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Drivers of direct commercial real estate returns: evidence from South AfricaMkhabela, Nikiwe January 2016 (has links)
A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for a Master of Science degree in Building to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Construction Economics and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2016 / Background – The South African (SA) real estate sector lacks transparency and there is limited research and robust data on the performance drivers of underlying commercial real estate assets in investment portfolios as opposed to the residential and listed property sectors in the SA context. SA real estate competes internationally and the rapid growth in emerging countries is creating new real estate players and growing competition for real estate investment opportunities (PwC, 2015). It is important for investors in the industry to understand the factors that affect the sector’s performance to be able to plan, review investment strategies, allocate resources efficiently, understand past trends and manage future risks.
Purpose - The purpose of the study is to understand the performance of the SA direct commercial real estate sector and identify the key factors that drive the sector’s total returns in the country. Literature review is conducted to identify factors that drive direct commercial real returns in other countries and the identified drivers are tested for relevancy in the SA market. The study applies SA annual commercial real estate returns published by the International Property Databank (IPD) over the past 20 years, from 1995 to 2014, as dependent variables.
Findings - Using Pearson’s correlation analysis, the study tests for correlations between CRE returns and independent variables; macroeconomic indicators (exogenous factors) and property performance variables (endogenous factors). The study finds gross rental escalation and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates to be highly positively correlated with direct real estate returns. The results provide evidence that gross rental escalation and real GDP have high explanatory values of commercial real estate returns. The study concludes that rental income growth and economic growth are the key drivers of direct commercial real estate total returns.
Value - The findings provide evidence of the correlations that exist between exogenous, endogenous variables and CRE returns and assist in understanding the behaviour of the direct commercial real estate sector. This study sets a basis for real estate investments analysis and the results can be applied in asset allocation strategies by guiding investors on the direction CRE returns could take based on performance of the widely published macroeconomic and property performance variables under study.
Limitations - The limitation to this study is that the dependent variables, SA annual commercial real estate returns, has time series data of 20 variables in its existence and this has restricted the quantitative methodology choice, hence the use of correlation analysis to quantitatively analyse the relationships that exist between CRE returns and the exogenous and endogenous factors. Further research in the topic would include regression analysis to test for causality. This study has implications on real estate investment decision making and contributes to real estate market literature in SA. / MT2017
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Estimating the intra-metropolitan price and volume dynamics of commercial property: empirical study of Hong Kong. / Estimating the intra-metropolitan price & volume dynamics of commercial propertyJanuary 2006 (has links)
Ding Jiajia. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-115). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i-ii / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.vi / List of Figures --- p.ix / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Review of Literature on Rental Adjustment Models --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Review of Literatures on Hedonic Models --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3 --- Review of Literature on Real Estate Dynamics --- p.14 / Chapter 2.4 --- Review of Literature on Markov Chain Models --- p.20 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Data Description and Econometric Method --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1 --- Data Source and Classification --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2 --- Measurement of Variables --- p.25 / Chapter 3.3 --- Grouping Method and Econometric Methodology --- p.28 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Empirical Results --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1 --- Correlation of Volume and ROR --- p.32 / Chapter 4.2 --- Granger Causality Tests --- p.33 / Chapter 4.3 --- Estimation of Markov Chain Model --- p.36 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.40 / Appendix I Comparison of Previous Literatures --- p.43 / Appendix II Definition of Districts and Map --- p.49 / Appendix III Tables --- p.54 / Appendix IV Figures --- p.96 / Appendix V Granger Causality Test --- p.99 / Appendix VI Markov Chain Model --- p.101 / Appendix VII Transition Matrix of Markov Chains of commercial property from 1993-2004 --- p.103 / Appendix VIII Transition Matrix of Markov Chains of Residential Estates from 1992-2004 --- p.107 / Bibliography --- p.112
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Price-trading volume correlation of the Hong Kong office property market.January 2003 (has links)
