<p>The Table Mountain Group (TMG) Formation is the lowest member of the Cape Supergroup which consists of sediments deposited from early Ordovician to early Carboniferous times, approximately between 500 and 340 million years ago. The Table Mountain Group (TMG) aquifer system is&nbsp / exposed along the west and south coasts of South Africa. It is a regional fractured rock aquifer that has become a major source of bulk water supply to&nbsp / meet the agricultural and urban water requirements of the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. The TMG aquifer system comprises of an approximately 4000 m thick sequence of quartz arenite and minor shale layers deposited in a shallow, but extensive, predominantly eastwest striking&nbsp / asin, changing to a northwest orientation at the west coast. The medium to coarse grain size and relative purity of some of the quartz arenites,&nbsp / together with their well indurated nature and fracturing due to folding and faulting in the fold belt, enhance both the quality of the groundwater and its&nbsp / exploitation potential for agricultural and domestic water supply purposes and its hot springs for recreation. The region is also home to some unique&nbsp / and indigenous floral species (fynbos) of worldwide importance. These and other groundwater dependent vegetation are found on the series of&nbsp / mountains, mountain slopes and valleys in the Cape Peninsula. The hydrogeology of the TMG consists of intermontane and coastal domains which&nbsp / have different properties but are interconnected. The former is characterized by direct recharge from rain and snow melt, deep groundwater circulation with hot springs and low conductivity groundwater. The coastal domain is characterized by shallow groundwater occurrence usually with moderate to&nbsp / poor quality, indirect recharge from rainfall of shallow circulation and where springs occur they are usually cold. The sustainable utilization of the TMG&nbsp / aquifer addressed the issues of the groundwater flow dynamics, recharge and discharge to and from the aquifer / challenges of climate change and climate variability and their potential impact on the aquifer system. The concept of safe yield, recharge and the capture principle and the integration of&nbsp / sustainable yield provided the basis for sustainable utilization with the adaptive management approach. Methodology used included the evaluation of&nbsp / recharge methods and estimates in the TMG aquifer and a GIS based water balance recharge estimation. The evaluation of natural discharges and&nbsp / artificial abstractions from the TMG aquifer system as well as its potential for future development. The Mann-Kendal trend analysis was used to test historical and present records of temperature and rainfall for significant trends as indication for climate variability and change. The determination of&nbsp / variability index of rainfall and standard precipitation index were additional analyses to investigate variability. The use of a case study from the Klein&nbsp / (Little) Karoo Rural Water Supply Scheme (KKRWSS) within the TMG study area was a test case to assess the sustainable utilization of TMG aquifers.&nbsp / Results show that recharge varies in time and space between 1% and 55% of MAP as a result of different hydrostratigraphic units of the TMG based on&nbsp / geology, hydrology, climate, soil, vegetation and landuse patterns however, the average recharge is from 1% to 5% of MAP. The TMG receives recharge&nbsp / mainly through its 37,000 km2 of outcrop largely exposed on mountainous terrain. Natural discharges from the TMG include 11 thermal and numerous&nbsp / cold spring discharges, baseflow to streams and reservoirs, and seepage to the ocean. Results from this study also show increasing temperature&nbsp / trend over the years while rainfall trend generally&nbsp / remain unchanged in the study area. Rainfall variability persists hence the potential for floodsand droughts in the region remain. Global and Regional Models predict about 10% to 25% reduction in rainfall and increase in variability in future. Impacts of&nbsp / his change in climate will affect the different types of aquifers in various ways. Increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall will increase&nbsp / evapotranspiration, reduce surface flows and eventually reduce shallow aquifer resources. Coastal aquifers risk upsurge in salinisation from sea level&nbsp / rise and increase in abstractions from dwindling surface water resources. While floods increase the risk of contamination to shallow aquifers droughts&nbsp / put pressure on all aquifers especially deep aquifers which are considered to be more reliable due to the fact that they are far removed from surface conditions. Future population growth and increase in freshwater demand will put more pressure on groundwater. Recharge to groundwater have been&nbsp / over-estimated in certain areas in the past leading to high abstraction rates from boreholes causing extensive groundwater storage depletion evident by high decline in groundwater levels in these areas and hampering sustainable management of the aquifer resources. Over-abstraction have resulted in&nbsp / loss of stream flow and baseflow reduction to streams during summer, complete loss of springs and reduction of flow to others. Flow to wetlands,&nbsp / riparian vegetation, and sometimes loss and shifts in dependent ecosystems have also resulted from over-abstraction. Sustainability has spatial and&nbsp / temporal implications due to changing climate and demand. The study recommends adaptive management practices in which several factors are&nbsp / considered in managing groundwater together with surface water resources in order to maintain ecological and environmental integrity. The KKRWSS&nbsp / and other groundwater supply schemes in the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces demonstrate the huge potential of the TMG to provide freshwatersupply for domestic and irrigation water needs however, the huge decline in groundwater levels due to over-abstraction in the KKRWSS and&nbsp / other groundwater schemes underscores the need for sustainable utilization of the TMG groundwater resources for present and future generations with&nbsp / minimal impacts on the quality, dependent hydrological and ecosystems as well as the environment.</p>

