O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o nível de recursos escolares e a sua distribuição entre os estudantes afetam o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos brasileiros da rede pública de ensino. Para atingir tal objetivo, utilizou-se duas óticas de análise: uma análise descritiva e uma análise econométrica, ambas com base em dados do Censo Escolar e da Prova Brasil de 2013. Sob a ótica descritiva, parte-se da constatação de que as escolas públicas de Ensino Fundamental apresentam desigualdades nos patamares de recursos escolares conforme a região em que a escola se localiza. Em especial, as crianças de regiões mais empobrecidas tendem a enfrentar restrições de oferta de escolas públicas com maiores dotações de equipamentos pedagógicos, de instalações e de qualificação docente. A fim de avaliar apropriadamente a relação entre os recursos escolares e os resultados acadêmicos dos alunos no contexto brasileiro, tal distribuição não aleatória de recursos escolares entre os alunos foi considerada na análise econométrica. Nesta ótica de análise, por sua vez, foi estimado um modelo de correção em dois estágios que identificou os efeitos dos recursos escolares nas notas de Português e de Matemática dos alunos de 5º ano/4ª série do Ensino Fundamental das escolas públicas brasileiras, considerando a restrição de oferta de escolas com maior nível de recursos por meio do emprego de variável instrumental. Os resultados encontrados apontaram para a existência do efeito positivo que escolas mais bem equipadas em termos de recursos escolares têm sobre o desempenho escolar dos alunos, sendo esse efeito maior para as notas de Matemática e para a subpopulação de alunos oriundos de municípios com maior restrição de oferta de escola de alto nível de recursos. / The aim of this study is to analyze how the level of school resources and its distribution among the students affect the academic performance of Brazilian students from public schools. To achieve this goal, we used two analytical forms: a descriptive and an econometric analysis, both based in the Brazilian School Census and Prova Brasil data of 2013. Under the descriptive point of view, it is observed that public schools of Ensino Fundamental have inequalities in school resource levels depending on the region where the school is located. In particular, children from the poorest regions tend to face supply constraints of public schools with larger endowments of teaching equipment, facilities and teaching qualification. In order to properly evaluate the relationship between school resources and academic achievement of students in the Brazilian context, such non-random distribution of school resources among students was considered in the econometric analysis. In this analytical form, in its turn, a two-step correction model was estimated which identified the effects of school resources in the results of test scores in Portuguese and Math of 5th year/4th grade students of Ensino Fundamental education in Brazilian public schools, accounting for the supply restriction of schools with high level of resources using an instrumental variable. The findings pointed to the existence of the positive effect that the best equipped schools in terms of school resources have on school performance of students. This effect is particularly greater in Math scores and for the subpopulation of students from municipalities with the highest supply restriction of high quality schools.

A presente tese tenta avaliar a política monetária sob o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI), num contexto de flexibilidade cambial e integração financeira. No campo teórico, este trabalho avalia no primeiro ensaio, os aspectos teóricos do RMI e também do Novo Consenso Macroeconômico (NCM), assim como a crítica pós-keynesiana ao NCM. Na sequência, avalia-se a evolução do debate acerca da política monetária após a Crise Financeira Internacional, assim como os aspectos teóricos da integração financeira global e dos Ciclos Financeiros Globais, e suas consequências para a condução da política monetária. No aspecto histórico, avalia-se brevemente no segundo ensaio, o comportamento das principais variáveis macroeconômicas concernentes a política monetária, taxa de câmbio e crescimento econômico, assim como, os arranjos institucionais do RMI de cada país, evidenciando suas principais diferenças. O Brasil tem um dos RMI mais rígidos e as maiores taxas de juros entre os países analisados. No âmbito empírico, realizou-se três exercícios econométricos distintos. O primeiro, por meio do modelo VEC, comparam-se a eficiência do RMI brasileiro com outros 12 países selecionados, no que diz respeito ao controle inflacionário, ao repasse cambial e do crescimento econômico. O Brasil, assim como outros países em desenvolvimento, tem um dos RMI mais ineficientes, com evidencias da presença de price-puzzle, além de apresentar um elevado repasse cambial para o nível de preços e ter impactos no crescimento econômico. O segundo exercício econométrico buscou-se analisar a não-linearidade da política monetária brasileira com relação ao repasse cambial para o nível de preços, utilizando o modelo MS-VAR. O modelo mostrou fortes evidências empíricas de que há repasse cambial tanto em momentos de apreciação, quanto de depreciação cambial, configurando assim, uma política monetária com dois regimes cambiais. O terceiro exercício busca evidenciar, por meio do modelo VEC, os impactos que a integração financeira global, tem na condução da política monetária brasileira. Encontrou-se indícios de que a taxa de câmbio opera entre os ciclos financeiros globais e o nível de preços da economia brasileira, mostrando, assim, que a política monetária sob o RMI, tendo como base altas taxas de juros, é ineficiente. Tais fatos sugerem que a taxa de câmbio tem um papel fundamental no controle da inflação e no desempenho do próprio RMI; todavia, há a necessidade de uma