Thesis (Ph. D.)--Vanderbilt University, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 111-117).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 367-394).

Les crises récentes sont la manifestation la plus concrète des limites du mode d’accumulation actuel. Ce régime, à dominante financière, laisse libre jeu aux comportements grégaires, source de fragilité et de dysfonctionnement des systèmes économiques et financiers. Au regard de cette évolution de la finance globale, marquée fortement par des épisodes répétés de crises et d’instabilité, nous proposons dans une première partie un travail d’analyse des différents facteurs qui fragilisent le système financier mondial. Il s’agit pour nous de déceler tout ce qui pourrait constituer un vecteur d’instabilité ou de crise. Nous établissons le lien direct entre la libéralisation financière, la spéculation et les crises, et nous démontrons que les stratégies spéculatives des fonds de performance, des fonds d’investissement et des banques d’affaires sont les sources majeures d’instabilité. Nous présentons un examen critique exhaustif de l’ambigüité qui caractérise les résultats des études théoriques et empiriques dans leurs traitements des effets déstabilisants de la globalisation. Dans la seconde partie, nous étudions l’efficacité des contrôles des mouvements internationaux de capitaux en cas de crise. L’examen des expériences de certains pays nous permet de mettre la lumière sur les avantages et les coûts de ces contrôles. Nous nous intéressons aux pays émergents qui s’étaient engagés dans la libéralisation du compte de capital à la suite d’une forte ouverture au commerce internationale et qui ont réinstauré les contrôles pour limiter les potentiels déstabilisants des entrées massives de capitaux (comme le Chili), ou pour éviter des sorties massives de capitaux en période de crise (comme la Malaisie). Nous étudions aussi les conditions qui limitent l’efficacité des contrôles. / Recent crises are the most concrete manifestation of the limitations of current accumulation mode. The scheme, predominantly financial, gives free play to herd behavior, a source of weakness and dysfunction of the economic and financial systems. Given this evolution of global finance, strongly marked by repeated episodes of crises and instability, we propose in the first part of a job analysis of the various factors which undermine the global financial system. It is for us to identify anything that might be a vector of instability or crisis. We establish the direct link between financial liberalization, speculation and crises, and demonstrate that speculative fund performance, investment funds and investment banks strategies are the major sources of instability. We present a comprehensive critical review of the ambiguity that characterizes the results of theoretical and empirical studies in their treatments destabilizing effects of globalization. In the second part, we study the effectiveness of controls on international capital movements in time of crisis. A review of the experiences of some countries allows us to shed light on the benefits and costs of such monitoring. We focus on emerging markets, which were engaged in the liberalization of the capital account after a strong opening to international trade and have reintroduced controls to limit the destabilizing potential of strong capital inflows (such as Chile), or to avoid massive capital outflows in times of crisis (such as Malaysia). We also study the conditions that limit the effectiveness of controls.

This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector. / This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector.

