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The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) uses a Water Availability Modeling System (WAM) to support long-term regional and statewide water resources planning and management. The water availability studies are based on the modeling capabilities of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP). This research improves the understanding of decision support tools for short-term river basin management. Current reservoir storage levels must be considered to assess short-term frequencies and reliabilities. Conditional reliability modeling (CRM) is used to assess the likelihood of meeting targets for instream flow, reservoir storage, water supply diversion and hydroelectric power generation in the near future (next month to next several years), conditioned upon preceding storage. This study uses data for the Brazos River Basin from the TCEQ WAM System to assess key complexities of water supply reliability analysis in general and conditional reliability modeling in particular. These complexities include uncertainties associated with river basin hydrology, estimating yield-reliability relationships for individual reservoirs and multiple reservoir systems, conventional long-term planning versus short-term adaptive management and other modeling and analysis issues. The modeling capabilities of WRAP were expanded to support near real-time operation of dams under various stream flow conditions. The sensitivity to changes in modeling options is assessed for short and long-term simulations. Traditional and newly developed methodologies for estimating firm yields and water supply reliabilities are evaluated. Guidelines are developed regarding the practical application of firm yield analyses and conditional reliability modeling. Important applications of this research include real-time decision support during drought and routinely recurring operational planning activities. A case study of the drought of 2009 uses the CRM features of WRAP for these applications.

Functional analysis is a method of behavioural assessment used to determine the environmental variables maintaining a specific behaviour. While functional analysis is often used with individuals with developmental and intellectual disabilities, problem behaviours in people with dementia are rarely assessed using functional analysis methodology. The purpose of the present study was to conduct descriptive and functional analyses of problem behaviours among individuals with dementia to determine: (a) if a descriptive assessment would identify a function of the challenging behaviour assessed; (b) the extent to which stimuli identified in the descriptive assessment were needed to conduct a functional analysis; and (c) if a standard functional analysis is an effective assessment method for this population. The participants were two individuals with dementia who exhibited inappropriate vocalizations, consisting of swearing and delusional speech. For both participants, the results of the descriptive assessments suggested that the function of the behaviour was positive reinforcement in the form of attention from staff members. The findings of the descriptive analyses were confirmed in the functional analyses. The results suggest that a functional analysis informed by a descriptive analysis can identify the function of problem behaviour in individuals with dementia in a residential setting. / May 2016

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Seja {Xn} uma sequência de variáveis aleatórias i.i.d. assumindo valores num alfabeto enumerável. Dada uma coleção de palavras finita, observamos esta sequência até o momento τ em que uma dessas palavras apareça em X1, X2, .....Neste trabalho utilizamos a abordagem de martingais, introduzida por Li (1980) e Gerber e Li (1981), para estudar o tempo de espera até que uma das palavras ocorra pela primeira vez, o tempo médio de τ e a probabilidade de uma palavra ser a primeira a aparecer. / Let {Xn} be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables talking values in an enumerable alphgabet. Given a finite collection of words, we observe this sequence till the moment τ at which one of these words appears as a run. In this work we apply the martingale approach introduced by Li (1980) and Gerber and Li (1981) in order to study the waiting time until one of the words occurs for the first time, the mean of τ and the probability of a word to be first on to appear.

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Submitted by Thaís Saes Giuliani null (thais_saes@hotmail.com) on 2017-12-13T20:19:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Thaís Saes Giuliani Ribeiro.pdf: 1429513 bytes, checksum: 6145616464ae520fc8e8d6211d5e63d2 (MD5) / Submitted by Thaís Saes Giuliani Ribeiro (thais_saes@hotmail.com) on 2017-12-14T11:25:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Thaís Saes Giuliani Ribeiro.pdf: 1429513 bytes, checksum: 6145616464ae520fc8e8d6211d5e63d2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Elza Mitiko Sato null (elzasato@ibilce.unesp.br) on 2017-12-14T12:31:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ribeiro_tsg_me_sjrp.pdf: 1429513 bytes, checksum: 6145616464ae520fc8e8d6211d5e63d2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-12-14T12:31:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ribeiro_tsg_me_sjrp.pdf: 1429513 bytes, checksum: 6145616464ae520fc8e8d6211d5e63d2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-11-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Neste trabalho, mostramos como construir um processo estocástico de Markov e seu espaço de probabilidade a partir das probabilidades de transição e da distribuição inicial. Além disso, mostramos a convergência das matrizes de transição utilizando como ferramenta conhecimentos de Álgebra Linear. A aplicação das cadeias de Markov num contexto voltado para o Ensino Médio é mostrado no último capítulo, onde procuramos oferecer aos alunos a oportunidade de ter uma visão mais ampla de como a Matemática pode ser aplicada em outras áreas do conhecimento. / In this work, we show how to construct a stochastic Markov process and its probability space from the transition probabilities and the initial distribution. In addition, we show to investigate the convergence of the transition matrices using Linear Algebra knowledge as a tool. Application of Markov chains in a context focused on High School, it is shown in the last chapter, where we try to offer the students the opportunity to have a view of how mathematics can be applied in other areas of knowledge.

