --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Introduction --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Square Root Processes --- p.38 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Constant Elasticity of Variance Processes --- p.45 / Chapter 3.4.4 --- Summary of results --- p.51 / Chapter 4 --- CEV Exotic Options Pricing --- p.54 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.54 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Barrier Options --- p.55 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Lookback Options --- p.56 / Chapter 4.2 --- CEV Probability Density Function --- p.58 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Conditional Probability Density Function --- p.58 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Interpolation Scheme, Estimates and Bounds --- p.66 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Multi-Stage Approximation Scheme --- p.68 / Chapter 4.3 --- Pricing CEV Exotic Options --- p.70 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Pricing barrier options and numerical examples --- p.70 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Pricing lookback options and numerical examples --- p.74 / Chapter 4.4 --- Sensitivity Analysis --- p.78 / Chapter 4.4.1 --- Analysis for up-and-out call option --- p.80 / Chapter 4.4.2 --- Analysis for Floating strike lookback put option --- p.86 / Bibliography --- p.92

Sobre os novos rumos das relações econômicas no ambiente virtual há que se observar a criação da moeda digital e suas implicações para o mercado de financeiro e para a soberania estatal mundial. O desenvolvimento de uma moeda digital é uma tecnologia que desafia a legitimidade do regime estatal como controlador da moeda e coloca a questão primordial: se a emissão de moeda, vinculada ao Estado, é expressão da soberania nacional na ordem econômica e se seria possível a soberania nacional na ordem econômica, em uma modelo de moedas privadas, isto é, sem controle por parte de uma autoridade central. / The creation of the digital currency and its implications for the financial market and world state sovereignty must be observed on the new directions of economic relations in the virtual environment. The development of a digital currency is a technology that challenges the legitimacy of the state regime as the controller of the currency and asks the primary question: if the issue of money, linked to the State, is an expression of national sovereignty in the economic order and if sovereignty would be possible national in the economic order, in a model of private currencies, that is, without control by a central authority.

[pt] A partir do método de Rigobon (2001) para identificação de um sistema de equações simultâneas na presença de heterocedasticidade, aprofundamos a discussão sobre a relação entre os preços internacionais de commodities e o câmbio real para países com determinadas características. Ao contrário da abordagem tradicional da literatura de commodity currency nesta dissertação admitimos a possibilidade dos preços de commodities serem endógenos em relação à taxa de câmbio, trabalhamos com séries que incorporam mais de um regime cambial e, através de diversas simulações, encontramos evidências de que hipóteses sobre a estacionariedade das séries, em torno da raiz unitária, não afetam significativamente os resultados do exercício empírico. Salvo algumas restrições, os resultados derivados sugerem que o câmbio real do Brasil deve apreciar em resposta a elevações nos preços internacionais das principais commodities que exporta, mas a elasticidade dos preços de commodities em relação ao câmbio não pode ser considerada estatisticamente diferente de zero. Para a Nova Zelândia, as evidências indicam que os efeitos contemporâneos dos movimentos da taxa de câmbio sobre os preços das suas principais commodities exportadas é significativo, embora o efeito dos preços das commodities sobre o câmbio deva ser considerado estatisticamente igual a zero. / [en] Using Rigobons (2001) identification method for simultaneous equations models, based on the heteroskedasticity of the structural shocks, we analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and commodity prices for specific countries. Instead of the traditional approach of the commodity currency literature, we allow for endogenous effects of the exchange rates on the commodity prices, and we work with series that span two exchange rate regimes. From the results of some simulations, we also find out that the lack of assumptions about the stationarity of the series, close to the unity root, do not harm the conclusions of the empirical exercise. In spite of some caveats, the results of the empirical investigation suggest that the real exchange rate of Brazil should appreciate in response to a rise in the prices of its most important export commodities. However, the elasticity of the commodity prices to the exchange rate can not be considered different from zero, implicating that the country does not have much market power in the trade of these commodities. For New Zealand, the evidence indicates that exchange rate variations are important for the determination of the commodity prices, although the impact of commodity prices on the exchange rate is statistically equal to zero.