O nível de risco sistêmico no sistema financeiro tem sido objeto de constante preocupação no âmbito de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão. As crises financeiras ocorridas em países da América Latina, do Sudeste Asiático, na Rússia, e em diversos outros, causaram vultosos prejuízos econômicos e custos sociais elevados. As pesquisas referentes ao assunto têm buscado encontrar características comuns que possam sinalizar antecipadamente a proximidade dessas crises. Até o momento, as variáveis utilizadas são de natureza econômica, como reservas internacionais, taxa de câmbio e endividamento externo de curto prazo. Frente a essa constatação, este estudo buscou mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário com a utilização de variáveis contábeis e econômicas. Por meio das variáveis econômicas, relativas às taxas de juros e de câmbio, e das variáveis contábeis, representativas da qualidade do crédito e da liquidez, foi possível construir indicadores de riscos que, juntamente com outros de natureza puramente contábil, foram submetidos à análise de regressão logística, a fim de verificar a significância estatística desses indicadores, bem como a existência de modelos capazes de aferir a probabilidade de determinado sistema bancário ser classificado como suscetível ou não à ocorrência de crise. Os resultados alcançados revelaram a existência de indicadores contábeis e de riscos capazes de discriminar os sistemas bancários dos países componentes da amostra pelo nível de risco. As variáveis contábeis e econômicas mais associadas à ocorrência de crises são relacionadas com a qualidade dos créditos, o volume de resultados e o nível de taxa de juros. Todos os indicadores construídos com base nessas variáveis foram identificados como relevantes no processo de classificação, destacando-se os relacionados à volatilidade da inadimplência, à volatilidade da rentabilidade e à volatilidade da taxa de juros, assim como à média da rentabilidade e à média do risco de crédito. Corroborando essa evidência, as equações compostas pelos indicadores citados apresentaram percentuais de acerto nas classificações superiores a 90%. Adicionalmente à correta separação dos grupos, as classificações dos países foram ponderadas pelo índice de risco sistêmico (IRS), que expressa a probabilidade de pertencer a determinado grupo. O ordenamento dos países pelo grau de risco sistêmico no setor bancário fornece parâmetro de comparação significativo para a tomada de decisão calibrada à exigência de cada situação. Por meio dele, é possível saber qual país apresenta maior ou menor risco sistêmico. Além disso, o acompanhamento dos IRS de um país no tempo expõe as tendências e os pontos críticos, os quais servem de subsídios à atuação das autoridades responsáveis pela estabilidade e funcionamento do sistema, tanto do país em foco como dos países relacionados. / The systemic risk in the financial system has been a constant concern for the international institutions and supervisory authorities. The financial crises occurred in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia, and other countries, have caused significant economic damages and high social costs. The related researches have tried to find common characteristics able to early warn the proximity of crises. Up to now, the variables that have been used come from economic features, like international reserves, foreign exchange rate, and external debt. Considering the high correlation between the financial system and the economic health, the objective of this study is to measure the systemic risk of the banking system, utilizing accounting and economic variables together. Through the volatilities of economic variables, like interest rate and foreign exchange rate, and accounting variables, representatives of credit quality and liquidity, it was possible to build indicators comprising risk factors. These indicators, added to simple accounting indicators, were submitted to logistic regression analysis, in order to test the statistic significance of them, and to verify the existence of a model to evaluate the probability of any banking system be classified as susceptible, or not, to financial crises. The results exposed the existence of accounting and risk indicators capable to discriminate banking systems according to the risk level. The accounting and economic variables most associated to financial crises are related to credit quality, earnings, and interest rate level. All of indicators composed by these variables showed to be relevant in the classification process, highlighting those related to the volatility of non-performing loans, profitability, and interest rate, as well those representatives of the profitability and credit risk means. Confirming that, the equations resulted in correct classification above 90%. In addition to the correct segregation between groups, the countries classifications were weighted by the systemic risk index (IRS), which expresses the probability to become to each group. The classification of countries by the level of systemic risk provides parameters for comparison of situations and to take actions adjusted to the severity of each one. Through these indexes (IRS), it is possible to recognize which country has more or less systemic risk, and to monitor trends and critical points, which are so important to the authorities responsible for the financial system stability.

