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An Application of Multiple Regression in Exchange Rate Arrangements.Ndiritu, Gachiri Charles. January 2008 (has links)
<p>This project " / An application of multiple regression in exchange rate arrangement" / focused on the processes followed by different countries when choosing an exchange rate regime for currency stabilization. It analyses the consequences faced by emerging markets as a result of changes in volatility of developed countries&rsquo / currencies (American Dollar, Japanese Yen, EURO, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar).</p>
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An Application of Multiple Regression in Exchange Rate Arrangements.Ndiritu, Gachiri Charles. January 2008 (has links)
<p>This project " / An application of multiple regression in exchange rate arrangement" / focused on the processes followed by different countries when choosing an exchange rate regime for currency stabilization. It analyses the consequences faced by emerging markets as a result of changes in volatility of developed countries&rsquo / currencies (American Dollar, Japanese Yen, EURO, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar).</p>
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Ropa a měnový kurz vyspělých zemí importujících ropu / Oil and Exchange Rates of Developed Countries Importing OilSkoupil, Lubomír January 2011 (has links)
This diploma thesis looks from theoretical and practical point of view at the relation between the price of oil and exchange rates of developed countries importing this vital resource. First, the character of the dependence between terms of trade and exchange rates is analyzed, followed by a description and verification of models of relationship between the terms of trade and exchange rates. Subsequent text is focused on another models, which analyze directly the connection between oil prices and exchange rates. The thesis ends with a discussion on other possible connecting links in this relation.
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Globální hry / Global GamesFiala, Tomáš January 2012 (has links)
In this thesis we review literature about the coordination problem under an uncertainty. We set up a continuum player model of collective action, in which part of the population must coordinate on an action in order to achieve a mutual benefit. The complete information version of the model features multiple equilibria. We study the role of various sources of uncertainty in the model and compare them. We also examine the role of private and public information. We discuss particularly the global game, the coordination game of incomplete information in which agents received different but correlated signals about the state. We demonstrate that in the global game an unique equilibrium can be found by iterated elimination of dominated strategies. We compare the global game to related models and examine the consequences of relaxing the assumptions of global game. In addition we show some practical implication of the model for revolutions and currency crises.
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外匯市場動能效果分析 / The Analysis of the Momentum Effect in Monthly Currency Market謝皓雯, Hsieh, Hao Wen Unknown Date (has links)
本文主要研究外匯市場在1983年11月到2014年10月期間是否存在動能效果(momentum effect),並再更深入探討可能造成動能效果的原因。本文以美國投資者的角度,使用62個國家的貨幣,發現在使用較短期的遠期外匯及回顧較近期的歷史報酬作為判斷是否交易的依據,這樣的動能策略可以招致較高且較穩定成長的累積報酬;但是若使用較長天期遠期外匯及以較遠期的歷史報酬判斷,動能策略可能較不顯著,並且累積報酬也較不穩定,甚至在外幣國家發生突發性貨幣危機時,在外匯市場通常會發生反轉效果(reversal effect)。另外也驗證出動能策略的超額報酬很大部分是受到交易成本和即期匯率波動的影響。我們發現國家風險和動能效果平均而言呈現正向關係,流動性風險相較於國家風險對於動能效果的影響性較低。 / We investigate whether momentum effect exist or not in the foreign exchange market. We find, based on a sample of 62 market currencies and view U.S Dollar as based currency, the evidence of higher and more stable momentum excess returns as we apply the short formation and holding period in our momentum strategy portfolios. However, when we apply long formation and holding period in our momentum strategy portfolios, we find less momentum effect and unstable cumulative excess returns, and even in the crisis, we find reversal rather than momentum. Additionally, we provide the evidence that transaction cost and spot rate change is the dominant influence on momentum effect. The relationship between country risk and momentum effect is positive significance and liquidity risk provide less evidence on momentum effect.