<p>The Table Mountain Group (TMG) Formation is the lowest member of the Cape Supergroup which consists of sediments deposited from early Ordovician to early Carboniferous times, approximately between 500 and 340 million years ago. The Table Mountain Group (TMG) aquifer system is&nbsp / exposed along the west and south coasts of South Africa. It is a regional fractured rock aquifer that has become a major source of bulk water supply to&nbsp / meet the agricultural and urban water requirements of the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. The TMG aquifer system comprises of an approximately 4000 m thick sequence of quartz arenite and minor shale layers deposited in a shallow, but extensive, predominantly eastwest striking&nbsp / asin, changing to a northwest orientation at the west coast. The medium to coarse grain size and relative purity of some of the quartz arenites,&nbsp / together with their well indurated nature and fracturing due to folding and faulting in the fold belt, enhance both the quality of the groundwater and its&nbsp / exploitation potential for agricultural and domestic water supply purposes and its hot springs for recreation. The region is also home to some unique&nbsp / and indigenous floral species (fynbos) of worldwide importance. These and other groundwater dependent vegetation are found on the series of&nbsp / mountains, mountain slopes and valleys in the Cape Peninsula. The hydrogeology of the TMG consists of intermontane and coastal domains which&nbsp / have different properties but are interconnected. The former is characterized by direct recharge from rain and snow melt, deep groundwater circulation with hot springs and low conductivity groundwater. The coastal domain is characterized by shallow groundwater occurrence usually with moderate to&nbsp / poor quality, indirect recharge from rainfall of shallow circulation and where springs occur they are usually cold. The sustainable utilization of the TMG&nbsp / aquifer addressed the issues of the groundwater flow dynamics, recharge and discharge to and from the aquifer / challenges of climate change and climate variability and their potential impact on the aquifer system. The concept of safe yield, recharge and the capture principle and the integration of&nbsp / sustainable yield provided the basis for sustainable utilization with the adaptive management approach. Methodology used included the evaluation of&nbsp / recharge methods and estimates in the TMG aquifer and a GIS based water balance recharge estimation. The evaluation of natural discharges and&nbsp / artificial abstractions from the TMG aquifer system as well as its potential for future development. The Mann-Kendal trend analysis was used to test historical and present records of temperature and rainfall for significant trends as indication for climate variability and change. The determination of&nbsp / variability index of rainfall and standard precipitation index were additional analyses to investigate variability. The use of a case study from the Klein&nbsp / (Little) Karoo Rural Water Supply Scheme (KKRWSS) within the TMG study area was a test case to assess the sustainable utilization of TMG aquifers.&nbsp / Results show that recharge varies in time and space between 1% and 55% of MAP as a result of different hydrostratigraphic units of the TMG based on&nbsp / geology, hydrology, climate, soil, vegetation and landuse patterns however, the average recharge is from 1% to 5% of MAP. The TMG receives recharge&nbsp / mainly through its 37,000 km2 of outcrop largely exposed on mountainous terrain. Natural discharges from the TMG include 11 thermal and numerous&nbsp / cold spring discharges, baseflow to streams and reservoirs, and seepage to the ocean. Results from this study also show increasing temperature&nbsp / trend over the years while rainfall trend generally&nbsp / remain unchanged in the study area. Rainfall variability persists hence the potential for floodsand droughts in the region remain. Global and Regional Models predict about 10% to 25% reduction in rainfall and increase in variability in future. Impacts of&nbsp / his change in climate will affect the different types of aquifers in various ways. Increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall will increase&nbsp / evapotranspiration, reduce surface flows and eventually reduce shallow aquifer resources. Coastal aquifers risk upsurge in salinisation from sea level&nbsp / rise and increase in abstractions from dwindling surface water resources. While floods increase the risk of contamination to shallow aquifers droughts&nbsp / put pressure on all aquifers especially deep aquifers which are considered to be more reliable due to the fact that they are far removed from surface conditions. Future population growth and increase in freshwater demand will put more pressure on groundwater. Recharge to groundwater have been&nbsp / over-estimated in certain areas in the past leading to high abstraction rates from boreholes causing extensive groundwater storage depletion evident by high decline in groundwater levels in these areas and hampering sustainable management of the aquifer resources. Over-abstraction have resulted in&nbsp / loss of stream flow and baseflow reduction to streams during summer, complete loss of springs and reduction of flow to others. Flow to wetlands,&nbsp / riparian vegetation, and sometimes loss and shifts in dependent ecosystems have also resulted from over-abstraction. Sustainability has spatial and&nbsp / temporal implications due to changing climate and demand. The study recommends adaptive management practices in which several factors are&nbsp / considered in managing groundwater together with surface water resources in order to maintain ecological and environmental integrity. The KKRWSS&nbsp / and other groundwater supply schemes in the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces demonstrate the huge potential of the TMG to provide freshwatersupply for domestic and irrigation water needs however, the huge decline in groundwater levels due to over-abstraction in the KKRWSS and&nbsp / other groundwater schemes underscores the need for sustainable utilization of the TMG groundwater resources for present and future generations with&nbsp / minimal impacts on the quality, dependent hydrological and ecosystems as well as the environment.</p>