This thesis consists of five separate papers, broadly within the field of International Finance. The first paper, An Empirical Analysis of the Currency Denomination in International Trade, investigates the choice of currency in international trade transactions by Swedish exporting firms. It uses an extensive dataset on payment transactions between foreign importers and Swedish exporting firms. It is the first paper to examine currency invoicing at such a disaggregated level. The main findings are that high exchange rate volatility reduces the likelihood of using the importers currency while high GDP and GDP per capita in the importing country increases the likelihood. A large market share of a third country increases the likelihood of using the third country's currency. A further finding is a decreased use of Swedish krona and a rise in the use of the euro as a vehicle currency. State Dependent Pricing, Invoicing Currency and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, written jointly with Martin Flodén, analyzes exchange rate pass-through in a dynamic model with menu costs. In the paper, we provide a link between the fixed and flexible price analyses by specifying a dynamic framework with exogenous choice of exporting currency, but with endogenous pricing decisions. We consider the pricing strategies of firms that produce in a home country, sell on a foreign market, and can change the price in response to exchange rate fluctuations, while being subject to menu costs. Our main finding is that when the exporter prefers to set price in the importer’s currency, the exporter also changes prices less frequently than if price was set in the exporter’s home currency. The intuition is that in this setting, the optimal currency choice is the one that on average minimizes the difference between fixed and flexible price profits, and thereby the frequency of price updates. When the importer’s currency is preferred it leads to limited pass-through and a low correlation between exchange rate movements and import prices. The third paper, Demand and Distance: Evidence of Cross Border Shopping , written jointly with Marcus Asplund and Richard Friberg, uses data from 287 Swedish municipalities to estimate how responsive alcohol sales are to foreign prices, and relate the sensitivity to the location's distance to the border. Typical results suggest that the elasticity with respect to the foreign price is around 0.4 in the border region; moving 200 (400) kilometers inland reduces it to 0.2 (0.1).  For example, a 10 percent reduction in the Danish price of spirits causes a fall in per capita sales of roughly 4 percent at the border (Malmö). This large cross price elasticity is almost half the own price elasticity. The effect diminishes gradually as one moves further from the border, but fall in sales is estimated to drop below 1 percent only at 460 kilometer from the border. Not until we reach 1000 kilometers can we reject that the effect is zero. Common Currencies and Equity Prices: Evidence from a Political Event, uses a political event, the Swedish referendum on whether or not to join the European Monetary Union (EMU), as a natural experiment to examine the relationship between common currencies and the market value of exporting firms. If Sweden would have voted to join the EMU, exchange rate uncertainty as well as transaction costs would have been greatly reduced for many exporting companies. Prior to the referendum, these potential gains (adjusted for the probability of joining) should have been included in equity prices. The day after the referendum that probability of was zero and one would expect a decline in equity prices of exporting firms. We find evidence of statistically significant negative abnormal returns on the trading day after the election for only two out of fifteen examined industry indices. The small effects found in this study are in line with earlier research that finds a weak relationship between exchange rates and equity prices. The fifth paper, When is a Lower Exchange Rate Pass-Through Associated with Greater Exchange Rate Exposure?, written jointly with Martin Flodén and Witness Simbanegavi, we study the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate exposure (the relation between profits and exchange rates) under flexible prices. We introduce a convex cost function and study the effects of changing the elasticity of costs with respect to output. We do this both in a model of monopolistic competition as well as in the oligopoly models used by Bodnar et al (2002). We find that increasing the convexity of costs reduces both exchange rate pass-through and exposure, both under monopolistic competition and in duopoly settings. The conclusion is thus that if industries differ mainly on the supply side, this would imply a positive correlation between pass-through and exposure. However, our extension does not affect the result in Bodnar et al. that exchange rate pass-through and exposure should be negatively correlated across industries if industries differ mainly on the demand side, more specifically in the substitutability between domestically produced and imported goods. / <p>Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006, S. 3-12: sammanfattning, s. 15-120: 5 uppsatser</p>

