Usage of outputs from credit scoring models within decision-making process is often neglected in the existing literature. Nonetheless, it is a critical component of a successful lending process. This thesis introduces the concept of credit scoring and discusses steps typically employed within model development process. This thesis then provides an overview of how modeling outputs are typically used in lending. The thesis primarily focuses on definition of cut-offs points, policy and business rules, limit assignment and risk based pricing. The introduced approaches are modeled in the last part of the thesis.

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree Doctor of Technology: Public Management, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2015. / In 2006, the government-supported microfinance programmes implemented by the Kenyan government started lending credit to Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) using a group-lending mode, a change which represented a paradigm shift from individual lending mode. The overall aim of this research is to provide an investigation of whether the transformation of this lending policy was backed by any theoretical and empirical support. Specifically, the entirety of this study is intended to give an insight of what might have influenced the change, what informed it and what might have been overlooked. To achieve clarity and the study aim, the research is compartmentalised into three discrete studies. In the first study, a historical investigation into the factors which hindered MSEs from acquiring credit was undertaken. The second study investigated the reasons MSEs were credit rationed. The third study investigated whether the problems experienced by MSEs, associated with lack of credit access (lack of credit demand and rationing), could have been mitigated by group lending. The research utilised quantitative research design, the first two studies utilised data derived from National MSEs Baseline survey conducted in 1999. The third study utilised primary data collected from micro credit groups of the Kenya Rural Enterprise Programme (K-REP) in 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya. Various economic models and regression analysis were utilised in analysing different outcomes. In particular, the research utilised Univariate Probit, Bivariate Probit and Heckman Two-Stage Models to model various credit access outcomes. The study found that group lending largely mitigated information asymmetry- the main cause of MSEs failure to access credit. However, the study concludes that asymmetric information was not the only source of credit failure in Kenya. For group lending to work, or to have worked, it required support by other pro-MSE programme dynamics. This suggested that the government decision to change policy was partially informed by theory and practice. / D

在政府提倡金融自由化、國際化的引導下，台灣金融管制解放，金融機構擺脫過去寡占經營的局面紛紛林立，為了因應市場競爭，各種金融產品不斷推陳出新，放款限制亦不斷寬鬆，造成市場一片蓬勃。然而從1997年金融危機的發生，導致企業跳票的個案中，使我們注意到企業在自由化時期藉籌措資金之便，大行金錢投機遊戲，以股票質押再行借款投資。此種高度的財務槓桿操作，一旦面臨危機衝擊，抵押品價值下滑，勢必發生連鎖反應而危及營運。 本研究從市場資訊不對稱觀點說明，公司抵押品價值（淨值）下滑，對借款者的債務保障價值減少，加速資訊不對稱之二大問題───道德危機和逆選擇，促使經濟雪上加霜，引發全面性危機。本研究的實證結果如下： 1.台灣自1990年代後，紛紛以股票質押借款，放款隨股價變動而有循環性調整，銀行抵押放款捲入股價波動，脆弱的金融體系一旦因應景氣情勢緊縮信用，對經濟產生進一步抵押品效果。 2.由此次台灣企業財務危機教訓可知，出問題的多為股票質押，不動產質押因應危機的反映較低且台灣不動產不景氣已多年，銀行資本已消化部分壞帳。實證結果亦顯示股票質押相對不動產更有助長經濟向下沉淪的力量。 3.各國經濟結構有別，對抵押品寄予不同程度擔保。所得低的國家，債信程度亦低，金融機構愈仰賴抵押品進行貸款評估，但其效果並不顯著，表示所得並不是唯一考量債信的因素之一。儲蓄對利率的敏感度也是各國因應危機受創不一的因素，當政府為了捍衛匯率，提高利率的結果,無可避免的重創經濟體系，而逃離的資金對利率敏感度低下，卻不易回流至金融體系，整體而言，勢必對一國景氣恢愎速度造成阻力。 4.放款對股價彈性大小變動的幅度和綜合危機判斷指數成負相關。代表愈仰賴抵押品作為貸款條件的國家在面臨危機發生時，會因抵押品效果使經濟更加惡化。

En tant qu'acteur économique et politique sur la scène internationale, l’Union Européenne (UE) œuvre pour ses valeurs et ses intérêts à travers divers instruments. L'UE avec ses institutions est le deuxième plus grand bailleur de fonds en matière d’aide au développement aux pays tiers. Depuis 2000 dans un contexte des reformes pour le développement et l’aide, l’UE affirme son action extérieure, tout en augmentant son aide. En proposant une vision synthétique avec une approche interdisciplinaire et systémique, cette thèse dresse les évolutions et procède à un bilan de l’aide de l’UE à l’Ukraine pour la période 1991-2015. Dans cette optique, l’aide est examinée dans son ensemble, incluant l’aide au développement à >3.9Mrd € et l’aide économique à >8,47Mrd €. Le cadre politique (Politique européenne de voisinage) et contractuel pour la coopération UE-Ukraine définissent principalement les évolutions de l’aide. Dans une moindre mesure, les reformes du cadre pour le développement et l’efficacité de l’aide, ainsi que la politique économique de l’UE influencent ces évolutions, essentiellement en termes des modalités de l’aide. Cette analyse aide à la compréhension des perspectives de l’aide de l’UE à l’Ukraine en démontrant que celles-ci se présentent dans un recours accru aux financements innovants (mixage prêt-don) et sont indissociables de l’utilisation plus efficace des ressources budgétaires restreintes. Au-delà des financements, l’UE pourrait renforcer la coopération avec la BEI en augmentant le plafond du Mandat de Prêt Extérieur et en assouplissant les conditions des prêts sous-souverains et améliorer la coordination des donateurs en Ukraine via un mécanisme ad hoc. / As an economic and political actor on the international scene, the European Union (EU) promotes its values and interests through various instruments. The EU with its institutions is the second largest donor of development aid to third countries. Since 2000 in the context of development and aid reforms, the EU has been affirming its external action while increasing its aid.By proposing a synthetic vision with an interdisciplinary and systemic approach, this thesis draws up the evolutions of and reviews the EU aid to Ukraine for the period 1991-2015. In this perspective, the EU aid is examined as a whole, including development aid above € 3,9bn and economic aid above € 8,47bn. The political (European Neighborhood Policy) and contractual framework for the EU-Ukraine cooperation mainly define aid developments. To a lesser extent, the reforms of the framework for development and aid effectiveness, as well as the EU's economic policy influence these developments, essentially in terms of aid modalities.This analysis furthers the understanding of the prospects for the EU aid to Ukraine by demonstrating that these are part of an increased use of innovative financing (blending loan-grant) and are inseparable from more effective use of the limited budgetary resources. Beyond financing, the EU could strengthen cooperation with the EIB by increasing the ceiling of the External Lending Mandate and by easing the terms of sub-sovereign lending and improve donor coordination in Ukraine through an ad hoc mechanism.