Climate change threatens to disrupt biological systems around the globe, sparking debate over natural capacity for adaptation in a fragmented landscape. Marine turtles are evolutionarily ancient and have survived millions of years of prehistoric climate change, but are threatened by the rapidity of modern warming and a history of severe overexploitation that has left most populations depleted. This thesis explores a nesting aggregation of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) in northern Cyprus, where a longitudinal programme of both intensive and extensive monitoring enables insight into individual and population level parameters and processes. Nesting on the two coastlines covered by this project is in the early stages of recovery, possibly in response to exhaustive nest protection efforts over the last twenty years. Saturation tagging at one key site allows us to confirm that recruitment of new breeders is an important driver of this trend, and that average clutch frequency has remained stable around three nests per female per year, validating nest-count derived abundance estimates at a regional scale. Concern has been raised, however, regarding recent changes in fishing practices which are impacting the local juvenile neritic phase, which may have a lagged effect on the recovery of this nesting population. A collaborative tracking effort including all other countries with major nesting in the Mediterranean allows us to identify major foraging grounds for this species, with two hotspots accounting for >50% of tracked individuals, as well as coastal and pelagic seasonal corridors of high use. Bycatch levels and mortality rates for turtles in these key areas are largely unknown and should be prioritised for investigation. Hatchling sex ratios from the main study beach are extremely female-biased (estimated 97% female for the twenty year period 1993-2012). A 1oC rise in average incubation temperatures threatens near complete hatchling feminisation on this beach, whilst a 2oC rise could reduce hatch success to less than 50%. Thermal effects on hatchling morphometrics are evident, with a 1oC rise in temperature reducing average length, width and weight by 1%, 2% and 3% respectively. More favourable incubation conditions were found early in the season, in deeper nests laid by larger females, and on beaches of lighter sand. In contrast, adult sex ratios at the main site are male-biased, posing questions regarding sex-specific survival rates and optimal hatchling sex ratios. A phenological shift towards earlier nesting is demonstrated for the first time in this species, and could potentially ameliorate warming effects. Carry-over climate forcing effects from the foraging ground influence the breeding frequency of individuals, driving population level responses in annual magnitude of nesting. This work emphasises the utility and necessity of long-term individual-based monitoring programmes in elucidating population trends and climate responses in iteroparous species with non-annual breeding.

The diploma thesis aims to contribute to the clarification of the process of shaping new EU climate and energy policy and to describe European lobbying groups entering in the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework policy-making process. The thesis aims to assess influence and participation of selected lobbying groups in this policy-making process. The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter is devoted to the theoretical aspects of energy policy, further it provides the definition of basic terms and description of the EU legislative process in terms of lobbying. The second chapter explains energy policy in the context of fight against climate change and defines this issue at international and European level. The last chapter of the thesis deals with the current policy-making process of the 2030 policy framework for climate and energy and specifically focuses on lobbying activities and the intensity of lobbying impact of selected political, governmental and social actors according to the classification of interest groups by Howlett and Ramesh.

La phyllosphère est l’habitat fourni par la partie foliaire des plantes. De nombreuses espèces microbiennes - pathogènes, saprophytes ou mutualistes des plantes - peuplent cet environnement. Ce compartiment microbien influence donc la dynamique et la structure des communautés végétales. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était d’étudier les effets potentiels du changement climatique sur la structure des assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers, et sur la niche écologique des espèces fongiques pathogènes des arbres forestiers. Nous avons pour cela utilisé deux approches, i) l’étude de gradients altitudinaux et ii) la construction de modèles de niche bioclimatique.Les assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers étant encore peu connus, nous avons dans un premier temps décrit leur diversité et quantifié leur variabilité spatiale à l’échelle d’une parcelle forestière.Nos résultats montrent que la phyllosphère d’un arbre forestier abrite quelques centaines d’espèces fongiques, avec quelques espèces dominantes et beaucoup d’espèces rares. Les facteurs structurant ces assemblages incluent à la fois des facteurs abiotiques et biotiques : la température apparaît comme la variable climatique la plus explicative le long d’un gradient altitudinal ; à l’échelle d’une parcelle, la proximité génétique entre arbres est plus déterminante que leur distance géographique.L’analyse des modèles de niche des champignons pathogènes forestiers à l’échelle de la France met en évidence des limitations climatiques, les pluies estivales étant une variable explicative importante.Toutefois, plusieurs espèces introduites occupent déjà la plus grande part de la distribution de leur hôte,sans limitation apparente par le climat. Les effets du changement climatique sur la plupart des pathogènes s’exerceront d’abord indirectement par des effets dépressifs très importants sur l’abondance de leurs arbres-hôtes. Seuls les pathogènes adaptés au biotope méditerranéen verraient leur impact s’accroitre. / Phyllosphere is the habitat provided by the leaves of living plants. Many microbial species -pathogens, saprophytes or mutualists of plants - inhabit this environment. These microbes therefore influence the dynamics and structure of plant communities. The main objective was to study the potential effects of climate change on the structure of phyllosphere fungal assemblages, and on the ecological niche of pathogenic fungal species of forest trees. We used two approaches, i) the study of altitudinal gradients and ii) the construction of bioclimatic niche models. Since phyllosphere fungal assemblages of forest trees are still poorly known, we first described their diversity and quantified their spatial variability at the scale of a forest stand.Our results show that the phyllosphere of a forest tree houses hundreds of fungal species, with few dominant species and many rare species. Factors structuring these assemblages include both abiotic and biotic factors: the temperature appears as the most explanatory variable along an elevation algradient. At the scale of a forest stand, the genetic proximity between trees is more important than the geographic distance. Analysis of the bioclimatic niche models of pathogenic fungi forest at the French scale highlights some climatic limitations, and the summer rainfall is an important explanatory variable. However, many introduced species already occupy the distribution of their host, without apparent climatic limitation. The effects of climate change on most pathogens will be exercised indirectly by very important depressive effects on the abundance of their host trees. Only pathogens adapted to the Mediterranean biotope would increase their impact.

