This study analyzed the causes of military coups and the consequences of military rule in the Third World during the 1960-1985 period. Using a coup d" etat score, including both successful and unsuccessful coups, as a dependent variable and collecting data for 109 developing nations from the World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators, The New York Times Index, and public documents, sixteen hypotheses derived from the literature on the causes of military coups were tested by both simple and multiple regression models for the Third World as a whole, as well as for four regions (Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa) and in two time periods (1960-1970 and 1971-1985). Similarly, three models of military rule (progressive, Huntington's, and revisionist models) were analyzed to assess the consequences of military rule. The results of the study concerning the causes of military coups suggest four conclusions. First, three independent variables (social mobilization, cultural homogeneity, and dominant ethnic groups in the society) have stabilizing consequences. Second, six independent variables (previous coup experience, social mobilization divided by political institutionalization, length of national independence, economic deterioration, internal war, and military dominance) have destabilizing consequences. Third, multiple regression models for each region are very useful; most models explain more than 50% of the variance in military coups. Fourth, the time period covered is an important factor affecting explanations of the causes of military coups. In the analysis of the consequences of military rule, this study found that military governments did not differ significally from civilian governments in terms of economic, education, health, and social performances. However, the study found that military rule decreased political and civil rights. Its findings are thus very consistent with the best of the literature.

Military mutinies are occurring more frequently in the last two decades than ever before. Mutinies impact every region of the world. Given that they are occurring more frequently, impact every region, and often have disastrous implications, scholars must answer the foundational question: why do mutinies occur? What are the proximate domestic conditions that give rise to military mutinies? This project makes three contributions. First, I set out to formally define mutinies and collect a new dataset that will allow scholars to examine mutinies empirically. Second, I present a theoretical framework that explains when and why mutinies will occur. Finally, I present three novel empirical tests of the theory. The first portion of this dissertation defines mutinies and describes the data collection process. I present the Military Mutinies and Defections Databases (MMDD). Using news articles from various sources, I code 460 mutiny events from 1945 – present day. I code a number of other variables that give users details about the event, such as: whether or not violence was used, whether or not civilians were killed, and whether or not soldiers defected from the military apparatus. Next, I utilize a nested principal agent model to describe when mutinies are likely to occur. Agent models describe hierarchical relationships of delegation. A nested structure allows for multiple agents and multiple principals in a given model. I apply this nested structure to the military to generate three various nests. The first examines foot soldiers as an agent of the military leadership. In this nest, policy failures (e.g., bad strategy) secured by the military leadership will drive foot soldier mutinies. The second nest explores foot soldiers as agents of the executive, a civilian principal. In this nest, I expect that situations that place soldiers in conflict with the executive will generate shirking. The final nest considers foot soldiers and military leadership as collective agents of the executive. I theorize that risk aversion and divergent preferences will drive shirking, or mutinies, in this nested structure. The final nest presents an interesting trade-off for a coup-worried leader. I argue that while executives can utilize regime securing strategies, such strategies might actually agitate the military and drive low level military rebellions. Coup proofing, a common practice among executives that are worried they will be ousted by the military, effectively wards of coups but can generate unintended consequences. Specifically, I expect that counterbalancing measures and other coup proofing tactics should spur mutinies because the intended purpose of these measures is to create coordination challenges which likely spur military splintering. The first empirical chapter sets out to explore the relationship between civil conflict and the likelihood of mutinies. I expect that when civil wars are extremely bloody or long lasting, mutinies will be more likely as war-weary soldiers no longer want to invest in the war effort. I find evidence that indeed civil war intensity and duration contribute to the probability of a state experiencing a mutiny. The second empirical chapter explores scenarios that pit foot soldiers preferences against the executive’s. I expect that scenarios that impose steep costs on foot soldiers, yet provide some benefit to the executive are likely to spur mutinies. I find evidence that protest events and divisionary conflict spur mutinies. The final empirical chapter explores the military apparatus as a whole. I find that coup proofing measures increase the likelihood of mutinies. Additionally, I find that scenarios that are likely to spur widespread dissent among military actors will increase the likelihood of a mutiny in the context of steep coordination challenges that stifle coup activity. The final chapter concludes by providing policy recommendations. I offer recommendations for leader states (e.g., major powers and democratic leaders in the international system) and for states experiencing mutinies. I conclude by discussing the many possible extensions for this project. This section seeks to emphasis the fact that this is a young, novel research program with many promising avenues for future research.