Submitted by Elimar Veloso Conceição null (eli_fisica@hotmail.com) on 2018-09-12T14:33:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Elimar_Valuation_rev_27_08_2018_REVISADA_bancafinal.pdf: 2725779 bytes, checksum: 6720ea56f43ebf29faa7b75f0342a1a4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Neli Silvia Pereira null (nelisps@fcav.unesp.br) on 2018-09-13T11:18:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 conceicao_ev_me_jabo.pdf: 2725779 bytes, checksum: 6720ea56f43ebf29faa7b75f0342a1a4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-13T11:18:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 conceicao_ev_me_jabo.pdf: 2725779 bytes, checksum: 6720ea56f43ebf29faa7b75f0342a1a4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / Objetivo: Valorar um projeto de inovação oriundo da estratégia de diversificação de produtos, considerando as incertezas e a flexibilidade como fontes de valor ao projeto. Metodologia / Procedimentos de Pesquisa: É apresentado um estudo de caso, valorado por meio de opções reais, com a possibilidade de inclusão de novas informações, modeladas pelo Teorema de Bayes, as quais possibilitam ajustar às probabilidades iniciais do projeto. Resultados e Discussões: Espera-se que os resultados apontem para o efeito da nova informação e implicações na criação de valor para a empresa. Implicações Gerenciais: Demonstrar à comunidade, aos profissionais de mercado e acadêmicos a necessidade de uma abordagem mais profunda e sistêmica para o uso de estratégias de investimento, considerando fatores endógenos e exógenos à firma. Conclusões e Limitações da Pesquisa: Ao analisar um projeto de inovação com elevado nível de incerteza, variáveis probabilísticas podem não ser suficientes para mensurar o desempenho futuro do investimento. Assim, o conhecimento tácito, criado a partir de todo o conhecimento acumulado pelos tomadores de decisão, fornecem informações que podem e devem ser utilizadas para a avaliação do investimento. O presente estudo não considerou o valor da sinergia criada pela implementação deste novo projeto na estrutura organizacional, nem foram utilizados profissionais externos para a projeção dos fluxos de caixa. Originalidade: A originalidade reside em avaliar um projeto de inovação com a utilização de opções reais em conjunto com uma abordagem bayesiana em uma indústria de autopeças agrícolas, permitindo com isto, o incremento de novas informações, sem a utilização de métodos estocásticos para a determinação da volatilidade. / Objective: Value an innovation project from the product diversification strategy, considering the uncertainties and flexibility as sources of value to the project. Methodology / Research Procedures: We present a case study, evaluated through real options, with the possibility of including new information, modeled by Bayes' Theorem, in which they can adjust the probabilities of the initials of the project. Results and discussions: The results are expected to point to the effect of new information and implications on value creation for the company. Management Implications: Demonstrate to the community, market professionals and academics the need for a more profound and systemic approach to the use of investment strategies, considering factors that are endogenous and exogenous to the firm. Conclusions and Limitations of the Research: When analyzing an innovation project with a high level of uncertainty, probabilistic variables may not be sufficient to measure the future performance of the investment, thus, tacit knowledge, created from all the knowledge accumulated by decision makers, provides information that can and should be used for the evaluation of the investment. The present study did not consider the value of the synergy created by the implementation of this new project in the organizational structure, nor were external professionals used for the projection of cash flows. Originality: The originality lies in evaluating an innovation project with the use of real options together a bayesian approach in an agricultural autoparts industry, allowing with this, the increment of new information, without the use of stochastic methods to determine the volatility.