Radiationmanagement (RM), as an option to engineer the climate, is highly controversial and suffers from a number of ethical and regulatory concerns, usually studied in the context of the objective to mitigate the global mean temperature. In this article, we discuss the idea that RM can be differentiated and scaled in several dimensions with potential objectives being to influence a certain climate parameter in a specific region. Some short-lived climate forcers (e.g., tropospheric aerosols) exhibit strong geographical and temporal variability, potentially leading to limited-area climate responses. Marine cloud brightening and thinning or dissolution of cirrus clouds could be operated at a rather local scale. It is therefore conceivable that such schemes could be applied with the objective to influence the climate at a regional scale. From a governance perspective, it is desirable to avoid any substantial climate effects of regional RM outside the target region. This, however, could prove impossible for a sustained, long-term RM. In turn, regional RM during limited time periods could prove more feasible without effects beyond the target area. It may be attractive as it potentially provides the opportunity to target the suppression of some extreme events such as heat waves. Research is needed on the traceability of regional RM, for example, using detection and attribution methods. Incentives and implications of regional RM need to be examined, and new governance options have to be conceived.

Das Nachweisverfahren für die Berechnung der Dauerhaftigkeit von Verkehrsflächen in Asphaltbauweise beruht auf der Bewertung der mechanischen Beanspruchungen, hervorgerufen durch die Verkehrslasten und der Temperatur. Die Materialkennwerte der Asphalte sind stark von der Temperatur abhängig und somit ist eine möglichst exakte Beschreibung der thermischen Zustände von Straßenbefestigungen während der Nutzungszeit von hoher Bedeutung. Die in Deutschland gültigen Prognose- und Dimensionierungsverfahren berücksichtigen standardisierte Temperaturprofile, welche die Temperaturzustände in der Straßenbefestigung in Abhängigkeit der Oberflächentemperaturen charakterisieren. Randparameter wie die Stoffeigenschaften der Baustoffe oder die Geometrie der Straßenkonstruktionen haben danach keinen Einfluss auf die Wärmetransportvorgänge und die daraus ermittelten charakteristischen Temperaturzustände. In den vergangenen Jahren war der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die lokalen klimatischen Bedingungen messbar. Besonders Dürren und Hitzewellen im Sommer führen zu deutlichen Schäden an der Natur. Dies lässt vermuten, dass die Änderung in Folge des Klimawandels einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die Temperaturzustände von Straßenbefestigungen haben. Der Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Arbeit lag auf der Bestimmung eines Verfahrens, mit dessen Hilfe die klimatischen Einflüsse, die Geometrie der Straßenkonstruktion und die stoffspezifischen Materialparameter berücksichtigt werden können. Dazu wurden Simulationsergebnisse der thermischen Zustände von Straßenkonstruktion ausgewertet und ein erweitertes Analyseverfahren zur Bestimmung von repräsentativen Temperaturzuständen entwickelt. Mithilfe eines Clusterverfahrens konnten anhand der stündlichen Temperaturzustände maßgebende Profile (Mittelwertfunktionen) abgeleitet werden, welche die Charakteristiken der Straßenkonstruktion berücksichtigen. Die Mittelwertfunktionen weisen gegenüber den bisherigen Ansätzen eine deutlich verminderte Abweichung zwischen den realen Temperaturzuständen und den zugehörigen synthetisch generierten Temperaturverläufen auf. Mit dem Verfahren der Mittelwertfunktionen wurden detaillierte Analysen der Vulnerabilität der Verkehrsinfrastruktur in Deutschland auf Basis der prognostizierten Einflüsse infolge des Klimawandels durchgeführt. Zu diesem Zweck wurde für jeden Landkreis in Deutschland eine Simulation der thermischen und mechanischen Beanspruchungen durchgeführt und für die Ergebnisse der Nachweis auf Ermüdungsrissbildung an der Unterseite der Asphalttragschicht sowie der Entwicklung der Spurrinnentiefe in Anlehnung an das Dimensionierungsverfahren nach den \citet{RDOAsphalt09} geführt. Abschließend wurde an mehreren Fallbeispielen die Anwendbarkeit des Verfahrens der Mittelwertfunktionen gezeigt. Als Schlussfolgerung dieser Arbeit kann abgeleitet werden, dass die thermischen Zustände in Straßenbefestigungen durch Verwendung der Mittelwertfunktionen mit deutlich geringeren Abweichungen und somit einer höheren Güte im Dimensionierungsverfahren verwendet werden können. Weiterhin wurde festgestellt, dass der Klimawandel einen essenziellen Einfluss auf die Dauerhaftigkeit der Straßenbefestigungen in Asphaltbauweise in ganz Deutschland haben. Es ist zwingend notwendig, Maßnahmen aus den Erkenntnissen dieser Arbeit abzuleiten, um die Resilienz der Infrastruktur gegenüber dem Klimawandel zu erhöhen. / The procedure for dimensioning of asphalt pavements is based on the evaluation of the mechanical stresses caused by traffic loads and temperature effects. The material characteristics of asphalt are strongly dependent on temperature and hence, it is of utmost importance that we acquire the most accurate description of the thermal conditions of asphalt pavements during the life span. The prediction and dimensioning methods take standardised temperature profiles into account, which determine the temperature conditions in the asphalt layers depending on the characteristic surface temperature. Boundary parameters such as the material properties of building materials or the geometry of the pavements, therefore, have no influence