Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-03-23T11:39:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marianarezendeesilva.pdf: 2448635 bytes, checksum: 7a91fde9d65f686013a08919648c2f64 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-03-23T12:17:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marianarezendeesilva.pdf: 2448635 bytes, checksum: 7a91fde9d65f686013a08919648c2f64 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-23T12:17:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marianarezendeesilva.pdf: 2448635 bytes, checksum: 7a91fde9d65f686013a08919648c2f64 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-18 / O agravamento dos efeitos do aquecimento global, a volatilidade do preço do petróleo e a preocupação com a segurança energética são questões que contribuem para o aumento dos incentivos para a produção de biocombustíveis e o desenvolvimento de políticas relacionadas. A partir dos anos 2000 regiões como dos Estados Unidos e União Europeia lançaram os mandatos de biocombustíveis, políticas que estabelecem metas de consumo e produção de combustíveis renováveis até o ano de 2020. O crescimento da demanda interna não é acompanhado de um crescimento na oferta interna, precisando assim, importar etanol ou biodiesel. É nesse cenário que surge o Brasil como possível provedor de etanol para essas regiões por conta da disponibilidade de terras para a expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, a alta produtividade dessa commodity e o conhecimento da tecnologia de produção. O principal objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar o papel do Brasil no mercado mundial de biocombustíveis e identificar as implicações causadas pelas políticas de combustíveis renováveis de regiões como Estados Unidos e União Europeia. Para esse fim, foi construído um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável a partir do Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), denominado GTAP-BIOBR. Nesse modelo estão desagregados os setores de biocombustíveis o que favorece a análise do comércio de etanol da cana, que tem como principal produtor o Brasil. A estratégia de análise empregada foi de simular três cenários com choques nas exportações brasileiras de etanol para os Estados Unidos e União Europeia no ano de 2020. Os resultados revelam que a produção de etanol no Brasil cresceria em todas as situações, acompanhado do crescimento do nível de atividade econômica. Por outro lado, o preço do etanol da cana sofreria uma queda e ocorreria perda de bem-estar econômico no país em consequência da piora dos termos de troca. / The worsening effects of global warming, the volatility of oil prices and the concern about energy security are issues that contribute to increasing incentives for the production of biofuels and the development of related policies. Since the 2000’s, regions such as the United States and the European Union have launched the biofuel mandates, policies that set targets for consumption and production of renewable fuels by the year 2020. The growth of domestic demand is not accompanied by a growth in domestic supply, thus needing to import ethanol or biodiesel. It is in this scenario that Brazil emerges as a possible supplier of ethanol to these regions because of the availability of land for the expansion of sugar cane cultivation the high productivity of this commodity and the knowledge of production technology. The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze the role of Brazil in the world biofuels market and to identify the implications caused by the renewable fuel policies of regions such as the United States and the European Union. For this purpose, a Computable General Equilibrium model was constructed from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) called GTAP-BIOBR. In this model, the biofuels sectors are disaggregated, which favors the analysis of the sugarcane ethanol trade, whose main producer is Brazil. The analysis strategy employed was to simulate three scenarios with shocks in Brazilian ethanol exports to the United States and the European Union in the year 2020. The results show that ethanol production in Brazil would increase in all situations, accompanied by the growth of the level of economic activity. On the other hand, the price of sugarcane ethanol would suffer a fall and there would be a loss of economic welfare in the country as a result of the worsening terms of trade.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

