This dissertation is a reaction to the public policy failures that culminated in, prolonged, and exacerbated the 2008 financial crisis in the United States. Between the winter of 2007 and the summer of 2009, the US private economy contracted severely. As of the summer of 2014, after a five-year recovery period, employment losses have been restored, but employment growth has not returned the US to its pre-crisis trend. This outcome is not the effect of a transient deviation that regularly happens as the economy moves through the business cycle; nor should the troubles in the US financial sector appear historically anomalous. The world's premier capitalist economy is prone to bouts of financial dysfunction. This feature is not simply a matter of the irrational exuberance of its investors, the euphoria of its speculators, or the folly of its bankers. I argue here that political-economic choices structure the distribution of financial crises at multiple scales. Broadly speaking, I find that the effects of financial crises on growth are uneven, affected by institutional structure, and carry important ramifications for the direction of change in the provision of financial services and its regulatory system. The thesis features four empirical chapters. In the first, I perform an econometric analysis of the effects of a wide variety of financial crises on employment growth by economic sector, for a sample of countries over a thirty-year period. The final three chapters are a case study of the US experience with the 2008 banking crisis and asset market crash, focusing on the role of the banking regulatory system in allocating losses over territory, on the economic performance of metropolitan areas, and on the distribution of losses within the financial sector in two major financial centers, Los Angeles and San Francisco. I reach my conclusions by using standard methodological tools within the sub-field of economic-geography and conceptual insights from the sub-field of financial-geography.

O nível de risco sistêmico no sistema financeiro tem sido objeto de constante preocupação no âmbito de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão. As crises financeiras ocorridas em países da América Latina, do Sudeste Asiático, na Rússia, e em diversos outros, causaram vultosos prejuízos econômicos e custos sociais elevados. As pesquisas referentes ao assunto têm buscado encontrar características comuns que possam sinalizar antecipadamente a proximidade dessas crises. Até o momento, as variáveis utilizadas são de natureza econômica, como reservas internacionais, taxa de câmbio e endividamento externo de curto prazo. Frente a essa constatação, este estudo buscou mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário com a utilização de variáveis contábeis e econômicas. Por meio das variáveis econômicas, relativas às taxas de juros e de câmbio, e das variáveis contábeis, representativas da qualidade do crédito e da liquidez, foi possível construir indicadores de riscos que, juntamente com outros de natureza puramente contábil, foram submetidos à análise de regressão logística, a fim de verificar a significância estatística desses indicadores, bem como a existência de modelos capazes de aferir a probabilidade de determinado sistema bancário ser classificado como suscetível ou não à ocorrência de crise. Os resultados alcançados revelaram a existência de indicadores contábeis e de riscos capazes de discriminar os sistemas bancários dos países componentes da amostra pelo nível de risco. As variáveis contábeis e econômicas mais associadas à ocorrência de crises são relacionadas com a qualidade dos créditos, o volume de resultados e o nível de taxa de juros. Todos os indicadores construídos com base nessas variáveis foram identificados como relevantes no processo de classificação, destacando-se os relacionados à volatilidade da inadimplência, à volatilidade da rentabilidade e à volatilidade da taxa de juros, assim como à média da rentabilidade e à média do risco de crédito. Corroborando essa evidência, as equações compostas pelos indicadores citados apresentaram percentuais de acerto nas classificações superiores a 90%. Adicionalmente à correta separação dos grupos, as classificações dos países foram ponderadas pelo índice de risco sistêmico (IRS), que expressa a probabilidade de pertencer a determinado grupo. O ordenamento dos países pelo grau de risco sistêmico no setor bancário fornece parâmetro de comparação significativo para a tomada de decisão calibrada à exigência de cada situação. Por meio dele, é possível saber qual país apresenta maior ou menor risco sistêmico. Além disso, o acompanhamento dos IRS de um país no tempo expõe as tendências e os pontos críticos, os quais servem de subsídios à atuação das autoridades responsáveis pela estabilidade e funcionamento do sistema, tanto do país em foco como dos países relacionados. / The systemic risk in the financial system has been a constant concern for the international institutions and supervisory authorities. The financial crises occurred in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia, and other countries, have caused significant economic damages and high social costs. The related researches have tried to find common characteristics able to early warn the proximity of crises. Up to now, the variables that have been used come from economic features, like international reserves, foreign exchange rate, and external debt. Considering the high correlation between the financial system and the economic health, the objective of this study is to measure the systemic risk of the banking system, utilizing accounting and economic variables together. Through the volatilities of economic variables, like interest rate and foreign exchange rate, and accounting variables, representatives of credit quality and liquidity, it was possible to build indicators comprising risk factors. These indicators, added to simple accounting indicators, were submitted to logistic regression analysis, in order to test the statistic significance of them, and to verify the existence of a model to evaluate the probability of any banking system be classified as susceptible, or not, to financial crises. The results exposed the existence of accounting and risk indicators capable to discriminate banking systems according to the risk level. The accounting and economic variables most associated to financial crises are related to credit quality, earnings, and interest rate level. All of indicators composed by these variables showed to be relevant in the classification process, highlighting those related to the volatility of non-performing loans, profitability, and interest rate, as well those representatives of the profitability and credit risk means. Confirming that, the equations resulted in correct classification above 90%. In addition to the correct segregation between groups, the countries classifications were weighted by the systemic risk index (IRS), which expresses the probability to become to each group. The classification of countries by the level of systemic risk provides parameters for comparison of situations and to take actions adjusted to the severity of each one. Through these indexes (IRS), it is possible to recognize which country has more or less systemic risk, and to monitor trends and critical points, which are so important to the authorities responsible for the financial system stability.