on the heat transfer processes and the characteristic temperature conditions derived from them. In recent years, the influence of climate change on local climatic conditions has been quantifiable. Especially, droughts and heat waves in summer have caused significant damage to nature. This is indicative that the changes resulting due to climate change will indeed have a significant impact on the temperature conditions of asphalt pavements in the future. The main focus of this dissertation was the determination of a method that takes into account the climatic influences, the geometry of the road construction and the specific properties of the materials. For this purpose, the thermal conditions of pavements were evaluated by simulating results and an extended analysis method for the determination of relevant temperature conditions was developed. With the help of a cluster method, significant profiles (i.e. mean temperature functions) could be derived from the hourly temperature states, which take the characteristics of the road construction into account. Compared to the previous approaches, the mean temperature functions show a significantly reduced deviation between the real temperature states and the corresponding simulation-generated temperature curves. Using the method of mean temperature functions, detailed analysis of the vulnerability of the transport infrastructure in Germany were carried out on the basis of the predicted future impacts of climate change. For this purpose, a simulation of the thermal and mechanical stresses was carried out for each district in Germany. The results acquired were used to prove the existence of fatigue cracking on the underside of the asphalt base layer and the development of the rut depth based on the dimensioning method according to the \citet{RDOAsphalt09}. As a conclusion of this dissertation, it can be deduced that the thermal conditions in road pavements can be utilised in the dimensioning process by using the mean temperature functions with significantly lower deviations, which would result in superior quality pavements. Furthermore, it was found that climate change has an essential influence on the durability of asphalt pavements throughout Germany. It is imperative to adopt measures from the findings of this work in order to increase the resilience of the German infrastructure to climate change.

Recent climatic extreme events, such as the 2018-2020 drought period, demonstrate that ongoing climate change has a significant impact on our plant ecosystems, resulting in a variety of consequences such as temporal shifts in the growing season, biodiversity loss, and increased tree mortality. Forest ecosystems are especially endangered because the trees’ long lifecycles and their sessile nature impairs the potential to adapt or evade negative impacts in time. Nonetheless, forests are particularly essential because they accomplish key functions in our economic, ecological, and social lives, such as supplying timber, regulating carbon- and water cycling, or providing recreational benefits. Consequently, we need to investigate and comprehend the climatic impact on forest growth at both temporal and spatial scales. Additionally, we must examine the current state of forest vitality and productivity in order to make predictions about forest growth under changing climate. This thesis adds to our understanding of the climate-growth responses of two economically and ecologically important tree species in Central Europe within their low elevational and central distribution ranges: European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). We examine patterns in climate-driven growth responses at different spatiotemporal scales, ranging from regional to site-specific extents, and from retrospective to near real-time monitoring. In addition, we look at the possibility of employing tree-ring width (TRW) and remote-sensing (RS) data to assess forest vitality and productivity. A deeper knowledge of climate-growth responses in European beech and Scots pine will provide a foundation for decision making and forest management, assisting in the development of a resistant and resilient forest of the future. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the research objectives by situating them in the context of the present state of the art, framing the research objectives, introducing the study design, and finally formulating the research questions for this thesis. For that reason, we employ two tree-ring networks with varying spatial scales: the regional-scale Baltic Sea Network and the site-specific BDF-F-Network. The Baltic Sea Network includes TRW data from 119 pine and 55 beech study sites spread throughout the southern Baltic Sea region, which is distinguished by its predominantly medium nutritious soils, low elevation, and transitional climate ranging from maritime to more continental conditions. The BDF-F-Network, situated within the spatial extents of the Baltic Sea Network, spans along a precipitation gradient in northern Germany. It comprises 54 permanent monitoring plots with substantial information on soil and tree status dating back 40 years. During this PhD project, we extended the exhaustive data base of site-specific information by collecting TRW data for the entire network. As a result, the newly established BDF-F-Network acts as the thesis' centering point. In Chapters 2 and 3, we investigate the spatio-temporal growth responses of beech and pine in their low-elevational and central distribution ranges. Both species exhibit species-specific climate-growth responses with similar patterns at different spatial scales, i.e. when comparing the Baltic Sea and BDF-F-Network. While beech