Cette thèse étudie la dynamique du marché des credit default swaps (CDS), instruments financiers de transfert du risque du crédit, et de ses relations avec les autres marchés, en particulier durant les épisodes de crise. Le marché des CDS a connu un développement vigoureux depuis son émergence, au milieu des années 90. Les volumes de contrats de CDS échangés ont augmenté à un rythme rapide, ce marché a ainsi connu le développement le plus rapide parmi les dérivés négociés de gré-à-gré (over-the-counter – OTC). Les participants de marché, principalement les grandes banques, ont su tirer parti des possibilités offertes par les outils de transfert de risque qui leur ont permis tout d'abord, de disposer d'instruments novateurs de protection contre le risque de crédit, mais aussi d'assurer l'expansion de leur activité d'intermédiation du crédit tout en optimisant les exigences en capital. Bien que le fonctionnement du marché des CDS ait connu une amélioration depuis le début des années 2000, plusieurs éléments mettent en doute l'hypothèse d'un marché efficient et résilient aux périodes de crise. A travers cinq articles empiriques, cette thèse se penche sur deux épisodes de crises durant lesquels le fonctionnement de ce marché a pu être perturbé : d'une part la crise de mai 2005, provoquée par la dégradation en catégorie spéculative de deux entreprises américaines majeures, General Motors et Ford, par les principales agences de notation ; d'autre part la crise financière ayant débuté en 2007 et qui a évolué en crise de la dette souveraine dans le cas des Etats européens à partir de fin 2009. L'étude de ces deux phases de crise montre que le développement du marché des CDS a participé à modifier les relations entre marchés, les investisseurs ayant fait des primes de CDS une source d'information privilégiée pour évaluer le risque de crédit. En effet, les travaux empiriques menés tout au long de la thèse concluent que ce marché est devenu progressivement le lieu où tendait à se dérouler le processus de découverte des prix. Ces travaux mettent également en lumière les vulnérabilités du marché des CDS, renforcées par des effets de contagion déjà à l'œuvre lors de l'épisode de crise de 2005, et incitent à une meilleure régulation des outils de transfert du risque de crédit et, d'une manière plus générale, des dérivés OTC. / This thesis studies the dynamics of the market in credit default swaps (CDS), which are credit risk transfer instruments, and the relationships between the CDS market and other markets, particularly during crisis periods. The CDS market has seen a boom since its emergence, in the mid-90s, and volumes of CDS contracts have increased at a rapid pace. Its growth has thus been the strongest among over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. Market participants, mainly the major banks, have taken advantage of the opportunities created by credit transfer instruments, which have offered new ways to hedge against credit risk and also contributed to the expansion of their credit intermediation activity, while optimising capital requirements. Despite the improvement of the CDS market's functioning since the early 2000s, several facts call the assumption of an efficient market that is resilient to crisis periods into question. Through five empirical articles, this thesis focuses on two crisis periods which during which the functioning of this market was affected: first, the General Motors and Ford crisis in 2005 following the downgrading of the credit ratings of these two flagship companies to speculative grade; and second, the financial crisis of 2007-2009 which turned into a sovereign debt crisis in the case of European countries from end-2009 onwards. The study of these two crisis periods shows that the growth of the CDS market has contributed to a change in the relationships between markets, as investors tend to regard CDS premia as a prime source of information to assess credit risk. Indeed, the empirical research conducted throughout the thesis concludes that this has gradually become the place where the price discovery process tends to occur. This work highlights the vulnerabilities of the CDS market, reinforced by the contagion effects at work during the 2005 crisis episode, and points to the need for better regulation of credit risk transfer instruments and, more broadly, of OTC derivatives.

