Cette thèse a pour objet de revisiter, à la lumière de données financières historiques inédites, certains résultats de la littérature en histoire économique concernant la propagation de la Grande Dépression vers l’Europe, et plus particulièrement vers la France. Nous cherchons notamment à étudier les différents canaux de transmission à l’échelle internationale -boursiers, bancaires et monétaires- de cette crise et évaluons le rôle respectif qu’ils ont pu exercer dans la propagation de cette crise aux marchés financiers français. Les différentes contributions, que nous proposons dans cette thèse, sont avant tout empiriques et s’appuient sur un travail important effectué en amont de collecte et de traitement de données financières originales, provenant principalement des archives de la Bourse de Paris.Plusieurs résultats importants émergent de notre travail. Notre analyse sur les marchés boursiers montre, tout d’abord, que le krach boursier américain de 1929 a eu un faible impact sur la bourse de Paris, De même, le système bancaire français a, dans son ensemble, plutôt bien résisté à la crise bancaire du début des années 1930, en raison notamment de la forte spécialisation qui le caractérisait à cette époque. Enfin, nous montrons que le niveau d’intégration financière entre les États-Unis, la France et la Belgique, à travers l’étude des relations bilatérales entre les marchés actions de ces trois pays, a eu tendance à se renforcer avec l’adoption par ces pays du système de l’étalon "de change" or. Cette forte intégration financière, couplée aux contraintes en matière de politique économique liées à ce système monétaire, pourraient ainsi expliquer comment la Grande Dépression s’est propagée en Europe et pourquoi la crise économique s’est prolongée dans des pays comme la France ou la Belgique, comparativement à d’autres grandes économies. / The aim of this thesis is to shed new light on how the Great Depression spread to Europe, and more particularly to France by relying on new historical financial data compiled from original source documents. In particular, we analyze the different transmission channels - stock markets, banking sector and international monetary system - of this crisis, in order to assess the respective role they have played in the impact of this crisis on French financial markets. We contribute empirically to this larger literature by providing evidence based on original historical data hand-collected from the archives of the Paris Stock Exchange.Several important results emerge from our work. Our analysis based on the stock markets shows, first, that the American stock market crash of 1929 had a low impact on the Paris stock exchange. Similarly, the French banking system, as a whole, remained quite resilient to the banking crisis of the beginning of the 1930s, mainly due to its strong specialization of the sector at that time. Finally, we show that the level of financial integration between the United States, France and Belgium - proxied by bilateral relationships between their equity markets - has tended to increase with the adoption by these countries of the Gold Exchange Standard. This high financial integration, coupled with economic policies constrained by the exchange rate regime, could explain how the Great Depression spread to Europe and why the economic crisis lasted longer in countries such as France or Belgium, compared to other major economies

Cette thèse porte sur la modélisation, la prévision et la couverture du risque de contagion financière. Après une présentation générale des fondements théoriques et des mécanismes de propagation relatifs à la contagion financière, nous introduisons une modélisation fondée sur les modèles de cointégration non linéaire et de causalité non linéaire dans lesquels, les variables et le terme d’erreur du modèle à correction d’erreur obéissent à la dynamique de processus auto-régressifs à changement de régime de type TAR et M-TAR pour capter l’effet de contagion. Une extension de cette modélisation au cadre de prévision probabiliste conditionnelle a été faite par la suite à travers les réseaux de croyance Bayésienne pour renforcer le pouvoir prédictif. Ensuite, nous montrons comment une institution financière peut couvrir son portefeuille contre ce type de risque par de nouvelles approches. Nous proposons pour cela, une stratégie de couverture purement statique dans une perspective règlementaire à l’aide de modèles génératifs de type Vines-copula, une stratégie de couverture semi-statique fondée sur la budgétisation des risques et une stratégie de couverture dynamique à partir des processus de diffusion à sauts mutualisés. Ces nouvelles modélisations sont testées empiriquement sur un ensemble d’indices boursiers. / This Ph.D thesis focuses on modeling, forecasting and hedging financial contagion. After an overview of the theoretical foundations and spread mechanism relating to financial contagion, we introduce modeling based on nonlinear cointegration and non-linear causality models in which the variables and the error term in the correction model error obey at the dynamics of autoregressive regime change process of type TAR and M-TAR to catch the contagion effect. An extension of this model to conditional probabilistic forecasting framework was done through Bayesian belief networks, to enhance the predictive power. Then we show how a financial institution can hedge its portfolio against this risk by new specifications. Therefore, we offer a purely static hedging strategy in a regulatory perspective using generative models Vines-copula, a semi-static hedging strategy based on risk budgeting and dynamic hedging strategy based on mutually exciting jumps diffusion process. These new models are tested empirically on set of market indices.