Questa tesi, strutturata in tre documenti autonomi ma logicamente connessi, si propone di analizzare alcuni problemi, idee e prospettive relativi allo sviluppo. In particolare, il primo documento “Sviluppo e paradigmi di sviluppo: un’analisi delle visioni prevalenti” fornisce un quadro comparativo dei principali modelli di sviluppo adottati da diversi paesi (visione, azioni specifiche e processi di attuazione) e ne evidenzia specificità, analogie e differenze. Il secondo documento: “Analisi d’impatto delle politiche de degli shocks dei prezzi internazionali: Modelli CGE per un paese non industrializzato importatore netto di petrolio e dipendente dagli aiuti esterni”, mette in luce come le informazioni utilizzabili nei processi di formulazione delle politiche che si ottengono da un modello CGE dipendano sia dalle assunzioni relative alla struttura del modello che dalla struttura del sistema economico oggetto dell’indagine. In particolare, le variazioni del tasso di cambio reale si ripercuotono sul resto del sistema tanto più, quanto più il paese riceve finanziamenti ed aiuti dall’estero. Il terzo documento “Shocks dei prezzi internazionali in Burkina Faso: valutazione degli impatti socio-economici con modelli CGE” si propone di valutare l’impatto degli shocks dei prezzi internazionali di prodotti alimentari, petrolio, fertilizzanti e cotone, avvenuti nella prima decade degli anni 2000, sul sistema socio-economico del Burkina Faso, esempio di paese non industrializzato importatore netto di petrolio e dipendente dagli aiuti esteri. Da una lettura complessiva dei tre documenti emerge che, per assicurare uno sviluppo globale sostenibile nel lungo periodo, alla luce dei problemi di sviluppo emergenti e dei vincoli globali quali il vincolo energetico, i cambiamenti climatici, le disuguaglianze, i conflitti e le migrazioni è necessario rivedere la maggior parte dei paradigmi di sviluppo adottati finora. / This thesis, structured in three individual but logically interlinked papers aims at addressing select development issues, ideas and perspectives. More specifically, the first paper “Development and development paradigms: a (reasoned) review of prevailing visions” provides a comparative analysis of the prevailing development models adopted by different countries (visions, specific actions and implementation processes) and highlights their analogies, differences and specificities. The second paper “Analyzing policy impacts and international price shocks: Alternative Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models for an aid-dependent less-industrialized country”, highlights how relevant information for policy making obtained by CGE models depend both on the assumptions regarding the structure of the model and on the structure of the socio-economic system under investigation. More specifically, the more the country receives foreign grants and loans, the more the variations of the real exchange rate due to price shocks affect the country’s socio-economic system. The third document “International price shocks in Burkina Faso: assessing development impacts with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach” assesses the impact of the international price shocks of food, oil, fertilizers and cotton, occurred in the first decade of the new millennium, on Burkina Faso, a less-industrialized oil-dependent and foreign aid-dependent country. Reading across the three papers of this work, it emerges that, to achieve globally equitable and sustainable development objectives, in the light of the emerging issues and global constraints such as exhaustible fossil energy, climate changes, inequalities conflicts and migrations, it is necessary revising most of the development paradigms adopted so far.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

中國大陸自「改革開放」以來，在經濟體制和結構上有著急遽的轉變，同時，海峽兩岸的經貿互動與依存程度也愈來愈高。因此，能有效分析中國大陸經濟情勢的政策模型，對於台灣與中國大陸的政策制定者與政策研究分析者而言皆十分重要。可計算一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型由於在數據需求的較大彈性及模型結構上的特性，成為中國大陸現今重要的經濟政策模型之一，本研究的目的在於考察、分析中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的研發背景、發展歷程、建模過程、主要政策應用方向及研究結果。 　　本研究的內容及流程如后：（1）依「歷史研究」、「調查研究」來歸納、分析中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程，以及中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展歷程；（2）接著依「文獻研究」來分析、分類本研究所蒐集的中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）；（3）接著依「理論研究」來歸納、分析出可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模（Modeling）；（4）以「可計算一般均衡」（CGE）方法，先依據最新的「1995年度中國投入產出表」，編制出兩張：「中國大陸1995年社會會計矩陣」、「中國大陸1995年金融社會會計矩陣」為模型數據基礎，然後應用中國大陸所研發的兩個可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型（「中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型」、「中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型」）的主要結構和方程式，以說明中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建模過程和政策應用方向及模擬結果。 　　