This thesis consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 and 2 The first chapter presents the introduction and the summary and the second chapter provides details on the survey and the data collection. Chapter 3 The demand and supply of credit in the rural finance markets are investigated in this paper using data on 989 households, in Orissa, India. The aim is to study the effects of household, farm productive characteristics and the policy variables on the demand and supply of credit. A type 3 Tobit model is estimated which corrects for sample selection and endogeniety bias. In addition, a generalised Double Hurdle model is estimated where the household's access to credit is treated distinctly from decisions about the interest rate charged. The results from the type 3 tobit model suggest that the size of the operational holdings, net-wealth, the dependency ratio, educational level of the household and the wages and output prices are important determinants of the demand and supply of credit. The Double Hurdle model suggests the important result that the size of land owned plays a crucial role in whether the household obtains a loan or not. Chapter 4 Based on the 'Rural Credit Market Survey of the Puri district in India', this paper investigates evidence on segmentation in the rural credit markets of Puri district. It further investigates the presence of any systematic association between the type of collateral offered by the household and the rate of interest at which it borrows. The data shows differences in the loan characteristics between the households borrowing from the formal and the informal sector. The empirical results confirm the presence of segmentation in the Puri credit market. For the households borrowing from the informal sector and the moneylenders, evidence also shows that the marketability of the collateral is inversely related to the interest rate. However, no such clear relationship is found for households borrowing from the formal sector. Chapter 5 In the theoretical and the empirical literature on rural credit markets it is widely assumed that the households are credit rationed in the formal sector, which offers subsidised credit. This view rests on the assumptions that all households have a positive demand for formal credit and that it is the cheaper source of credit. Three different models of formal credit rationing are estimated in this paper. The first model is a conventional credit-rationing model. The second model assumes that the probability to borrow from the formal sector is jointly determined by the demand for credit and the decision of the bank on access. Finally, the third model relaxes both these assumptions and the household chooses between borrowing from the formal or the informal sector. The results confirm that the access to the formal sector in the Puri rural credit markets is limited and that there exists a high demand for credit. This suggests a high degree of effective credit rationing by the formal sector in Puri.

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The purpose of this study is to explore the implications for various government stabilization policies of explicit consideration of market disequilibrium, especially credit rationing in the commercial bank loan market. The analysis centers in each case on the value of the government expenditure multiplier. First, a control or equilibrium version of the model is developed which is consistent with standard macrotheory and which contains a welldescribed banking sector. The results of the simulations with this version of the model confirm that the impact multiplier is larger when the deficit is financed by printing money than when bonds are issued to meet the requirement for funds. However, it is shown that in the long run the bond-financed multiplier is greater than the money-financed multiplier. This version of the model also confirms the possibility raised in the current literature that the bondfinanced case may be unstable. Since the current model has a well developed banking sector, the theory of the government finance restraint is extended to consider the case in which the deficit is financed by transferring the ownership of government bank deposits to the private sector. This case closely resembles the bond-financed case in the short run but it is statically stable. The deposit-financed case is limited, of course, by the initial size of the government deposits. Therefore, the restoration of the level of government deposits by one of the other means of financing is considered. Next, a disequilibrium version of the control model is developed consistent with current literature on disequilibrium phenomena. This version of the model contains a feedback mechanism by which a disequilibrium in one market will affect the decisions in all other markets. The results of the simulations with the disequilibrium model show that the government expenditure impact multiplier may be increased by the presence of credit rationing. In fact the bond-financed case which is unstable in the control version becomes stable under "equilibrium" credit rationing, where the loan rate does not adjust at all. Since the model used in this study is ad hoe, sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the importance of the exact values of the key parameters of the system. The policy implications of the study do appear to hing on the values of the feedback coefficients. If the force of credit rationing is mainly felt in the real sector, the government expenditure impact multiplier will be smaller in the disequilibrium version than in the control model. -on the other hand, if the impact of credit rationing is mainly felt in the financial sector, the opposite result will occur. However, the range of values that the multiplier may take on, depending on the impact of the credit rationing, is quite small. Thus, given the size of the error of prediction of standard models, this study concludes that it is unlikely that the inclusion of credit rationing will allow a better evaluation of government stabilization policies. This is especially true if the impact of credit rationing is believed to be in roughly the same proportion as normal expenditures in the various markets. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree Doctor of Technology: Public Management, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2015. / In 2006, the government-supported microfinance programmes implemented by the Kenyan government started lending credit to Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) using a group-lending mode, a change which represented a paradigm shift from individual lending mode. The overall aim of this research is to provide an investigation of whether the transformation of this lending policy was backed by any theoretical and empirical support. Specifically, the entirety of this study is intended to give an insight of what might have influenced the change, what informed it and what might have been overlooked. To achieve clarity and the study aim, the research is compartmentalised into three discrete studies. In the first study, a historical investigation into the factors which hindered MSEs from acquiring credit was undertaken. The second study investigated the reasons MSEs were credit rationed. The third study investigated whether the problems experienced by MSEs, associated with lack of credit access (lack of credit demand and rationing), could have been mitigated by group lending. The research utilised quantitative research design, the first two studies utilised data derived from National MSEs Baseline survey conducted in 1999. The third study utilised primary data collected from micro credit groups of the Kenya Rural Enterprise Programme (K-REP) in 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya. Various economic models and regression analysis were utilised in analysing different outcomes. In particular, the research utilised Univariate Probit, Bivariate Probit and Heckman Two-Stage Models to model various credit access outcomes. The study found that group lending largely mitigated information asymmetry- the main cause of MSEs failure to access credit. However, the study concludes that asymmetric information was not the only source of credit failure in Kenya. For group lending to work, or to have worked, it required support by other pro-MSE programme dynamics. This suggested that the government decision to change policy was partially informed by theory and practice. / D

