My dissertation consists of three essays on labor supply responses, along the extensive margin (participation into the labor force) and along the intensive margin (intensity of work on the job). The first two essays focus on the labor supply responsiveness of single women with children to taxation and welfare programs. The third essay investigates the effects of marriage, the wage rate, and the associated tax rate on men's labor supply. In the first essay, to avoid bias from the fact that labor supply outcomes are being driven by self-selection, I build a dynamic stochastic discrete choice model to investigate the long run effects of the earned income tax credit and welfare policies on single mothers' labor supply. Simulated method of moments is used to estimate parameters of this dynamic model, based on March CPS data files from 1964 to 2013. I compare the performance of the dynamic stochastic discrete choice model, a static model, and a reduced-form model. My analysis concludes that the dynamic stochastic discrete choice model captures the simultaneous impact of the state variables on the predicted employment decision. My study provides evidence of the long-run positive effect of public policy on low income families in a life-cycle setting. This essay also emphasizes the importance of education in increasing single mothers' labor supply. The second essay is designed to identify factors that help single mothers leave TANF within a short span of time. I find strong evidence for the importance of child support assistance to single mothers' success in exiting TANF with a job. I uncover evidence that work-related activities do not induce TANF participants to leave within a short span of time. My analysis also suggests that health issues significantly limit the ability of single mothers to exit TANF. In the third essay, the main research question is how marital status affects the elasticity of the labor supply of males with respect to wages and taxes, in a life-cycle setting. A dynamic panel data model, which extends the literature on dynamic labor supply, indicates that the elasticity of men's labor supply with respect to wages and taxes is affected by marital status. The empirical results using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data show that men who are continuously married to the same wife have a lower average Frisch elasticity than others. / Ph. D.

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Governments in many counties are taking measures to promote electric vehicles. An important strategy is to build enough charging infrastructures so as to alleviate drivers’ range anxieties. To help the governments make plans about the public charging network, we propose a multi-stage stochastic integer programming model to determine the locations and capacities of charging facilities over finite planning horizons. We use the logit choice model to estimate drivers’ random choices towards different charging stations nearby. The objective of the model is to minimize the expected total cost of installing and operating the charging facilities. Two simple algorithms are designed to solve this model, an approximation algorithm and a heuristic algorithm. A branch-and-price algorithm is also designed for this model, and some implementation details and improvement methods are explained. We do some numerical experiments to test the efficiency of these algorithms. Each algorithm has advantages over the CPLEX MIP solver in terms of solution time or solution quality. A case study of Oakville is presented to demonstrate the process of designing an electric vehicle public charging network using this model in Canada. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

[pt] Os mercados de carbono oferecem uma promissora abordagem para enfrentar as mudanças climáticas. No entanto, seu avanço encontra desafios, especialmente na medição precisa da redução de emissões provenientes de atividades relacionadas à floresta. Este artigo apresenta um modelo dinâmico de escolha discreta adaptado para avaliar tais emissões, utilizando uma nova base de dados de dados em painel sobre o uso da terra em propriedades privadas, contendo suas características e participação em projetos de carbono. Nossa análise revela que aproximadamente 23 por cento dos estoques de carbono dentro de projetos de carbono florestal em propriedades privadas na Amazônia brasileira não têm exposição a riscos de desmatamento e, portanto, não devem ser negociados como créditos de carbono. Através de cenários simulados, demonstramos que maiores preços de carbono ou menores custos de participação nesses projetos poderiam aumentar substancialmente a oferta de emissões de carbono evitadas. Intervenções como redução de custos, subsídios de preço ou melhoras regulatorias poderiam recrudescer a oferta e contribuir para os esforços de mitigação das mudanças climáticas. Por fim, identificamos propriedades adequadas para participação futura em projetos, com o objetivo de mitigar os riscos de investimento e otimizar os retornos esperados. / [en] Carbon markets offer a promising avenue for tackling climate change, yet their advancement encounters challenges, notably in accurately measuring emissions avoidance from forest-related activities. This paper introduces a dynamic discrete choice model tailored for assessing such emissions, using a novel database of panel data on private property land use, characteristics, and carbon project participation. Our analysis reveals that approximately 23 percent of carbon stocks within forestry carbon projects on private properties in the Brazilian Amazon lack exposure to deforestation risks and should therefore not be tradable as carbon credits. Through simulated scenarios, we demonstrate that elevated carbon prices or reduced participation costs in these projects could substantially augment the supply of avoided carbon emissions. Interventions such as cost reductions, price subsidies or regulatory improvements could bolster supply and contribute to climate change mitigation efforts. Lastly, we identify suitable properties for future project participation, aiming to mitigate investment risks and optimize expected returns.

