No description available.

Com a promulgação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), foram instituídas as regras de disciplina fiscal com o objetivo de reduzir o déficit público e estabilizar o montante da dívida pública em relação ao Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Essas regras de disciplina fiscal compõem as restrições orçamentárias rígidas (hard budget constraint), destacando-se a exigência do orçamento equilibrado, o limite legal do endividamento, a destinação da dívida para investimentos e o controle indireto da dívida por meio do limite de despesas com pessoal. Todavia, dentre essas regras, os gestores dos grandes Municípios brasileiros alegam que o limite legal de endividamento de 1,2 da Receita Corrente Líquida (RCL) fixado pelo Senado Federal é inadequado, pois é único para todos os governos locais sem apresentar tratamento diferenciado aos grandes Municípios que possuem profundas diferenças em termos de população, renda e receita. Nesse contexto, é extremamente importante avaliar o desempenho fiscal da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros, tendo como foco o nível de endividamento segundo os recursos potenciais desses governos locais e das restrições orçamentárias instituídas pela LRF. Assim, esta tese tem como objetivo central medir e explicar o desempenho do nível da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros em função dos recursos potenciais para servir à dívida e dos mecanismos de restrições orçamentárias. Para tanto, foram considerados, no estudo, todos os grandes Municípios acima de 500.000 habitantes. Para medir o desempenho do nível da dívida, foi utilizada a análise envoltória de dados (DEA) em painel, denominada de DEA Dinâmica DSBM (Dinamic Slacks Based Model) com dados de 2000 a 2008, considerando como input o nível da dívida, como variável carryover o resultado primário e como outputs variáveis representativas dos recursos potenciais do Município: PIB, valor das propriedades e tamanho populacional. O desempenho do nível da dívida obtido com o DEA DSBM foi explicado pelas regras de disciplina fiscal com o uso da regressão GEE (Generalized Estimating Equations). Os resultados não rejeitaram as hipóteses de que o limite de despesas com pessoal e a destinação da dívida para investimentos são responsáveis para garantir o desempenho do nível da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros. Os resultados rejeitaram a hipótese do equilíbrio orçamentário corrente influenciar positivamente o desempenho da dívida, contudo, considerando que para o cumprimento dessa regra fiscal é necessário observar as demais regras testadas, confirmou-se a tese de que os mecanismos de restrições orçamentárias provocam efeitos positivos no nível da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros. Esses achados veem acentuar e eficácia da LRF no controle do endividamento público. Por outro lado, os dados revelaram que as transferências voluntárias, por representarem ajuda financeira implícita, atuam como uma força contrária ao desempenho do nível da dívida, flexibilizando as restrições orçamentárias, conforme prevê a hipótese do soft budget constraint (restrição orçamentária flexível). Considerando a relevância da regra fiscal do limite de endividamento no contexto das restrições orçamentárias, o estudo investigou se o limite fixado pelo Senado Federal reflete os recursos potenciais dos grandes Municípios. Os resultados revelaram, contrariamente ao esperado, que o limite legal é bastante elevado para esses Municípios, exceto para São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro, cuja capacidade de endividamento, segundo seus recursos potenciais, conduz a um limite médio de 0,35 da RCL. Contudo, para os Municípios de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro o limite legal deveria ser bem maior que o instituído pelo Senado Federal, respectivamente, 1,84 e 1,64 da RCL, haja vista o considerável tamanho populacional desses Municípios, o significativo fluxo de riqueza expresso pelo PIB e a expressiva riqueza da comunidade representada pelo valor das propriedades. Acredita-se que esse estudo tenha contribuído para uma reflexão da dívida pública, apresentando uma metodologia que auxilie no avanço de estudos nessa área. / With the promulgation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) some rules for fiscal discipline were set in order to reduce the public deficit and stabilize the public debt relative to Gross National Product (GDP). These rules compound the hard budget constraint, highlighting the balanced-budget requirement, the legal limit of indebtedness, the allocation of debt for investments and indirect control of debt through the limit of personnel expenses. However, among these rules, managers of large municipalities in Brazil claim that the legal limit of indebtedness of 1.2 over the Net Current Revenue (NCR) set by the Senate is inadequate because it is unique for all local governments without giving special treatment to major municipalities that have sound differences in terms of population, income and revenue. In this context, it is extremely important to assess the fiscal performance of the debt of major Brazilian cities, focusing on the level of debt according to the potential resources of local governments and budget constraints imposed by the FRL. So, this thesis has as principal purpose to measure and explain the performance of the debt level of the major Brazilian municipalities in terms of potential resources and mechanisms of budget constraints. To do that, we considered in the study all the larger municipalities over 500,000 inhabitants. In order to measure the performance of the debt level we used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in a panel of data, called Dynamic DEA DSBM (Slacks Based Dynamic Model) with data from 2000 to 2008, considering the debt level as input, the primary result as carryover variable and as output variables that represent the potential resources of the City: GDP, property values and population size. The performance of the debt level achieved using DEA DSBM was explained by the rules of fiscal discipline using GEE regression (Generalized Estimating Equations). The results did not reject the hypothesis that the limit of personnel expenses and the allocation of debt for investments are responsible for ensuring the performance of the debt level of the major Brazilian municipalities. The results rejected the hypothesis of the current balanced budget to positively influence the performance of debt, however, considering that to obey this rule it\'s necessary to observe the further rules tested, we confirmed the thesis that the mechanisms of budget constraints cause positive effects on the debt level of large Brazilian municipalities. These findings intensified the efficacy of the FRL in the control of public debt. On the other hand, the data revealed that voluntary transfers, which represent implicit financial aid, act as a counterforce to the performance level of debt, weakening the budget constraints, as predicted by the hypothesis of soft budget constraint. Considering the importance of the fiscal rule of debt limit in the context of hard budget constraints mechanism, this study investigated whether the limit set by the Senate reflects the potential resources of the major Brazilian cities. The results showed, contrary to the expectations, that the legal limit is quite high for large municipalities, except for São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, because the debt capacity of these municipalities, according to its potential resources, leads to an average limit of 0.35 of the NCR. However, for the municipalities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro the legal limit should be much larger than that established by the Senate, respectively, 1.84 and 1.64 of the NCR, because of the considerable size of population, the significant flow of wealth expressed by the GDP and the considerable wealth of the community represented by the property values. We believed this study has contributed to a reflection of the public debt and introducing a methodology to assist in the progress of studies in this area.

The aim of this thesis is to point out recent development in the field of debt creation, its concordance with academic practice and to outline feasible utilization of financial modeling in the area of government deficits. The effort is to put institutional operation of debt management into context of recent history of financial markets and to verify its success. The process of debt portfolio management with use of advanced financial tools is shown on the sample of Czech debt manager. From the observation of the overall environment we can state the effort to develop efficient domestic debt market and the conception of long-term strategies based on risk management principles and to draw a set of specific recommendations applicable both to local and general conditions.