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[en] ESSAYS ON CURRENCY MISMATCHES, HEDGE AND PERFORMANCE OF BRAZILIAN FIRMS IN CURRENCY CRISES / [pt] ENSAIOS SOBRE DESCASAMENTOS CAMBIAIS, HEDGE E DESEMPENHO DAS EMPRESAS BRASILEIRAS EM CRISES CAMBIAISMARCIO MAGALHAES JANOT 23 March 2007 (has links)
[pt] Esta tese de doutorado consiste de três ensaios
relacionados ao gerenciamento de risco cambial e ao
desempenho das empresas brasileiras em períodos de crises
cambiais. O primeiro ensaio testa se as perdas patrimoniais
implicadas pelas depreciações cambiais reduzem o
investimento das empresas. Encontramos que, entre 2001 e
2003, empresas com elevados descasamentos cambiais na
véspera da crise reduziram seus investimentos em 8,1 pontos
percentuais, comparativamente às demais empresas de capital
aberto. Mostramos, também, que a depreciação cambial
aumentou a competitividade das empresas exportadoras, mas,
ainda assim, implicou perda de 12,5 pontos percentuais no
investimento das exportadoras com descasamentos cambiais,
relativamente às demais exportadoras. Essas quedas
estimadas de investimento são economicamente muito
relevantes, corroborando a importância dos efeitos
patrimoniais negativos das depreciações cambiais. O segundo
ensaio investiga se a listagem de ações nos Estados Unidos
através de ADRs disciplina as decisões corporativas.
Mostramos que as emissões de ADRs induzem uma gestão de
risco cambial mais eficiente: em antecipação à crise
cambial brasileira de 1999, em média, as empresas com ADRs
reduziram em 6,4 pontos percentuais a proporção de
descasamento cambial sobre ativos, relativamente às
empresas sem ADRs. Resultados adicionais conectam esse forte
ajuste à pressão de arbitradores internacionais.
Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio testa se as garantias
governamentais de que não haverá uma desvalorização
significativa do câmbio, implícitas nos regimes de câmbio
administrado, estimulam um endividamento excessivo em moeda
estrangeira. Dados de empresas brasileiras, antes e depois
do fim do regime de câmbio administrado em 1999, sugerem
que tais garantias não são relevantes para a decisão de
endividamento em moeda estrangeira. / [en] This thesis consists of three essays that relate the
currency risk management with the performance of Brazilian
firms in currency crises. The first essay tests if
the exchange-rate balance sheet effects of the currency
depreciation reduce the companies´ investments. We find
that, between 2001 and 2003, firms that shortly before the
crisis had large currency mismatches decreased their
investment rates by 8.1 percentual points, relatively to
other public firms. Moreover, we show that the currency
depreciation implied large competitive gains for the
exporters, and yet the investment of exporters with large
currency mismatches fell by 12.5 percentual points,
relatively to other exporters. The estimated falls in
investment are economically very relevant, thereby
corroborating the relevance of negative exchange-rate
balance sheet effects of currency depreciation. The second
essay investigate if the cross-listing in the U.S., mainly
through ADRs, discipline corporate decisions. Using data on
the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999, we show that firms
with ADRs manage their currency risk more effectively.
Anticipating the crisis, ADR firms reduced the average
ratio of their currency mismatches over assets by 6.4
percentage points, relatively to other public firms.
Additional results link this stronger adjustment to the
pressure of international arbitrageurs. Finally, the third
essay tests if the government guaranties that there won´t
be a large devaluation of the exchange rate, implicitly in
a fixed exchange-rate regime, bias corporate borrowing
towards foreign currency. Data on Brazilian firms, before
and after the end of the fixed exchange rate regime in
1999, suggest that the implicit guarantees do not have a
relevant impact on firms´ incentives to issue foreign debt.
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Indikátory měnových a bankovních krizí / Indicators of currency and banking crisisKašpar, Jan January 2017 (has links)
This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.
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Exchange market pressure: an evaluation using extreme value theory / Napětí na devizovém trhu: měření pomocí teorie extrémních hodnotZuzáková, Barbora January 2013 (has links)
This thesis discusses the phenomenon of currency crises, in particular it is devoted to empirical identification of crisis periods. As a crisis indicator, we aim to utilize an exchange market pressure index which has been revealed as a very powerful tool for the exchange market pressure quantification. Since enumeration of the exchange market pressure index is crucial for further analysis, we pay special attention to different approaches of its construction. In the majority of existing literature on exchange market pressure models, a currency crisis is defined as a period of time when the exchange market pressure index exceeds a predetermined level. In contrast to this, we incorporate a probabilistic approach using the extreme value theory. Our goal is to prove that stochastic methods are more accurate, in other words they are more reliable instruments for crisis identification. We illustrate the application of the proposed method on a selected sample of four central European countries over the period 1993 - 2012, or 1993 - 2008 respectively, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The choice of the sample is motivated by the fact that these countries underwent transition reforms to market economies at the beginning of 1990s and therefore could have been exposed to speculative attacks on their newly arisen currencies. These countries are often assumed to be relatively homogeneous group of countries at similar stage of the integration process. Thus, a resembling development of exchange market pressure, particularly during the last third of the estimation period, would not be surprising.