Face à un constat de déconnexion entre la valorisation de trois types d’actifs (deux actifs financiers et un actif immobilier) et les fondamentaux économiques dans la période récente, marquée par l’occurrence de crises économiques et financières sévères, cette thèse vise à mettre en évidence le rôle des anticipations des agents économiques.Premièrement, cette thèse souligne que le rôle des anticipations dans la récente crise de dette en zone euro est lié à l’existence de complémentarités stratégiques dans les décisions des agents économiques. Dans cette perspective, l’apport de cette thèse est de s’intéresser à un fait central et pourtant passé relativement inaperçu : la hausse de la part de dette détenue par les résidents dans les économies les plus fragiles de la zone euro à partir de la fin 2008. Nous montrons que si les chocs d’endettement public ont bien un effet positifs ur le biais domestique dans la détention de dette publique, les chocs d’anticipations pessimistes peuvent également jouer un rôle significatif pour expliquer les variations du biais domestique. Deuxièmement, cette thèse montre que la volatilité excessive du prix de certains actifs relativement aux fondamentaux peut être expliquée dans le cadre de modèles standards dès lors que l’on relâche l’hypothèse d’anticipations rationnelles et que l’on suppose que les agents estiment les paramètres des lois gouvernant la dynamique des fondamentaux, à la façon d’économètres. Sous cette hypothèse, un modèle de prix d’actifs standard permet d’expliquer l’épisode de forte valorisation du prix des actions américaines au début des années 2000, suivi par un fort effondrement des cours à partir de 2008 et jusqu’à mi-2009.Enfin, nous montrons que modéliser un processus d’apprentissage bayésien sur le prix des actifs immobiliers dans le cadre d’un modèle DSGE avec des frictions de crédit permet d’expliquer simultanément la forte volatilité des prix immobiliers - qui a joué un rôle central dans la crise des subprimes - et celle de variables caractérisant le cycle des affaires aux Etats-Unis sur la période 1985-2015. / In view of the disconnect between the pricing of three types of assets (two types of financial assets and real-estate assets) and economic fundamentals in the recent period ofsevere economic and financial crises, this thesis aims at highlighting the role of economicagents’ expectations.First, this thesis emphasizes that the role of expectations in the recent Eurozonesovereign debt crisis relates to strategic complementarities in agents’ decisions. In thisrespect, this thesis focuses on one major but mostly unnoticed fact: the share of governmentdebt held by the resident sector increased beginning at the end of 2008 in the mostfragile economies of the zone. We show that – whereas public debt shocks positively affectthe home bias in sovereign debt – pessimistic expectation shocks can also significantlyexplain variations in home bias.Second, this thesis shows that excess volatility in stock and in house prices relativeto fundamentals can be accounted for by standard models when the rational expectationshypothesis is relaxed and when agents are assumed to estimate the parameters of the lawsof motion driving the dynamics of economic fundamentals – that is, as econometricians.Under this assumption, a standard asset pricing model can explain the persistently highvaluation in US stock prices in the early 2000s followed by their dramatic bust by 2009.Finally, we show that modelling Bayesian learning regarding house prices in the contextof a DSGE model with credit frictions allows us to simultaneously replicate the dramaticvolatility in house prices - which played a crucial role in the subprime crisis - and in businesscycle variables over the 1985-2015 period.

The diploma thesis deals with economy of Egypt and its position in the international tourism market. The aim of the thesis is to analyse economy and tourism of Egypt and define their relationship. The thesis is focused on the period of global economic crises and the following political crises, and tries to emphasize the impact of these two events. The thesis is divided into three chapters; the first one is a theoretical basis for the analysis itself. The second chapter is devoted to an outline of the political situation and analyses development of the main macroeconomic indicators in the context of the events of past few years. The third chapter analyses tourism and its effect on the economy.

Cette thèse comporte trois chapitres traitant de la question de l’accumulation de réserves de change dans les pays émergents. Sous différents angles, théorique comme empirique, les trois travaux présentés analysent les motivations d’accumulation de réserves de change et testent l’utilité de ces avoirs en devises étrangères pendant la crise financière mondiale de 2009. Le chapitre 1 montre que l’accumulation de réserves résulte de l’interaction entre une forte croissance de la productivité et des frictions sur le marché financier. De plus, l’accumulation de réserves est d’autant plus efficace que les flux de capitaux privés sont contrôlés. Les gains du bien-être issus d’une utilisation combinée de réserves et de contrôles de capitaux diminuent avec le développement des marchés financiers. A l’aide d’une base de données comprenant 112 pays émergents et en voie de développement, le chapitre 2 examine la relation entre l’accumulation de réserves avant la crise de 2009 et la performance économique pendant la crise. Lorsque le ratio d’adéquation de réserves de change est calculé en point de pourcentage par rapport à la dette extérieure à court terme, la performance économique d’un pays pendant la crise est positivement corrélée avec les réserves de change d’avant la crise. Ce chapitre montre aussi les nouvelles tendances dans le comportement d’accumulation des réserves après la crise. Le chapitre 3 traite de la question des effets de bilan et le rôle des réserves change. Il montre qu’en accumulant des réserves de change, le gouvernement est en mesure stabiliser l’économie nationale, en recapitalisant le secteur privé avec ses devises ou en faisant une relance fiscale. / This thesis includes three essays on foreign reserves, crises and growth. Chapter 1 proposes a theoretical model to look at foreign reserve accumulation in fast-growing emerging economies. The demand for foreign reserves stems from the interaction between productivity growth and underdevelopment of the domestic financial market. During economic transition, foreign reserve accumulation is proved to be welfare improving as long as private capital flows are controlled. Chapter 2 is an empirical work on the role of foreign reserves during the global financial crisis. It is found that the level of reserves matters: countries with high reserves relative to short-term debt suffered less from the crisis, particularly if associated with a less open capital account. In the immediate aftermath of the crisis, countries that depleted foreign reserves during the crisis quickly rebuilt their stocks. This rapid rebuilding has, however, been followed by a deceleration in the pace of accumulation. Chapter 3 takes a political economy stance and shows how reserves can be used to stabilize the domestic economy when the private sector faces credit constraint and currency mismatch. It is argued that both a targeted lending in foreign currency or a fiscal spending financed by foreign reserves help remove the bad equilibrium. Nevertheless, these two policy tools differ in the mechanism through which they stabilize the domestic economy and in terms of the amount of foreign reserves needed.