La thèse étudie les effets du projet européen de taxation des transactions financières. Elle en analyse les conséquences sur la volatilité, la liquidité, les volumes des marchés d’actions et d’options, ainsi que sur le prix des actions et des obligations. Le Chapitre I, analyse les réactions des teneurs de marché d’option et conclut à un impact non significatif pour les marchés d’options très liquides, et un impact significatif pour les marchés d’options peu liquides, qui est maximal lorsque les positions des teneurs de marché sont détenues jusqu'à leur échéance. Le Chapitre II conclut à une hausse du coût du capital pour les entreprises européennes qui serait défavorisées vis à vis de leurs concurrents situés en dehors de l’EU. C’est la non liquidité des marchés d’options à maturité longue, et l’arbitrage entre dérivés de crédit et actions, qui conduit à cette hausse, d’après le Chapitre I. Le Chapitre III modélise simultanément les prix des actions et des obligations des entreprises. Il conclut à une baisse du prix de ces actifs due à l' introduction de la FTT. Les entreprises à fort levier et taxées à des taux faibles verraient une dépréciation du prix des actions plus élevée que leur concurrentes soumises à des taux plus élevés. Ceci suggère une harmonisation des taux de taxes dans l’EU préalablement à la mise en place de la FTT. Enfin, la FTT, qui déprime le prix des actifs émis par les entreprises, est en conflit avec la règlementation BASEL III qui vise à renforcer leurs fonds propres.En conclusion, notre approche par les options permet de formaliser l’impact sur la volatilité et de trouver une justification à la baisse du prix des actifs mise en évidence par plusieurs études empiriques portant sur des introductions passées de telles taxes au Royaume-Uni et en Suède. / The dissertation reviews the effects, on capital markets, of implementing, within the EU, an excise tax (the FTT) on all financial transactions. We review the effects on the volatility, the liquidity, trading volumes and the price of assets. In Chapter I, we analyze the option market-makers hedging strategies. We conclude to an insignificant effect of the FTT in highly liquid options markets, as opposed to a significant effect in low liquid option markets, the maximum being reached when market makers hold positions until their expiration date. Chapter II evidences a negative impact of the FTT on the corporate cost of capital due to the illiquidity of long dated option markets, and the arbitrage between equity and credit derivatives. The FTT would increase considerably the cost of capital of European companies whose main competitors are outside the EU.In Chapter III, we model both stocks and bonds theoretical prices and conduct simulations of their reaction to the introduction of the FTT. We find that both shares and bond prices will be negatively affected by the FTT, increasing the cost of capital, in the short and long run. Companies with high leverage and a low tax rate will see the price of their shares fall further than the price of shares of comparable, high-tax, leveraged companies. This suggests that EU should level all corporation tax rates, within the EU, prior to the introduction of the FTT. Finally, the FTT has an antagonistic effect to the Basel III regulation which seeks to increase the capital of banks, because at the same time it lowers the prices of securities issued by Banks. In conclusion, our original approach focusing on options, is fruitful. It makes possible to quantify the impact of FTT on volatility and allows a theoretical justification of the negative impact on asset prices found in empirical reviews of past experience of the introduction of a FTT.

This paper investigates the European CDS markets response to earnings announcements between the years 2011-2013. Through the use of event study methodology, we investigate if the CDS market reacts to earnings news in terms of abnormal spread changes. Furthermore, by exploring the pre- and post announcement window the study examines the efficiency of the CDS market. The results imply that earnings announcements provide valuable information to the CDS market, with statistically significant results on the 5 % and 10 % significant level for negative and positive news respectively. Additionally, the paper shows that the market has a rather symmetric reaction to negative and positive earnings news since there is no significant difference in effects. The paper further reveals that there is no significant difference in the response between different credit rating groups. In terms of market efficiency, the study cannot confirm that there is anticipation for earnings announcements. The study further shows that there is no post-earnings announcement drift in the CDS market and that the market, overall, is efficient in incorporating the information into the spreads. Finally, a cross-sectional regression analysis confirms that negative earnings surprises are linked to large announcement day reactions, while positive earnings surprises are not.

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around default and of market participants’ attempts to favorably move CDS’s underlying bond prices to achieve more profitable positions around default and emerging from CDS auctions. The analysis is performed by analyzing the effect of a bonds’ inclusion in CDS auctions on bond return volatility around the time of default while controlling for credit risk, illiquidity, firm fundamentals, and other bond-level controls. I find that bond return volatility around default is much higher as a result of a bond’s inclusion in a CDS auction, which serves as indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around default as market participants strive for more profitable CDS auction outcomes and possibly of manufactured credit events. Consistent with previous literature, I also find that bond illiquidity significantly impacts bond return volatility. My results are robust to propensity score matching, implementing double-robust estimators, and controlling for any time-varying cross-sectionally-invariant fluctuations in bond return volatility.