Tyrimo objektas – skolos našta. Darbo tikslas – parengti metodiką ir įvertinti skolos naštą. Uždaviniai: 1. atskleisti valstybės skolos esmę, klasifikavimą bei skolinimosi tikslus; 2. išanalizuoti teigiamą ir neigiamą skolos poveikį ekonomikai; 3. nustatyti kokiais santykiniais rodikliais bei metodais vertinama skolos našta; 4. parengti skolos naštos įvertinimo metodiką; 5. įvertinti Lietuvos skolos naštą ir palyginti su kitomis Baltijos šalimis. Tyrimo metodai: mokslinės literatūros analizės ir sintezės metodas, matematinio modeliavimo ir apibendrinimo metodai, statistinių rodiklių rinkimo, palyginimo ir grafinio vaizdavimo būdai. Lietuvos valstybės skolos naštos įvertinimas atliktas 2001–2011 m. laikotarpiu. Tyrimo rezultatai. Pirmoje darbo dalyje atskleidus valstybės skolos esmę, sudėties svarbą, bei skolinimosi tikslus, nustatytas teorinis valstybės skolos poveikis ekonomikai. Antroje darbo dalyje, išanalizavus įvairių mokslininkų darbus, pateikti skolos naštos įvertinimo modeliai, išskiriami skolos naštos įvertinimo rodikliai, parengta skolos naštos įvertinimo metodika. Trečioje darbo dalyje, pagal siūlomą skolos naštos įvertinimo metodiką, įvertinta Lietuvos skolos našta, gauti rezultatai palyginami su kitomis Baltijos šalimis, nustatytos rezultatų priežastys. Tyrimo rezultatai parodė, kad Lietuvos ir Latvijos didėjanti valstybės skola jau tapo neigiamai ekonomiką veikiančiu makroekonominiu rodikliu, kuris rodo, kad valstybės skola tampa našta ateities kartoms... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Object of the research – debt burden. Aim of the research – to prepare methods and to assess the debt burden. Objectives: 1. to reveal the essence of the public debt, classification and goals of borrowing; 2. to analyze the positive and negative effects of debt on the economy; 3. to determine the indicators and methods to be used in evaluating the debt burden; 4. to prepare methods for the debt burden assessment; 5. to assess the debt burden of Lithuania, to compare it with that of other Baltic countries. Research methods: analysis and synthesis of scientific literature, mathematical modeling, aggregation, statistical data collection, comparison, visualization techniques. The evaluation of Lithuanian public debt burden was carried out during the period of 2001-2011. Research results. The first part reveals the essence of the public debt, the importance of its composition and borrowing targets, determines the theoretical impact on the economy. The second part analyzes the models of the debt burden, distinguishes the figures of debt burden, prepares methodology the debt burden. The third part employs the methology of the debt burden of Lithuanian debt for future generations, compares the results obtained with those of the other Baltic countries, establishes reasons of results. The results show that growing national debt of Lithuania and Latvia has become a negative macro-economical indicator, which shows that public debt would be a burden for future generations. Lithuanian... [to full text]

Com a promulgação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), foram instituídas as regras de disciplina fiscal com o objetivo de reduzir o déficit público e estabilizar o montante da dívida pública em relação ao Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Essas regras de disciplina fiscal compõem as restrições orçamentárias rígidas (hard budget constraint), destacando-se a exigência do orçamento equilibrado, o limite legal do endividamento, a destinação da dívida para investimentos e o controle indireto da dívida por meio do limite de despesas com pessoal. Todavia, dentre essas regras, os gestores dos grandes Municípios brasileiros alegam que o limite legal de endividamento de 1,2 da Receita Corrente Líquida (RCL) fixado pelo Senado Federal é inadequado, pois é único para todos os governos locais sem apresentar tratamento diferenciado aos grandes Municípios que possuem profundas diferenças em termos de população, renda e receita. Nesse contexto, é extremamente importante avaliar o desempenho fiscal da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros, tendo como foco o nível de endividamento segundo os recursos potenciais desses governos locais e das restrições orçamentárias instituídas pela LRF. Assim, esta tese tem como objetivo central medir e explicar o desempenho do nível da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros em função dos recursos potenciais para servir à dívida e dos mecanismos de restrições orçamentárias. Para tanto, foram considerados, no estudo, todos os grandes Municípios acima de 500.000 habitantes. Para medir o desempenho do nível da dívida, foi utilizada a análise envoltória de dados (DEA) em painel, denominada de DEA Dinâmica DSBM (Dinamic Slacks Based Model) com dados de 2000 a 2008, considerando como input o nível da dívida, como variável carryover o resultado primário e como outputs variáveis representativas dos recursos potenciais do Município: PIB, valor das propriedades e tamanho populacional. O desempenho do nível da dívida obtido com o DEA DSBM foi explicado pelas regras de disciplina fiscal com o uso da regressão GEE (Generalized Estimating Equations). Os resultados não rejeitaram as hipóteses de que o limite de despesas com pessoal e a destinação da dívida para investimentos são responsáveis para garantir o desempenho do nível da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros. Os resultados rejeitaram a hipótese do equilíbrio orçamentário corrente influenciar positivamente o desempenho da dívida, contudo, considerando que para o cumprimento dessa