growth is predominantly impacted by summer drought conditions, winter temperature has the greatest impact on pine. We show that the main climatic drivers stay stable across spatial scales, whereas secondary climatic drivers, or climatic drivers with weaker correlations, may vary. Further, we investigate temporal instabilities in climate-growth responses for both networks by applying spatial segregation analyses and comparing growth responses for an early and a later period. We show that during the last few decades, both beech and pine have responded instable to their main climatic drivers, with increased sensitivity to summer drought and winter temperature, respectively. These temporal instabilities are visible at both regional and site-specific scales. Furthermore, Chapter 3 addresses how non-climatic and site-specific soil- and stand characteristics may influence tree growth across the BDF-F-Network's precipitation gradient. We use multilinear regression modeling to examine how stand parameters such as average tree height, diameter at breast height, and TRW differ across the gradient, and if they are impacted by soil water availability or soil type. However, our findings indicate no significant differences in site-specific soil- and stand-characteristics, with the exception of a minor effect on average tree height of European beech. In Chapter 4, we estimate the potential of TRW to assess long-term trends in beech vitality. At 9 sites, we compare the growth trends, climate sensitivities, and drought resistance of 10-20 pairs of vital and non-vital trees that are visually classified by crown condition. Moreover, we use individual heterozygozity as a proxy to determine if differences in growth behavior are caused by genetic predisposition. Surprisingly, growth responses and individual heterozygozity are similar in non-/vital trees. At several study sites, some as vital classified trees exhibit an even greater reduction in TRW than non-vital trees. In summary, we show that TRW is a better proxy for assessing long-term trends in tree vitality, compared to crown condition assessments that are defined by a high year-to-year dynamic. Similarly, Chapter 5 seeks to study the potential of satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) series to monitor and evaluate forest productivity using European beech as an example. We employ an interdisciplinary approach by combining medium resolution LAI time series derived from two separate satellite sensors (SPOT-VGT/PROBA-V and MODIS), as well as long-term masting monitoring and TRW data from BDF-F-Network sites. By applying site-specific and across-network correlation analysis, we analyze the link between these three target parameters and identify common climatic drivers. While SPOT-VGT/PROBA-V LAI is negatively correlated with masting and positively correlated with TRW, finer resolved MODIS data does not show any significant relationships. We show that RS data from the SPOT-VGT/PROBA-V sensor could be a useful tool for assessing forest vitality and productivity if the LAI time series are sufficiently long. Furthermore, our findings indicate that masting and TRW are both influenced by summer climate conditions, whereas RS LAI appears to be climatically de-coupled. Our findings suggest that RS data has the potential to explore masting and hence forest productivity, but it should always be evaluated in light of the restrictions of different RS products. Finally, Chapter 6 summarizes the preceding chapters' findings and discusses them in the context of the research questions provided at the beginning of the thesis. / Die jüngsten klimatischen Extremereignisse, wie die Dürreperiode 2018-2020, zeigen, dass sich der anhaltende Klimawandel erheblich auf unsere Pflanzenökosysteme auswirkt. Dies führt zu einer Vielzahl weitreichender Folgen, wie der zeitlichen Verschiebung von Wachstumsperioden, Verlusten in der Biodiversität oder einer erhöhten Waldsterblichkeit. Besonders gefährdet sind hierbei Waldökosysteme, da die langen Lebenszyklen von Bäumen eine schnelle Anpassung an sich ändernde Klimabedingungen stark beeinträchtigen. Jedoch erfüllen vor allem Wälder wichtige Funktionen in unserem wirtschaftlichen, ökologischen und sozialen Leben, z. B. als Holzlieferanten, Regulatoren des Kohlenstoff- und Wasserkreislaufs oder auch als Erholungsraum für die Menschen. Dementsprechend ist es unerlässlich die klimatischen Auswirkungen auf das Waldwachstum sowohl auf zeitlicher als auch auf räumlicher Ebene zu untersuchen und zu verstehen. Zudem müssen wir auch den aktuellen Zustand der Vitalität und Produktivität der Wälder überprüfen, um aussagekräftige Prognosen zum Waldwachstum unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels treffen zu können. Diese Dissertation trägt zu unserem Verständnis der Klimawachstumsreaktionen zweier wirtschaftlich und ökologisch relevanter Baumarten in ihrem ökologisch optimalen Verbreitungsgebiet in Mitteleuropa bei: der Rotbuche (Fagus sylvatica L.) und der Waldkiefer (Pinus sylvestris L.). Hierbei werden die klimabedingten Wachstumsreaktionen auf verschiedenen räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen untersucht, welchen von regionalen bis standortsspezifischen Ausmaßen und von retrospektiven Analysen bis nahezu Echtzeit-Monitoring reichen. Darüber hinaus erörtert diese Arbeit das Potenzial Jahrringdaten (TRW) als auch Fernerkundungsdaten (RS) zur Bewertung der Vitalität und Produktivität von Wäldern beispielhaft an der Rotbuche zu verwenden. Ein tiefreichendes Verständnis der Klima- Wachstumsreaktionen der Rotbuche und der Waldkiefer bietet somit eine gute Basis um bei Fragen zur zukünftigen Waldbewirtschaftung und der Entscheidungsfindung