自布列敦森林協議崩潰以來，世界各個主要工業國家紛紛改採浮動匯率制度。從此全球開始進入了貨幣戰爭的時段，確實，一國匯率貶值將有利於出口產業，包含長期處於熊市的美元與近期來持續貶值的日圓皆是，且透過匯率貶值，亦可改善國際貿易長期呈現赤字的情況。但匯率是雙向的，一國貨幣貶值，另一國貨幣必然相對升值。中國便是最好的例子，隨著經濟的崛起，中國迅速的累積了大量貿易盈餘與外匯存底，並在之後的金融風暴中，為了維護中國經濟不受衝擊，中國政府將人民幣兌美元的匯兌水平壓低至8.28人民幣兌1美元。此時，各國包含歐、美與日本等工業大國開始抨擊中國政府刻意操作匯率，並持續對中國施壓要求開放匯率的自由化。因此，本文最主要的目的是研究究竟人民幣匯率是否如外界所言的被大幅低估，被低估的程度為多少，並希望透過本篇論文來看到人 民幣未來前景的展望。 結果顯示，儘管人民幣過去確實遭到大幅低估，幅度約在30%~65%之間不等。但隨著中國政府對人民幣匯率政策的改革與開放，人民幣被低估的情況確實持續的改善，根據本篇研究，如今人民幣僅受到些微低估，與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)2013年5月份所發佈的年度評估報告所顯示的一致，突顯出美國政府與國會議員實在是沒有任何理由在人民幣匯率上持續大做文章。人民幣未來的方向應朝著擴大國際化與自由匯兌的方向前進，在不久的將來，人民幣或將成為全球第 3大的國際貨幣。 / From the collapse of Bretton Woods Agreements until now, every country changed their currency policy from fix rate to floating rate. From then on, the world began the war of currency. Indeed, when a country’s currency depreciates, it will have some positive effect on export industries and can also improve the long term trade deficit such as US and Japan. But when one currency depreciate, there must be a currency that appreciate. For example, China. Thanks to the quickly growth of economy, China gained a lot of trade surplus and accumulated huge foreign exchange reserve in a short time. And during the financial crisis, China government fixed the exchange rate at 8.28 RMB to 1 US dollar in order to protect their economy. At that time, many country including Europe, USA and Japan, criticized that China government attempt to control the exchange rate and they continually put pressure on China government asking China government to give up the control of exchange rate. As a result, this paper focus on the exchange rate of China RMB in order to find out whether the RMB is really been undervalued and how much the RMB has been undervalued. And we hope that we can look into the future of the China RMB. According to the research, we find out that although RMB had really been overvalued in the past. The situation has improved after the revolution and become more open of China government. Our result shows that recently the China RMB is just been slightly undervalued in accordance with the report published by IMF in 2013/05. Those report shows that there is no reason for the US to make any criticize on the exchange rate of China RMB. We think that what China government should do is to make RMB more internationalized and free of exchange. We believe that RMB may become one of the biggest currencies in the future.

University, Diss.--Bonn, 2005.