regra fiscal é necessário observar as demais regras testadas, confirmou-se a tese de que os mecanismos de restrições orçamentárias provocam efeitos positivos no nível da dívida dos grandes Municípios brasileiros. Esses achados veem acentuar e eficácia da LRF no controle do endividamento público. Por outro lado, os dados revelaram que as transferências voluntárias, por representarem ajuda financeira implícita, atuam como uma força contrária ao desempenho do nível da dívida, flexibilizando as restrições orçamentárias, conforme prevê a hipótese do soft budget constraint (restrição orçamentária flexível). Considerando a relevância da regra fiscal do limite de endividamento no contexto das restrições orçamentárias, o estudo investigou se o limite fixado pelo Senado Federal reflete os recursos potenciais dos grandes Municípios. Os resultados revelaram, contrariamente ao esperado, que o limite legal é bastante elevado para esses Municípios, exceto para São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro, cuja capacidade de endividamento, segundo seus recursos potenciais, conduz a um limite médio de 0,35 da RCL. Contudo, para os Municípios de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro o limite legal deveria ser bem maior que o instituído pelo Senado Federal, respectivamente, 1,84 e 1,64 da RCL, haja vista o considerável tamanho populacional desses Municípios, o significativo fluxo de riqueza expresso pelo PIB e a expressiva riqueza da comunidade representada pelo valor das propriedades. Acredita-se que esse estudo tenha contribuído para uma reflexão da dívida pública, apresentando uma metodologia que auxilie no avanço de estudos nessa área. / With the promulgation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) some rules for fiscal discipline were set in order to reduce the public deficit and stabilize the public debt relative to Gross National Product (GDP). These rules compound the hard budget constraint, highlighting the balanced-budget requirement, the legal limit of indebtedness, the allocation of debt for investments and indirect control of debt through the limit of personnel expenses. However, among these rules, managers of large municipalities in Brazil claim that the legal limit of indebtedness of 1.2 over the Net Current Revenue (NCR) set by the Senate is inadequate because it is unique for all local governments without giving special treatment to major municipalities that have sound differences in terms of population, income and revenue. In this context, it is extremely important to assess the fiscal performance of the debt of major Brazilian cities, focusing on the level of debt according to the potential resources of local governments and budget constraints imposed by the FRL. So, this thesis has as principal purpose to measure and explain the performance of the debt level of the major Brazilian municipalities in terms of potential resources and mechanisms of budget constraints. To do that, we considered in the study all the larger municipalities over 500,000 inhabitants. In order to measure the performance of the debt level we used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in a panel of data, called Dynamic DEA DSBM (Slacks Based Dynamic Model) with data from 2000 to 2008, considering the debt level as input, the primary result as carryover variable and as output variables that represent the potential resources of the City: GDP, property values and population size. The performance of the debt level achieved using DEA DSBM was explained by the rules of fiscal discipline using GEE regression (Generalized Estimating Equations). The results did not reject the hypothesis that the limit of personnel expenses and the allocation of debt for investments are responsible for ensuring the performance of the debt level of the major Brazilian municipalities. The results rejected the hypothesis of the current balanced budget to positively influence the performance of debt, however, considering that to obey this rule it\'s necessary to observe the further rules tested, we confirmed the thesis that the mechanisms of budget constraints cause positive effects on the debt level of large Brazilian municipalities. These findings intensified the efficacy of the FRL in the control of public debt. On the other hand, the data revealed that voluntary transfers, which represent implicit financial aid, act as a counterforce to the performance level of debt, weakening the budget constraints, as predicted by the hypothesis of soft budget constraint. Considering the importance of the fiscal rule of debt limit in the context of hard budget constraints mechanism, this study investigated whether the limit set by the Senate reflects the potential resources of the major Brazilian cities. The results showed, contrary to the expectations, that the legal limit is quite high for large municipalities, except for São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, because the debt capacity of these municipalities, according to its potential resources, leads to an average limit of 0.35 of the NCR. However, for the municipalities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro the legal limit should be much larger than that established by the Senate, respectively, 1.84 and 1.64 of the NCR, because of the considerable size of population, the significant flow of wealth expressed by the GDP and the considerable wealth of the community represented by the property values. We believed this study has contributed to a reflection of the public debt and introducing a methodology to assist in the progress of studies in this area.