zu unterstützen, sodass wir einen widerstandsfähigen Wald der Zukunft aufbauen können. Kapitel 1 gibt einen Überblick über diese Dissertation, indem es Forschungsfragen in den Kontext des aktuellen Stands der Wissenschaft einordnet, die Forschungsziele erläutert, das Studiendesign vorstellt und schließlich die Forschungsfragen formuliert. Hierbei verwenden wir zwei Jahrringnetzwerke mit unterschiedlichen räumlichen Ausmaßen: das regionale Baltic Sea Netzwerk und das standortspezifische BDF-F-Netzwerk. Das Baltic Sea Netzwerk umfasst TRW-Daten von 119 Kiefern- und 55 Buchen-Standorten, welche sich über die gesamte südliche Ostseeregion erstrecken. Diese Standorte sind durch überwiegend mittelnährstoffreiche Böden, niedrige Höhenprofile und einem Übergangsklima von maritimen zu kontinentalen Bedingungen charakterisiert. Das BDF-F-Netz erstreckt sich entlang eines Niederschlagsgradienten in Norddeutschland und befindet sich somit innerhalb der geographischen Ausdehnungen des Baltic Sea Netzwerkes. Es umfasst 54 permanente Monitoring-Standorte zu denen umfangreichen Informationen zum Boden- und Baumzustand der letzten 40 Jahre vorliegen. Im Rahmen dieses Dissertationsprojektes wurden die umfassenden standortspezifischeren Informationen mit TRW-Daten für das gesamte Netzwerk ergänzt. Das daraus resultierende BDF-F-Netzwerk bildet somit den Dreh- und Angelpunkt der Dissertation. In den Kapiteln 2 und 3 werden die räumlichen und zeitlichen Wachstumsreaktionen von Rotbuche und Waldkiefer in ihren zentralen Verbreitungsgebieten untersucht. Unabhängig von der räumlichen Skala, sprich beim Vergleich von Standorten beider Netzwerke, zeigen beide Baumarten artspezifische Klimawachstumsreaktionen. Während die Rotbuche primär von Sommertrockenheit beeinflusst wird, ist das Wachstum der Waldkiefer maßgeblich von den Temperaturen im Winter geprägt. Zudem zeigt diese Arbeit, dass die primären Klimatreiber über verschiedene räumliche Skalen hinweg stabil bleiben. Sekundäre Klimatreiber, welche durch schwächeren Korrelationen zwischen Klima und Wachstum charakterisiert sind, können jedoch über geographische Ausbreitungen hinweg variieren. Weiterhin wurden zeitliche Instabilitäten in den Klimawachstumsreaktionen für beide Netzwerke mittels räumlicher Segregationsanalysen und dem Vergleich einer frühen und einer späteren zeitlichen Periode untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sowohl Rotbuche als auch Waldkiefer Instabilitäten in ihren Hauptklimatreibern aufweisen. In den letzten Jahrzehnten stieg die Sensitivität der Rotbuche auf Sommertrockenheit signifikant an, während die Waldkiefer immer stärker auf Wintertemperaturen reagiert. Diese zeitlichen Instabilitäten können in beiden Netzwerken, sowohl auf überregionalen als auch auf standortortsspezifischer Skala, nachgewiesen werden. Kapitel 3 beleuchtet den Einfluss nichtklimatischer und standortspezifische Merkmale des Bodens und Bestandes auf das Baumwachstum. Hierbei werden entlang des Niederschlagsgradienten des BDF-F-Netzwerks Unterschiede in der durchschnittlichen Baumhöhe, des Brusthöhendurchmesser und TRW mittels multilinearer Regressionsmodellierung untersucht. Zudem werden die Einflüsse der Bodenwasserverfügbarkeit als auch der Bodenart erörtert. Abgesehen von einem marginalen Einfluss auf die durchschnittliche Baumhöhe der Rotbuche bestehen keine signifikanten Unterschiede in den Bestands- und Bodencharakteristika des Standorts. Die zugrundeliegenden Ursachen werden in Hinblick auf Erkenntnisse der aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Literatur und des Studiendesigns des BDF-F-Netzwerkes besprochen. Kapitel 4 untersucht das Potenzial TRW-Daten zu verwenden, um langfristige Trends in der Vitalität der Rotbuche zu bewerten. Hierbei wurden in 9 Beständen 10-20 Baumpaare, bestehend aus je einem vitalen und einem nicht vitalen Baum, visuell nach Kronenzustand klassifiziert. Somit können Unterschiede in den langfristigen Wachstumstrends, der Klimasensitivität und der Trockenheits-resistenz zwischen nicht-/vitalen Individuen analysiert werden. Zudem wird die individuelle Heterozygotie als Proxy für genetische Vielfalt der Rotbuche herangezogen, um genetisch bedingte Unterschiede im Wachstumsverhalten zu beleuchten. Überraschenderweise unterscheiden sich weder die Wachstumsreaktionen noch die individuelle Heterozygotie bei nicht-/vitalen Rotbuchen. Zudem zeigen einige vitale Bäume eine höhere TRW-Reduktion im Vergleich zu nicht vitalen Bäumen. Dementsprechend zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass TRW ein guter Proxy für die Bewertung langfristiger Trends in der Vitalität von Bäumen zu sein scheint, wohingegen Vitalitätsansprachen mittels visueller Abschätzung des Kronenzustands aufgrund einer hohen Jahr-zu-Jahr-Dynamik eine Momentaufnahme der Baumvitalität darstellen. Kapitel 5 erörtert die Frage, inwieweit wir satellitenbasierte Daten (RS) mit mittlerer Auflösung zur Überwachung und Bewertung der Waldproduktivität verwenden können und untersucht dies am Beispiel der Rotbuche. In diesem interdisziplinären Ansatz werden Fernerkundungsdaten des Blattflächenindex (LAI) von zwei Satellitensensoren (SPOT-VGT/PROBA-V und MODIS) mit Daten zum Mastverhalten und der TRW der Rotbuche innerhalb des BDF-F-Netzwerks kombiniert. Durch standortspezifische und netzwerkweite Korrelationsanalysen wird der Zusammenhang dieser drei Zielparameter analysiert und anhand gemeinsamer klimatischer Treiber diskutiert. Während SPOT-VGT/PROBA-V LAI negativ mit Mast und positiv mit TRW korreliert, gibt es keine signifikanten Korrelationen in höher aufgelösten MODIS-Daten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass bei ausreichend langen Zeitreihen SPOT-VGT/PROBA-V-Daten ein nützliches Werkzeug zur Bewertung der Waldvitalität und -produktivität sein können. Darüber hinaus scheint RS LAI klimatisch entkoppelt zu sein, während sowohl Mastverhalten als auch TRW hauptsächlich vom Sommerklima beeinflusst werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass satellitenbasierte LAI-Daten das Potential besitzen das Mastverhalten und somit die Waldproduktivität zu erfassen und zu analysieren. Jedoch sollten etwaige Interpretationen und Rückschlüsse immer in Bezug zu technologischen und methodologischen Limitationen verschiedener RS-Produkte bewertet werden. Abschließend fasst Kapitel 6 die Ergebnisse der vorherigen Kapitel zusammen und diskutiert sie im Zusammenhang mit den Forschungsfragen, die zu Beginn der Arbeit gestellt wurden.