[pt] Esta tese de doutorado consiste de três ensaios relacionados ao gerenciamento de risco cambial e ao desempenho das empresas brasileiras em períodos de crises cambiais. O primeiro ensaio testa se as perdas patrimoniais implicadas pelas depreciações cambiais reduzem o investimento das empresas. Encontramos que, entre 2001 e 2003, empresas com elevados descasamentos cambiais na véspera da crise reduziram seus investimentos em 8,1 pontos percentuais, comparativamente às demais empresas de capital aberto. Mostramos, também, que a depreciação cambial aumentou a competitividade das empresas exportadoras, mas, ainda assim, implicou perda de 12,5 pontos percentuais no investimento das exportadoras com descasamentos cambiais, relativamente às demais exportadoras. Essas quedas estimadas de investimento são economicamente muito relevantes, corroborando a importância dos efeitos patrimoniais negativos das depreciações cambiais. O segundo ensaio investiga se a listagem de ações nos Estados Unidos através de ADRs disciplina as decisões corporativas. Mostramos que as emissões de ADRs induzem uma gestão de risco cambial mais eficiente: em antecipação à crise cambial brasileira de 1999, em média, as empresas com ADRs reduziram em 6,4 pontos percentuais a proporção de descasamento cambial sobre ativos, relativamente às empresas sem ADRs. Resultados adicionais conectam esse forte ajuste à pressão de arbitradores internacionais. Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio testa se as garantias governamentais de que não haverá uma desvalorização significativa do câmbio, implícitas nos regimes de câmbio administrado, estimulam um endividamento excessivo em moeda estrangeira. Dados de empresas brasileiras, antes e depois do fim do regime de câmbio administrado em 1999, sugerem que tais garantias não são relevantes para a decisão de endividamento em moeda estrangeira. / [en] This thesis consists of three essays that relate the currency risk management with the performance of Brazilian firms in currency crises. The first essay tests if the exchange-rate balance sheet effects of the currency depreciation reduce the companies´ investments. We find that, between 2001 and 2003, firms that shortly before the crisis had large currency mismatches decreased their investment rates by 8.1 percentual points, relatively to other public firms. Moreover, we show that the currency depreciation implied large competitive gains for the exporters, and yet the investment of exporters with large currency mismatches fell by 12.5 percentual points, relatively to other exporters. The estimated falls in investment are economically very relevant, thereby corroborating the relevance of negative exchange-rate balance sheet effects of currency depreciation. The second essay investigate if the cross-listing in the U.S., mainly through ADRs, discipline corporate decisions. Using data on the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999, we show that firms with ADRs manage their currency risk more effectively. Anticipating the crisis, ADR firms reduced the average ratio of their currency mismatches over assets by 6.4 percentage points, relatively to other public firms. Additional results link this stronger adjustment to the pressure of international arbitrageurs. Finally, the third essay tests if the government guaranties that there won´t be a large devaluation of the exchange rate, implicitly in a fixed exchange-rate regime, bias corporate borrowing towards foreign currency. Data on Brazilian firms, before and after the end of the fixed exchange rate regime in 1999, suggest that the implicit guarantees do not have a relevant impact on firms´ incentives to issue foreign debt.