本研究的研究結果如后：（1）中國大陸經濟學研究的發展、實際經濟情況變化和政策制定需要，導致中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型在「改革開放」後的發展可分為「啟蒙研發」和「政策應用」兩個階段；（2）將中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）有系統地分類出「貿易政策問題」、「能源和環境政策問題」、「財政和稅收問題」、「經濟改革和發展策略問題」、「外來衝擊問題」、「貨幣金融問題」、「社會保險問題」等七類實證文獻；（3）應用兩個中國大陸研發的可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，來說明建模（Modeling）與數據編制的過程，並延續、拓展相關的政策模擬研究，分析了環境政策（「綠色導向能源政策」，Green-Oriented Energy Policy：2000年－2015年）與匯率政策（「管理浮動匯率政策」，Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy：1998年）對中國大陸經濟體的影響。 謝 詞 ii 中文提要 iv 英文提要 vi 中文目次 viii 英文目次 ix 表 次 x 圖 次 xi 1. 緒 論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究流程與內容 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程 5 2.2 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型的發展 11 2.3 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型實證文獻回顧 20 3. 可計算一般均衡模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模 32 3.1 可計算一般均衡模型的概念與發展 32 3.2 可計算一般均衡模型的一般性基本結構 36 3.3 可計算一般均衡模型的數據基礎與校準 40 3.4 可計算一般均衡模型的計算機求解與建模過程 42 4. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（1）─中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型 45 4.1 模型的基本結構 45 4.2 模型方程式 49 4.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 57 4.4 政策應用-中國大陸宏觀調控下環境政策之一般均衡分析 61 5. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（II）─中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型 69 5.1 模型的基本結構 69 5.2 模型方程式 71 5.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 73 5.4 政策應用-中國大陸匯率政策之一般均衡分析 78 6. 結 論 83 6.1 本研究主要貢獻 83 6.2 研究限制與建議 84 6.3 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄1. 94 附錄2. 103 / Both the system and structure of Chinese economy have been changed rapidly since the launch of "economic reform and opening to the outside" in Mainland China, and the economic interaction and trade interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China are intenser and closer. Effective policy analysis models for Chinese economy is very important to the policy makers and policy analysis researcher both in Taiwan and Mainland China. The Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model has become one of the most important economic policy analysis model because of its characteristic of higher flexibility on benchmark data and structure. The purpose of this study is to review, investigate and analyze the developmental background, developmental progress, modeling procedure, policy simulations and research results. 　　The brief contents and procedure of this study consist of （1） reviewing on the development of economic research in mainland China and CGE modeling for Chinese economy, （2） reviewing on the literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on Policy Analysis（1978－1998）, （3） reviewing on the development, basic structure, benchmark data and modeling of CGE model, （4） constructing two Chinese Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） tables developed from the most recent 1995 Chinese Input-Output table to be the benchmark data of two CGE models, the "Chinese Economic-Environmental CGE model" and the "Chinese Financial CGE model", which are developed from Chinese government and researchers, and we revise them in this study,（5） applying those two models to show and illustrate the modeling procedure and results of policy simulations of CGE models for Chinese economy. 　　In conclusion and contribution, it is composed of three parts. （1） The development of CGE model in Mainland China can be divided into two ages, "The Beginning"（1978－1991） and "The Take-off"（1992－）, which results from the development of economic research in Mainland China, the rapidly changed economic system and structure of Chinese economy, and government's urgent demands for policy-analysis tools. （2） The literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on policy analysis from 1978 to 1998 can be classified into seven groups－ trade policy, energy and environmental policies, public finance and tax reform policies, economic reform and development strategy, external shocks, monetary and financial policies, and social insurance policy. （3） We apply those two CGE models for Chinese economy to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of environmental policy－ " Green-Oriented Energy Policy"（2000－2015） and the economic impacts of the " Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy"（1998）.