In my first chapter I follow the methodology put forth by Bohn(1998), the market-based sustainability method to measure whether the sovereign debt is sustainable or not. I work with a panel of 125 countries for 26 years and along with incorporate different institutions ratings by ICRG’s political risk ratings. In my analysis I find out that the debt on average is sustainable for countries up to certain extent and thus giving us an inverted U shape debt-exports curve. I use country exports to find out if the debt is sustainable or not. I also find that better institutions do give an edge to countries when it comes to borrowing as it lowers the risk expectations on the lenders part. The findings do vary based on the country’s income level and based on its geographical location.

Context: In an era where every industry is impacted by software, it is vital to keep software costs under control for organizations to be competitive. A key factor contributing to software costs is software maintenance where a significant proportion is utilized to deal with different types of technical debt. Technical debt is a metaphor used to describe the cost of taking shortcuts or sub-optimal design and implementation that compromises the software quality. Similar to financial debt, technical debt needs to be paid off in the future. Objective: To be in control of technical debt related costs, organizations need to identify technical debt types and quantify them to introduce solutions and prioritize repayment strategies. However, the invisible nature of technical debt makes its identification challenging in practice. Our aim is to find pragmatic ways to identify technical debt in practice, that can be supported by evidence. Once technical debt types that are significant have been identified, we aim to propose suggestions to mitigate them. Method: We used design science as a methodological framework to iteratively improve the technical debt identification methods. We utilized bug reports, which are artifacts produced by software engineers during the development and operation of the software system  as the data source for technical debt identification. Software defects reported through bug reports are considered as one of the key external quality attributes of a software system  which supports us in our evidence based approach. Throughout the design science iterations, we used the following research methods: case study and sample study. Results: We produced three design artifacts that support technical debt identification. The first artifact is a systematic process to identify architectural technical debt from bug reports. The second is an automated bug analysis and a visualization tool to support our research as well as to support practitioners to identify components with hot spots in relation to the number of defects. The third is a method for identifying documentation debt from bug reports. Conclusion: Based on the findings from this thesis, we demonstrated that bug reports can be utilized as a data source to identify technical debt in practice by identifying two types of technical debt; architectural technical debt and documentation debt. Compared to the identification of documentation debt, architectural technical debt identification still remains challenging due to the abstract nature of the architecture and its boundaries. Therefore, our future work will focus on evaluating the impact of reducing the sources of documentation debt on the frequency of bug reports and overall project cost.