Depuis que la libéralisation financière a été adoptée par la plupart des pays de la région Moyen Orient et Afrique du Nord (MENA), le nombre de crises bancaires n’a pas cessé d’augmenter. Ce qui nous amène à analyser la relation entre libéralisation financière et les crises bancaires. Notre thèse s’attache à mettre en évidence le rôle important de la libéralisation financière sur les crises bancaires. Ce travail traite l’une des principales causes de l’échec de processus de libéralisation financière, à savoir la négligence du rôle primordial que jouent les institutions juridiques, économiques et politiques dans la réalisation de la stabilité financière. Afin de démontrer l’importance de l’organisation institutionnelle, nous avons vérifié l’impact négatif des défaillances institutionnelles présentes dans les pays de la région MENA sur l’occurrence des crises bancaires systémiques. L’objectif de notre recherche est de démontrer que les pays de la région MENA détiennent des caractéristiques institutionnelles très différentes et que pour favoriser l’application des réformes financières libérales, il est désormais indispensable d’envisager des réformes institutionnelles et règlementaires bien adéquates avec les conditions sociales, politiques de chacun des pays de la région MENA. / Since financial liberalization has been adopted by most countries of the Region Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the number of banking crises has not ceased to increase. This leads us to analyze the relationship between financial liberalization and banking crises. Our thesis aims to highlight the important role of financial liberalization on banking crises. This work addresses one of the main causes of the failure of liberalization process Financial namely the negligence of the primordial role played by legal institutions, economic and political in achieving financial stability. To demonstrate the importance of institutional organization, we verified the pejorative impact of institutional failure present in the countries of the MENA region on the occurrence of systemic banking crises. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that the countries of the MENA region hold very different institutional characteristics and to facilitate the implementation of financial reforms liberal, it is henceforth essential to consider well adequate institutional and regulatory reforms with, social political conditions of each country of the MENA region.

by Chan Wing Tai, Chu Yee Wah, Yewa. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-80). / Abstract --- p.2 / Chapter Chapter I --- Introduction --- p.3 / Chapter Chapter II --- Literature Review & Methodology / Literature Review --- p.5 / Methodology --- p.6 / Chapter Chapter III --- Asian Financial Crisis / Causes of Crisis --- p.7 / Economic Impacts of the Crisis --- p.9 / Lessons for the Affected Economies --- p.11 / Lessons for Non-affected Economies --- p.12 / The Asian Economy --- p.13 / Impacts of Asian Financial Crisis on Countries --- p.16 / Chapter Chapter IV --- Mutual Fund and Asia Crisis / Introduction to Mutual Fund --- p.24 / Regional Economic Environment after Crisis --- p.25 / Asset Allocation of Mutual Fund --- p.37 / Impacts of Asian Financial Crisis on Mutual Fund --- p.44 / Mutual Fund Facts Before and After Crisis --- p.50 / Mutual Fund Performance Before and After Crisis --- p.54 / Asian Markets Outlook --- p.62 / Perspective in Asia Pacific Funds --- p.66 / Recommendation & Conclusion --- p.68 / Appendix --- p.70 / Bibliography --- p.77

Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-07-31T18:00:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PauloRonchi.pdf: 1766429 bytes, checksum: 76c6360db3e23b56179601ae1d249ed1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-31T18:00:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PauloRonchi.pdf: 1766429 bytes, checksum: 76c6360db3e23b56179601ae1d249ed1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-27 / The main objective of this study, based on the economic literature, was to understand Brazilian economic and social development from 1999 to 2014, under the inflation targeting regime. For this, the evolution of the economic thought from Adam Smith to the consolidation of the phenomenon of the economic development as specific subject of study of the economic science was presented. The study was carried out with an extensive bibliographical research, seeking the contribution of several economists, in order to highlight the economic theories that underpin the economic development policies, as well as the theoretical framework of the regime of inflation targets. One of the relevant aspects of this study was to identify the differentiation between growth and economic development. In addition, the study sought to demonstrate the Brazilian development experience from 1999 to 2014, under a form of conducting the specific monetary policy, called the inflation targeting regime. The study sought to evaluate economic policies from the fiscal, monetary, social and commercial perspectives to base and compare the political cycles between 1999 and 2014. / O principal objetivo deste estudo, apoiado na literatura econômica, foi de compreender o desenvolvimento econômico e social brasileiro no período de 1999 a 2014, sob o regime de metas de inflação. Para isso, se apresentou a evolução do pensamento econômico desde Adam Smith até a consolidação do fenômeno do desenvolvimento econômico como matéria especifica de estudo da ciência econômica. O estudo foi realizado com uma ampla pesquisa bibliográfica, buscando a contribuição de diversos economistas, a fim de evidenciar as teorias econômicas que alicerçam as políticas de desenvolvimento econômico, bem como o arcabouço teórico do regime de metas de inflação. Um dos aspectos relevantes desse estudo foi identificar a diferenciação entre o crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico. Além disso, o estudo procurou demonstrar a experiência de desenvolvimento brasileira de 1999 a 2014, sob uma forma de conduzir a política monetária especifica, denominada de regime de metas de inflação. O estudo procurou avaliar as políticas econômicas sob as óticas fiscal, monetária, social e comercial para embasar e comparar os ciclos políticos entre 1999 e 2014.

Ch. 1. Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China -- Ch. 2. The time-varying volatillity of Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations. / Leung, Pak Ho. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / COVER PAGE --- p.1 / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.2 / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.4 / LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES --- p.6 / ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER I --- p.9 / Chapter 1. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.11 / Chapter 2. --- FEATURES OF POST-CRISIS CHINESE MONETARY POLICY --- p.13 / Chapter 2.1. --- LIBERALIZATION OF CHINA'S MONETARY POLICY IN RECENT YEARS --- p.14 / Chapter 2.2. --- MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS AND TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3. --- EXCHANGE RATE REFORM AND MONETARY POLICY --- p.17 / Chapter 2.4. --- EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND INFLATION --- p.18 / Chapter 3. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.20 / Chapter 4. --- DATA DESCRIPTION --- p.22 / Chapter 5. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.23 / Chapter 5.1 . --- ESTIMATION OF FAVAR WITH REPO RATE AS INSTRUMENT --- p.24 / Chapter 5.2. --- ESTIMATION OF FAVAR WITH BENCHMARK RATE AS INSTRUMENT --- p.25 / Chapter 5.3. --- ESTIMATION OF FAVAR WITH MONETARY FACTOR AS INSTRUMENT --- p.26 / Chapter 5.4. --- ESTIMATION OF FAVAR WITH TOTAL LOAN AS INSTRUMENT --- p.27 / Chapter 5.5. --- ESTIMATION OF FAVAR WITH M2 AS INSTRUMENT --- p.28 / Chapter 5.6. --- POLICY DISCUSSION --- p.29 / Chapter 6. --- CONCLUSIO N --- p.31 / Chapter 7. --- REFERENCE S --- p.32 / Chapter 8. --- APPENDIX --- p.36 / ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER II --- p.60 / Chapter 1. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.62 / Chapter 2. --- OVERVIEW OF CHINESE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE --- p.64 / Chapter 2.1. --- VOLATILITY OF THE CHINESE MACROECONOMY --- p.64 / Chapter 2.2. --- TESTS OF PARAMETER STABILITY --- p.66 / Chapter 2.2. --- HYPOTHESIS OF ECONOMIC MODERATION --- p.67 / Chapter 3. --- FREQUENCY DOMAIN ANALYSIS --- p.69 / Chapter 3.1 --- ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK --- p.70 / Chapter 3.2. --- ESTIMATION RESULTS --- p.72 / Chapter 4. --- VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS --- p.75 / Chapter 4.1 --- ESTIMATION RESULTS --- p.70 / Chapter 5. --- CONCLUSION --- p.78 / Chapter 6. --- REFERENCES --- p.80 / Chapter 7. --- APPENDIX --- p.84