Thèse de doctorat : Génie des procédés et des produits : INPL : 2007. / Titre provenant de l'écran-titre. Bibliogr.

Thesis (M.S.S.(Political Science))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--North Texas State University, 1988. / Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 201-206).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--North Texas State University, 1988. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 201-206).

Unconstitutional changes, especially coups d’états, have undoubtedly eroded peace and security in many parts of the African continent. These occurrences have also stunted the development of democracy in some African states. The African Union (AU), supported by sub-regional bodies, addresses this problem by imposing sanctions on the regimes that acquire power through coups with the aim of restoring political order. However, this sanctions policy has produced mixed results. In some cases, these sanctions managed to succeed in achieving their objectives (Guinea) while in other instances sanctions failed to achieve their objectives (Madagascar). It is therefore imperative to inquire into the circumstances and assess the conditions under which the AU sanctions policies failed and succeeded in restoring political order to states that experience coups d’états. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)

Unconstitutional changes, especially coups d’états, have undoubtedly eroded peace and security in many parts of the African continent. These occurrences have also stunted the development of democracy in some African states. The African Union (AU), supported by sub-regional bodies, addresses this problem by imposing sanctions on the regimes that acquire power through coups with the aim of restoring political order. However, this sanctions policy has produced mixed results. In some cases, these sanctions managed to succeed in achieving their objectives (Guinea) while in other instances sanctions failed to achieve their objectives (Madagascar). It is therefore imperative to inquire into the circumstances and assess the conditions under which the AU sanctions policies failed and succeeded in restoring political order to states that experience coups d’états. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)

Au cours du IIIe siècle, l’Empire romain est confronté aux attaques militaires de ses voisins aux niveaux de sa frontière orientale et occidentale. Ces attaques parfois simultanées engendrent une instabilité du pouvoir impérial, caractérisée par la multiplication de coups d’État. L’objectif de cette étude était d’analyser ce phénomène politique de 235 à 284. Les questions essentielles de l’analyse étaient : Qu’est-ce qu’un coup d’État dans le contexte politique de l’Empire romain ? Comment se présente le coup d’État au cours de la période concernée et quels sont ses conséquences dans l’Empire. Ainsi, nous avons démontré à travers une analyse théorique que le phénomène de coup d’État n’est pas spécifique au IIIe siècle de l’Empire mais qu’il est consubstantiel au régime impérial. Après, cette démonstration, nous avons analysé chaque coup d’État et mis en relief leur augmentation avec l’intensification des attaques des ennemis de l’Empire. Pour chaque coup d’État était présenté, le contexte de sa proclamation, son déroulement et l’analyse politique qu’on pouvait en faire. Au terme de toute cette analyse, nous avons présenté les conséquences de ce phénomène politique tant sur la structure politique et militaire mais aussi sur la vie économique, sociale et administrative de l’Empire. / During the third century, the Roman Empire is faced with military attacks from its neighbors at its eastern and western borders. These simultaneous attacks generate instability for the imperial power, characterized by the increase of political coups. The objective of this study was to analyze this political phenomenon from 235 to 284. Critical analysis questions were: What is a coup in the political context of the Roman Empire? What is the process of a coup during the relevant period and what are its consequences for the Empire? We have shown through a theoretical analysis that the phenomenon of coups is not specific to the third century of the Empire, but it is consubstantial to the roman imperial regime. After this, we have analyzed each coup and highlighted the increase of their occurrence with the intensification of attacks by Rome’s enemies. For each coup analyzed, the context of its proclamation, its development and the political analysis was given. We have presented the consequences of this political phenomenon on both political and military structure and also on the economic and administrative life of the Empire.

The study focused on the positive or negative direction shown in 57 articles from ten English-language magazines covering the 1973 military coup in Chile, September 1 to December 31, 1973, inclusive. Magazines chosen were from the fields of news, religion, opinion, and business. Direction was determined by comparing individual thought units within articles against a category table comprising mutually exclusive pairs of thought units. Directional value of each article was determined by positive and negative ratios. Results showed a wide variation in scores, with news magazines adhering most closely to the objective ideal. Recommendations for further study included long-term study of single magazines or classes of magazines for direction, and an expanded mathematical analysis.