The technical debt field covers an critical problem of software engineering, and this is one of the reasons why this field has received significant attention in recent years. The technical debt metaphor helps developers to think about, and to monitor software quality. The metaphor refers to flaws in software (usually caused by shortcuts to save time) that may affect future maintenance and evolution. It was created by Cunningham to improve the quality of software delivery. Many times the technical debt items are unknown, unmonitored and therefore not managed, thus resulting in high maintenance costs throughout the software life-cycle. We conducted an empirical study in an academic environment, during two offerings of a laboratory course on Extreme Programming (XP Lab) at University of São Paulo and in two Brazilian Software Companies (Company A and B). We analyzed thirteen teams, nine in the Academy and four in the Companies environment. The teams had a comprehensive lecture about technical debt and several ways to identify and manage technical debt were presented. We monitored the teams, performed interviews, did close observations and collected feedback. The obtained results show that the awareness of technical debt influences team behavior. Team members report thinking and discussing more on software quality after becoming aware of technical debt in their projects. We identified some impacts on the teams and the projects after having considered technical debt. A conceptual model for technical debt management was created including ways of how identifying, monitoring, categorizing, measuring, prioritizing, and paying off the technical debt. A few approaches and techniques for the technical debt management, identification, monitoring, measure, and payment are also suggested. / A metáfora de dívida técnica engloba um importante problema da engenharia de software e essa é uma das razões pelas quais este campo tem recebido uma grande atenção nos últimos anos. Essa metáfora auxilia os desenvolvedores de software a refletirem sobre e a monitorarem a qualidade de software. A metáfora se refere a falhas no software (geralmente causadas por atalhos para economizar tempo) que podem afetar a futura manutenção e evolução do mesmo. A metáfora foi criada por Cunningham com o objetivo de melhorar a qualidade das entregas de software. Muitas vezes as dívidas técnicas não são conhecidas, monitoradas e nem geridas, resultando em um alto custo de manutenção ao longo do ciclo de vida do software. Logo, conduziu-se um estudo empírico na academia, durante duas ofertas da disciplina de Programação Extrema (XP Lab) na Universidade de São Paulo e em duas empresas Brasileiras de desenvolvimento de software (Empresa A e B). Foram analisados treze times, sendo nove na academia e quatro nas empresas. Os times tiveram uma apresentação sobre dívida técnica e foram apresentadas algumas sugestões de abordagens para gerir dívida técnica. Monitorou-se os times, foram realizadas entrevistas, observações fechadas e informações foram coletadas. Os resultados mostraram que considerar dívida técnica influenciou o comportamento dos times. Eles reportaram que após considerar dívida técnica passaram a refletir e discutir mais a qualidade do software. Identificou-se alguns impactos nos times e nos projetos depois de considerarem dívida técnica. Um modelo conceitual para gestão de dívida técnica foi criado, incluindo formas, técnicas e abordagens de como identificar, monitorar, categorizar, medir, priorizar e pagar os itens de dívida técnica.

The technical debt field covers an critical problem of software engineering, and this is one of the reasons why this field has received significant attention in recent years. The technical debt metaphor helps developers to think about, and to monitor software quality. The metaphor refers to flaws in software (usually caused by shortcuts to save time) that may affect future maintenance and evolution. It was created by Cunningham to improve the quality of software delivery. Many times the technical debt items are unknown, unmonitored and therefore not managed, thus resulting in high maintenance costs throughout the software life-cycle. We conducted an empirical study in an academic environment, during two offerings of a laboratory course on Extreme Programming (XP Lab) at University of São Paulo and in two Brazilian Software Companies (Company A and B). We analyzed thirteen teams, nine in the Academy and four in the Companies environment. The teams had a comprehensive lecture about technical debt and several ways to identify and manage technical debt were presented. We monitored the teams, performed interviews, did close observations and collected feedback. The obtained results show that the awareness of technical debt influences team behavior. Team members report thinking and discussing more on software quality after becoming aware of technical debt in their projects. We identified some impacts on the teams and the projects after having considered technical debt. A conceptual model for technical debt management was created including ways of how identifying, monitoring, categorizing, measuring, prioritizing, and paying off the technical debt. A few approaches and techniques for the technical debt management, identification, monitoring, measure, and payment are also suggested. / A metáfora de dívida técnica engloba um importante problema da engenharia de software e essa é uma das razões pelas quais este campo tem recebido uma grande atenção nos últimos anos. Essa metáfora auxilia os desenvolvedores de software a refletirem sobre e a monitorarem a qualidade de software. A metáfora se refere a falhas no software (geralmente causadas por atalhos para economizar tempo) que podem afetar a futura manutenção e evolução do mesmo. A metáfora foi criada por Cunningham com o objetivo de melhorar a qualidade das entregas de software. Muitas vezes as dívidas técnicas não são conhecidas, monitoradas e nem geridas, resultando em um alto custo de manutenção ao longo do ciclo de vida do software. Logo, conduziu-se um estudo empírico na academia, durante duas ofertas da disciplina de Programação Extrema (XP Lab) na Universidade de São Paulo e em duas empresas Brasileiras de desenvolvimento de software (Empresa A e B). Foram analisados treze times, sendo nove na academia e quatro nas empresas. Os times tiveram uma apresentação sobre dívida técnica e foram apresentadas algumas sugestões de abordagens para gerir dívida técnica. Monitorou-se os times, foram realizadas entrevistas, observações fechadas e informações foram coletadas. Os resultados mostraram que considerar dívida técnica influenciou o comportamento dos times. Eles reportaram que após considerar dívida técnica passaram a refletir e discutir mais a qualidade do software. Identificou-se alguns impactos nos times e nos projetos depois de considerarem dívida técnica. Um modelo conceitual para gestão de dívida técnica foi criado, incluindo formas, técnicas e abordagens de como identificar, monitorar, categorizar, medir, priorizar e pagar os itens de dívida técnica.