Feng Dandan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 96-101). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i-ii / Acknowledgements --- p.iii-iv / Table of Contents --- p.v-vi / List of Tables --- p.vii / List of Figures --- p.viii / List of Computer Programs --- p.ix / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Background of the Present Study --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Purpose of the Study --- p.4 / Chapter 1.3 --- Significance of the Research --- p.6 / Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.8 / Chapter 2.1 --- Review of Literatures on Price-Volume Relation in the Housing Market --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Review of Literatures on Price-Volume Relation in the Stock Market --- p.15 / Chapter 2.3 --- Review of Literatures on Commercial Real Estate Market --- p.16 / Chapter 2.4 --- Review of Literatures on Rent-Price Ratio --- p.22 / Chapter 2.5 --- Chapter Summary --- p.24 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Data Description --- p.27 / Chapter 3.1 --- Economic Property Research Center Dataset --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2 --- Sample Selection and Classification --- p.27 / Chapter 3.3 --- Summary of Statistics --- p.28 / Chapter 3.4 --- Chapter Summary --- p.31 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Methodology --- p.33 / Chapter 4.1 --- Measurement --- p.33 / Chapter 4.2 --- Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test --- p.36 / Chapter 4.3 --- Partial Autocorrelation Function --- p.39 / Chapter 4.4 --- Bootstrap Method --- p.41 / Chapter 4.5 --- Granger Causality Test --- p.43 / Chapter 4.6 --- Chapter Summary --- p.46 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Empirical Results --- p.47 / Chapter 5.1 --- Sale Market --- p.48 / Chapter 5.2 --- Rental Market --- p.51 / Chapter 5.3 --- Overlapping Sample --- p.56 / Chapter 5.4 --- Aggregate Market --- p.58 / Chapter 5.5 --- Chapter Summary --- p.62 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Concluding Remarks --- p.64 / Appendix 1. Comparison of Previous Literatures --- p.67 / Appendix 2. Tables --- p.70 / Appendix 3. Figures --- p.77 / Appendix 4. Computer Programs --- p.87 / Bibliography --- p.96
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The correlation of industrial and commercial real estate prices in Hong Kong.January 2004 (has links)
Wei Peiling. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-82). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i-ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv-v / List of Tables --- p.vi-vii / List of Figures --- p.viii / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Review of Literatures on Price relations in Real Estate Markets --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Review of Literatures on Price relations in Stock Markets --- p.7 / Chapter 2.3 --- Review of Literatures on Industrial Real Estate Market --- p.8 / Chapter 2.4 --- Review of Literatures on Measurement of Real Estate Prices --- p.11 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Data Description --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Economic Property Research Center Dataset --- p.14 / Chapter 3.2 --- Sample Selection and Classification --- p.14 / Chapter 3.3 --- Summary of Statistics --- p.15 / Chapter 3.4 --- Chapter Summary --- p.17 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Methodology --- p.18 / Chapter 4.1 --- Measurement --- p.18 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Rate of Return (ROR) as a measure of price level --- p.18 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Number of transactions as a measure of trading volume (Vol.) --- p.19 / Chapter 4.2 --- Unit Roots Test --- p.20 / Chapter 4.3 --- Partial Autocorrelation Function --- p.21 / Chapter 4.4 --- Bootstrap Method --- p.23 / Chapter 4.5 --- Granger Causality Test --- p.23 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Empirical Results --- p.25 / Chapter 5.1 --- Sale Market --- p.25 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Relationships between Prices --- p.25 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Relationships between Trading Volumes --- p.27 / Chapter 5.2 --- Rental Market --- p.28 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Relationships between Rents --- p.28 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Relationships between Trading Volumes --- p.29 / Chapter 5.3 --- Chapter Summary --- p.31 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Concluding Remarks --- p.33 / Appendix 1. Summary of Previous Literatures on Industrial Real Estate --- p.37 / Appendix 2. Tables --- p.41 / Appendix 3. Figures --- p.65 / Appendix 4. Definition of property types --- p.77 / Appendix 5. Example of Perl program used to extract the data from EPRC data sheets --- p.78 / Bibliography --- p.79
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Strategic Development of Commercial Real Estate Company KCRE: CEE Expansion in internationalization framework / Strategický rozvoj společnosti komerčních nemovitostí KCRE: CEE expanze v internacionalizačním rámciPavlas, Michal January 2010 (has links)
Primary aim of this master thesis is to depict an emergence of a professional service firm performing its' activities on the commercial real estate market in the Czech republic and to project future development in CEE region confirming existence of factors leading to fast internationalization of a professional service firm concept with specific attention to a born global concept. The work aims to identify factors of a PSF growth in various dimensions and in various specific markets as well as best practices of other globally operating structures. While the theoretical part of the thesis presents principles of a professional service firm's (PSF) function, commercial real estate market and internationalization, the practical part assumes application and implications for the company Kenoby Group ltd. (KCRE). The academic enrichment of research is derived from the three-dimensional interconnection of the concepts of Professional Service Firm, Commercial Real Estate and Internationalization, Born Global respectively.
