Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-09-16T15:21:14Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação_Poliana.pdf: 864570 bytes, checksum: 74d0fe98907e91cfd6d989e6f6735ace (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-16T15:21:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação_Poliana.pdf: 864570 bytes, checksum: 74d0fe98907e91cfd6d989e6f6735ace (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-31 / CAPES / PROPESQ- UFPE / Os acidentes de trânsito tem se apresentado como um sério problema de saúde no mundo, ocasionando prejuízos físicos, emocionais e econômicos. Esses tipos de acidentes são diretamente influenciados por ações individuais dos motoristas e de outros usuários. Leis ou medidas que afetem os incentivos individuais na forma de se comportarem no trânsito podem levar a mudanças nas taxas de mortalidade, entre elas as que restringem a associação, consumo de bebidas alcoólicas e direção, como a Lei Seca implantada no Brasil no ano de 2008. Desta forma, o objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar o impacto da Lei Seca sobre a mortalidade por acidente de trânsito automotivo na Região Metropolitana de Recife, Pernambuco. Para tanto, a partir do método do Controle Sintético de dados de mortalidade obtidos no DATASUS estimou-se um efeito positivo da referida lei na RMR, resultando em uma redução da taxa de mortalidade por acidentes de trânsito automotivo em média de um ponto, equivalente a 45%, entre os anos de 2008 a 2013. Ou seja, a Lei Seca apresentou como uma medida eficiente na prevenção de mortes no trânsito decorrentes de acidentes automobilísticos na região em estudo. / Traffic accidents must be presented as a serious health problem in the world, causing damages to physical, emotional and economic. These types of accidents are directly influenced by individual actions of drivers and of other users. Laws or measures that affect individual incentives in the form of behave in transit may lead to changes in mortality rates, among them the that restrict the association, consumption of alcoholic beverages and direction, as the Dry Law implanted in Brazil in the year 2008. In this way, the objective of this dissertation is to assess the impact of the Dry Law on mortality by automotive traffic accident in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Pernambuco. For both, from the method of synthetic control of mortality data obtained in DATASUS we estimated a positive effect of this law in the metropolitan Recife, resulting in a reduction in the rate of mortality from traffic accidents automotive on average a point, equivalent to 45%, between the years of 2008 to 2013. Thus the Dry Law presented as an efficient in the prevention of traffic related deaths resulting from car accidents in the region under study.

The aim of this study is to examine whether the 2018 U.S. steel tariffs have negatively impacted Swedish steel exports to the U.S, given that the U.S. is Swedish steel industry’s second most important foreign market and the majority of Swedish steel exports to the U.S. are subject to the tariffs. The theoretical foundation for this study is the standard trade model, which predicts a decline in quantity traded due to tariffs. With monthly export value data for January 2015 to January 2020, the synthetic control method (SCM) is used to create a counterfactual to the steel products subject to tariffs. The study encountered several data limitations which complicated the use of the SCM, but the overall results suggest that in the absence of tariffs, Swedish monthly export value for steel to the U.S. would have higher than it has been with the tariffs.

This paper empirically estimates the effect of tax exemptions from the carbon tax and energy taxon emissions in Sweden. After the tax exemptions in 1992, carbon dioxide emissions from theSwedish industrial sector increased by, on average, over 34 percent, compared to a synthetic control unit constructed from a comparable group of OECD countries. The main finding is robust to various placebo tests, robustness tests and a dose-response test, suggesting that the tax exemptions are the driver of the result.

This paper aims to investigate how the domestic unemployment rate of a nation is affected by joining the European currency union and converting to the euro. This is done through the use of a synthetic control method, as well as an augmented version of the model, where I define the Euro Area countries as the treatment group, and conversion to euro as treatment. In line with the predictions of previous related theoretical frameworks such as the optimum currency area theory, the gravity theory and Matusz’s equilibrium model, the findings in this paper suggests that conversion to the euro leads to a short-term decrease in domestic unemployment. The effect is likely due to the short-term increase in trade, specifically within-union trade, that arises from joining the EMU.

In 2007, the Swedish payroll tax was reduced for youths in an attempt to suppress the perceived high unemployment among Swedish youths. The reform was rolled back later in 2016. For this period there is a rich supply of publicly available aggregated (macro) data. This thesis aims to examine: first, if the aggregated data is suitable for policy evaluation of the reform, and second, the effects of the reform introduction and repeal. This has been done by using both a conventional fixed effects model and a more unorthodox synthetic control method. Neither of the two methods could show any unbiased and consistent significant result of the treatment effects of the reform. Instead, the results of this thesis suggest that the publicly available aggregated data doesn’t contain enough information to evaluate such reforms.

To establish the economic impact of petroleum in the UK, this paper uses the synthetic control method. By constructing an artificial UK economy without oil, from the donor pool of OECD economies, it establishes the counterfactual time path of capital stock the UK would have had if it lacked the petroleum endowment. Comparing the observed time path of capital stock with its counterfactual, one can witness that the petroleum extraction has reduced the UK’s capital stock with an average of 17 % since 1970, despite the UK having arguably the best quality of institutions. Dose-response tests suggest that it is possible to attribute the impact to the petroleum production. Performed robustness and sensitivity tests together with several falsification tests show that the result is robust to alternations in the donor pool, the predictor variables and alternative explanations. The finding raises a question regarding the quality of institutions, advanced by Mehlum, Moene and Torvik and claimed that the resource curse only occurs in economies with low quality of institutions.