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A economia brasileira ao longo da década de 1990 e a crise cambial de 1999: um estudo econométrico baseado nos modelos de primeira e segunda geraçãoMiyake, Adriana Keiko 20 June 2006 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2006-06-20 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / As transformações ocorridas nas últimas décadas na economia internacional
provocaram graves crises monetárias e fmanceiras em diversos países, resultando em crises
cambiais e no abandono do regime de câmbio fixo. O aumento do poder do capital financeiro
sobre o produtivo, decorrente da maior abertura e da desregulamentação dos mercados
financeiros, foi um dos fatores que aumentou a vulnerabilidade de economias menos
preparadas para essas mudanças, como foi o caso de muitos países em desenvolvimento.
Ainda, a abertura comercial ocorrida nesses países expôs seu setor produtivo à crescente
concorrência externa de grandes empresas multinacionais. Aliada a esses fatores, a forma com
que a política foi conduzida por seus respectivos governos contribuiu para a deflagração da
cnse.
A crise cambial brasileira, ocorrida no início de 1999, acarretou problemas para toda a
economia brasileira. Diante disso, este trabalho procurou estudar os fatores que poderiam ser
apontados como responsáveis por esse acontecimento, para que, no futuro, situações
semelhantes sejam previstas com maior antecedência e para que medidas sejam tomadas para
evitar este tipo de desfecho. Foi feito um acompanhamento da economia, ao longo da década
de 1990, para se identificar as variáveis que levaram à crise cambial. A partir disso, foi
utilizado um instrumental matemático (regressão do tipo Probit) para se chegar a um modelo
econométrico que relacionasse essas variáveis à probabilidade de ocorrência de crise.
Diferentemente do que ocorreu nos países do leste asiático, que suscitou o desenvolvimento
dos modelos chamados de terceira geração, o resultado obtido no caso brasileiro se mostrou
em conformidade com aspectos tanto dos modelos de primeira quanto de segunda geração
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由金融帳之角度探討亞洲通貨危機 / From Financial Account to Asian Currency Crisis郭怡婷, Kuo, Yi-Ting Unknown Date (has links)
90年代末東亞金融危機造成多國貨幣大幅貶值,銀行紛紛倒閉。基本上金融危機可分為通貨危機(Currency Crisis)與銀行危機(Banking Crisis);通貨危機是指當年中任一季名目匯率貶值超過25%,且貶值幅度比前一季超過10個百分點。諸多實證文獻顯示,高估一國匯率為其通貨崩潰之先驅;又由於近年來新興國家快速開放資本市場,以致於成為危機之導火線。為分析此一現象,本文首先編製金融帳權數之新台幣實質有效匯率指數,並將東亞之台灣、印尼、韓國、菲律賓、泰國等五國之匯率、相對物價(各國與美國物價)、金融帳餘額等變數做共整合關係檢定,觀察三個變數的長期均衡關係,再將誤差項加入模型中,建構向量誤差模型。實證結果發現,金融帳與相對物價對匯率有顯著之影響力。 / The 1997 East Asian Crises had made exchange rate depreciations and bank bankruptcies. Broadly speaking, it can be divided into currency crisis and banking crisis. Nominal exchange rate of any season in a year, which is depreciated over 25% and 10% than last season, is called a currency crisis. Lots of papers demonstrate that overvaluation is a precursor of a currency crash. Furthermore, developing countries have opened capital markets so rapidly that it became the tinderbox of crises. To analyze the phenomenon, this thesis first compile Taiwan’s financial weighted real effective exchange rate index, then examine exchange rates, relative prices (compare to American consumer price index), and net financial account of Taiwan, Indonesia, Korea, Philippine, and Thailand with cointegrated test to identify the long run equilibrium relationships between variables; then adding error terms into models to estimates vector error correction model (VECM). The empirical results show that financial account and relative price influence exchange rate significantly.
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