This thesis addresses decision mechanisms in foraging situations, using laboratory experiments with European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Building on previous work from the Behavioural Ecology Research Group, I chose the Sequential Choice Model (SCM; reviewed in Kacelnik et al., 2011 − Appendix 1) as a starting point, and tested its premises and predictions generalising it to different experimental protocols. Classical decision models do not relate choice preferences to behaviour towards isolated options, and assume that choices involve time-consuming evaluations of all alternatives. However, previous work found that starlings’ responses to isolated options predict preference in choices, and that response times to single-option encounters are not reliably longer than response times in choices. Since, in the wild, options are normally encountered sequentially, dealing with isolated options can be considered of greater biological, and possibly psychological, significance than simultaneous decisions. Following this rationale, the SCM postulates that when multiple simultaneous stimuli are met they are processed in parallel, each competing against the memory of background opportunities, rather than comparing present options to each other. At the time of launching this research, these ideas had only been applied to protocols involving just two deterministic alternatives and offering no chance to explore the influence of learning history (i.e., how animals learn to choose; see Chapter 4). To increase their relevance and offer more rigorous tests, I generalised them to situations with multiple (see Chapters 2, 4 and 5), and in some cases probabilistic alternatives (see Chapter 3), controlling the learning regime. I combined these extensions with tests of economic rationality (see Chapter 6), a concept that is presently facing sustained debates. Integrating the result of all experimental chapters (see Chapter 7), my results support the notion that behaviour in single-option encounters is fundamental to understand choice behaviour. The important issue of whether choices involve a decision time cost or the opposite, a shortening of response times, remains unsolved, as neither could be evidenced reliably.

文化公共財無法透過一般市場機制評估其價格，但應如何衡量其經濟價值？本研究以臺北市萬華區糖廍文化園區為案例，以條件評估法為理論模型，並以電話訪問、網路調查及面訪訪問等3種方式獲得1,612份問卷進行分析，結果顯示願付價格會隨著人口統計變量和民眾對文化資產保存的態度而有所不同，得到平均每人每次至少消費文化公共財之願付價格約247元，如以每人平均消費一次計算價值，在95%信賴區間下，臺北市萬華區糖廍公園週邊7里約1,094萬元、臺北市萬華區約4,788萬元、臺北市約6.7億元。在目前政府財政困窘情況下，如何將上開數據轉化成地方財源收入，有效將各古蹟或歷史建築充分活化再利用將是一個值得關注的議題。 / By using the contingent valuation method, this study estimates the value of the Tangbu Cultural Park in Taipei City as the value of cultural public goods cannot be directly observed through the markets. Based on 1,612 samples collected by the phone interview, on-site interview, and internet survey, we explore the factors that influence the willingness to pay (WTP) and estimate the resulting WTP on the cultural public goods. The empirical results show that the WTP are varied with the demographics and attitudes toward the cultural assets and the estimated average individual WTP per year is about 247 NTD. It turns out that the corresponding total WTP per year is 10.94 million NTD in the surrounding area of the Cultural Park, 47.88 million NTD in the Wanhua District of Taipei City, or 670 million NTD in Taipei City. The study can shed some light on the revival plans and budget arrangements of the cultural public goods.

