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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis estimates the frequency response of a network where the only data is the output obtained from an Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model driven by a random input. Models of random processes and existing methods for solving ARMA models are examined. The estimation is performed iteratively by using the Yule-Walker Equations in three different methods for the AR part and the Cholesky factorization for the MA part. The AR parameters are estimated initially, then MA parameters are estimated assuming that the AR parameters have been compensated for. After the estimation of each parameter set, the original time series is filtered via the inverse of the last estimate of the transfer function of an AR model or MA model, allowing better and better estimation of each model's coefficients. The iteration refers to the procedure of removing the MA or AR part from the random process in an alternating fashion allowing the creation of an almost pure AR or MA process, respectively. As the iteration continues the estimates are improving. When the iteration reaches a point where the coefficients converse the last VIA and AR model coefficients are retained as final estimates. / http://archive.org/details/armamodeling00kaya / Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy

Some recently discussed stationary processes like fractionally integrated processes cannot be described by low order autoregressive or moving average (ARMA) models rendering the common algorithms for generation estimation and prediction partly very misleading. We offer an unified approach based on the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix which makes these problems exactly solvable in an efficient way. (author's abstract) / Series: Preprint Series / Department of Applied Statistics and Data Processing

Estimation of covariance matrix and its inverse is of great importance in multivariate statistics with broad applications such as dimension reduction, portfolio optimization, linear discriminant analysis and gene expression analysis. However, accurate estimation of covariance or inverse covariance matrices is challenging due to the positive definiteness constraint and large number of parameters, especially in the high-dimensional cases. In this thesis, I develop several approaches for estimating large covariance and inverse covariance matrices with different applications. In Chapter 2, I consider an estimation of time-varying covariance matrices in the analysis of multivariate financial data. An order-invariant Cholesky-log-GARCH model is developed for estimating the time-varying covariance matrices based on the modified Cholesky decomposition. This decomposition provides a statistically interpretable parametrization of the covariance matrix. The key idea of the proposed model is to consider an ensemble estimation of covariance matrix based on the multiple permutations of variables. Chapter 3 investigates the sparse estimation of inverse covariance matrix for the highdimensional data. This problem has attracted wide attention, since zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix imply the conditional independence among variables. I propose an orderinvariant sparse estimator based on the modified Cholesky decomposition. The proposed estimator is obtained by assembling a set of estimates from the multiple permutations of variables. Hard thresholding is imposed on the ensemble Cholesky factor to encourage the sparsity in the estimated inverse covariance matrix. The proposed method is able to catch the correct sparse structure of the inverse covariance matrix. Chapter 4 focuses on the sparse estimation of large covariance matrix. Traditional estimation approach is known to perform poorly in the high dimensions. I propose a positive-definite estimator for the covariance matrix using the modified Cholesky decomposition. Such a decomposition provides a exibility to obtain a set of covariance matrix estimates. The proposed method considers an ensemble estimator as the center" of these available estimates with respect to Frobenius norm. The proposed estimator is not only guaranteed to be positive definite, but also able to catch the underlying sparse structure of the true matrix. / Ph. D.

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Orientador: Eliana Xavier Linhares de Andrade / Banca: Roberto Andreani / Banca: Cleonice Fátima Bracciali / Resumo: O principal objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar, discutir as qualidades e desempenho e provar a convergência de um método iterativo para a solução numérica do problema de autovalores de uma matriz, que chamamos de Método Assemelhado ao de Francis (MAF). O método em questão distingue-se do QR de Francis pela maneira, mais simples e rápida, de se obter as matrizes ortogonais Qk, k = 1; 2. Apresentamos, também, uma comparação entre o MAF e os algoritmos QR de Francis e LR de Rutishauser. / Abstract: The main purpose of this work is to presente, to discuss the qualities and performance and to prove the convergence of an iterative method for the numerical solution of the eigenvalue problem, that we have called the Método Assemelhado ao de Francis (MAF)þþ. This method di ers from the QR method of Francis by providing a simpler and faster technique of getting the unitary matrices Qk; k = 1; 2; We present, also, a comparison analises between the MAF and the QR of Francis and LR of Rutishauser algorithms. / Mestre

This thesis explores the relationship between interest rates, house prices and main macroeconomic variables. In particular, I examine how monetary policy affects house prices in the Czech Republic. The hypotheses assume that an increase in the interest rate that tends to decrease house prices also reduces output and inflation simultaneously. Therefore, the latter would imply that the monetary authority faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. The empirical analysis is based on a vector autoregression model and the monetary policy shock is retrieved by the Cholesky decomposition. As for the results, the findings of the thesis conclude that there is a costly trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability within the Czech economy.

Three different algorithms for the generation of stationary Gaussian time series with given autocorrelation function are presented in this paper. The algorithms have already been suggested in the literature but are not well known and have never been compared before. Interrelations between the different methods, advantages and disadvantages with respect to speed and memory requirements and the range of autocorrelation functions for which the different methods are stable are discussed. The time-complexity of the algorithms and the comparisons of their implementations show that the method twice using the Fourier transform is by far the most efficient if time series of moderate or large length are generated. A tested C-code of the latter algorithm is included as this method is tricky to implement and very difficult to find in the literature. (We know only one reference, that gives a correct algorithm, but there the description is very short and no proof is included.) (author's abstract) / Series: Preprint Series / Department of Applied Statistics and Data Processing

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-02-23Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:26:10Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 oliveira_de_me_sjrp.pdf: 1040006 bytes, checksum: 88dd8fa849febafe8d0aa9bf32892235 (MD5) / O principal objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar, discutir as qualidades e desempenho e provar a convergência de um método iterativo para a solução numérica do problema de autovalores de uma matriz, que chamamos de Método Assemelhado ao de Francis (MAF). O método em questão distingue-se do QR de Francis pela maneira, mais simples e rápida, de se obter as matrizes ortogonais Qk, k = 1; 2. Apresentamos, também, uma comparação entre o MAF e os algoritmos QR de Francis e LR de Rutishauser. / The main purpose of this work is to presente, to discuss the qualities and performance and to prove the convergence of an iterative method for the numerical solution of the eigenvalue problem, that we have called the Método Assemelhado ao de Francis (MAF)þþ. This method di ers from the QR method of Francis by providing a simpler and faster technique of getting the unitary matrices Qk; k = 1; 2; We present, also, a comparison analises between the MAF and the QR of Francis and LR of Rutishauser algorithms.

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