Credit derivatives are among the most criticized financial instruments in the current credit crises. Given their short history, finance professionals are still researching to discover effective ways to reduce the mark-to-market (MTM) volatility in credit derivatives, especially in turbulent market conditions. Many credit portfolios have been struggling to find out appropriate tools and techniques to help them navigate the current credit crises and hedge mark-to-market volatility in their portfolios. In this study we provide a tool kit to help reduce the pricing fluctuations in structured credit portfolios utilizing data analysis and statistical methods. In Chapter One we provide a snapshot of credit derivatives market by summarizing different types of credit derivatives; including single-name credit default swaps (CDS), market credit indices, bespoke portfolios, market index tranches, and bespoke tranches (synthetic CDOs). In Chapter Two we illustrate a method to calculate a stable hedge ratio (beta) by combining industry practices and statistical techniques. Choosing an appropriate hedge ratio is critical for funds that desire to hedge mark-to-market volatility. Many credit portfolios suffered 40%-80% market value losses in 2008 and 2009 due to the mark-to-market volatility in their long positions. In this chapter we introduce ten different betas in order to hedge a long bespoke portfolio by liquid market indices. We measure the effectives of these betas by two measures: Stability and mark-to-market volatility reduction. Among all betas we present, we deduct that the following betas are appropriate to be used as hedge ratios: Implied Beta, Quarterly Regression Beta on Spread Levels, Yearly Regression Betas on Spread Levels, Up Beta, and Down Beta. In Chapter Three we analyze the risk factors that impact the MTM volatility in CDS tranches; namely Spread Risk, Correlation Risk, Dispersion Risk, and Curve Risk. We focus our analysis in explaining the risks in the equity tranche as this is the riskiest tranche in the capital structure. We show that all four risks introduced are critical in explaining MTM volatility in equity tranches. We also perform multiple regression analysis to show the correlations between different risk factors. We show that, when combined, spread, correlation, and dispersion risks are the most important risk factors in analyzing MTM fluctuations in equity tranche. Curve risk can be used as an add-on risk to further explain local instances. After understanding various risk factors that impact the MTM changes in equity tranche, we put this knowledge to work to analyze two instances in 2008 in which we experienced significant spread widening in equity tranche. Both examples show that a good understanding of the risks that drive MTM changes in CDS tranches is critical in making informed trading decisions. In Chapter Four we focus on two topics: Portfolio Stratification and Index Selection. While portfolio stratification helps us better understand the composition of a portfolio, index selection shows us which indices are more suitable in hedging long bespoke positions. In stratifying a portfolio we define Class-A as the widest credits, Class-B as the middle tier, and Class-C as the tightest credits in a credit portfolio. By portfolio stratification we show that Class-A has significant impact on the overall portfolio. We use five different risk measures to analyze different properties of the three classes we introduce. The risk measures are Sum of Spreads (SOS), Sigma/Mu, Basis Point Volatility (BPVOL), Skewness, and Kurtosis. For all risk measures we show that there is high correlation between Class-A and the whole portfolio. We also show that it is critical to monitor the risks in Class-A to better understand the spread moves in the overall portfolio. In the second part of Chapter Four, we perform analysis to find out which credit index should be used in hedging a long bespoke portfolio. We compare four credit indices for their ability to track the bespoke portfolio on spread levels and on spread changes. Analysis show that CDX.HY and CDX IG indices fits the best to hedge our sample bespoke portfolio in terms of spread levels and spread changes, respectively. Finally, we perform multiple regression analysis using backward selection, forward selection, and stepwise regression methods to find out if we should use multiple indices in our hedging practices. Multiple regression analysis show that CDX.HY and CDX.IG are the best candidates to hedge the sample bespoke portfolio we introduced.

This paper explores the relationship between presidential elections and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) returns, as well as, equity returns in the Latin American countries, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. In particular, this paper tests whether or not presidential elections, which potentially represent political uncertainty and risk, affect sovereign CDS returns. I also analyze stock returns during the elections of each country to establish benchmarks that I compare to the CDS returns. Specifically, I evaluate the movement of CDS and equity adjusted returns (i.e. returns measured as deviations from average returns) over 7 presidential elections from 2005 to 2011. The baseline panel regression did not find statistical significance in the dummy election coefficients, but did find significance in the equity intercept coefficient at the 10 percent level. This result suggests that, on average, adjusted equity returns were higher during election periods than adjusted equity returns outside of election periods. I discuss the implications of these results later in the paper.