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Fastighetsvärderares trygghet i värderingsprocessen / Appraisers assuredness in the appraisal processÖhman, Jessica, Österberg, Robin January 2019 (has links)
Bakgrunden till studien är att den kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden är en säregen marknad, med kännetecken som heterogenitet och illikviditet. Det råder en form av informationsasymmetri mellan olika parter på fastighetsmarknaden, detta på grund av att fastighetsbolag besitter mer information om fastigheterna än andra intressenter på marknaden. Detta samtidigt som det även råder en annan form av informationsasymmetri, att en stor del av fastighetstransaktioner idag sker genom bolagsförvärv, vilket leder till att dessa inte blir publika för allmänheten. Tidigare forskning menar att det finns olika metoder att tillgå vid värdering till verkligt värde samtidigt som professionsteori förklarar hur en yrkesroll som benämns profession arbetar i sin yrkesroll. Syftet med studien är således att med grund i problematiken kring fastighetsvärderingar till verkligt värde, förklara den process som fastighetsvärderare använder sig av för att känna sig trygg i sin värdering. För att besvara syftet med studien tillämpades en kvalitativ metod i form av semistrukturerade intervjuer med auktoriserade fastighetsvärderare i Sverige. Datan bearbetades och analyserades genom transkribering, och kodning genom indelning i kategorier och teman efter ett induktivt tillvägagångssätt. I diskussionen ställdes den teoretiska bakgrunden mot den insamlade empiriska datan. I slutsatsen skrivs att det är flera olika faktorer som skapar trygghet i värderingsprocessen. De värderingsmetoder som finns tillgängliga för en fastighetsvärderare att tillämpa för att värdera kommersiella fastigheter är inte alltid tillräckliga för att eliminera de osäkerheter som möjligtvis kan råda under en värderingsprocess. För att en fastighetsvärderare ska bli trygg i sin värderingsprocess krävs bland annat även erfarenhet, kollegialitet och autonomi. / The background to this thesis lies in the commercial property market’s unique characteristics, such as heterogeneity and illiquidity. There is also information asymmetry between different actors on the market, since the real estate companies have access to more knowledge regarding their properties. At the same time, there is also another form of information asymmetry, since many of the transactions within the real estate market occur through company acquisitions and these are not therefore made public. Previous research implies that there are different methods that can be used when appraising real estate at fair value while profession theory explains how a profession works. The purpose of this study is therefore, based on the complexity surrounding real estate appraisals to fair value, to explain the process an appraiser uses to feel assuredness in the appraisal. To answer the study’s purpose, a qualitative method was adapted by conducting semi-structured interviews with authorized appraisers in Sweden. The collected data were processed and analyzed through transcription and coding via division into categories and themes. An inductive approach was used. In the discussion the theoretical background was put up against the collected empirical data. In the conclusion it is made clear that several different factors create assuredness in the appraisal process. The methods that are available to an appraiser are not always enough to eliminate the uncertainties that might occur during an appraisal process. Experience, collegiality and autonomy are amongst the factors required for an appraiser to reach assuredness in the appraisal process.
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Profit for change: catalysing architecture through commerce and identityLeshaba, Tebogo January 2017 (has links)
Thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of Master of Architecture (Professional) to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Architecture and Planning at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017 / Informal communities seem to thrive due to their ability to invent and adapt resilient organic systems. Although programmes are often conceptualized to intervene in social, economic or institutional settings, very few are able to address what I believe to be the problem underlying in many instances; money. The ability to attract, develop and maintain commerce in a closed system will determine the efficiency and dependency a community will have on external forces.
The quest for a self-sustaining economic system suggests a move towards creating complex commercial urban centres which can operate outside the parameters of a formal economy. History has provided such models, where out of necessity, informal industries have taken structure and found ways to attach to the mainstream economy.
My line of questioning stems from these principles and seeks to explore modes of community empowerment initiatives. The goal is to identify the necessary framework that will allow capitalist constructs to prevail within informal systems.
At the crux of economic emancipation for informal communities in South Africa must exist an environment that compels a shift in attitude for the mobilisation change. The state in its incumbency to deliver radical social transformation is in the best position to act, but history has shown that movements which were born from the society, despite financial, political & social hardships, have the propensity to dramatically advance and flourish along a greater trajectory. / XL2018
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The proximity effects of the planned commercial property development at O.R. Tambo International Airport on adjacent residential propertiesMkhasibe, Menziwezintozonke Skhumbuzo January 2016 (has links)
This Research Report is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Property Development and Management to the Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2016 / The two main traditional revenue streams for airports are aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues. In recent times, factors such as the slowing economic growth, terrorism threats, aircraft fuel hikes and fierce airline competition have contributed in reduced aeronautical revenues. The decline in aeronautical revenues has seen a shift of focus where most international airports now pursue business strategies to increase their non-aeronautical revenues. Airports in developed countries such as Schiphol, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Perth are recorded in literature to have shifted their focus to exploit the vast undeveloped land within the airport precincts through enabling the undeveloped land to be taken up for commercial property developments. This has allowed these airports to increase their non-aeronautical revenues in light of the declining aeronautical revenues.