L'objectif de cette thèse est double : évaluer, mesurer et analyser les effets de contagion sur les banques américaines et européennes lors la crise financière globale de 2008-2009 et étudier les canaux financiers qui ont contribué à la propagation de la crise aux pays du G7. En suivant une approche microéconomique de la définition de la contagion, nous testons, premièrement, l'hypothèse d'un effet de « contagion » sur les marchés boursiers à l'aide de la méthode des études d'évènements. Nous qualifions ensuite la contagion de « contagion pure » ou de « contagion rationnelle ». Deuxièmement, nous testons l'hypothèse de « contagion » contre « interdépendance » sur le marché des dérivés de crédit avec les modèles de corrélations conditionnelles asymétriques dynamiques. En troisième lieu, nous cherchons à répondre à une question macroéconomique : quel choc joua le rôle majeur dans la transmission de la crise financière globale, celui dû à la pénurie de liquidité ou celui provoqué par la dévaluation des actifs financiers? Pour cela, nous analysons, à l'aide d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif à paramètres qui varient dans le temps, l'effet de chaque choc, venu des États-Unis, sur les marchés monétaires et boursiers des pays du G7. Enfin, nous questionnons l'intérêt de la régulation Bâle 3 portant sur le capital des banques du point de vue des banques contaminées durant la crise financière globale. / The objective of this thesis is the twofold: to assess, measure and analyze contagion effects to American and European banks during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and to study the financial channels that contributed to the spread of the crisis to G7 countries. Following a microeconomic approach of the definition of contagion, firstly, we test the hypothesis of “contagion” on stock markets using the event study methodology. Then, we qualify it as “pure contagion” or “rational contagion”. Secondly, we test the hypothesis of “contagion” versus “interdependence” on credit derivative market using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlations models. Thirdly, we aim to answer a macroeconomic issue: which shock played the major role in spreading the crisis from U.S. to money and stock markets of G7 countries, the shock due to liquidity shortage or the shock due to the devaluation of financial assets? We use a Time-Varying Parameters Vector-Auto Regression methodology. Finally, we provide insights into the impact of Basel III regulation of banks capital, by focusing on banks contaminated during the global financial crisis.

This essay examines influencers’ framing of mental illness and how the framing could possibly affect the growing problem of mental illness among Swedish youth. Previous research concerning mental illness among youth, social media and social contagion is presented as a basic understanding of the problem at hand. Approximately 16 000 Instagram posts from Sweden’s most influential Instagram accounts were reviewed for content about mental illness. Posts containing descriptions of mental illness were extracted and analyzed using thematical analysis. The main finding from the thematical analysis was that influencers tended to use The Hero’s Journey dramaturgy in the framing of mental illness. The main conclusion made from the study was that influencer framing of mental health issues, consciously or unconsciously, tended to augment mental illness in a number of ways. The influencers seemed to have developed specializations in different forms of mental illness. The specialized influencer took upon him/herself the role of a mentor to followers experiencing symptoms of the same type of mental illness, leading them on for their own Hero’s Journey. Hence, the mechanisms of The Hero’s Journey were shown to, in themselves, have a tendency to increase the contagious effects of mental illness.

À travers une séries d'études de cas éclairées par l'apport de l'éthologie, l'histoire de l'art, la psychologie cognitive et les neurosciences, cette thèse tente de répondre au paradoxe apparent du cinéma d'animation qui rend les personnages stylisés et caricaturaux sont plus à même de faire oublier leurs artificialité que les personnages visant au plus grand réalisme. / Through a series of case studies, supported by reasearch in art history, ethology, cognitive psychology and neuroscience, this dissertation aims at explaining the strange animated film paradox that makes stylised and caricatural characters more efficient than characters tending towards strong realism at overcoming their artificialit / Doctorat en Information et communication / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Unresolved global problems, such as extreme poverty, ask for a better understanding of what predicts altruism and what does not. The aim of this thesis project was to address this topical and timely research question by studying the predictive role of compassion and empathy in understanding altruism. In past research on the relationship between altruism and empathy, distinct empathic processes (Perspective taking, Empathic concern, Personal distress, Emotional contagion, and Behavioral contagion) have been often lumped together and the context dependency of the relationship has been insufficiently taken into account, resulting in confusion and contradictory findings. Compassion overcomes these issues. The present web-based survey with previous or current university students (age 18-45; N=240) aimed to clarify relationships between components of empathy, compassion, and altruism. It was hypothesized that (1) compassion would predict altruism beyond all components of empathy; (2) Empathic concern would mediate the relationship between Perspective taking and altruism; (3) compassion would mediate the relationship between Empathic concern and altruism, and (4) higher levels of compassion would result in a reduced negative relationship between Personal distress and altruism. The results supported all hypotheses except for the final one. These findings are discussed in context of previous research and theory, considering the current study limitations and with focus on theoretical and practical implications. In sum, the findings suggest that efforts to motivate altruism should focus on invoking positive emotions of warmth, concern, and relatability. Care should be taken to avoid unnecessary Personal distress when invoking altruism, as this reduces its likelihood.