Tyrimo objektas – valstybės skola. Tyrimo tikslas – įvertinus Lietuvos valstybės skolą, ištirti jos poveikį socialinėms išlaidoms. Uždaviniai: 1. Pateikti valstybės skolos sampratą bei valstybės skolinimosi poreikį sąlygojančius veiksnius. 2. Apibrėžti valstybės skolos naštą ir skolinimosi reikšmę ekonomikai. 3. Pateikti valstybės skolos vertinimo kriterijus. 4. Įvertinti Lietuvos valstybės skolą tarp ES valstybių pagal išskirtus vertinimo kriterijus. 5. Nustatyti Lietuvos valstybės skolos poveikį socialinėms išlaidoms bei palyginti jį su kitomis ES šalimis. Tyrimo metodika. Valstybės skolos sampratai bei valstybės skolinimosi poreikio nustatymui naudoti bendramoksliniai tyrimo metodai – mokslinės literatūros bei teisinių dokumentų analizė ir sintezė. Atliekant Lietuvos valstybės skolos analizę – statistinių duomenų rinkimo bei analizės metodai, palyginimo, grafinio vaizdavimo būdai, loginė analizė ir sintezė. Pritaikius regresinę analizę nustatytas Lietuvos valstybės skolos poveikis socialinėms išlaidoms. Lyginamosios analizės dėka šis poveikis įvertintas Europos Sąjungos šalių kontekste. Tyrimo rezultatai. Pirmojoje darbo dalyje pateikta valstybės skolos samprata, valstybės skolinimosi poreikį sąlygojantys veiksniai, skolinimosi reikšmė ekonomikai, išanalizuoti ir susisteminti skolos naštos modeliai. Antrojoje darbo dalyje, išanalizavus įvairių mokslininkų darbus, pateikti valstybės skolos vertinimo kriterijai, nustatyta valstybės skolos sudėties svarba, pateiktas... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Object of the research – public debt. Aim of the research – to evaluate the Lithuanian public debt, to assess its influence on social expenditure. Objectives of the research: 1. to present the concept of public debt and to discuss the factors, which influence government borrowing needs; 2. to define the debt burden and to determine the effect of public debt on economy; 3. to provide the public debt evaluation criteria; 4. to evaluate the Lithuanian public debt in respect to the situation in the EU countries according to the identified criteria; 5. to determine the impact of the Lithuanian public debt on social expenditure and to compare it with that in other EU countries. Research methods. Analysis and synthesis of scientific literature and legal documents, statistical data collection and analysis methods, comparative analysis, graphical representation techniques, logical analysis, regression analysis. Research results. Part One introduces the concept of public debt, analyzes the factors influencing government borrowing needs, importance of borrowing to economy and structured models of debt burden. Part Two, having analyzed various scientific articles, provides criteria of the public debt evaluation, reasons importance of the public debt composition and presents the assessment model of the impact of public debt on social expenditure. Part Three gives structural and dynamic analysis of the Lithuanian public debt, evaluates the amount of public debt, according to the... [to full text]