Submitted by Fabio Daneluzzi (fdaneluzzi@gmail.com) on 2018-04-08T15:15:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação V20 - Final.pdf: 23221778 bytes, checksum: 08811caddd6c098711b3b93a70d8665c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br) on 2018-04-10T17:20:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação V20 - Final.pdf: 23221778 bytes, checksum: 08811caddd6c098711b3b93a70d8665c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-04-10T17:28:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação V20 - Final.pdf: 23221778 bytes, checksum: 08811caddd6c098711b3b93a70d8665c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-10T17:28:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação V20 - Final.pdf: 23221778 bytes, checksum: 08811caddd6c098711b3b93a70d8665c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-12 / Criptomoedas criadas em blockchain representam um novo modelo de moedas digitais. Caracterizadas por permitirem uma alta descentralização, sem a necessidade de um emissor e controlador central, essas novas moedas têm sido criadas com maior velocidade desde 2009 com o surgimento do Bitcoin, a primeira a se utilizar de tal tecnologia. Nesse contexto, um grupo particular de criptomoedas tem surgido, que nesta pesquisa serão chamadas de 'Criptomoedas Complementares'. Tais criptomoedas visam atender demandas específicas da sociedade como, por exemplo de inclusão financeira, desenvolvimento social ou de preservação ambiental e, em alguns casos, destinadas a comunidades específicas, assim como ocorre com as 'clássicas' moedas complementares e comunitárias. Por ser um fenômeno recente, existem poucos estudos que visam compreendê-lo. Este, portanto, é o objetivo desta pesquisa. A partir de um estudo sobre 28 diferentes criptomoedas complementares e utilizando como base 8 modelos de classificação de moedas complementares e comunitárias já presentes na literatura, esta pesquisa permitiu a criação de uma tipologia específica para tal universo. Composta por 4 dimensões, essa tipologia final permitiu segregar as criptomoedas complementares em 10 diferentes grupos, dando maior clareza sobre suas semelhanças e diferenças em aspectos estratégicos e técnicos. Espera-se que esta pesquisa contribua para que profissionais, instituições e pesquisadores envolvidos ou interessados em temas como finanças solidárias, moedas complementares e criptomoedas possam melhor compreender esse novo fenômeno e suas particularidades, através não apenas do mapeamento de criptomoedas complementares que foi realizado, mas também da tipologia criada, utilizando-a como um modelo para melhor categorizar, diferenciar e comparar projetos desta natureza. / Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies are a new group of digital currency. By allowing a highly decentralization, without the need of a central issuer to control the digital system, those new currencies have been created with increasing speed since 2009 after the emergence of Bitcoin, the first digital currency based on such technology. In this context, a particular group of cryptocurrencies have arisen, called 'Complementary Cryptocurrencies' in this research. These cryptocurrencies seek to meet specific demands of society, such as financial inclusion, social development or environmental preservation, in some cases at specific communities, as well as do the 'traditional' complementary and community currencies. Since this phenomenon is quite new, there are few studies that aim to understand it. This, therefore, is the goal of this research. Through a study of 28 different complementary cryptocurrencies and based on 8 different classification models designed to complementary and community currency already present in the literature, this research allowed the proposal of a new, specific typology for such a universe. Composed by 4 dimensions, this typology allowed to segregate the complementary cryptocurrenciesin 10 different groups, allowing greater clarity about their similarities and differences in strategic and technical aspects. It is expected that this research helps professionals, institutions and researchers involved or interested in themes such as solidarity finance, complementary currencies and cryptocurrency, to understand this new phenomenon and its particularities, not only through the mapping of complementary cryptocurrency done, but also through the typology created, using it as a model to better group, distinguish and compare projects of this nature.

The purpose of the dissertation is to establish a framework with which to assess the prospective gains from regional monetary integration among five neighboring countries in East Africa: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. The neo-classical theory assumes that economic and monetary union would stimulate additional growth in such a union as a whole, with the trickle-down effects of overall development, and would enhance factor mobility, solving the problem of regional disparity automatically. Past experiences of African regionalism have shown that countries that participated in a monetary union were able to pursue credible monetary policies. This economic performance has been credited to their monetary policy discipline. Since countries in East Africa are small both in terms of their individual populations and the respective sizes of their economies, the study concludes that regional integration is a useful way of increasing their economic clout and bargaining power on the global scene. / Economics / Thesis (M. Comm.)

O termo realocação da poupança interna se refere ao fato de que os instrumentos de política econômica e de planejamento econômico que passam a possibilitar o autofinanciamento do Estado pelo mecanismo de emissão monetária só podem ser materializados por meio do lado real da economia, através da reestruturação do processo de formação da poupança interna. Realocação, neste caso, vem a ser sinônimo de “reutilização” e “alavancagem”, isto é, os instrumentos de formação das finanças públicas são determinados por um mecanismo de criação e de destruição automáticas de moeda e de posterior reutilização da mesma moeda emitida anteriormente. Neste sistema, o Estado determina o volume de recursos públicos através da emissão monetária, pelo fato desta moeda possuir “lastro fiduciário”, em razão de sua respectiva “destruição automática” no momento exato de sua criação. / The term reallocation of domestic saving refers to the fact that the instruments of economic policy and economic planning that allow the self-financing of the State from its own currency by the mechanism of monetary emission can only be materialized in the real economy by the restructuring of the process of formation of the domestic saving. Reallocation in this case comes to be synonymous with “reuse” and “leverage”, that is, public finance techniques are determined by a mechanism for automatic creating and destruction of currency, and subsequent reuse of the same currency issued formerly. In this system, the State determines the amount of available public resources through monetary emission, given that this currency has “real fiduciary backing” based on its respective “automatic destruction” at the exact moment of its creation.