Apresenta-se um procedimento para estimativa da matriz origem-destino (O/D) a partir de um modelo de escolha discreta em combinação com uma matriz O/D de transporte público, a qual pode ser estimada de maneira relativamente fácil e rápida. O modelo de escolha discreta utilizado para realizar a divisão modal é o modelo logit multinomial. A calibração do modelo logit é realizada com base em 505 observações e considerando três situações: a população de viajantes sem segmentação, com segmentação segundo posse de automóvel no domicílio, e com segmentação segundo a distância de viagem. Analisa-se a precisão da estimativa do número de viagens quando as zonas de controle que formam a área de estudo são divididas segundo o critério de distância de acesso às linhas de ônibus. Na verificação realizada são empregados dados obtidos da pesquisa domiciliar realizada na cidade de Bauru, SP. Os erros cometidos na estimativa são medidos e comparados com os resultados obtidos na pesquisa domiciliar sem expansão. O trabalho demostrou experimentalmente que o procedimento proposto é uma alternativa viável para se obter a distribuição de viagens e, portanto, para determinar a matriz O/D. / A procedure is presented for estimating an origin-destination (O/D) matrix using a discrete choice model jointly with a public transport O/D matrix; the latter being relatively easy and fast to obtain. A multinomial logit discrete choice model is used to determine the mode split of travelers among several available modes. The model is estimated using a sample of 505 observations chosen from a household 0/D survey in the city of Bauru, state of Sao Paulo. This survey is used throughout to verify the results of the proposed methodology. Three different models are considered: one without segmentation of the population, one with segmentation according to car ownership and one with segmentation according to travel distance. An examination is made of the changes on the level of precision of the number of trips estimated with the division of the control zones that conform the study area; the aforementioned division was carried out on the basis of an access distance to the bus network criterion. The estimation errors are measured and compared to the unexpanded O/D survey results. The research shows empirically that the proposed procedure can be used to obtain the distribution of trips and hence to determine an aggregate O/D matrix.

Die vorliegende Arbeit besteht aus vier Aufsätzen, die sich mit der Modellierung von Markenwahlverhalten und Markentreue beschäftigen. Der erste Aufsatz gibt eine Einführung in das Nested Logit Modell und weist auf die Existenz von zwei unterschiedlichen Spezifikationen hin. Das utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) und das non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) Modell besitzen unterschiedliche Eigenschaften, die die Schätzergebnisse beeinflussen. Mit einer Simulationsstudie werden die Konsequenzen der Verwendung verschiedener Softwarepakete demonstriert. Außerdem wird gezeigt, dass nur die UMNL Spezifikation bei Auferlegung einer Parameterrestriktion mit der Zufallsnutzentheorie konform ist. Der zweite Aufsatz untersucht anhand von realen Haushaltspaneldaten den Erfolg einer Familienmarkenstrategie. Die Signaling Theorie liefert einen Rahmen für die dem Markenwahlverhalten zugrunde liegenden psychologischen Prozesse zur Entstehung und Erklärung von produktkategorieübergreifender Markentreue. In einer empirischen Studie wird untersucht, inwieweit in einer Kategorie markentreue Kunden dieser Marke auch in anderen Produktkategorien treu sind. Es wird ein Markentreue-Hebel-Index entwickelt. Im dritten Aufsatz stehen die psychologischen Determinanten von kategorieübergreifenden Zusammenhängen im Markenwahlverhalten im Mittelpunkt. In einer empirischen Studie wird die Risikoaversion als entscheidender Bestimmungsfaktor von kategorieübergreifender Markentreue untersucht. Die konsumentenspezifische Risikoaversion wird dabei über Innovativeness und Status Quo Bias erfasst. Im vierten Aufsatz wird das Hybride Wahlmodell einem breiten Marketingpublikum vorgestellt. Klassische Wahlmodelle gehen davon aus, dass das beobachtbare Verhalten das Resultat eines nicht spezifizierten Evaluationsprozesses des Individuums ist. Der kausalanalytische Ansatz hingegen erlaubt die Spezifikation nicht direkt messbarer Faktoren als latente Variablen und kann somit Wahlmodelle sinnvoll ergänzen. / This thesis is composed of four essays that pick up topics in brand choice and brand loyalty modeling. The first essay gives an introduction to the nested logit model and points attention to the existence of two different specifications. The utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) model and the non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) model have different properties which impact the estimation results. In a simulation study, the consequences of the usage of different software packages for model estimation on the estimation results is demonstrated. It is also shown that only the UMNL specification with an imposed parameter restriction is consistent with the underlying random utility theory. The second essay investigates the success of an umbrella branding strategy using household panel data. Signaling theory provides a framework for the underlying psychological processes in consumers'' brand choice behavior and can contribute in the formation and explanation of loyalty to the brand in multiple categories. An empirical study determines whether there is a tendency for loyal consumers from one product category to be loyal to the same brand in other product categories as well. Therefore, a cross-category brand loyalty leverage index is developed. In the third essay, consumer-specific psychological determinants of cross-category relations between brand loyal choice decisions are discussed. In an empirical study, the concept of risk aversion is considered as the key determinant of cross-category brand loyalty. Consumers'' risk aversion is derived from their innovativeness and status quo bias. In the fourth essay, the hybrid choice model is introduced to the broad marketing audience. Traditional choice models assume that observable behavior results from an unspecified evaluation process of the observed individual. The causal-analytic approach offers the possibility to specify not directly measurable factors as latent variables, and can thus reasonably supplement choice models.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Danilo Marques de Mendonca.pdf: 845535 bytes, checksum: 668ae8796a8ad81784166717cbbe69bc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-28 / After the period of monetary stabilization started with the Real Plan in 1994 , the credit market has shown annual growth rates of 20 %. About 40 % of this growth came from the credit market for individuals . This paper analyzed the profile of the families who have credit expenses, and what changes in their characteristics can cause any effect in their propensity to take credit . For this purpose we applied binary logit choice model based on microdata from the Household Budget Survey (POF 2008 / 09 ) of the IBGE, in an attempt to measure the probability of the family take a loan. For this, we used categorical variables relating to the constitution of families, such as education level, sex, race and age of household head, and other information on the composition of household expenditures found in POF. The data suggest that the two most important factors to increase the likelihood of family borrowing is the age of the household head and income per capita. However other factors also contribute significantly, such as the existence of financial investment spending , expend with reform the household or even health spending, children's age, sex, race and education of household head / Após o período de estabilização monetária iniciado com o Plano Real em 1994, o mercado de crédito brasileiro vem apresentando taxas de crescimento anuais nominais acima de 20%. Cerca de 40% deste crescimento advêm do mercado de crédito direcionado às pessoas físicas. Neste trabalho é analisado o perfil das famílias que possuem despesas com crédito, e quais mudanças em suas características podem causar alterações em sua propensão a tomar crédito. Para tal objetivo foi aplicado o modelo de escolha binária logit à base dos microdados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF 2008/09) do IBGE, na tentativa de mensurar a probabilidade da família ser tomadora de crédito. Para tanto, são usadas variáveis categóricas referentes à constituição das famílias, como: grau de escolaridade, sexo, raça e idade do chefe da família, além de outras informações sobre a composição das despesas familiares encontradas na POF. Os dados sugerem que os fatores mais relevantes a aumentar a probabilidade da família tomar empréstimos são a idade do chefe da família e a renda per capita. No entanto outros fatores também contribuem significativamente, tais como a existência de gastos com aplicação financeira, gastos com reforma do domicílio ou mesmo com saúde emergencial, idade dos filhos, sexo, raça e educação do chefe da família

