Submitted by Iuri Pitta (iuripitta@gmail.com) on 2018-07-07T16:48:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Iuri Pitta - PDF Final 2.pdf: 1480195 bytes, checksum: e120301e40e33e8fa3ae8d04f2f8c55d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2018-07-10T13:37:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Iuri Pitta - PDF Final 2.pdf: 1480195 bytes, checksum: e120301e40e33e8fa3ae8d04f2f8c55d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-07-10T14:39:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Iuri Pitta - PDF Final 2.pdf: 1480195 bytes, checksum: e120301e40e33e8fa3ae8d04f2f8c55d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-10T14:39:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Iuri Pitta - PDF Final 2.pdf: 1480195 bytes, checksum: e120301e40e33e8fa3ae8d04f2f8c55d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-22 / O Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) tornou-se uma das políticas públicas mais estudadas e debatidas no Brasil tanto por seus resultados como carro-chefe da rede de proteção social quanto pelos efeitos políticos a ele atribuídos. Criado por Medida Provisória em outubro de 2003, o Programa tem um desenho institucional singular que envolve uma dinâmica de relações intergovernamentais mais complexa do que a dicotomia centralização versus descentralização, fruto da própria trajetória dos programas de transferência de renda condicionada no país. Ainda que as principais decisões e regulações se concentrem no nível federal, o Bolsa Família prevê aos governos locais papel determinante na gestão dessa política pública. Ademais, a instituição do Índice de Gestão Descentralizada fez surgir um importante instrumento de indução para o bom funcionamento do Programa, reduzindo eventuais práticas clientelísticas ou discricionárias na execução dessa política pública. Nesse contexto federativo e institucional, nosso intuito com esta pesquisa é mostrar como a qualidade da gestão local do Bolsa Família afeta os efeitos do Programa nas eleições municipais, e dessa forma suprir uma lacuna existente na literatura, cuja produção deu maior atenção às disputas presidenciais. Com base em dados relativos aos mandatos entre 2009 e 2012 e à votação ocorrida neste ano e tendo como lentes teóricas o neoinstitucionalismo e a escolha racional na arena político-eleitoral, desenhamos uma pesquisa de métodos mistos, estratégia metodológica que vem ganhando espaço nos campos da ciência política e da administração pública, para investigar as associações entre o desempenho da gestão local do PBF e o sucesso eleitoral dos incumbentes municipais. Diferentemente do observado nas disputas presidenciais, em que candidatos incumbentes tendem a uma melhor performance eleitoral conforme aumenta o número de beneficiados pelo programa de transferência de renda, no nível local esse incremento apresentou efeito negativo. Em contrapartida, a melhoria na qualidade da gestão foi um fator de elevação das chances de sucesso eleitoral dos prefeitos que buscaram um segundo mandato nas eleições municipais de 2012, indicativo de que o Programa Bolsa Família tem sido bem-sucedido também em seu desenho institucional. / Bolsa Família Program has become one of the most studied and debated public policies in Brazil both for its results as the flagship of the social protection network and for the political effects attributed to it. Created by Provisional Measure in October 2003, the Program has a unique institutional design that involves a dynamic of intergovernmental relations more complex than the dichotomy centralization versus decentralization, a consequence of the trajectory of the conditioned income transfer programs in the country. Although the main decisions and regulations are focused at the federal level, Bolsa Familia provides local governments with a decisive role in the management of this public policy. In addition, the institution of the Decentralized Management Index (Índice de Gestão Descentralizada) has created an important induction tool for the proper functioning of the Program, reducing possible clientelist or discretionary practices in the execution of this public policy. In this federative and institutional context, our intention with this research is to show how the quality of the local management of Bolsa Família affects the effects of the Program in municipal elections, and fill a gap in the literature, whose production has given greater attention to presidential elections. Based on data related to the period between 2009 and 2012 and by the theoretical lenses of new institutionalism and rational choice in the politicalelectoral arena, we designed a mixed methods research to investigate the associations between the performance of local management of the Program and the electoral success of municipal incumbents. This is a methodological strategy that has been gaining ground in the fields of political science and public administration. Unlike the presidential elections, in which incumbent candidates tend to perform better as the number of beneficiaries of the income transfer program increases, at the local level such increase had a negative effect. On the other hand, the improvement in the quality of the management was a factor of improvement of the chances of electoral success of mayors who sought a second term in the municipal elections of 2012, an indicative that Bolsa Família Program has also been successful in its institutional design.