In this paper I analyzed the intra-industry competitive and contagion effect during bond defaults in China. The analysis is performed using bond price, since the Chinese stock market is immature and has incredible amount of volatility. The sample includes 15 cases of default across 10 different industries since 2014, and the cumulative effect of the industry portfolio is positive over 11-day event window (competitive effect) with a t-statistic of 6.22. In addition, I found that SOE defaults overall have a significant positive abnormal return on their industry portfolios during 11-day event window with a t-statistic of 4.72, indicating a competitive effect. In contrast, Non-SOE defaults overall have a significant negative abnormal return on their industry portfolios over 3-day window with a t-statistic of -3.36, showing a contagion effect. But this difference could be due to the characteristics of industries as opposed to the nature of SOE. By analyzing the condition and characteristics of each industry, I found that the significance of abnormal return depends on the level of competition of the industry and the level of information available. In terms of contagion and competitive effect, industries showing a contagion effect offer products that are difficult to differentiate, such as cement and water bottle. Industries showing a competitive effect offer products that are highly specialized and rely heavily on technology innovation, such as the special equipment industry and electric equipment industry.

Firm closeness or comparability is an important concept to investors. Knowing that two firms have been historically close and observing an information announcement by one of the firms gives the investor cues as to the future performance of the other firm. Furthermore, from a methodological point of view, researchers commonly control for firm--group closeness by using industrial classification schemes such as the SIC. To the extent that these schemes group dissimilar firms, the advantage of using these schemes is undermined. This paper more formally examines the comparability concept and develops two new measures of firm--group accounting closeness. Both measures are based on the co--movement of accounting fundamentals. I provide insight regarding the extent to which the SIC and GIC schemes group similar firms. Furthermore, a trading strategy utilizing information in the measures is developed and tested. Results indicate that, when industry closeness is high enough, abnormal returns in the range of 1-3% over a 1-3 day window can be earned around leader information announcement dates. Finally, I contribute to the contagion/information transfer literature, most notably Gleason et al. (2008), by showing that the contagion effects of accounting information announcements are increasing in the closeness of the industry.

Service quality has been shown to be critical for the success of service organisations. However, the quality of service delivered by an organisation is dependent on the behaviours of organisational members. Therefore, understanding the various processes that foster desirable service behaviour is important. While there have been many studies which deal with antecedents of service delivery, research adopting a cultural perspective and focusing on elements such as shared values and norms have been somewhat sparse. This is quite surprising given the amount of reference to the importance of a service culture. Recently, there have been calls for research into the cultural determinants of service quality and in particular service culture. This study answers the call by testing a multi-layer model of service culture and performance. The key objectives of the study relate to understanding how service culture leads to both customer-based and financial performance, as well as investigating the process of culture transmission from managers to employees. On the basis of data collected from management and employees, the study assesses service culture at the management and the employee levels, focusing simultaneously on assumptions, value, norms and behaviours. Two routes for culture transmission: the social contagion and behavioural routes are hypothesised and tested. The key findings are that shared service norms are the key impact point of culture transmission from management to employees as well as the key determinant of employee service delivery behaviour. The findings also show that proximity among managers and employees is crucial in the diffusion of service culture and hence in the leadership influencing process. Based on the findings, managerial implications for managing service employees are discussed as well as limitations and suggestions for future research.

A Magical Contagion and AIDS Scale was developed to address problems with existing Contagion and AIDS measures. Magical Contagion is an influence that exists after contact is terminated. It is comprised of Permanence, Holographic Effects, Moral Germ Conflation and Backward Action. Data from 280 undergraduates revealed low mean levels of Magical Contagion and AIDS. Contagion effects did not differ on demographic variables. Content validity, criterion-related validity, discriminate validity, and internal consistency were evaluated. Significant correlations were found between the Contagion Scale and Merging/Separation and Homophobia Scales. Negative correlations were found between the Contagion scale and the AIDS knowledge and social desirability scales. Alpha reliabilities were high (a > .93) for the Contagion scale and subscales. Factor analysis suggested the existence of a single factor and mixed support for three factors.