La dynamique des crises politiques au Burkina Faso a été empreinte de mobilisations multisectorielles ayant entraîné une désectorisation conjoncturelle de l'espace social avec pour corollaire une mobilité des enjeux des confrontations et des transactions collusives d’opposition et de gouvernement. Ces mobilisations se sont faites autour d’enjeux relatifs notamment : à la conquête du pouvoir d’État, au contrôle de l’appareil d’État ; à l’amélioration des conditions de vie des travailleurs ; à la propriété foncière ; à l’intangibilité des règles constitutionnelles relatives à l’exercice du pouvoir d’État ; à l’alternance au sommet de l’État ; à la participation de certains acteurs à la compétition politique ; à la prise de mesures d’atténuation de la cherté de la vie ; à la quête de la vérité et de la justice.Au final, les mobilisations multisectorielles ont été à l’origine de changements politiques qui, selon la conjoncture, ont été soit pacifiques, soit violents.Quelles que soient leurs caractéristiques, les différentes crises politiques ont contraint les protagonistes, mais aussi des tierces personnes à ces crises, à y trouver des solutions par le recours à diverses stratégies.Ces stratégies de sortie de crises politiques se sont jouées autour d’enjeux liés à : la conservation du pouvoir politique, la préservation de la paix sociale, le redressement économique et financier de l’État, le rétablissement de l’ordre public, la quête de la vérité et de la justice, l’obtention du pardon et de la réconciliation nationale.Elles ont donné lieu à une diversité d’initiatives avec pour corollaire une variété des moyens, coercitifs et pacifiques, utilisés pour sortir des situations de crise. En outre, les initiatives de sortie de crises politiques ont débouché sur des dynamiques de transitions constitutionnelles et de justice transitionnelle. Si elles ont constitué des processus distincts, elles n’en ont pas moins eu des finalités communes : la garantie des droits et la reconstruction de l’État de droit. Ces finalités communes peuvent coïncider de sorte que la dynamique de justice transitionnelle intègre le texte constitutionnel consacrant ainsi sa constitutionnalisation. Finalement, ces dynamiques transitionnelles ont constitué des fenêtres d’opportunités pour procéder à des réformes constitutionnelles et de politiques publiques. / The dynamics of the political crises in Burkina Faso have been marked by multisectoral mobilizations having led to a cyclical desectorization of the social space, with the consequence of a mobility of the stakes of confrontations and collusive opposition and government transactions.These mobilizations were made around relative issues including: the conquest of state power, the control of the state apparatus; to the improvement of the living conditions of the workers; land ownership; the inviolability of constitutional rules relating to the exercise of State power; alternation at the top of the state; the participation of certain actors in the political competition; taking measures to mitigate the high cost of living and the quest for truth and justice.In the end, the multisectoral mobilizations have been at the origin of political changes which, according to the conjuncture, were either peaceful or violent.The different political strategies have forced the protagonists, but also third parties to these crises, to find solutions by the use of various strategies.These strategies out of political crises were played around issues related to: the preservation of political power, the preservation of social peace, the economic and financial recovery of the state, the restoration of public order, the quest truth and justice, obtaining forgiveness and national reconciliation.They have given rise to a variety of initiatives, resulting in a variety of means, coercive and peaceful, used to emerge from crisis situations. In addition, the initiatives to end political crises have resulted in constitutional transitions and transitional justice. Although they constituted distinct processes, they nevertheless had common goals: the guarantee of rights and the reconstruction of the rule of law. These common goals can coincide so that the dynamics of transitional justice integrate the constitutional text thus consecrating its constitutionalisation. Finally, these transitional dynamics constituted windows of opportunity to carry out constitutional and public policy reforms.

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