Apresenta-se um procedimento para estimativa da matriz origem-destino (O/D) a partir de um modelo de escolha discreta em combinação com uma matriz O/D de transporte público, a qual pode ser estimada de maneira relativamente fácil e rápida. O modelo de escolha discreta utilizado para realizar a divisão modal é o modelo logit multinomial. A calibração do modelo logit é realizada com base em 505 observações e considerando três situações: a população de viajantes sem segmentação, com segmentação segundo posse de automóvel no domicílio, e com segmentação segundo a distância de viagem. Analisa-se a precisão da estimativa do número de viagens quando as zonas de controle que formam a área de estudo são divididas segundo o critério de distância de acesso às linhas de ônibus. Na verificação realizada são empregados dados obtidos da pesquisa domiciliar realizada na cidade de Bauru, SP. Os erros cometidos na estimativa são medidos e comparados com os resultados obtidos na pesquisa domiciliar sem expansão. O trabalho demostrou experimentalmente que o procedimento proposto é uma alternativa viável para se obter a distribuição de viagens e, portanto, para determinar a matriz O/D. / A procedure is presented for estimating an origin-destination (O/D) matrix using a discrete choice model jointly with a public transport O/D matrix; the latter being relatively easy and fast to obtain. A multinomial logit discrete choice model is used to determine the mode split of travelers among several available modes. The model is estimated using a sample of 505 observations chosen from a household 0/D survey in the city of Bauru, state of Sao Paulo. This survey is used throughout to verify the results of the proposed methodology. Three different models are considered: one without segmentation of the population, one with segmentation according to car ownership and one with segmentation according to travel distance. An examination is made of the changes on the level of precision of the number of trips estimated with the division of the control zones that conform the study area; the aforementioned division was carried out on the basis of an access distance to the bus network criterion. The estimation errors are measured and compared to the unexpanded O/D survey results. The research shows empirically that the proposed procedure can be used to obtain the distribution of trips and hence to determine an aggregate O/D matrix.