Les îles du bassin caribéen figurent parmi les territoires dans le monde ayant la particularité d’être exposés à tous les types de risque naturel à l’exception du risque d’avalanche. Pourtant, le bilan global quant à leur prise en compte effective reste peu satisfaisant : En effet on constate des lacunes tant au niveau de l’information des populations qu’au niveau des moyens « administratifs et techniques » de réponse au risque. Le risque volcanique en particulier, bien que concernant onze territoires dans les petites Antilles, est relativement « éclipsé » par les autres risques dans les agendas gouvernementaux. Or, les « poudrières » de la Caraïbe sont pour la plupart actives. De plus, du fait de leur exiguïté et de la concentration de populations et d’infrastructures aux abords des volcans ; les territoires insulaires ont une vulnérabilité accrue. Des manifestations violentes peuvent entraîner, comme l’ont montré les cas de la Montagne Pelée en Martinique (1902) et plus récemment celui de la Soufrière Hills à Montserrat (1995 à nos jours), un bilan humain particulièrement lourd. Surtout, même en tempérant le risque de perte de vies humaines grâce à la prévision, une crise volcanique majeure reste synonyme de désastre économique. Le caractère exceptionnel des manifestations volcaniques suffit-il à expliquer ce bilan ? Cette interrogation première nous amène à questionner les mécanismes caractérisant la gestion du risque volcanique dans les Caraïbes insulaires. Notre étude porte ainsi sur les deux crises qui ont été les plus débattues en matière de retour d’expérience : celle de la Soufrière de Guadeloupe en 1976 et celle de la Soufrière Hills de Montserrat, qui a connu son pic en 1997. La comparaison des politiques publiques de gestion des crises étudiées nous permet d’identifier les facteurs orientant la stratégie des autorités compétentes en amont et en aval des crises. / The islands of the Caribbean basin are among the territories in the world having the distinction of being exposed to all types of natural hazard except avalanche risk. However, the overall assessment of their effective consideration remains unsatisfactory: Indeed, there are gaps in both the information of the population and the level of "administrative and technical" means of response to risk. Volcanic risk in particular, although affecting eleven territories in the Lesser Antilles, is relatively "overshadowed" by other risks in government agendas. However, the "powder keg" of the Caribbean are mostly active. Moreover, because of their small size and the concentration of populations and infrastructures around volcanoes; island territories have increased vulnerability. Violent demonstrations can lead, as has been shown in the cases of Mount Pelee in Martinique (1902) and more recently that of the Soufrière Hills in Montserrat (1995 to the present day), a particularly heavy human toll. Above all, even with the risk of loss of life due to the forecast, a major volcanic crisis is synonymous with economic disaster.Is the exceptional character of volcanic events enough to explain this assessment? This first interrogation leads us to question the mechanisms characterizing the volcanic risk management in the insular Caribbean.Our study thus focuses on the two crises that have been the most debated in terms of feedback: that of Soufrière Guadeloupe in 1976 and that of Soufrière Hills Montserrat, which peaked in 1997. The comparison of public crisis management policies studied allows us to identify the factors guiding the strategy of the competent authorities upstream and downstream of crises.

<p>This study focus on decision makers in Swedish foreign and security politics with a special focus on two national crises. The crises that have been chosen for this study are the submarine U17 crisis and the shipwreck of the passenger ferry Estonia. The first crisis occurred in the fall of 1981 when the Swedish government accused the Soviet for violating Swedish territory with a Soviet submarine. The second crisis occurred in the fall of 1994 when Estonia, with over 900 people, ended up in a storm and the result of the shipwreck was that only 137 people were rescued.</p><p>The aims of the study are to analysis the Swedish crises preparedness and in the future develop and make it more effective. The thesis employs the following research questions to answer the purpose:</p><p>- How did the actors that were responsibility for the Swedish crises preparedness act when they found out about U137 and the shipwreck of Estonia to bother the best outcome?</p><p>- How did the final results of the crises preparedness in U137 and shipwreck of Estonia actually came out?</p><p>The method of the study is a type of an appraisal method that explains how you could evaluate a political decision. The results that I found in points that it is necessary to do more research in the subject area. None of the crises were handled very effective in crises preparedness way and in the future more coordination and collaboration with different public authority and private organisations is needed to meet the threat and the obstacles that a society today stands in front of.</p>

Thesis (Ph. D.)--American University, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 267-272).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Pennsylvania, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 397-427).