La tesi contiene due saggi sull'economia delle politiche pubbliche a sostegno dell'accesso al credito per le piccole e medie imprese. Il primo valuta l'impatto netto sulla disponibilità e il costo del credito e sulle performanec delle imprese del più grande schema di garanzie pubbliche al credito in Italia. Il secondo indaga empiricamente gli effetti distorsivi della politica e i costi che ne derivano, con particolare focus sull'eterogeneità a livello di banca e di impresa. / The dissertation deals with the role of public policy in support of firms' access to credit. It is composed of two essays. The first is an evaluation of the net effect of an Italian public credit guarantee scheme in support of PMIs. The impact evaluation assesses financial outputs such as credit availability and conditions, as well as economic outputs such as firms' performance. The second essay empirically investigates how the presence of asymmetry of information can affect the output of these policies at the bank and firm level.

Les travaux de recherche menés dans cette thèse répondent à plusieurs problématiques concernant les Petites et Moyennes Entreprises (PME). Après un état de l'art et une proposition de classification des types de rationnement de crédit, les deux premières études s'interrogent sur l'accès des PME aux crédits bancaires : la première question concerne la prédiction du rationnement de crédit à partir des caractéristiques des PME, la deuxième est relative aux déterminants des conditions de crédit. Enfin, la troisième étude teste l'existence et les causes de la divergence des notations de crédit des PME. Les travaux économétriques menés dans ces trois études se sont appuyés sur deux échantillons différents : l'un construit à partir d'un questionnaire sur le rationnement du crédit envoyé à un panel de PME, l'autre contenant les PME clientes d'un établissement bancaire, ayant obtenu au moins un crédit sur la période d'étude de quatre ans. / This dissertation addresses several issues facing Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The first three articles are focusing on SMEs' access to bank loans. This issue contains two areas for intervention. The first is the prediction of credit rationing decision based upon SMEs characteristics. The second relates to the determinants of credit terms. The fourth article approaches the issue of the existence and causes of split rating. Researches covered in this thesis are based on two different samples. The first sample was constructed from a credit rationing survey sent to an SMEs panel. The second sample was supplied by one French mutual bank and relates to information on its credit reports and credit history over the period from 2007 to 2010.