Chapter 1 develops a model of parallel trading of corporate securities (shares, bonds) and derivatives in which a large trader can sometimes profitably acquire securities and the corporate control rights inherent therein for the sole purpose of reducing the corporation's value and gaining on a net short position in the corporation created through off-setting derivatives. At other times, the large trader profitably takes a net long position in the corporation and exercises its control rights to maximize the corporation's value. This strategy is profitable if and because other market participants cannot observe the large trader's orders and hence cannot predict how the control rights will be exercised. In effect, the large trader is benefitting from trading on private information about payoff uncertainty that the large trader itself creates. This problem is most likely to manifest in transactions that give blocking powers to small minorities, particularly out-of-bankruptcy restructurings and freezeouts, and is bound to become more severe when derivatives trade on an exchange rather than over-the-counter. Chapter 2 investigates in parallel the cross-country determinants of crime and punishment in the largest possible sample of countries with data on homicides, victimization by common crimes (ICVS), incarceration rates, and the death penalty. While models with a small number of plausible covariates predict much of the variation of homicide and incarceration rates between major developed countries, they predict only one seventh of the actual US incarceration rate. Chapter 3 probes into the pervasive correlations between legal origins, modern regulation, and economic outcomes around the world. Where legal origin is exogenous, it is almost perfectly correlated with another set of potentially relevant background variables: the colonial policies of the European powers that spread the "origin" legal systems through the world. The chapter attempts to disentangle these factors by exploiting the imperfect overlap of colonizer and legal origin, and looking at possible channels, such as the structure of the legal system, through which these factors might influence contemporary economic outcomes. It find strong evidence in favor of non-legal colonial explanations for economic growth. For other dependent variables, the results are mixed. / Economics

Using an extensive cross-section of US corporate CDS this paper offers an economic understanding of implied loss given default (LGD) and jumps in default risk. We formulate and underpin empirical stylized facts about CDS spreads, which are then reproduced in our affine intensity-based jump-diffusion model. Implied LGD is well identified, with obligors possessing substantial tangible assets expected to recover more. Sudden increases in the default risk of investment-grade obligors are higher relative to speculative grade. The probability of structural migration to default is low for investment-grade and heavily regulated obligors because investors fear distress rather through rare but devastating events. (authors' abstract)

Cette thèse de doctorat s’articule en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre s’attache à trouver les déterminants principaux des variations hebdomadaires des marges de CDS, en période normale. Le deuxième chapitre se concentre, quant à lui, sur le comportement des marges de CDS dans les situations extrêmes. Nous exploitons dans ce chapitre les outils couramment employés dans l’analyse du risque systémique (CoVaR et régression quantile). Le troisième et dernier chapitre s’intéresse à l'impact des modifications de notations émises par les agences de rating (sur les marges de CDS). Nous procédons ici à une étude d’événements. Ces trois chapitres, de nature empirique, analysent donc, sous des angles différents. Ils insistent aussi dans leur interprétation sur la dimension sectorielle du marché des CDS. Bien que conçus séparément et indépendamment; les résultats de ces chapitres apparaissent, pour l’essentiel, assez cohérents. Ainsi, dans le premier chapitre, une série d’analyses en composantes principales menées sur les marges de CDS indiquent que le « secteur » constitue un facteur important. Dans le deuxième chapitre, les résultats fournis par la mesure de risque systémique appelée CoVaR suggèrent aussi que les secteurs dirigent le comportement des CDS individuels dans les moments extrêmes. / This thesis examines in three empirical essays levels and changes of CDS spread related to largest European companies. In the first chapter, we aim at identifying most important variables that drive CDS spreads in normal market conditions We suggest a list of new microeconomic variables and we find there exist some remaining sector wide common factors. In chapter two, we examine credit risk spillovers of CDS and equity markets under extreme conditions. To this end, we implement among other the very recent CoVaR technology of related entities. We also find here indirect evidences that sectors govern the behavior of individual CDS. In chapter three, we finally undertake a number of event studies on CDS and Equity daily data making use of hand-collected credit rating changes. Among other things, we evidence that both CDS spreads and equity prices move as the rating changes but also that movements differ according to upgrades, downgrades, succession and turnovers.

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