reavaliação da política cambial que vêm sendo adotada no Brasil para além do papel de mecanismo de controle de preços. / This study aims to evaluate the monetary evolution of the Inflation Target Regime (IT) in a context of exchange rate flexibility and financial integration. In the theoretical field, this work was evaluated in the first essay, the theoretical questions of the IT and also of the New Macroeconomic Consensus (NMC), as well as a post-Keynesian criticism to NMC. Following an assessment of the monetary policy debate following an International Financial Crisis, as well as the financial issues for the financial and global integration of Global Financials, and their consequences for the generation of monetary policy. The evaluation of the risk in the historical statistics, the evaluation of the risk changes the monetary changes, the risk must change the expansion policies, and the risk must have different conditions. Brazil has one of the most rigid ITs and the main interest rates among the analyzed countries. In the empirical context, the different econometric exercises are carried out. The first one, through the VEC model, compares the efficiency of the Brazilian IT with 12 other selected countries, than respect for inflationary control, exchange rate transfers and economic growth. Brazil, like other developing countries, has more inefficient IT, with evidence of the presence of price-puzzles, as well as a high exchange rate repayment for the price level and the impacts on economic growth. The second econometric exercise sought to analyze the non-linearity of the Brazilian monetary policy in relation to the pass-through to the price level, using the MS-VAR model. The model of empirical demonstrations that there is to change both in moments of appreciation and the exchange depreciation, thus forming a monetary policy with two exchange rate regimes. The third study seeks the evidence, through the VEC model, of the impacts that global financial integration has on Brazilian monetary policy. We find that the indexes of an exchange rate between the cycles and the level of prices of the Brazilian economy, thus showing a monetary policy on the IT, based on interest rates, is inefficient. Such facts should that an exchange rate has a key role in controlling the rate and performance of the IT itself; however, there is a reappraisal of the exchange rate policy that has been adopted in Brazil beyond the role of the price control mechanism.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o nível de recursos escolares e a sua distribuição entre os estudantes afetam o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos brasileiros da rede pública de ensino. Para atingir tal objetivo, utilizou-se duas óticas de análise: uma análise descritiva e uma análise econométrica, ambas com base em dados do Censo Escolar e da Prova Brasil de 2013. Sob a ótica descritiva, parte-se da constatação de que as escolas públicas de Ensino Fundamental apresentam desigualdades nos patamares de recursos escolares conforme a região em que a escola se localiza. Em especial, as crianças de regiões mais empobrecidas tendem a enfrentar restrições de oferta de escolas públicas com maiores dotações de equipamentos pedagógicos, de instalações e de qualificação docente. A fim de avaliar apropriadamente a relação entre os recursos escolares e os resultados acadêmicos dos alunos no contexto brasileiro, tal distribuição não aleatória de recursos escolares entre os alunos foi considerada na análise econométrica. Nesta ótica de análise, por sua vez, foi estimado um modelo de correção em dois estágios que identificou os efeitos dos recursos escolares nas notas de Português e de Matemática dos alunos de 5º ano/4ª série do Ensino Fundamental das escolas públicas brasileiras, considerando a restrição de oferta de escolas com maior nível de recursos por meio do emprego de variável instrumental. Os resultados encontrados apontaram para a existência do efeito positivo que escolas mais bem equipadas em termos de recursos escolares têm sobre o desempenho escolar dos alunos, sendo esse efeito maior para as notas de Matemática e para a subpopulação de alunos oriundos de municípios com maior restrição de oferta de escola de alto nível de recursos. / The aim of this study is to analyze how the level of school resources and its distribution among the students affect the academic performance of Brazilian students from public schools. To achieve this goal, we used two analytical forms: a descriptive and an econometric analysis, both based in the Brazilian School Census and Prova Brasil data of 2013. Under the descriptive point of view, it is observed that public schools of Ensino Fundamental have inequalities in school resource levels depending on the region where the school is located. In particular, children from the poorest regions tend to face supply constraints of public schools with larger endowments of teaching equipment, facilities and teaching qualification. In order to properly evaluate the relationship between school resources and academic achievement of students in the Brazilian context, such non-random distribution of school resources among students was considered in the econometric analysis. In this analytical form, in its turn, a two-step correction model was estimated which identified the effects of school resources in the results of test scores in Portuguese and Math of 5th year/4th grade students of Ensino Fundamental education in Brazilian public schools, accounting for the supply restriction of schools with high level of resources using an instrumental variable. The findings pointed to the existence of the positive effect that the best equipped schools in terms of school resources have on school performance of students. This effect is particularly greater in Math scores and for the subpopulation of students from municipalities with the highest supply restriction of high quality schools.