Cette recherche est une contribution au débat sur la possibilité de concilier rentabilité, faible coût du crédit et large portée relative des institutions de microfinance. Elle discute aussi l’efficacité des subventions accordées à ces institutions. Enfin elle cherche à articuler la microfinance et la croissance économique dans les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Notre étude produit des résultats qui tendent à montrer qu’en Afrique subsaharienne les institutions de microfinance issues de la privatisation directe ou indirecte d’anciens réseaux de collecte étatiques ont une rentabilité négative mais touchent un grand nombre de personnes. A l’inverse les institutions de microfinance d’origine locale ont une taille relative beaucoup plus faible, leur part dans la distribution du crédit total à l’économie est faible, mais elles sont rentables. Deuxièmement la politique de subventions doit encourager les institutions à devenir autonomes plutôt que chercher à pérenniser les situations acquises d’endettement, tout en cherchant à réduire l’effet des coûts fixes sur le taux du crédit. Finalement, de la nature de la politique économique dépendra le développement relatif des secteurs formel et informel. Par exemple, une politique monétaire restrictive favorisera le secteur informel alors qu’une politique monétaire expansionniste favorisera le secteur formel. / The aim of this dissertation is to contribute on the debate about the possibility to reconcile return, low cost of credit and high relative outreach of microfinance institutions. It deals with efficiency of the granted subsidies to these institutions and at last with the interaction between microfinance and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The results of our study tend first of all to suggest that, in sub-Saharan Africa, microfinance institutions coming from the direct or indirect privatization of public development banks have a negative return but a high level of outreach, whereas microfinance institutions coming from local groups have a relative low size but are profitable and self-sufficient. The ratio of their gross loan portfolio to total loan is marginal. Secondly, subsidy policy should enforce microfinance institutions to become self-sufficient rather than perpetuate overdraft situations coming from the past. It should also aim at reducing fixed cost on loan rate. The development of formal and informal markets will depend on the nature of economic policy: a restrictive monetary policy will increase the informal market while an expansionist monetary policy will increase the formal market.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os modelos da firma bancária e crédito a partir de uma visão keynesiana. Inicialmente são apresentadas as proposições teóricas de Keynes e as derivações dessa a partir dos velhos e novos keynesianos. Na 2 parte os modelos representativos da firma bancária dessas escolas são descritos através de Tobin e Stiglitz, sendo neste último caso introduzido o conceito de assimetria de informação. No 3 capítulo é desenvolvida a abordagem pós-keynesiana de endogeneidade da oferta de moeda, sendo apresentados os modelos horizontalista de Moore, bem como as críticas da visão estruturalista, além do modelo de estratégia bancária de Alves, Dymski e Paula, desenvolvido a partir da hipótese de fragilidade financeira de Minsky. No capítulo 4 efetua-se uma discussão, feita por autores pós-keynesianos, sobre a possibilidade de compatibilizar em alguma medida o modelo de Tobin e o modelo de racionamento de crédito com a concepção pós-keynesiana de banco e crédito. / The present work aims at analyzing the models of the banking firm and credit from a Keynesian approach. Initially the theoretical proposals of Keynes and the Old and New Keynesian view of banking and credit are presented. In chapter 2 the representative models of the banking firm of these schools are described through Tobin and Stiglitzs model. In chapter 3 is developed the Post-Keynesian approach of money endogeneity - Moores banking firm model and the criticism made by the Post-Keynesian structuralist view. We also consider other Post Keynesian banking firm model, such as Dymskis model and Alves, Dymski and Paula banking strategy model. In chapter 4 we discuss if compatible the Post Keynesian approach is compatible or not with the conventional Keynesian theory of banking. In chapter 4 we consider the hypothesis of financial fragility of Minsky.

Small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) business owners influence the growth and development of sub-Saharan Africa and the welfare of its citizens. However, SME owners often lack the strategies to access and obtain invoice factoring financing to fund their businesses. Guided by the pecking order theory and the credit rationing theory, the purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies that 3 SME owners in Kenya used to access and obtain invoice factoring financing to fund their businesses. Data were collected from in-depth semistructured Skype interviews and organizational documents. Data were analyzed using the Krippendorff content analysis methodology. Member checking was used to validate the interview responses and enhance the credibility of results. Three strategy themes emerged from data analysis: proper documentation, effective third-party relationships, and connections with government officials. The study may contribute to positive social change for SME owners in sub-Saharan Africa by providing actionable strategies they can use to access and obtain invoice factoring financing to fund and sustain their businesses. Citizens of Kenya may experience more job opportunities, improved quality of life, increased household incomes, and sustained economic growth.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os modelos da firma bancária e crédito a partir de uma visão keynesiana. Inicialmente são apresentadas as proposições teóricas de Keynes e as derivações dessa a partir dos velhos e novos keynesianos. Na 2 parte os modelos representativos da firma bancária dessas escolas são descritos através de Tobin e Stiglitz, sendo neste último caso introduzido o conceito de assimetria de informação. No 3 capítulo é desenvolvida a abordagem pós-keynesiana de endogeneidade da oferta de moeda, sendo apresentados os modelos horizontalista de Moore, bem como as críticas da visão estruturalista, além do modelo de estratégia bancária de Alves, Dymski e Paula, desenvolvido a partir da hipótese de fragilidade financeira de Minsky. No capítulo 4 efetua-se uma discussão, feita por autores pós-keynesianos, sobre a possibilidade de compatibilizar em alguma medida o modelo de Tobin e o modelo de racionamento de crédito com a concepção pós-keynesiana de banco e crédito. / The present work aims at analyzing the models of the banking firm and credit from a Keynesian approach. Initially the theoretical proposals of Keynes and the Old and New Keynesian view of banking and credit are presented. In chapter 2 the representative models of the banking firm of these schools are described through Tobin and Stiglitzs model. In chapter 3 is developed the Post-Keynesian approach of money endogeneity - Moores banking firm model and the criticism made by the Post-Keynesian structuralist view. We also consider other Post Keynesian banking firm model, such as Dymskis model and Alves, Dymski and Paula banking strategy model. In chapter 4 we discuss if compatible the Post Keynesian approach is compatible or not with the conventional Keynesian theory of banking. In chapter 4 we consider the hypothesis of financial fragility of Minsky.