Les politiques actives du marché du travail (PAMT) sont considérées de plus en plus comme nécessaires pour renforcer le lien entre protection sociale et création de sources de revenu plus durables dans l’objectif d’améliorer la qualité de l’emploi mais aussi, de façon plus générale, les conditions de vie. En conséquence, ces mesures jouent un rôle essentiel aujourd’hui dans les programmes de politique publique de la plupart des économies avancées et voient leur importance augmenter fortement dans les pays émergents et dans les pays en développement, où elles ne sont pas encore aussi bien établies. Il reste toutefois encore beaucoup à apprendre sur l’impact de ces mesures, en particulier sur le rôle des caractéristiques de leur mise en œuvre. Cette thèse entend contribuer à ce débat en étudiant l’efficacité des PAMT et le rôle des systèmes de mise en œuvre pour ce qui est de leur impact à la fois dans les pays développés et dans les pays émergents et en développement.Le premier chapitre examine sous un angle macroéconomique l’efficacité des PAMT à améliorer les résultats sur le marché du travail au sein des pays de l’OCDE, en particulier pour les travailleurs peu qualifiés. Il est capital de saisir de façon empirique l’effet net global des PAMT sur l’ensemble du marché du travail, car ces politiques entraînent souvent des phénomènes de substitution, de déplacement et d’autres conséquences indirectes. Les deux chapitres suivants cherchent à déterminer si les PAMT doivent être encore étendues dans les pays émergents et en développement. Pour ce faire, les effets au niveau individuel de deux types de PAMT en Amérique latine sont étudiés, en s’appuyant sur la présence de règles d’attribution intéressantes et de données de qualité au niveau individuel. Ainsi, le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse plus particulièrement aux conséquences à moyen et long terme d’un programme de workfare péruvien, l’une des mesures d’activation les moins étudiées, bien que fréquemment mise en œuvre dans la région, afin d’évaluer la durabilité de ses effets. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à l’introduction d’un ensemble complet de PAMT en Argentine, dans le but d’aider les bénéficiaires éligibles d’un programme de transfert de fonds sous conditions à trouver des sources de revenus plus stables. Dans les deux cas, l’accent est mis sur les effets sur la qualité de l’emploi et sur la manière dont la mise en œuvre des mesures conditionne leur impact.Ces travaux montrent que les PAMT sont utiles mais à condition qu’elles s’accompagnent d’une conception et d’une mise en œuvre appropriées. Les résultats confirment l’importance de ces facteurs pour ce qui est de l’efficacité des mesures tant dans les pays de l’OCDE que dans ceux d’Amérique latine étudiés. L’ampleur des effets dépend du type de mesure étudiée et de la catégorie de bénéficiaires visée. / Today, active labor market policies (ALMPs) are increasingly seen as a necessary tool to strengthen the link between social protection and the creation of more sustainable sources of income with a view to increasing work quality but also improving living conditions more broadly. As a result, the role of ALMPs in policy agendas remains high in most advanced economies and has increased dramatically in emerging and developing countries, where ALMPs are still less established. Despite this, there is still a lot to be learned regarding the impact of these policies, particularly with regards to the role of implementation characteristics. My dissertation aims to contribute to this debate by looking at the effectiveness of ALMPs and the role of delivery systems in shaping their impact in both, developed and emerging and developing countries.It starts by examining the effectiveness of ALMPs in OECD countries in improving labor market outcomes, especially for low-skilled individuals, from a macroeconomic perspective (Chapter 1). Capturing empirically the overall net effect of ALMPs on the wide labor market is of upmost importance, since the role of ALMPs frequently involves substitution, displacement and other indirect effects. Then, the following two chapters aim to assess whether ALMPs should be leveraged further in emerging and developing countries, by investigating the individual-level effects of two different types of ALMPs in Latin America, exploiting the availability of interesting assignment rules and good-quality individual-level data. Chapter 2 focuses on the medium- to long-term effects of a Peruvian workfare program, one of the least studied ALMPs in the region albeit commonly implemented, to assess the sustainability of these type of programs’ effects. Chapter 3 then looks at the provision of a comprehensive package of ALMPs in Argentina, implemented to support eligible beneficiaries of a conditional cash transfer program in finding more stable income opportunities. In both cases, the focus is placed on the effects on work quality and on the role of design and implementation in shaping the effects.My research suggests that ALMPs are relevant but mostly through appropriate design and implementation aspects. The results confirm the importance of these factors in ensuring effectiveness both in OECD and the Latin American countries assessed. The size of effects depends on the type of policy assessed and on the beneficiary group.