nÃo hà / This study aims to analyze the relationship between the derivative operations and agricultural food inflation in Brazil and abroad. To this end, monthly data are used about the number of trades carried out on agricultural derivative contracts in BMF & BOVESPA, the IPCA of food and international prices of agricultural commodities from January 1999 until January 2011. The analysis applies some tests, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979), the cointegration test of Johansen (1988), the Granger-causality test within an error-correction framework (GRANGER,1986) and the long-run causality test developed by Bruneau e Jondeau (1999). The results indicate both on short and long term a unidirectional causality from the international prices of agricultural commodities to the volume of derivatives contracts, and also the absence of a causal relationship between the latter and domestic food inflation. It follows that the dominant hypothesis is the price effect, thus changes in prices in the spot market Granger cause the elevation of the use of agricultural derivatives, although the reference to the agents are the international prices. Finally, the results still show, just for the long term, a unidirectional causality of the international food inflation on the Brazilianâs, demonstrating the significance of the foreign sector in the national food prices. / Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar a relaÃÃo entre as operaÃÃes de derivativos agropecuÃrios e a inflaÃÃo de alimentos no Brasil e no exterior. Para tanto, sÃo utilizados dados mensais referentes ao nÃmero de negÃcios efetuados com contratos de derivativos agrÃcolas na BMF&BOVESPA, ao IPCA relativo à alimentaÃÃo e aos preÃos internacionais de commodities agropecuÃrias de janeiro de 1999 atà janeiro de 2011. Faz-se uso do teste Dickey Fuller Aumentado (1979), do teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen (1988), da causalidade de Granger com uma estrutura de mecanismo de correÃÃo de erros (GRANGER,1986), alÃm do teste de causalidade de longo-prazo desenvolvido por Bruneau e Jondeau (1999). Os resultados obtidos indicam, tanto no curto como no longo prazo, uma causalidade unidirecional dos preÃos internacionais de commodities agropecuÃrias sobre o volume de derivativos, alÃm da ausÃncia de relaÃÃo causal entre este Ãltimo e a inflaÃÃo nacional de alimentos. Dessa forma, tem-se que a hipÃtese preponderante à a do efeito preÃo, ou seja, alteraÃÃes dos preÃos no mercado à vista causam no sentido de Granger o aumento do uso de derivativos, sendo que o Ãndice de referÃncia dos agentes sÃo os preÃos internacionais. Por fim, os resultados demonstram, ainda, apenas para o longo prazo, uma causalidade unidirecional da inflaÃÃo internacional de alimentos sobre a brasileira, comprovando a significÃncia do setor externo nas alteraÃÃes dos preÃos nacionais de alimentos

Este trabalho busca apurar a existência de assimetria na transmissão dos preços dos combustíveis no atacado para o varejo no Estado de São Paulo. Desde a introdução dos veículos flex-fuel no mercado brasileiro em 2003, o consumidor pode optar por abastecer com a gasolina comum ou com o etanol hidratado, sendo a sua escolha influenciada pelas variações na relação dos preços desses combustíveis, o que evidencia a importância de um estudo para entender o comportamento desses preços. Para tal, medias mensais dos preços da gasolina comum e do etanol hidratado nos níveis de distribuição e revenda, referentes ao estado paulista, para o período de novembro de 2002 a abril de 2015 foram consideradas na condução da analise empírica, que compreende a estimação de Modelos de Correção de Erros. Os resultados indicam a presença de assimetria na transmissão dos preços de ambos os combustíveis do atacado para o varejo, contudo esta se manifesta somente no curto prazo. Ademais, constata-se no mercado de combustíveis a assimetria positiva, de modo que no curto prazo aumentos nos preços no atacado elevam com maior intensidade os preços ao consumidor, em comparação a decréscimos nos preços ao consumidor provocados por choques negativos nos preços de distribuição. Tal assimetria pode proceder de uma combinação entre as reações dos consumidores as futuras oscilações nos preços e a gestão de estoques por parte dos postos de combustíveis. / This work aims to determine the existence of asymmetry in the transmission of fuel prices in the wholesale to retail in the State of Sao Paulo. Since the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles in the Brazilian market in 2003, the consumer can choose to fill up with regular gasoline or hydrated ethanol, and your choice is influenced by variations in the relative prices of these fuels, which highlights the importance of a study to understand the behavior of these prices. To this end, monthly average of prices of regular gasoline and hydrated ethanol in the levels of distribution and resale, for the State of Sao Paulo, for the period November 2002 to April 2015 were considered in conducting empirical analysis, which includes the estimation of Error Correction Models. The results indicate the presence of asymmetry in transmission of price of both fuels of wholesale for retail, however it is manifested in the short term only. Moreover, it appears in the fuel market the positive asymmetry, so that in the short term increases in wholesale prices rise more strongly consumer prices compared to decreases in consumer prices caused by negative shocks in distribution prices. Such asymmetry can come from a combination of consumer reactions to future fluctuations in prices and inventory management by the fuel stations.