Throughout the last few years, Flygskam, a norm against air travel, has grown steadily in Sweden due to its emissions. Flygskam is a Swedish word referring to the shame that follows air travel since it runs counter to the norm behavior. This thesis investigates the effect of Flygskam on demand for domestic flights in Sweden using synthetic control and panel data for 2003-2019. The results indicate that Flygskam seems to affect the domestic passengers in Sweden, estimated to be approximately 22% lower in 2019 than the counterfactual, significant on a 1% level.

With the continuously growing importance of technological development and automation, it is vital to separate the wheat from the chaff and distinguish the effective automation from the lesser. Previous economic research typically investigates automation on a sector or national level. I instead focus on the micro-level effects of a specific setting by investigating the effects of introducing Robotic Process Automation (RPA) in the financial aid operation in the Swedish municipality Ronneby, initiated in 2019. Using a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) with yearly municipal level data, I find a reduction in Ronneby’s application duration for financial aid. The application duration estimates are noisy but robust, unanimous, and economically significant. I also investigate Ronneby's financial aid effects, finding no significant results. The share of households receiving aid in Ronneby displays an initial increase, followed by an equally sized fall at the end of the observation window. I conjecture that this movement could stem from the digitalized applications and a delay caused by the pandemic.

Lastbilar körandes i nordiska vinterförhållanden riskerar att strålkastare, och andra lyktor blir täckta utav is. Detta hindrar ljuset från att skina på vägen, något som måste åtgärdas manuellt utav föraren. Tidigare har problemet varit löst genom den extra värme som strålas från glödlamporna i lyktorna men i och med övergången till LED har detta problem vuxit. Strålkastarna är nu i behov av en lösning som kan ta bort, samt förhindra att ny, snö och is från linserna. Detta examensarbete, som utfördes på Scania CV, Södertälje, undersöker kontrollmetoder för en termisk avisnings lösning. Projektets huvuduppgift har varit att utveckla och använda en simuleringsmodell för avisnings processen. Modellen används sedan för att jämföra två stycken kontrollmetoder för avisningen och för att förhindra att ny is bildas. För att hitta en lämplig termisk avisningslösning undersöktes de tre alternativen för värmetransport i material. En potentiell lösning för varje alternativ jämfördes sedan med varandra. Den bästa lösning var den som använder värmeledning i form utav värmeslingor i linsen. Denna lösning låter värmaren vara nära isen och använder sig av den effektivaste transportalternativet. Värmaren inkluderas i simuleringsmodellen om beskriver värmetransporten i en lins täckt med is. Två kontrollmetoder valdes sedan baserat på en litteraturstudie inom området. Studien resulterade i två hybrid controllers, en som använder sig utav gain-scheduling och en andra som använder sig utav en smith-prediktor. Både metoder implementerades i simuleringsmodellen och deras prestanda jämfördes. Hybrid controllern med smith-prediktorn fanns vara den metod som presterade bäst, då den var både snabbare samt hade mindre översläng. Metoden visade sig dock vara känsligare mot störningar på återkopplingen. Kontrollmetoden med smith prediktorn är den som rekommenderas för användning i vidare arbete med den avisnings lösning. Ett första steg innan implementering med hårdvara föreslås vara jobb på ett filter för återkopplingen. / t has been discovered that trucks driving in Nordic winter conditions run the risk of the headlights, and other lights, getting covered in ice and snow. This prevents the lights from illuminating he roads. It has previously been solved by excess heat from the light bulbs, with the recent change to LED lights this problem has escalated. The headlights are now in need of a de-icing system capable of removing ice and snow, as well as preventing it from building up on the lenses. This thesis project carried out at Scania CV, Södertälje, deals with the controlling method for a thermal de-icing solution. The main task of the project was the development and use of simulation model for a chosen heater solution. On this model two developed control methods were compared. In order to find a suitable thermal solution, the three different modes of heat transport were investigated and a solution for each mode was compared against each other. The best solution found was resistance wires molded into the lens, this due to being near the ice and having the most efficient mode of transfer. This solution was incorporated into a simulation model, that described the heat transfer process of a lens covered in ice. Two control methods were chosen based of a literature research, a hybrid controller using gain scheduling and a second hybrid controller using a smith predictor. These were implemented into the simulation model and their performance compared. The smith predictor had the better performance out of the two, being generally faster and has less overshoot. The method does have problems with feedback disturbances, requiring filters in real life implementations. The control method using smith prediction is the one recommended for future work on this project. Before implementation on hardware work needs to be done regarding filtering.

Declining fertility rates are an increasingly important topic in today’s Europe. Fertility rates play a significant role in sustaining a stable population and ensuring economic growth and innovation. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of CSOK, a Hungarian housing policy specifically aimed at increasing fertility rates. The research relies on theories such as Becker’s new home economics theory, Quantity-quality trade-off theory, and Willis’s economic theory of family. The study of housing prices and fertility is also provided to understand the relationship between housing and fertility better. The benchmark country for this thesis is Hungary. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), we construct a synthetic Hungary to match pretreatment outcomes closely. The findings of this thesis show that the policy has no positive effect on fertility rates and is inefficient in spending government resources. The study highlights the significance of governmental trust, emphasizing the importance of stable economic conditions and a family-friendly environment to effectively increase fertility rates.