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:14:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5209.pdf: 2337691 bytes, checksum: c2c9421ebd99ae696c125edd08ccc0ca (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-25 / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais / It has been observed that the same governance model was configurated in the brazilian climate change policy, characterizing by this policy to the responsible institutions three factors in comon: (1) institutional diversity, (2) cooperation e (3) political competition. Trough a Case Study, it was attempted to focus, as an unity of analisys, on the Interministerial Comission on Global Climate Change (CIMMGC in portuguese) to observe in what measure the bigger institutional diversity, characterized by the elevated inclusiveness of political actors and the accountability reinforcement in the political decision making process, promoted more cooperation and less political competition among the political actors involved in CIMMGC. In this scenery, the research question was: In the contexto of a diverse institutional composition and of it s political decision making process rules (supported by the unanimity rule), why, by observing the political decision making processo f the CIMMGC, wasn t possible to point a decision making paralisys or an institutional immobility in it s acitivities? The Hypothesis was that the institutional drawing of the CIMMGC worked as a political vector of dynamism through the decision making rules developed during the institutionalization of brazilian climate change policy. Were applied in this study, specially, two integrated data collection strategies: (1) query and analisys of institutional reports issued specially by the CIMMGC, but also issued by other institutional organisms vinculated to the governance of brazilian climate change policy and (2) interviews in depth and semi-structured with policy makers directly involved with national climate change policy and specially allocated in the CIMMGC. The results pointed that a bigger political inclusiveness in the decision making process of the brazilian climate change policy incurred in no absence of democratic governance. In the case of the CIMMGC, the brazilian climate change policy consensual model reinforced the accountability mechanisms in the political process without losing the institutional dynamism and the decision making capability in the political goals granted to the institution by the Climate Change National Policy and Plan. / Observou-se que um mesmo modelo de governança foi configurado na política brasileira de mudança do clima, caracterizando em comum às instituições responsáveis por essa política, três fatores: (1) diversidade institucional, (2) cooperação e (3) competição política. Como um Estudo de Caso, buscou-se tomar, como unidade de análise, a Comissão Interministerial de Mudança Global do Clima (CIMMGC) para efeito de observar em que medida a maior diversidade institucional, caracterizada pela elevada inclusividade de atores políticos e o reforço de accountability no processo político decisório, fomentou mais cooperação e menos competição política entre os atores políticos envolvidos na CIMMGC. Diante desse cenário, a pergunta de pesquisa foi: diante de uma composição institucional diversa e das regras de seu processo decisório (amparadas na regra de unanimidade), por que, ao se observar o processo político da CIMMGC, não foi possível apontar uma paralisia decisória ou o imobilismo institucional em suas atividades? A hipótese foi que o desenho institucional da CIMMGC funcionou como vetor político de dinamismo pelas regras decisórias desenvolvidas ao longo da institucionalização da política brasileira de mudança do clima. Foram aplicadas nesta pesquisa, especialmente, duas estratégias para a coleta de dados integrados: houve a (1) consulta e análise de relatórios institucionais emitidos especialmente pela CIMGC, mas também pelos demais organismos institucionais vinculados à governança da política brasileira de mudança do clima e; (2) entrevistas em profundidade e semi-estruturadas com os policy makers envolvidos diretamente com a política nacional de mudança do clima e especialmente alocados na CIMMGC, o que permitiu mapear o caráter horizontal no processo de tomada de decisão da CIMMGC. Os resultados apontaram que a maior inclusividade política no processo decisório da política brasileira de mudança do clima não incorreu em ausência de governabilidade democrática. No caso da CIMMGC, o modelo consociativo da política brasileira de mudança do clima reforçou mecanismos de accountability no processo político sem perder, em contrapartida, dinamismo institucional e capacidade decisória nos objetivos políticos outorgados à instituição pela Política e Plano Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima.

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