Thesis (M.Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / Studies have indicated that sorghum hectares in South Africa have been decreasing over the past decades. This has resulted in a huge importation of the grain sorghum by the country. This study was undertaken due to sorghum production variability in South Africa. The objectives of this study were to estimate elasticity of sorghum production to changes in price and non-price factors, as well as estimating the short-run and long-run sorghum price elasticity. The study used time series data spanning from 1998 to 2016. This data was obtained from the abstracts of agricultural statistics and verified by South African Grain Information Services. Variance Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed to address both objectives. A number of diagnostic tests were performed to ensure that the study does not produce spurious regression results. This study estimated sorghum supply elasticity using two dependent variables being the area and yield response functions as model one and two respectively. The results have shown that area response function was found to be a robust model as most of the variables were significant, responsive and elastic. Maize price as a competing crop of sorghum negatively influenced the area allocation; however, the remaining variables positively influenced the area allocation in the long-run. In this model, all variables were statistically significant at 10% and 1% in the short and long-run respectively. In the yield function, most of the variables were insignificant, not responsive and inelastic, therefore, this model was found not to be robust and hence not adopted. Thus, it was concluded that sorghum output in South Africa is less sensitive to changes in price and nonprice factors. The findings further indicated that error correction term for area was -1.55 and -1.30 for yield response function. This indicated that the two models were able to revert to equilibrium. Therefore, it was concluded that the area response function was more robust, while the yield response function was not. Furthermore, it was concluded that sorghum production was more responsive to area allocation than yield function. Based on the findings, the study recommends that amongst other methods to enhance sorghum output, producers could use improved varieties or hybrids, as this action would result in allocation of more land to sorghum production, following price change.

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Yes / This paper uses panel cointegration with a corresponding vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the changes in the value relevance of accounting information before and after the mandatory adoption of IFRS in Germany and the UK under three different valuation models. First, a basic Ohlson model, where our results indicate that despite the value relevance of the book values of equity has declined, it has been replaced by the increasing prominence of earnings in both Germany and the UK after the switch to the IFRS. Second, a modified model, which shows that the incremental value relevance of both earnings and book values are considerably higher in the long term for firms in the UK than in Germany. Third, a simultaneous addition of accounting and macroeconomic variables in an extended model, which indicates a significant rise in the relative predictive power of the book value of equity in the UK compared with the more noticeable impact on the value relevance of earnings in Germany. Collectively, the results of these models indicate that: (i) the explanatory power of linear equity valuation models is higher in UK than in the Germany, (ii) a long-run Granger-causal relationship exists between accounting variables and share prices in common law countries like the UK. Nevertheless, the implications of our findings lie in the knowledge that the potential costs of switching to the IFRS is completely nullified within three years by the benefits arising from a reduction in information asymmetry and earning mismanagement among firms which are listed on the stock exchanges of both common law and code law-based EU countries.

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia using quarterly dataset from 1992Q1 to 2010Q4. In doing so, an interesting policy issue arises. What is the threshold level of inflation for the Ethiopian economy? Based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests it is found out that there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The error correction models show that in cases of short-run disequilibrium, the inflation model adjusts itself to its long-run path correcting roughly 40% of the imbalance in each quarter. In addition, based on the conditional least square technique, the estimated threshold model suggests 10% as the optimal level of inflation that facilitates growth. An inflation level higher or lower than the threshold level of inflation affects the economic growth negatively and hence fiscal and monetary policy coordination is vital to keep inflation at the threshold. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)