In South Africa, Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) announced its intention in year 2010 to unlock undeveloped airport land for commercial property developments within the nine airports that it operates. At O.R. Tambo International Airport (one of airports owned by ACSA), ACSA publicly announced the availability of pieces of land within the airport which can be taken up for commercial developments by private investors. One of the pieces of land is located in close proximity to existing airport adjoining residential houses in a suburb called Bonaero Park. Authors in existing literature have discussed availability of both positive and negative proximity effects of commercial properties on adjoining residential houses.
This study researched the proximity effects of one of the proposed commercial property development at O.R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) on the houses in Bonaero Park through analyzing houses sales data of the suburb in the period of 2006 to 2014. A pre-announcement period was defined in the study from 2006 to 2010 and a post-announcement period defined from 2011 to 2014. House sales data from both the pre-announcement and post announcement period was analysed using quantitative methodologies. Qualitative data was gathered through conducting audio recorded interviews with Estate Agents who conducted house sales in Bonaero Park. Findings of the study reveal that the at both the pre-announcement and post-announcement
periods, the South African residential property market was going through a tumultuous period which revealed that the announcement by ACSA to unlock the piece of land located in close proximity to the residential houses in Bonaero Park did not produce positive or negative proximity effects. / MT2017
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Chameleon retail: environment responsive retail in the emerging marketMatondo, Florence S. 29 April 2015 (has links)
Commercial development within the emerging economy needs to simulate, adapt and respond accordingly to its unique environment. By doing so, a mutually beneficial relationship between the different scales of commerce, the community and their host environment is achieved. This thesis will focus on the retail aspect of what is later defined as the vibrant economic node. It will identify the current issues that exist within the community’s retail mode, thereafter, examining the various commercial proposals in similar types of communities. By investigating the area of a proposed development and establishing the status quo and providing the development with information of the brief for the project, this will, in turn, lead to a proposed solution that is more beneficial to the community.
Investigations into cost effective and appropriate technologies that not only benefit the development but also provide an alternative solution to the community’s needs are investigated.
A design proposal that embodies the ideals of what is defined as an environmental responsive commercial development, is brought forward as a demonstration of how a particular element within a framework can be beneficial.
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A framework for mergers and acquisitions due diligence: lessons from selected REITs in South AfricaMabece, Yongama January 2018 (has links)
A research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Building Science in Property Development and Management to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2018 / In April 2013, the South African listed property sector converted from Property
Unit Trust and Property Loan Stock investment structures into a Real Estate
Investment Trust (REIT) structure that is understood globally. This conversion
spurred consolidations in the property market in the form of mergers and
acquisitions. Research shows that mergers and acquisitions tend to have high
failure rates as growth strategies.
It remains unknown how sufficient traditional due diligence is and how it can be
improved to enhance the chances of successful corporate marriages within the
South African REIT market. This paper reviews the aspects of the traditional due
diligence scope which generally comprises of financial, legal and commercial
due diligence in order to determine its adequacy as a decision making tool that
helps reduce the risk of failure in REIT merger and acquisition transactions in
South Africa.
There is consensus in the literature that due diligence is a means to reduce the
risk of merger and acquisition failure, some studies suggest that failure occurs
when due diligence is not done well. This paper uses interviews conducted with
due diligence professionals from seven REIT companies listed on the
Johannesburg Stock Exchange who were involved in large merger and
acquisition transactions in the preceding four years. The interviews were used to
ascertain how the professionals perform due diligence, whether or not they think
that traditional due diligence is sufficient for REIT mergers and acquisitions and
to solicit their views on how the due diligence scope can be expanded.
Transcribed data from each of the interviews was analysed based on three
concurrent sub-processes adapted from the works of Miles and Huberman
(1994) which consist of data reduction, data display and drawing and verifying
conclusions.
The results show that the traditional due diligence scope is not sufficient for REIT
merger and acquisition transactions, a majority of the respondents agree with
this observation. Encouragingly the professionals within the South African REIT
market have a due diligence scope which is already much wider than the
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traditional scope, be that as it may, there is still a high failure rate of 59%
observed in the sample analysed.
Due diligence professionals have a low regard for understanding and resolving
the different companies cultural issues, this is cited in the literature as one of the
contributing factors for merger and acquisition failure. This is an area that can
possibly augment the due diligence cycle and professionals should focus on it in
order to improve the chances of success. The research proposes expanding the
due diligence scope by incorporating strategic due diligence which is forward
looking and it overcomes the challenges of traditional due diligence of relying on
historic information. Strategic due diligence assists the acquirers understand the
target’s future prospects, and it allows the acquirers to determine if the target
prospects fit with their own strategic objectives. This together with a higher focus
on understanding and resolving cultural issues of the merging companies should
augment the traditional scope and ultimately lead to transactions that yield higher
shareholder value. / XL2018
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